Welcome to The Degenerate! Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends and what to be mindful of before punching in your bets. Full disclosure: neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
“I can feel it coming in the air tonight, (Oh lord)
And I've been waiting for this moment, for all my life, (Oh lord)
Can you feel it coming in the air tonight, oh lord, (Oh lord)”
- Phil Collins
It’s back baby! Set ya watches - we’ve got action tonight. There’s nothing we love in this Bucs/Cowboys game at the moment but, be sure to follow us on Twitter just in case we get a feeling right before kickoff.
Welcome to Week 1. Just a few more days till you crack that first shitty domestic beer at noon on Sunday. Truly embrace the first sip knowing that 32 teams are about to embark on a journey and you get to be along for every step of it. Although expectations vary depending on your teams allegiance, on opening day, everyone has a blank slate - and anything is possible! (Insert Kevin Garnett gif)
New to our 2021 format - we’ll be including a handful of our favorite college picks as well. We had a great run last year finishing with a 69-54 record ATS. With that being said, we didn’t start till Week 4, and typically we do not have our best go of things in Week 1. This year, we’ve done significantly more research, as some of you have seen from our 4-Part Futures write-ups (see links at bottom). So this year could be different, but don’t start swinging for the fences and throwing out max bets this early. Gotta test the water before you jump in, regardless of now nice the weather is.
New beginnings and unhappy endings - Cardinals @ Titans (-3) Over 52
Raise your hand if you’ve seen a graphic comparing Ryan Tannehill’s last two season to Patrick Mahomes’. Everyone? Good. Sir Issac Newton wisely said “What goes up must come down” and although it’s unlikely he was speaking about Tannehill’s performance, you can’t prove he wasn’t. Now, this pick isn’t just about fading Tanny. The Cardinals match-up very nicely, and the addition of JJ Watt will keep pressure on the Titans all game long. Former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith left town, and new OC Todd Downing will have his work cut out for him. The Titans defense is ass. Kyler Murray will be at full health and the Cardinals offense is be primed to have a day. Tennessee -3 at home doesn’t strike us as too odd of a line, but we are big believers in a regression in Nashville. It starts on Sunday.
The Pick: Cardinals +3 (Greg’s best bet)
So stupid it’s brilliant - 49ers @ Lions +7.5 Total 45
This might not necessarily be the contrarian play of the week, but it’s close. There may not be a bigger discrepancy in IQ all year than the battle of head coaches Shanahan and Campbell. Oddly enough - we think this might play to the Lions advantage. Detroit will certainly be unorthodox, and opponents will certainly catch on and let them shoot themselves in the foot, but for this week we think Shanahan might overthink things a bit too much and allow the Lions to hang around. The Niners are primed to return to the class of the NFC, and the Lions are destined to sink to the bottom of it. Any other week of the season and we would probably stay away from this one, but something about Dan Campbell tells us this game is his Super Bowl and he’s going to do everything he can with limited talent to pull off a back door cover.
The Pick: Lions +7.5
Better days will come - Dolphins @ Patriots (-3) Total 43.5
Welcome to the big league Mac Jones. The decision to cut Cam and move to Mac Jones is the correct one, but it’s sure to be scrutinized. This pick really boils down to a few things. Mac Jones is a project, not a phenom. We really like the Patriots this year, but it’s going to take awhile for Belichick to get everything in order. Tua has a year of experience and a proper offseason to prepare. Most importantly, the Dolphins have a very good defense that should be enough to hold off the Patriots as Mac Jones makes his first NFL start.
The Pick: Dolphins +3
Are you gonna bark all day doggie or are you gonna bite - Jags @ Texans +3 Total 45.5
Immediately after writing this I’m going to take a shower and burn my clothes:
WE ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE TEXANS +3
There, we said it. God it’s feel disgusting. But those usually end up being the bets that hit the most. When you hate it so much you love it. Like a warm shot of Montezuma at 1am, if you don’t feel immediate pain after is it even worth it?
