Pre-season is in full swing, kickoff less than a month away.
Quick Recap of our Futures to date:
Atlanta: Not Touching; Kyle Pitts Offensive Rookie of the Year +800 Buffalo: Not Touching Carolina: Over 7.5 (-130) New England: Over 9.5 (-120) New Orleans: Under 9 (-115) OR Saint to Miss Playoffs (-115) New York Jets: Under 6 (-115) Miami: Over 9.5 Wins (+105), Jalen Phillips DROY (+600) Tampa Bay: NFC South Champs -200; Over 11.5 -160
Now lets get to the next round of teams:
AFC West
Opponents: AFC West (6 Games); AFC North (4 Games); NFC East (4 Games)
Chiefs – Super Bowl +400 - Total Wins 12.5 (-125)
No time for hangovers
Additional opponents: Buffalo, @Titans, Green Bay
Death. Taxes. Fading a team that lost the Super Bowl. These are guaranteed in life...right? WRONG. This year the Chiefs are the exception to this betting trend that we usually stay loyal to. The Bucs deserved that SB win, no doubt. But let’s be honest…that was some weird shit that happened to KC days before kickoff. Not to mention Mahomes losing his two left tackles. Don’t try to get cute - the Chiefs have turned the page and are not headed towards any slump. Pat is paid but not satisfied. You can bet your ass a team that’s +400 to win the ship AND their over being the highest in football AND juiced can only mean the Chiefs will probably crush their opponents. Vegas has them at nearly a touchdown favorite as the AVERAGE over opponents for the entirety of this year. They addressed their offensive line needs in free agency and the draft. CEH may have been the most over-hyped fantasy player in recent memory, but another year in Andy’s system and with some confidence, we expect him to blow up. The one concern we have as Chiefs backers is thinking the division as a whole has improved. The Chargers seem to be legit with Herbert, the Broncos improved their roster, and even the Raiders were a handful of plays away from sweeping the Chiefs last year. Just remember this - Andy Reid has gone over his win total in 8 consecutive seasons. More of the same here. I know it’s tempting to bet black after red has come in so many times, but we repeat: DON’T GET CUTE!
The Pick: Chiefs OVER 12.5
Raiders – Super Bowl +5500 – Total Wins 7 (-125)
Child’s Play 4: Chucky gets roasted
Additional opponents: Miami, @Colts, Bears
It’s very hard to get excited about the Raiders. They’re like an unfinished ice cream sundae. Carr is the vanilla scoop, Waller is the banana...but where the fuck is everything else?! They have no nuts, no whipped cream, no fudge, not a single sprinkle! We had high hopes for Henry Ruggs last year, but the Raiders do not know how to use their receivers. Agoholor had a nice season, but he’s now in New England. They’ve replaced him with John Brown and added Kenyan Drake to the backfield. Does that make it move? Hardly. We do have to give Derek Carr some credit - he continues to at least improve year over year. But the Raiders record is still nothing to be excited about. Since Gruden signed his 10 year/$100M deal to become the head coach, the Raiders are 19-29, and have yet to produce a winning season. If Chuckies seat isn’t hot this year, then we don’t know what is. He’s currently sitting at 10/1 odds to be the first coach fired. Gruden has actually done an okay job with the offense, but it doesn’t make up for the abysmal job he’s done with the defense. They have consistently been in the bottom of the league rankings. The worst part? The Raiders have burned more draft capital on their secondary than any other team over the last 5 years. He has and always will be terrible at evaluating talent. Sure, they’ve added a few pieces on defense, and hired a new coordinator (Gus Bradley), but they’ve also reshuffled their entire offensive line, which was a strong suit for them. The Raiders are up against one of the hardest schedules this year (3rd toughest). In a 17 game season, 7 is a really low number. With the over being juiced, we don’t see any value in backing or fading the Raiders here, but we will consider fading Gruden himself.
The Pick: Gruden first coach fired +1000
Chargers – Super Bowl +2800 – Total Wins 9.5 (-105)
HerBOOM or HerBUST?
