Do you smell that? It’s the ever so faint hint of pigskin in the air. Teams have reported to camp and the first pre-season game is less than a week away. Yes, it still feels like an eternity, but the the season kicks off with Lions at Chiefs in (checks calendar) 42 days! Over the next few weeks we’ll be sharing where our heads are at for the upcoming NFL and College Football seasons along with the future bets we’ll be placing along the way.
Quick note before jumping in - we do our best to give credit where it’s due, and a lot of our analysis comes from Warren Sharp’s preseason guide. If you are a big data nerd then you’ll love it. **Not a paid promo, but we wouldn’t mind a paid promo - so if you buy it because of us, feel free DM him and let him know!**
For NFL we’ll keep it to two division a week and include the AFC/NFC divisions that are playing against each other. With that, let’s dive right in with the NFC West and AFC North. You’ll see some bets from Degen, Dino, and Steak throughout, but our strongest leans will be more of a consensus outlook.
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NFC West:
Divisions played: AFC North, NFC East
Odds to win division:
49ers -160
Seahawks +195
Rams +1000
Cardinals +2700
Arizona Cardinals
2022 Record: 4-13
2023 Win Total: 4.5
SB Odds: +18000
Taking Drake’s advice and starting from the bottom - we lead with lowest win total entering the 2023 season. At a gruesome 4.5 wins, Vegas is confirming everyones suspicion that the Cardinals should be the worst team in the NFL. Pretty boy King Kliffsbury once again crumbled for the Cardinals in 2022 and in walks an entirely new coaching staff lead by former Eagles DC, Jonathan Gannon.
The story of the Cardinals is uniquely tragic. This was supposed to be their year. This was their window for a championship run. All the contracts lined up. But alas, an injured Kyler, a departed DHop, losing their top 3 pass rushers, and the 10th hardest schedule are compounding problems that lead to Arizona not being favored in a single game this year. The cherry on top… they don’t get a BYE till week 14. Just an ugly roll of the dice and minimal positives to report on in the desert.
Now, we could play it safe here and go with the Under 4.5 Wins (-110), but why not get real nasty with the nastiest girl at the dance?
Best Bet:
Arizona Cardinal Under 1.5 +700
Los Angeles Rams
2022 Record: 5-12
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +6500
From Super Bowl Champions in 2021, to a 12 loss season in 2022. What a difference a year makes. You can’t blame the Rams for selling out and going all in for the Super Bowl, especially since it worked out. But now we enter the aftermath era. An era where they just drafted 14 players, zero of them in the 1st round. An era with an injury prone quarterback and a terrible offensive line. An era with one of the best defensive players in the history of the NFL, but a surrounding defense that could be the worst in the league. This team still has some studs, but they are few and far between and overall the roster has lost a ton talent from that 2021 Championship run.
Of course you could look back and point to the laundry list of injuries that lead to the Rams downfall in 2022. But they were bad before Stafford went down. McVay has never had to perform with limited talent, and last year the Rams went 0-8 against teams with a winning record.
No touch at best for us as a team, but Steak does have a lean on Kupp. You’d have to think this Rams team, who’s only favored in 2 games all season, will be playing from behind. It’s quite obvious Stafford loves targeting Kupp - and we doubt that you’re teaching this old dog any new tricks.
Best Bet:
Kupp +900 lead league in receiving (Jake)
San Francisco 49ers
2022 Record: 13-4
2023 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1000
If this is your first time reading the Degenerate, there is one thing you are going to pick up on quick - we love Kyle Shanahan. L! O! V! E! Seriously, the man consistently makes the most out of a quarterback regardless of the situation. Maybe Brock Purdy is that guy (he’s not), but it was amazing the 49ers got all the way to the NFC Championship with a 3rd string QB. We’re pretty confident that you couldn’t say that about any other coach/team in the NFL. Hell, look at Belichick since Brady left. Shit isn’t easy.
This is all very important because this year the 49ers are loaded:
Phenomenal weapons (CMC, Deebo, Kittle and plenty of depth)
Strong O-Line
Elite defense - added Javon Hargrave (PHI) to an already stellar unit.
Not only that, but they have the 5th easiest schedule in the league. San Fran traded for CMC midseason last year, and didn’t lose a game after acquiring him. He had 5.7 yards per touch - 2nd most in the league for RB’s. Now Shanahan has an entire offseason to scheme and design plays for one of (if not the most) elite offensive weapons in the league. That’s terrifying.
