NFL Season Preview Pt. 1
NFC West & NFC South
DUN DUN DUN DUNNNN!
We’re back. Football is back. The Preseason has started (yes - we’re betting on it) and now is the time to really get cranking with your research. You don’t want to be too early in placing your season long futures bets due to the risk of training camp injury, but it’s time to really hone in on who you like, love and hate.
For the next four weeks we’ll be giving you a brief overview of what bets are catching our eyes before opening kickoff. Structure is simple – two divisions each week. We’ll let you know the futures we love, the bets we need, and (most importantly) the traps to avoid.
“Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends, we’re so glad you could attend come inside, come inside”
NFC WEST
Odds to win Division
Rams +125
49ers +175
Cardinals +350
Seahawks +1500
San Francisco 49ers
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1600
We aren’t going to start by bashing Jimmy G, because as easy as it may seem…he was quite competent. Certainly nothing special, like a peanut butter & jelly sandwich for lunch. You’re not craving it but it’ll get the job done without any major complaints. His record as a starter in SF was 31-14, and to make that sound even better, without him they were 8-28. Jimmy G also lead the league in Yards Per Attempt (8.4) yet somehow is ranked 42nd out of 43 QBs in air yards. How is that possible? Perhaps it’s due to the fact that the Niners lead all teams in Yard After Catch per completion (6.8). This leads us to why we are on the hype train for the Niners.
Trey Lance has a ton of potential, but it’s all about Kyle Shannahan. This guy has been a wizard despite having some of the worst injury luck during his entire tenure in SF. If he made RGIII look like a Pro-Bowler in Washington, he can do some impressive things with Lance this year. Their schedule starts with some cupcakes to help Trey build confidence and get some reps, which is huge for the North Dakota State product. The defense actually got better despite losing Robert Saleh (reason 1,015 why we will fade the Jets), and they were able to secure Deebo Samuel with a new contract.
In 2021 the Niners were the third most injured team. Per Warren Sharp, they only played 6 games with their QB1, RB2, TE1, WR1 and WR2. Their record in those games when healthy? 5-1. We think this team can be something special this year.
The Pick: 49ers OVER 9.5 Wins (-145); NFC West Champions +200
Worth a sprinkle: Kyle Shannahan COY +2300; Trey Lance MVP +1800
Los Angeles Rams
2021 Record: 12-5
2022 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1100
Q: “Matthew Stafford you just won the Super Bowl, what are you gonna do next?”
A: “Play the 2nd most difficult schedule and pray that my back and Cooper Kupp can hold up for another season”
No chance we’re looking to fade this squad, but we at least wanted to include some key notes as to why we aren’t looking to bet on them either. Yes, Matt Stafford was great, but you know who was much better? His offensive line. They led the NFL in pass blocking, had the least amount of holding calls, and had the fewest false starts. Triple Crown for the big fellas. They lose All-Pro LT Andrew Whitworth (retired) and G Austin Corbett (Signed w/ Panthers). In addition to their schedule getting much more difficult, last year they were one of the luckiest teams in terms of injures.
The Pick: No Bet
Arizona Cardinals
2021 Record: 11-6
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +3000
Did everyone forget that this team started 7-0 last season before getting whomped by the Packers at home, and then immediately regressed to 4-6 and ending with a beatdown by the Rams in the Playoffs? Sure, Kyler and DHop got injured, and that’s obviously going to change things, but in 2020 they saw a similar fate. Start: 6-3; Finish 2-5. Kliff Kingsberry? More like King Kliffsberry amirite.
In all seriousness, let’s break down where they stand going into the 2022 season, because this bet is a bit tricky. We believe most are looking to fade after the DHop suspension and the stories coming out on Kyler’s contract, and we don’t disagree. But we won’t be the first in line. James Conner was one of the best resiliency stories last year, but can he stay healthy for another full season? This is a major concern because Chase Edmonds left, and if this team loses Conner they’ll run Kyler more which increases his chance of injury. Then the wheels really fall off.
The loss of Christian Kirk isn’t massive, but he did lead the team in targets last year. Adding Marquise “Stone Hands” Brown may not be as sexy as it was at Oklahoma, and now he’s facing suspension to begin the season. The Cardinals open up with KC, @OAK, and LAR, which should have you licking your chops if you want to fade…but proceed with caution. The Cardinals are favored in seven games this year, and four of them come from weeks 4 – 9.
We will be playing this as an in season under, and waiting till after a likely Week 9 win over the Seahawks to let loose and fade away before they start a gauntlet of the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL from Week 10 on. Set a calendar reminder or follow @thedegenweekly and we’ll be sure to do it for you.
