Sick of betting baseball? Well, we’ve got good news: there is real life NFL football in one week. Sure, it’s just pre-season and of course it doesn't matter. BUT... it’s a sign that the most magical time of year is right around the corner. Close your eyes... you can smell the hot wings, you can taste the ice cold beer, you hear Scott Hanson’s sweet serenade. We are close!
Training camp isn’t just for the players, it’s for gamblers as well. You can’t just show up before kickoff on Week 1 ready to place your bets. No, no, no. There’s too much value to be had in the futures market and season win totals. At this point, I’m sure you are all well aware we aren’t research guru’s, but you can fuck right off! We actually did do some dirty work for this. Each week we will cover two divisions. Within them we’ll be pointing out what we feel is relevant info for each team, along with our season bets. Tail or fade at your own risk. Regardless, we hope you find some value in the perspective, and if you enjoy then give us a share and follow on twitter.
NFC South
Opponents: NFC South (6 games); NFC East (4 games); AFC East (4 games)
Bucs - Super Bowl +500 - Total Wins 11.5 (-160)
More sunny days in Tampa
Additional opponents: @Colts, @Rams, Bears
Let’s start where it ended. With Mr. Perfect himself and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Who lives better than Tom Brady? Seriously… I’d like to meet them. 7 rings, super-model wife, bastard son, scratch golfer - the guy just does it all. QB’s typically don’t hit their stride till the 2nd year in Bruce Arians system, so brace yourself for more GOAT-ness. The ONLY thing more concerning to opposing teams than Brady, is Brady with an elite Defense. As impressive as his playoff run was, Devin White and Co’s was better. Shutting down two future HOF QB’s, and doing just enough to get past another en route to the Bucs 2nd Lombardi.
Brees 19/34 1 TD 3 INT
Rodgers 33/48 3 TD 1 INT (Aaron Jones two fumbles were the difference)
Mahomes 20/46 0 TD 2 INT
So what's the play for the Bucs this year? Super-Bowl repeat? Maybe… but at +500 it's not worth the juice this early. The Bucs are the only team to win a Super Bowl and return all 22 starters. Given that, we are playing this one right down the fairway.
The Pick: NFC South Champs -200; Over 11.5 -160
Saints - Super Bowl +2300 - Total Wins 9 (-115)
The Moron vs. The Mormon
Additional opponents: Pack, @Seahawks, @Titans
We DRASTICALLY differ on this so let me (Greg) get my side out since I’m way more passionate about this one. Jameis Winston is bad at football and I hate him. Is he a quality fantasy option? Probably! Is he the guy you want taking the snaps down 3 in the 4th Quarter? Absolutely not. Rumblings have already started about Brees and his noodle arm holding the Saints back last year, and Jameis is only 2 years removed from a 5,000 yard season. Everyone and we mean EVERYONE is going to have the Saints as their sleeper out of the NFC. What's not to like? Strong defense - check. Game changing WR - check (baring injury). Freak RB - check. This team had more regular season wins than ANYONE in the NFL over the last 4 years (49). Yes, Brees is out, but in 2019 Bridgewater went 5-0, and Taysum went 4-1 last year. Nothing about the change from Brees to Jameis should point to a regression, especially with Taysum lurking… so why the fuck does Vegas have their win total at 9 (-115) in a 17 game season? Here's why - the changes for the Saints goes deeper than the QB position. They are replacing 10 starters this year. None of the “experts” are concerned about the changing of the guard at QB, but Vegas very clearly is. You have to fucking love a spot where everyone thinks they are getting easy money. The only reason not to pound is Taysum (as gross as this sounds) can manage a game and maybe limp them into the playoffs. You don’t have to tail us on this one, but at least don’t fall for the trap and take their over.