Additional opponents: New England, @Texans, Vikings
Holy Herbert! Nobody and I mean nobody expected that from the 6th overall pick last year. Going into the 2020 NFL Draft, the talk was all about Burrow and Tua. The dropoff to Herbert was steep from most scouts, and even ourselves. Per the metrics, the only other QB better on the run last year was Aaron Rodgers. That was an historic performance for any rookie QB. So, now what? Repeat or regression? That’s the decision here if you are going to play the Chargers. Let’s look at both sides. If you’re a Chargers backer, you have to absolutely love them revamping their offensive line (drafted Slater in 1st round and signed the best center in FA), along with Derwin James and Bosa hopefully getting healthy and returning to the defense. Even more importantly, they have a completely new coaching staff. Anthony Lynn seemed like a nice guy, but nobody was worse at managing the game in it’s final minutes. The Chargers have lost 16 games by one possession in the last 2 years. That is just unfathomable. Especially with a somewhat talented roster. New coach Brandon Staley (former Rams DC) and OC Joe Lombardi (Saints QB coach) bring a lot of excitement in 2021. Now, for the bad - the defense lost a decent amount of contributors. Melvin Ingram, Casey Heyward and Denzel Perryman are all on new teams. Then there’s the inevitable sophomore slump from Herbert. Can this guy really repeat or exceed his performance last year? We at The Degenerate say no. It’s tough to do, but we are going contrarian here (shocker). The two most hyped teams coming into this year are WFT and the Chargers. Put them into a blender, and you’ve got yourself a public milkshake that does not bring these boys to the yard. For that reason alone, we are on the fade train. It’s tough to stomach, but it must be done.
The Pick - Chargers UNDER 9.5
Broncos – Super Bowl +2800 – Total Wins 8.5 (-130)
Pretend you care
Additional opponents: NY Jets, @Jaguars, Lions
It’s hard to really give that much of a fuck about Denver. I’d rather go to a Limp Bizkit concert with Tony Dungy than pay attention to this QB battle between Teddy B and Drew Lock. But let’s try to pretend we care for a minute. The Broncos suffered a TON of injuries last year, and also got hit hard by Covid. Who can forget the WR playing QB that led to being 18.5 point underdogs at home vs the Saints (and we bet them, ha!). Vic Fangio is going into his third year, and if things don’t work out, it could be his last. Having a stick of butter aka Pat Shurmur as his OC sure isn’t doing him any favors. Lock had some swag, no doubt, and he duped a lot of people ending the 2019 season with a 4-1 record. But we saw more than enough last year to know this guy is dogshit. Getting Teddy B was a good move, but not drafting a QB with the 8th pick in the draft? Dumb. Teddy is a covering machine, and as a sports bettor, we absolutely love him. However, he’s clearly limited from a talent perspective. Hard to be excited for this season if you’re a Broncos fan. We do expect the defense to improve, and the return of Sutton to the deep WR core COULD provide some excitement on offense. All that said...zero interest in making any sort of investment here. The only shot we’d take is Fangio, the first coach fired +750, but rather just add more money into Gruden at 10/1.
The Pick - PASS
NFC East
Opponents: NFC East (6 Games); AFC West (4 Games); NFC South (4 Games)
Cowboys - Super Bowl +2000 - Total Wins 9.5 (-110)
A Tale of Two Cities
Additional opponents: @New England, @Vikings, Cardinals
Dak is Back – and he’s the obvious pick for comeback player of the year (+175) and a sneaky play for MVP (+1300). Zeke is likely to fix his fumble woes and should be ready to feast. This WR core is as good as anybody. Early word from training camp is that CeeDee is the real deal and Amari Cooper, when healthy, is still one of the most talented guys in the league. Gallup and Jarwin are not getting enough respect in fantasy, and could both be a nice surprise. The O-Line was wrecked by injuries last year, but should be able to reestablish themselves as a solid unit. So what's not to like in Dallas? Ohh… that’s right... D! Fence! Dak was leading the Cowboys to over 30 points per game prior to his gruesome injury. But, even before he went down they were 2-3. With wins coming off a late on-side kick kerfuffle in Atlanta and a late FG lead by Andy Dalton to beat the Giants. This is despite being one of the highest scoring offenses (again, when Dak was healthy). Now, this dreadful defense should improve somewhat. Dan Quinn could be a nice buy low opportunity as a defensive coordinator, and they spent their first SIX picks in the draft on defensive guys. We are shorting the Cowboys this year and here’s the two main reasons. 1 - Mike McCarthy is a big fat dipshit loser. 2 - We LOVE to fade the team on Hard Knocks. The featured team has historically made the playoffs 37% of the time, and out of the last ten seasons only three teams went over .500. Not a sure thing, but definitely enough of a tread to follow. Especially when you consider the amount of egos in Dallas when a reality TV series comes to town.
The Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
Eagles - Super Bowl +5500 - 7 (+120)
Big bird fall hard
Additional opponents: @NY Jets, @Lions, 49ers
What an absolute disaster Philadelphia was last year. Going 1-7 after their bye week shouldn’t give anyone the impression that they are headed in any direction but straight down. The Philly Special seems like an eternity ago, even though the immediately constructed Doug Peterson/Nick Foles statue outside of the Linc isn’t even three years old. Quite literally no one suffered more injuries than the Eagles last year at offensive line, WR and TE. But alas, heads had to roll after another under-performing year as Philly is but a shell of their Super Bowl VII victory. Enter new head coach Nick Sirianni (former OC in Indy), who seems like a stretch hire for head coach especially when you consider he wasn’t even calling plays for the Colts. Not to mention he has sounded like a total dweeb in every presser thus far. Now to be a brief optimist - the Eagles have a lot of potential on offense. Jalen Hurts is taking over at QB, a healthy Miles Sanders at RB, and first round draft pick DeVonta Smith. But it's just that… potential. If you peek at the early Vegas lines for this year you’ll see Philly is only favored twice, and the first time doesn’t come till Week 15 (Home vs. WFT). They also don’t get a Bye till week 14. This play is simply reading the line Vegas is giving us. Only the Lions, Texans, Jags and Bengals have a worse win total going into 2021. Under is juiced at -150 and we are all over it.
The Pick: Eagles Under 7 (-150)
Football Team - Super Bowl +3500 - Total Wins 8.5 (-135)
The Magic is gone
Additional opponents: @Packers, @ Bills, Seahawks
Riverboat Ron enters his second season with this squad who seemingly has everything necessary to make a playoff push. Everything...except a quality quarterback. No matter the team or the situation - Ryan Fitzpatrick always seems to find a way to both simultaneously reinvent himself and enter a QB controversy. Every single time you count him out, he revitalizes his career and every time you think he’s the real deal, he fades away again. It’s clear at this moment he’s tapped for the Week 1 start, but don’t sleep on Taylor Heinicke to disrupt the order in Washington. Last year, no one swapped their starting QB more than Football Team (this name is so stupid) who made the swap 6 times. Despite all the injuries and overall flop of Dwayne Haskins, they were still able to win the NFC East and cover against Tampa Bay in the first round. This defense is good enough to win a handful of games no matter who’s on offense. Chase Young is well on his way to becoming a must watch player, and is worth some pizza money at +1600 for defensive player of the year. Our lean on this one is towards the under. Last year Washington had one of the easiest schedules, and in 2021 they will have one of the most difficult. A season with Fitzmagic is far from smooth sailing, and if you want to pin-point when this season might fall off the rails, it will be starting in week six. Over a four game stretch they’ll play– Chiefs, @GB, @Den, TB. Listen for the Heinicke whispers to start around this time and the wheels to fall off shortly after. The Football Team over is one of the biggest public plays, and for that we must fade.
The Pick: Under 8.5(+105), Chase Young DPOY +1600
Giants - Super Bowl +5500 - Total Wins 7.5 (-130)
And now, we throw a dart
Additional opponents: @Dolphins, @Bears, Rams
Good god does this division suck. It’s the third year for Danny Dimes and time to either step up or sit down. There’s not much to be excited about as the Jason Garrett led offense returns with a highly questionable quarterback and an atrocious offensive line, but there is a slight reason for hope with the Giants. They have Saq returning from injury and signed Kenny Golladay in the offseason. 1st round draft pick Kadarius Toney could provide a bit of a spark to the return game as well as to the offense. We certainly can’t say we love this team, but they have added some serious firepower and are not getting any attention for it. The G-men surprisingly finished last season at 6-5 after a dreadful 0-5 start. They also beat more playoff teams (3) than the rest of the dreaded NFC East COMBINED (2). Kenny Golladay paced for a 1,000 season over 8 games in 2019 with the Lions catching balls from Jeff Driskel and David Blough - this guy is the real deal. The defense has a stellar secondary and added some nice pieces to the front seven that should help them improve overall. This is strictly a value play, but the Giants can improve this year and make a run at winning the division. Their win total is 7.5 and sure, you could take their over, but there is still a decent chance this team falls completely flat and goes 3-14. So, rather than take the over, we are going to ride with the Giants to win the NFC East at +500. The juice is certainly worth it and 9 wins will win this division.
The Pick: Giants to win NFC East +500
Quick RECAP:
Chiefs OVER 12.5 Chargers UNDER 9.5 Gruden first coach fired +1000 Cowboys UNDER 9.5 Eagles UNDER 7 WFT UNDER 8.5, Chase Young DPOY +1600 Giants to win NFC East +500