And just like that, we are officially one pre-season game into the 2023 NFL Season. For sports bettors - the next 48 games are about dodging landmines and early season injuries. We’ve already had a huge scare with Joe Burrow, which leads us to a philosophy we use for punching in pre-season futures. Not saying it's right, but just something we like to follow. If you are going to take a teams under, go ahead and punch it in now. If you are going to take a teams over, wait till pre-season is completed. Of course you could make the CLV (closing line value) argument against this “strategy”, and you wouldn’t be wrong. We just typically error on the side of caution and like to wait till we are free and clear of an early injury that kills our bet before the season even starts. Just our way of looking at it, but to each their own.
Two more divisions coming at you this week, and they are the worst of the bunch. So let’s sift through the filth.
We know some of you guys and gals are big on at least looking at the gambling splits. There are a million ways to handicap a game, so we aren’t here to tell you this is necessary for gambling. We personally like to understand where the money is coming in just as a point of reference. Currently VSIN is charging $20/month for access to their data ($240 for the year). We reached out and got a promo code just before football starts to knock $40 off the annual price tag. Just go to vsin.com/subscribe/, choose the middle $240 annual subscription option and then enter in:
PROMO CODE: DEGEN
NFC South:
Divisions played: NFC North, AFC South
Odds to win division:
Saints +130
Falcons +210
Panthers +360
Buccaneers +750
Atlanta Falcons
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +5500
This was one of our favorite nuggets from the Warren Sharp preview, so we will quote it directly “Out of 47 qualifying QBs last year, Mariota and Ridder, ranked 45th and 46th in accuracy**. Combined, they propelled the Falcons to a dead-last ranking in accuracy”.
With Ridder returning as the starting QB, it’s hard to be fully in love with this Flacons offense. In addition to the lack of accuracy at quarterback, they also had one of the worst pass rushes and one of the worst secondaries last year. Surely, having the #6 overall pick they did something to address these gaping holes? Not quite… the Falcons had the best rushing offense last year, so naturally they went with RB Bijan Robinson (Texas) with their first pick. That’s their 3rd straight year taking a skill position player with their first rounder, all of which were top 10 picks (2021 - Kyle Pitts #4; 2022 - Drake London #8). Adding a ton of ammo, but do they have a gun?
Head coach Arthur Smith didn’t get enough credit last year because on paper it wasn’t anything special. Their win total was set at five and they exceeded it by winning seven games. Good? Yes. Impressive? Not really. Now what if we told you the Falcons only lost two games last year by double digits (only the Bills and Chiefs were “in” more games). It becomes a little more impressive, right? Here’s where it gets really good. “The Falcons were paying much more on dead cap players ($84M) not on their team, than they spent on offense ($64M) or defense ($48).” - @SharpFootball. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones contract’s decimated any chance they had at being competitive in 2022, but they were still able to play damn near all their opponents close, which says a lot about their head coach.
Arthur Smith might be a fantastic coach and people don’t recognize it yet. Going after Bijan was certainly a reach, but Smith came from the Titans and he knew how to get the most out of Derrick Henry. Can’t say we agree with it, but we are starting to see what he’s trying to build in Atlanta. What we also like about the Flacons is how they addressed the defense this offseason. Atlanta went from the 30th most expensive Defense last year to the 12th this season, signing guys such as Jessie Bates (Bengals), Bud Dupree (Steelers), Jeff Okudah (Lions), Calais Campbell (Ravens) and other solid players to strengthen the other side of the ball.
The Degenerate is a bit split on this division. Dino is going Falcons, simply as a way to hopefully get on the Arthur Smith train early. That, and they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL.
**Zak Wilson was 47/47
Best Bet:
Falcons Over 8.5 Wins -122 (Dino)
Carolina Panthers
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +6000
The Frank Reich era begins in Charlotte. If you ask us - the Panthers are getting a hell of a coach to pair with #1 overall draft pick Bryce Young, and the future is bright.