The Pick: Under 9 (-115) OR Saint to Miss Playoffs (-115)
Panthers - Super Bowl +5500 - Total Wins 7.5 (-120)
Sam’s last Stand
Additional opponents: @Texans, Vikings, @Cards
Is Sam Darnold the next Ryan Tannehill? Early round draft pick nearly suffocated by Adam Gase, only to find prosperity in a new city? Maybe! Matt Rhule enters his 2nd season with a quality offense highlighted by a healthy Unicorn in Christian McCaffrey and a strong WR core (DJM, Robby Anderson and the potential of Terrance Marshall Jr). The Defense is nothing special, but they added some nice pieces in the draft (Jaycee Horn) and free agency (Haason Reddick). It may have gone unnoticed, but the Panthers were actually competitive in just about every game last year (sans Tampa). They played 11 one score games, but went 3-8 in them. Want an insane stat? Carolina’s opponents made a league leading 93% of their field goals, only missing 2 all year. That’s some shit. The real issue with this team will be the offensive line, but the return of CMC should be enough to buy Darnold the extra half second he didn't have as a Jet. We don’t think it’s a stretch to say Carolina improved at QB, RB (health), and defense. Pair that with an easier schedule, and the Panthers should be able to improve from their 2020 5-11 record and hit the over on their win total.
The Pick: Over 7.5 (-130)
Falcons - Super Bowl +5500 - Total Wins 7.5 (-145)
More of the same in ATL
Additional opponents: @Jaguars, @49ers, Lions
Boy ohh boy is this team going to be mediocre. If you are a Falcons fan, you have got to be fired up to be right around .500 again (lol). Best case scenario is they don’t have a catastrophic 4th quarter collapse, and worst case is you are just bad enough not to get a good draft pick. FUN! Their total is at 7.5 with a little love on the over (-145). Don’t love it, don’t hate it. Now - if you want something to be excited about with the Falcons - it’s first round Draft Pick Kyle Pitts. This man is a FREAK. A Tight End hasn’t won offensive rookie of the year since *check notes* Mike Ditka in 1961. Sprinkle a little love on Pitts at +800 to bring it home. It’s certainly a stretch with this year's QB class, but after seeing him go off the first couple games you are going to want a ticket on the highest drafted TE in NFL history.
The Pick: Not Touching; Kyle Pitts Offensive Rookie of the Year +800
AFC East
Opponents: NFC East (6 Games); AFC South (4 Games); NFC South (4 Games)
Bills - Super Bowl +900 - Total Wins 11
Unfamiliar Expectations in Buffalo
Additional opponents: Steelers, @Chiefs, WFT
Oh Buffalo, how The Degenerate loves you so. If you ever find yourself lucky enough to drink port wine out of a bowling ball or dip a chicken sandwich into a paint tray of ranch with Pinto Ron, maybe you can understand why. But we can’t let our heart get in the way of our head. The Bills and Josh Allen are certainly a force to be reckoned with. Gone are the days of treating a match-up against Buffalo as a BYE week. Sean McDermot deserves a ton of credit, but perhaps even more deserving is OC Brian Daboll. The improvement Josh Allen made from year 2 to year 3 was remarkable. We are certainly not going as far as to say there is a regression coming from Allen, but almost all of their close games ended up breaking in their favor (except @Arizona). For the first time since the Jim Kelly era there is some pressure and expectations up north, and that can result in some added nerves and dropping a game or two that they probably shouldn’t have won. This year, Buffalo has got to get Josh Allen some run support. He’s averaged 100 carries over the last 3 seasons, and as we saw with Lamar and Kyler, these will eventually take their toll and result in missed time. In the playoffs, you saw defensive adjustments made by Indy, Baltimore and KC. They played more pass coverage and dared Buffalo to run... fucking double dog dared em. And guess what? The Bills just couldn’t muster up the mustard. Of course we expect Buffalo’s offense to be a threat, but not quite top of the league statistically again without a running game. Defensively, they’ve got arguably one of the best secondaries in the league. Yet last year they were still able to be figured out. The Bills schedule is also significantly more difficult this year, and they play 5 teams who have over a week to prepare. 11 wins is a bit too high for our liking, but we certainly aren't fading - this is a pass for us. (Remembering the good times pre rona below)
The Pick: None
Dolphins - Super Bowl +2800 - Total Wins 9.5 (+120)
Take off the training wheels
Additional opponents: @Raiders, Ravens, Giants