The only question, and it’s a doozy, is can any of their quarterbacks lead the charge? The tripod of Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold all have their doubters, and rightfully so. But we are all of the opinion that: In Shanahan We Trust!
Best Bets:
NFC West -160
NFC +400
CMC OPOY +900 (Degen)
Seattle Seahawks
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +3500
Geno Smith, the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year. Absolutely no one saw it coming. A longtime friend of The Degenerate (@drewhoyler) hit us with a great reason to not fade the Seahawks last year. “Do you really thing Pete Carroll is coming back at 70 years old to win 5 games?” He was dead on. Seattle went on to have one of the most impressive seasons last year, making the playoffs despite all the doubts.
You could make an argument that the Seahawks had the best draft in the NFL.
Round 1, Pick 5: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Round 1, Pick 20: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Round 2, Pick 37: OLB Derick Hall, Auburn
Round 2, Pick 52: RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
Step one of rebuild was shedding Russ. Step two is infusing the roster with a ton of top talent from the Broncos draft picks. The plan is well underway.
So… Geno Smith, what are you going to do for an encore? How are you going to perform when expectations are high? After proving all the doubters wrong last year, we don’t think anyone is lining up to fade Seattle this year and that’s where we think you can find a bit of value. Let’s look at an interesting nugget from the 2022 season, shall we? Last year the Seahawks started the year 6-3 and finished 3-5. It gets worse. The final three wins were against John Wolford (LAR), Mike White (NYJ), and Baker Mayfield (LAR) in OT. Everyone remembers Seattle making the playoffs, but it’s easy to forget that they limped their way down the stretch and were gifted a the #7 Seed with a Lions win over Green Bay in Week 18.
Best Bet:
Seahawks to MISS Playoffs +100
AFC North
Divisions Played: NFC West, AFC South
Odds to win division:
Bengals +130
Ravens +250
Browns +390
Steelers +470
Baltimore Ravens
2022 Record: 10-7
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1800
It’s about damn time!
Not only did Lamar get paid, but the Ravens went out and got him some weapons in OBJ and 1st rounder Zay Flowers (Boston College), not to mention Rashod Bateman returning from injury. Throw in a new Offensive Coordinator, Todd Monken (Georgia Bulldogs), and we have ourselves a MVP candidate! Fun Fact: Lamar Jackson is 45-15 as a starter and only lost 4 games by more than a TD in his career. He is that dude, and now he has the strongest supporting cast of his career.
If you wanted to find a weakness in Baltimore, you could point to the defensive line, which ranked bottom 10 last year in pressure. We’ ll take our chances that they get this issue resolved and right their wrongs. Even if they don’t, the offense should have enough fire power to make up for the shortcomings.
With addition comes subtraction, and that’s why I (Degen) will be fading Mark Andrews receiving yards. As we mentioned above, the Ravens finally surrounded Lamar with some weapons. I think Todd Monkens new offense will have the ball distributed a bit more, rather than force feeding Andrews. Not only that, but Isiah Likely showed he can be a force in the passing game as well. I think all this will result in Andrews getting less yards, although I would certainly not fade him in the touchdown category. I see him being more of a red-zone threat.
Last year the Ravens were a 99 yard fumble returned for a TD away from eliminating the Bengals in the Playoffs. With Tyler Huntley! Harbaugh knows ball. Elite coach, great QB. When you pair them together good things are bound to happen, everything else is just fuel to the fire.
Best Bets:
Win total OVER 10.5 -102
Lamar MVP +900
Mark Andrews Under 775.5 Yards -112 (Degen)
Cincinatti Bengals
2022 Record: 12-5
2023 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +1000
If you wanted a motif (google it, moron) for the Cincinnati Bengals in the Joe Burrow era it would be a nice bottle of red wine. Better as it ages. We’ve talked at length about how well their defense performs in the 2H, DC Lou Anarumo is one of the best in the NFL at in game adjustments. Not only that but last year the Bengals started the season 4-4 and finished 8-0 (only played 16 games because Demar Hamlin incident). As the game went on they got better. As the season went on they got stronger.