After refusing to draft a QB for years, the Panthers are moving forward with a new strategy. Their 2020 Teddy Bridgewater plan didn’t work out. The 2021 Sam Darnold attempt failed miserably. 2022 Baker Mayfield was brief, but terrible.
Reich lived what probably felt like a lifetime in Indianapolis as the Head Coach where they followed a similar strategy. Four different starters, for four years in a row after Andrew Luck’s premature and shocking retirement. He and David Tepper (Panthers owner) appeared to have no interest in grooming young QB’s.
You can be confident ownership and the head coach are fully in sync with the plan to move forward with Bryce Young. The last time Reich got a rookie QB he was in Philadelphia as the OC and went 7-9 with Carson Wentz. The following year the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Granted it was Foles that finished the job, but Wentz was having an MVP type season before his injury. Certainly a reason for a little optimism, just maybe not right out of the gate.
Frank Reich has historically not gotten off to great starts. In weeks 1-5 he’s got a 10-14-1 record since 2020. The Panthers have 4 of their first 6 games on the road before the BYE week. After that, they have the #2 easiest schedule.
The Panthers could have a sneaky top 10 defense and a very strong offensive line. The foundation is there. They are obviously lacking experience at the QB position, and talent at the skill positions after DJ Moore and CMC left. The lack of big names on offense makes them an intriguing team to follow week to week, as you can be sure public bettors will have a tendency to overlook them. We do like some of the signings on offense, as they brought in vets with experience (Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, Andy Dalton). Sure, Miles Sanders benefited from the Eagles elite offense last season, but he posted great numbers and now gets a fresh start in Carolina. I (Degen) expect the offense to include him a lot to help take some pressure off Young.
Best Bet:
Potential for in season Over - likely following Week 8 BYE (Dino)
Panthers Under 7.5 Wins -102 (Steak)
Miles Sanders OVER 900.5 Rushing Yards (Degen)
New Orleans Saints
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +4000
Vanilla pudding doppelgänger Dennis Allen enters his second year with the New Orleans Saints. Not sure if we could point to a more boring coach in the NFL. He may not be bad, but boy is he bland. Drew Brees retired, Sean Payton left, and the Saints entered an entirely new world last year with Allen leading the way. An order of Jameis Winston with a splash of Andy Dalton sounds like an awful recipe, but it wasn’t a total failure.
Enter Derek Carr. Say what you want about the guy talent wise, but we think he’s a good dude and even better teammate. The adversity his Raiders team faced the year John Gruden got fired was enough to ruin a season. Yet, the Derek Carr led Raiders made a playoff push and took the Bengals (then AFC Champs) down to the last possession, on the road, in the Playoffs. We think that says a lot of about Derek Carr’s capability to lead a team. Now, he’s got a chip on his shoulder as the franchise that drafted him has decided to move on.
A red flag for the Saints, besides the pending Kamara suspension and Michael Thomas decaying at 10x speed, is their weakness in the trenches. They hope to resolve the issues on defense with two top 40 picks, Bryan Bresee (Clemson) and Isaiah Foskey (Irish), up front.
New Orleans has the easiest schedule in the NFL, but that’s a bit skewed because they play in the worst division Nevertheless, it’s certainly a reason this team is favored in 9 games. Carr is a QB capable of putting together a winning season, but we just aren’t sure Dennis Allen and OC Pete Carmichael are. After having statistically one of the worst seasons of his career, it’s hard for Carr to get much worse, but there are just too many question marks on this roster and on this coaching staff to go all in. We thought about hammering the win total over, but instead going to play it light.
Best Bets:
Saints to win division +130 (Degen + Steak)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +7500
The Buccaneers say goodbye to the best quarterback to ever step onto the gridiron and hello to Baker Mayfield. Rough. Kyle Trask is waiting in the wings if/when Baker finds his way to the bench, but there’s no reason to be excited about that. Yes, the sunny days on the Gulf Coast have come to an end.