We don’t think the line is fishy at all. We simply think that Tyrod Taylor and the Houston Texans, who have the league’s lowest win total (4), are going to come out and drag their nuts all over Urban Mayer and the Jags. We usually like to fade rookie QB’s, but this is not a system play. Taylor is a 10 year vet, and a roster full of pissed off nobodies who know they’re the laughing stock of the NFL are going to come to play in Week 1. Similar to the Jags themselves in 2020, when they upset the Colts in their home opener. For the record – Trevor is going to be a stud, and we are not arguing that the Texans are the better team. But on this any given Sunday, the home dog is going to bark. This is your survivor scare of the week - be wary of Jags ML
The Pick: Texans +3 (Brandon’s best bet)
Teddy > Danny - Broncos @ Giants +3 Total 42
We don’t love Vic Fangio, but he made the right pick going with Teddy Two Gloves as the starter. Now we’re sure you’re aware of Teddy’s excellent record ATS, but keep in mind he’s not so great as a favorite. That doesn’t scare us at all. The Gmen LOVE under-performing to start the year, and after some off season antics already brewing in New Jersey, we feel they’re prime for that trend to continue. Do not sleep on the Broncos this year. We don’t love their coaching staff, but we do love their roster. This is the lowest total of the weekend, and probably for good reason as both the Gmen and Broncos have stellar defenses. We think Teddy manages the game slightly better than Danny Dimes, and the Broncos stay in control.
The Pick: Denver ML -160
An odd place and an unexpected number - Packers @ Saints +4 Total 50
We just love fading Rodgers (and usually end up regretting it). I’ll go on record as stating Greg does NOT like this pick, because he hates Jameis, but I am insisting we include it in this weeks newsletter. Due to Hurricane Ida, this game got relocated to Jacksonville. Essentially a neutral site, and the Packers are only -4 with a Jameis led Saints team? Seems a tad low. Rodgers does typically struggle in the state of Florida. I do think GB sneaks out the win, so don’t get greedy, but I’m liking New Orleans with the points to keep It close.
The Pick: Saints +4
Skol roll - Vikings @ Bengals +3 Total 47.5
If you read our season previews, then you know we are very high on the Vikings this year. They’ve gotten bitten by the injury bug as of late, but it doesn’t phase us. We like them every which way this season, but if we are being honest, we don’t love them here. However, most of our picks are dogs, and we feel compelled to find some favorites. So, gun to our head, we don’t see the Vikings losing this game. Sure Cincy has talent on offense, but we bet you still can’t name one person on their defense. It’ll be close, it’ll be ugly, but Minnesota eeks out the win.
The Pick: Vikings ML - 180
The Bookies Pick
Neither of us like it, neither of us hate it – but it’s our bookies pick!
Colts +3
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Chargers @ WFT Under 44.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
(Current record: 4-1 YTD)
We came out hot to start the year! Shame on us for fading Saban. Oh well. This week is whacky, but there are still some gems we got our eyes on.
Kansas +25 @ #19 Coastal Carolina
Hahaha we can’t even write this with a straight face. You don’t know man… you never fucking know. We just like Kansas to cover here, okay?
The pick: Kansas +25
South Carolina -1.5 @ East Carolina
What a rivalry! This line is WAY too low. SC had a blowout win in week 1, while ECU lost to App St 33-19. Line stinks.
The Pick: ECU +1.5
#11 Oregon @ #3 Ohio St - Total 63.5
Unfortunately, we don’t have a side for you here. But we love the total! Ahhhhhahhhhhahh UNDER! Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is going to expect fireworks in this game. Don’t be a chump.
The Pick: Under 63.5
#12 Iowa +4.5 @ #10 Iowa State
Pretty simple logic here. Iowa just beat the shit out of Indiana, while Iowa St barely survived at home against Northern Iowa. This will be the “fade the trendy dog” pick of the week.
The Pick: Iowa St ML -195
Texas -6.5 @ Arkansas
“Texas is back” - the public. DO NOT FALL FOR IT. Yes, Texas looked great in their home opener and Sarkisians debut. Arkansas looked…just kidding nobody watched them play fucking Rice. It doesn’t matter how they looked. This is your contrarian play of the weekend.
The Pick: Arkansas +7 (buy .5)
Last chance to punch in some futures in fast approaching: NFL Recaps below