The Pick: In season, adjusted under (likely week 10)
Seattle Seahawks
2021 Record: 7-10
2022 Win Total: 5.5
SB Odds: +15000
Massive overhaul out West. Not just Russ, but Bobby Wagner and Chris Carson are gone too. Can’t wait for the first “Let Lock Cook” sign. This team has fade written all over them, but the juice on the over 5.5 (-135) has us in limbo. Pete Carroll loves to run the ball, which sucks when you have Russell Wilson, but might be a good thing with Drew Lock/Geno Smith. Their offensive weapons are still high caliber, and they went 0-5 last year in games of a field goal or less. Fade with caution.
The Bet: No Bet
NFC South
Odds to win Division:
Bucs -270
Saints +310
Panthers +1000
Falcons +2800
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 Record: 13-4
2022 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +750
Welcome non-Patriot and/or Bucs fans to year 23 of hating Tom Brady. You have got to give the GM’s in Tampa credit for continuing to find a way to sign key FA’s and bring in the next generation of retirees.
Remember what we said about waiting to punch in your bets because of injury risk? Well here’s exhibit A, as the Bucs lost their center Ryan Jensen in the first week of camp. He’s expected to miss a few months due to knee injury. This was known to be a very durable O-line for Brady, but the Bucs were coming into the 2022 season without both Guards (Marpet retired, Cappa signed w/ Bengals). Jensen had only given up 2 sacks in all of the 2021 season (including playoffs), and anchored an O-line that gave up the fewest sacks in the NFL.
The Bucs are favored in 16 games this year (even @SF). Bruce Arians is out, and now Todd Bowles will take over at HC. We love Bruce, but Bowles is no downgrade in our minds. He’s got plenty of experience, is well respected, and has shown he’s capable of managing an elite defense. Before fading the Bucs this year, it’s important to know they will have a VERY easy schedule. Gronk is gone and Godwin is coming off an ACL injury, but the Bucs added veteran Julio Jones to the WR core, who apparently has looked great in camp.
I cannot believe we are seeing Tom Brady in a contrarian spot to go over his win total, but here we are. Do what you will with this information. Typically, we are ones to follow the “smart” money and line movement. However, the Bucs 11.5 win total has not budged, although the under is juiced to -125. The lack of movement tempts us to get REAL contrarian and be on the side of the house with the Over, but we’ll just sit this one out.
The Pick: No Bet
New Orleans Saints
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4000
This team is our Grinch in the sense that we wouldn’t touch them with a 10 foot pole. Honestly, there may not be a team in the NFL with more uncertainty.
Is Jameis good? The jury is still out, but word on the street is he’s looked great in camp. Although, it should be mentioned that he may miss some time…
But there are too many other question marks with this Saints team to feel confident enough in placing a wager on them. How will they fare now that long time HC Sean Payton left? Is Michael Thomas’s foot back to normal? Will Kamara get suspended? Absolutely no reason or value in taking either side of this squad.
The Bet: HARD Pass
Carolina Panthers
2021 Record: 5-12
2022 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +10000
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Matt Rhule should be in a psych ward. Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and now Baker Mayfield. No wonder they’ve had 5 wins in 3 straight years.
Baker is certainly an improvement from Darnold, but he’s not the answer. Rhule doesn’t have the luxury of trying to develop rookie Matt Corrall. His head's on the chopping block. If this doesn’t give you enough concern, they hired ex-Giants HC Ben Macadoo to run the offense. Poor, poor Baker.
CMC is back, and he’s one of the most dynamic playmakers in the game…when healthy. We want to emphasize “when healthy” because he’s only played ten games in the last two years. The Panthers have the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL till Week 7, and they aren’t favored in a game till week 10. More dark days ahead in Charlotte.
The Bets: Panthers u6.5; Matt Rhule first coach fired +225
Atlanta Falcons
2021 Record: 7-10
2022 Win Total: 4.5
SB Odds: +25000
Another “not so fast my friends” look from us. This Falcons team is the definition of a rebuild, and Head Coach Arthur Smith gave us absolutely nothing to be excited about last year. Fun fact: they aren’t favored in a single game!
If there is one thing the Falcons do better than every other franchise, it’s injecting pain into not only their fanbase, but also those who bet them. Think you’re getting a top 5 pick next year Falcons fans? Think again! They will more than likely find a way to win 6 games and remain in purgatory.
The Bet: No Thanks!
RECAP:
49ers OVER 9.5 Wins -145
NFC West Champions +200
Kyle Shannahan COY +2300
Trey Lance MVP +1800
Panthers u6.5 -125
Matt Rhule first coach fired +225