Todd Bowles enters year two with the largest dead cap in the NFL as the Buccaneers are burning $75M. They aren’t favored in a single game, and are the only team in a bad division that doesn’t have at top 5 schedule to fall back on. Not great! Games against the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles could get really ugly. On top of that they get the raw end of the deal in terms of scheduling - playing first year starter/rookie qbs late in the season after they’ve had time to develop, and beginning their season with veterans.
The Bucs still have a respectable defense (although Devin White requested a trade), but the offense is a strong candidate for the worst in the NFL. Below average O-line, terrible at QB, bad at RB. Mike Evans is cool, but he’s also turning 30. Tampa Bay was the place to be for veteran free agents chasing a ring, but now that Brady left, the Bucs could be in a bad place for a long time. As much as Brady looked to be at the end of his rope last year he was still #1 in the NFL at avoiding sacks. Baker was #72. Dark dark days coming in Tampa.
Best Bet:
Under 6.5 Wins -142 (Dino)
Under Alt 4.5 Wins +200 (Degen)
AFC South
Divisions Played: AFC North, NFC South
Odds to win division:
Jaguars - 155
Titans +310
Colts +550
Texans +1000
Houston Texans
2022 Record: 3-13-1
2023 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +18000
The Texans enter 2023 with their fifth head coach in four years. Not a plan for success, which is probably why they’ve had ten wins total over the last three seasons. Their last few hires have been destined to fail, all of which being of retirement age when they stepped into the role. But DeMeco Ryan (SF) is different. This was a hire that actually makes sense and is focused on the future. Someone the franchise actually plans to keep around longer than one season. Ryan brings in the passing coordinator from the 49ers, Bobby Slowik, as OC. We’re not going to pretend like we know a god damn thing about this guy, but he has been under Kyle Shanahan since 2017, and that doesn’t hurt.
By their own stupidity and Lovie Smith grasping at straws in Week 18, this team missed out on the #1 pick. Time will tell if this was a stroke of luck or a generational blunder.
With a gut renovation of the coaching staff and the offense, it’s really difficult to speculate where this team will land based on prior performance. Although, a win total of 6.5 after 3 consecutive seasons of 4 wins or worse can be a slight note of optimism.
We think they used their top draft picks well, as the Texans hope that CJ Stroud (Ohio State) and William Anderson Jr. (Bama) can lead the offense and defense for years to come. Running back Dameon Pierce looks to build on a strong rookie year and John Mitchee III (Bama) will make his NFL debut after a leukemia diagnosis in 2022, and an ACL tear in the 2021 SEC Championship game. This team is stacked with sexy young talent and we are excited to buy some stock.
Best Bets:
Texans Over 6.5 +115
Texans Win Division +1000 (Dino)
CJ Stroud OROY +700
Indianapolis Colts
2022 Record: 4-12-1
2023 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +10000
Every little kid in town knows the story. Your aging pup (let’s call him Fido) starts to break down, so Mommy and Daddy take him out to a farm to live his best days in peace. Spoiler alert…Fido was dead and the farm never existed. In this case Fido isn’t a dog, it’s Philip Rivers/Carson Wentz/Matt Ryan and the farm is Indianapolis. Similar to the Panthers, the Colts have tried the bandaid approach at QB for several years, only for it to end in disappointment year over year over year.
Now, Shane Sheichen (OC Philly) steps in as head coach to mold the raw block of talent that is Anthony Richardson (UF) into a quality NFL quarterback. Richardson will have a ton of help in emerging WR Michael Pittman and super-star RB Jonathan Taylor…
Actually… not sure what’s going on with Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis right now, but sure doesn’t sound good! Taylor or no Taylor, we aren’t looking to put some money on this teams win total one way or another.