They added Orlando Brown (KC) to the offensive line and picked up perennial fantasy football sleeper Irv Smith Jr (MIN). This team is in win now mode and have proven they can win the big games late in the year, the only issue is that Burrow’s early success and high profile wide receivers doesn’t leave much value. There is absolutely no chance we are fading this squad, but we aren’t on the hype train either.
***Late Edit***
Obviously the news of Burrow being carted off yesterday changes everything here. Way too early to speculate, but it does sound like the injury is not too serious.
Best Bet:
Burrow Most Passing Yards +750 (Degen) — If healthy, of course.
Cleveland Browns
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2800
Not only do the Cleveland Browns have the most expensive offense in the NFL, they have a $20M buffer between them and 2nd place. A top tier offensive line, running back, and paying off Deshaun Watson sexual assault charges isn’t cheap (kidding!).
The Browns didn’t have much to work with in the draft, making their first pick in the third round. DC Jim Schwartz (TEN) joins the coaching staff and they added some beef to defense front, but lost key pieces of secondary.
The season really comes down to two simple questions:
DWat is only 27 years old, can he return to his former self?
Will we get 2020 Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski, or the Kevin Stefanski we have seen the last two years?
We are believers in DWat, but can’t say the same for Stefanski. Winning 8 games last year with Jacoby Brissett and a rusty Watson (don’t look that up on Urban Dictionary) there is no way we are looking to fade this Browns squad at 9.5 wins, but the thought of putting our hard earned money on this coach makes us cringe.
The start to the season is certainly not ideal. Playing all three divisional games in the first 4 weeks, and then a BYE in week 5 can set the tone early for a tough season, especially as they are still looking to integrate the new franchise QB. This team signals boom or bust to us and we’d prefer not to have a meaningful future on a Stefanski lead team.
Best Bet:
DWat MVP +4000
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4500
Trivia! Name the top three teams in the AFC over the last 3 years in wins.
Chiefs, Duh!
Bills? Bingo!
Ravens? Nah. Bengals? Wrong again. I give up, who?
The Pittsburgh Steelers, that’s who!
Starting the 2020 season at 11-0 skews the numbers a bit, but more importantly over the last 2 years with minimal expectations and question-mark at quarterback, the Steelers have still been able to put up back to back 9 win seasons. In fact, Pittsburgh has covered the spread at the 4th highest rate over the last decade (per @sharpfootball). Kudos to Mike Tomlin, and never forget that he went 8-8 with Mason Rudolph and Ducky Hodges.
We all know the story by now, 16 straight years without a losing season. One of the most impressive streaks in today’s NFL. The other side of the argument is that the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016. Although, we could point to some stats and signings (see below) that could align with a Steelers over, ultimately it’s going to be close and of minimal value. This team just isn’t where they need to be to make any sort of run.
They do have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and they don’t play a team off a BYE all year. But their divisional foes have Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson at the QB position. A fourth place finish in the AFC North is a very likely outcome. As much as the offensive line has improved, Matt Canada is still running the show on offense, and that is a problem. There are also some new faces on Defense, included a beyond washed up 33 year old Patrick Peterson.
Kenny Pickett showed enough as a rookie to say he might be the guy in Pittsburgh for the long haul as the Steelers started 2-6 and finished 7-2, but ultimately there just isn’t enough here to make a noteworthy wager, and Tomlin is too consistent of a winner to fade.
Best Bet:
Steelers Win total OVER 8.5 -150 (Dino - not a total homer bet, but its close)
Steelers to MISS Playoffs -155 (Steak & Degen)
Next week we’re coming at you with the “eat your vegetables” helping of NFL Futures. That’s right - NFC and AFC South. Nothing like the two worst division in football to get you hyped up!
Until then subscribe, share, and leave us some notes on things we got wrong.
RECAP
Arizona Cardinal Under 1.5 +700
Kupp +900 lead league in receiving (Jake)
49ers NFC West -160
49ers NFC +400
CMC OPOY +900 (Degen)
Seahawks to MISS Playoffs +100
Ravens Win total OVER 10.5 -102
Lamar MVP +900
Mark Andrews Under 775.5 Yards -112 (Degen)
Burrow Most Passing Yards +750 (Degen)
Deshaun Watson MVP +4000
Steelers Win total OVER 8.5 -150 (Dino)
Steelers to MISS Playoffs -155 (Steak & Degen)