Tua Tua Tua...what kind of season are you about to have?! Wish we had a crystal ball because this might be one of the toughest predictions to make. First, let’s take a look at the good and the bad from last year. The bad - Tua only averaged 6 yards per attempt, near the bottom of the league. The good - the Dolphins went 6-3 with Tua as the starter. Look, as a gambler, I (Brandon) thought this was Fitz’s team last year, and did not agree with the QB change in week 7. I faded the dolphins, and got burned. The team really stepped up for their rookie QB. The defense forced a ton of turnovers (3rd most), and the offense got some surprise production from Gaskins and Ahmed. We can give Tua the benefit of the doubt and point out that he had a Covid offseason to prepare, and came off a pretty bad hip injury that ended his season at Bama. Whether you think Tua is good or not - he’s an easy guy to root for. Humble, works hard and a genuine good dude. Fun fact: The 2021 Dolphins have the most expensive WR core in the NFL. This is massive considering Tua’s leading pass catchers in 2020 were Gesicki and Lynn fucking Bowden. So you have to give them credit for adding weapons with the signing of Will Fuller and drafting Waddle. But they really need the offensive line to step up. We also love rookie Jalen Phillips, and have a ton of faith in coach Brian Flores. So what’s holding us back from pounding the Dolphins? Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey. We are going to force a bet here though, because we can’t give you back-to-back passes and because the +120 juice is tasty. So let’s say Tua plays well enough, the defense stays solid, cross our fingers, and focus on the fact that Miami has the 4th easiest schedule.
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins (+105), Jalen Phillips DROY (+600)
Patriots - Super Bowl +2800 - Total Wins 9.5 (-120)
Bill Beli-chip-on-his-shoulder
Additional Opponents: Browns, @Chargers, Cowboys
Every little kid played this game at some point. You and a group of friends go into a bathroom, lock the door, turn off the lights, and recite “Tom Brady is the real reason the Patriots won six Super Bowls”. Bill Belichick comes out from the mirror, steals your soul, drinks your blood, and cuts the sleeves off all your hoodies. This guy is a certified psychopath and sure he's a little bit happy for Tom Terrific, but we can guarantee he is ready to stop this bullshit and prove he's the greatest coach of all time. So what's to be optimistic about with a lackluster Cam Newton and remarkably average draft pick of Mac Jones under center? This offseason the Patriots maxed out their credit card on offensive weapons, which is terribly uncharacteristic of the franchise. Signing Jonnu Smith (4yr/50mill), Hunter Henry (3yr/37mill), and Nelson Agholor (2yr/22mil). If you didn't know any better you would say New England is trying to rebuild the team they had in 2010 when the Patriots drafted Gronk and Aaron Hernandez. As bad as things looked last year, the Patriots still finished 7-9. On the season they had a total of 12 touchdown passes and 2 of them came from WR Jakobi Meyers. That's right - their leading WR passed for more TD’s than he caught (he caught zero). Another sign to support the Pats in 2021 is last year they led the leagues in Covid opt-outs (8). With a sturdy draft, some returning “do your job” type guys, and signing Kyle Van Noy, the Pats D is certainly trending in the right direction. Hell hath no fury like a pissed off Bill Belicheck. As tough as it might be to get on the Cam Newton/Mac Jones train, we are cautiously backing the Patriots.
The Pick: Patriots Over 9.5 (-120)
New York Jets: Super Bowl +8500 - Total Wins 6 (-115)
New Beginnings
Additional opponents: Bengals, @Broncos, Eagles
The Adam Gase era has officially come to a close in New Jersey, and more than likely the NFL. The botched experiment left even the most miserable Jets fans at new lows. Two of the top three scores for the Jets last year were kickers. This is as rock bottom as an offense can get. Enter Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson. We get it - a Muslim head coach and a Mormon QB trying to make it in New York sounds like a throwaway NBC pilot. Wilson might have bust written all over him, the story of innocent small town Utah boy coming to the big city typically doesn’t end well. BUT Jets also have a sneaky decent WR core signing Corey Davis, returning Jameison Crowder, last years 2nd round pick Denzel Mims and drafting Elijah Moore. The defense is a misshapen ball of clay and Saleh might be able to turn it into a B-. Of course there isn't much to like about this Jets team, but with a low win total, a pissed off medicine ball of a coach and the #2 pick in the draft… that’s just enough to keep us off the fade train. Actually, fuck it… Jets under.
The pick: Under 6 (-115)