The defense is strong upfront, but has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. This can lead to some big plays for opponents, which means high scoring games, which means Richardson will be forced to make plays - and when he does he defaults to his legs. And now you’re telling us Taylor might sit out…
Best Bet:
Most QB Rushing Yards - Anthony Richardson +400 (Dino)
Colts Win Total Under 6.5 -104 (Steak)
Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2800
It’s really hard to comprehend just how bad the Urban Meyer experiment was. The Jaguars scored 10 more points per game under Peterson than Meyer. Trevor Lawerence led the league in interceptions under Urban Meyer and won the division and a playoff game under Doug Peterson. His touchdowns doubled and his interceptions got cut in half. You get the point - night and day.
2022 wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows though. The Jaguars started 3-7, then went 6-1 after their BYE. It was a year of resurgence for the Jaguars. They had one of the biggest comebacks in NFL postseason history over the Chargers and things are looking up. Their franchise quarterback has a ton of promise. If Trevor Lawerence gets any prettier Urban will start showing up post game interviews and make him sit on his lap.
The Jaguars are one of the trendiest teams this year, something that immediately makes our spidey-senses tingle with an opportunity to fade. Calvin Ridley returns from his gambling suspension, Evan Engram is making one-handed grabs in camp, Etienne is primed to have a huge year. What could go wrong? As contrarians we can’t help but hear all of this positive new and try to find the negatives. So here they are:
This year the Jags make NFL history by playing back to back games in London, Week 5 and 6. Spending this much time overseas without a BYE to follow, it has the potential to really disrupt their rhythm early in the year.
The defense is weak, the offensive line is weaker. They’ve got a ton of sex appeal and are positioned to take the next big step, but we just aren’t buying it, yet.
Best Bet:
Trevor Lawrence Playmate of the Year +650 (kidding!)
No bet
Tennessee Titans
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +6000
Last year Derrick Henry finally looked human. Suffering his first significant injury the grown ass man is approaching his 30th Birthday and his 2,000 career carry. If the focal point of the Titans offense goes down again, it could get really bad in Tennessee.
Ryan Tannehill will likely be Week 1 starter but his time will be limited until Will Levis shows he’s ready. They also have Malik Willis on the depth chart who (this is hilarious) reportedly is “looking much better than last year in camp, but still likely to be cut”. Getting rid of AJ Brown will continue haunt them. Signing DHop could move the needle for a weak WR core, but it might be too little too late. They don’t have a great O-Line, but they added some pieces and it should be an area of improvement from last year.
There aren’t many positives in Tennessee. On top of the offensive struggles, the defense is mediocre at best. They went 0-9 against playoff teams in 2022. Their win total is 7.5 in the lowly AFC South after competing for the division last year.
Despite last years failure they were close to being much better, but had a ton of 2nd half/4th quarter collapses:
They went 7-10 but they lead 11 games going into the 4th quarter
They had a -54 point differential in the 4th quarter
Nearly 50% of all 2nd half drives were 3 and outs
All signs point to fading the Titans this year. BUT…we love Vrabel. How could you not? We believe in him. We remember that he almost beat the Jaguars in Week 18 to win the division with a decimated roster. It was going to happen, until Joshua Dobbs (3rd string QB) fumbled with 3 min left in the game and it got returned for TD. This pick is not for the faint of heart, and it’s the Steak special.
Best Bet:
Titans to win division +310 (Steak)
Titans Win Total Over 7.5 -106 (Steak)
Taking a bit of a breather from the NFL next week as we pivot to some College Football.
RECAP
Falcons Over 8.5 Wins -122 (Dino)
Panthers Under 7.5 Wins -102 (Steak)
Miles Sanders OVER 900.5 Rushing Yards (Degen)
Saints to win division +130 (Degen + Steak)
Under 6.5 Wins -142 (Dino)
Texans Over 6.5 +115
Texans Win Division +1000 (Dino)
CJ Stroud OROY +700
Most QB Rushing Yards - Anthony Richardson +400 (Dino)
Colts Win Total Under 6.5 -104 (Steak)
Titans to win division +310 (Steak)
Titans Win Total Over 7.5 -106 (Steak)