NFL Season Preview Pt. 2
AFC North & AFC East
AFC NORTH
Odds to win Division:
Ravens +160
Bengals +180
Browns +300
Steelers +900
Baltimore Ravens
2021 Record: 8-9
2022 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +2000
The Ravens injury news in the 2021 season was so bad you’d think that it was coming from a parody account. All their RB’s went down one after the other before the season even started, and then the cherry on top was stud DB Marcus Peters. Yet somehow as of December 1st, 2021, the Ravens were the #1 seed in the AFC.
No team suffered more blows to impactful starters, but it wasn’t until Lamar went down with an ankle injury that the wheels really fell off and they ended the season 0-6. Now, to all the Lamar haters who say he’s injury prone - he’s only missed six games in his career and two of those were due to covid/illness. So we are not too worried about that with our season long wager. He’s also reportedly added 18 lbs of muscle. Should be fun to tackle.
We are in love with the Ravens this year, and it’s clearly not just us. Despite the Bengals winning the division and AFC last year, the Ravens opened at +180 to win the AFC North, and have already moved to +105. Significant steam. And honestly, we love Lamar Jackson even more than any Ravens bet. People seem to forget he unanimously won the NFL MVP award in 2019, which was his first full season as a starter. Is he the most accurate passer? Absolutely not. But he’s a gamer and a guy who finds a way to win. With more experience and a healthier roster, we will be looking to capitalize on another MVP.
You gotta love Harbaugh as one of the best coaches in the NFL, and trust that if he can avoid the plethora of injuries they suffered last year, then this team can make some serious noise. Their secondary will return Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, and added some huge talent in Marcus Williams (Saints) and draft pick Kyle Hamilton (Irish). Sign up us up for a healthy Ravens team every which way.
The Bet(s): Ravens OVER 10.5 Wins (+100), AFC North +105, Lamar MVP +1800
Cincinnati Bengals
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2200
What was the most impressive thing to you about the Bengals last year? “Joe Burrow”. Wrong. “Ohhh, 2021 Offensive Rookie of the year, Jamar Chase?” Wrong again!
It was their 2H defense. Look at these stats (per @sharpfootball): From Week 11 and on - the Bengals allowed 23 TOTAL points in the 2H. That includes 3 playoff games and the Super Bowl. INSANE. Just 23 2H points…in 12 games. They pitched 8 shutouts for Christ’s sake. Absolutely amazing in-game adjustments by the coaching staff.
Is it repeatable? Maybe, but we aren’t betting on it. The Bengals improved their O-line which should help Joe Cool put up some impressive numbers, but we just simply cannot see the defense being as productive as they were last year. They go from one of the easiest schedules to one of the hardest. Additionally, they went 4-0 against division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh, winning by a combined score of 147-58. Tomlin and Harbaugh sure as shit won’t let that happen again. Never forget Cinci got embarrassed by Mike White and the Jets. Vegas has the defending AFC Champions at a short number to make the playoffs. Think that’s telling? Because we do.
(For the record: we love Joe Burrow very, very much, and will piss and moan every week if they make another Super Bowl)
The Bet: Bengals to Miss Playoffs +120
Cleveland Browns
2021 Record: 8-9
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +3000
Watson has officially been suspended for 11 games as of yesterday. This team is very strong, and they play one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. However, Brisset is bad. He was okay in Indianapolis, but terrible in Miami. No interest in backing him, or fading a good Browns team that returns Watson late in the year.
The Bet: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Record: 9-7-1
2022 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +7000
Moment of silence while we pour one out for Big Ben………….thank you.
Was it a year too long? Of course. Probably 2-3 years. Regardless, he will be missed. Enter the Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett era. No matter who the starter is, you can be damn sure they will have 10x the mobility of 2021 Ben. The problem (and problem is an understatement) is the offensive line. Last year they were 32/32 in terms of performance. They should be better this year, but not by much.
A recipe for disaster is an inexperienced and/or mistake prone QB with zero protection. As bad as Ben was, he could make a very quick read and get rid of the ball before the line got blown over. Add to the fact they play an incredibly difficult schedule, and this could be the beginning of some dark days in the ‘burgh.
Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season in his 15 years as a head coach. We know that, you know that and Vegas absolutely knows that. Yet the win total suggests that Vegas doesn’t care and knows Steelers are due for a big step back. Tread lightly if you think this team is going to make some noise, because until they have an offensive line, it isn’t going to happen. On the positive side, Rookie WR George Pickens has been a monster in training camp. One thing is for sure - the Steelers know how to draft receivers. That’s our only play for this squad.
The Bet: George Pickens OROY +1000
AFC EAST
Odds to win Division:
Bills -230
Dolphins +450
Patriots +500
Jets +2000
Buffalo Bills
2021 Record: 11-6
2022 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +600
Smashing tables, chugging beers, and heartbreaking losses…
Welcome to Buffalo, New York!
(Pictured from left to right: Brandon, Ranch Dressing, Pinto Ron, Greg)
Everyone will remember that Chiefs loss in the Divisional Round, but how many people remember their loss to the Steelers to start the season? What about losing to an Urban Meyer led Jacksonville Jaguars team? Or losing to the Colts 41-15?
As much as this team looked like they were destined for a Super Bowl last year, there are absolutely some areas for concern. For starters, they’ve only had a running back go for 100+ yards in 2 games during the Josh Allen era. OC Brian Daboll left for the Giants, and now Ken Dorsey (yes, that Ken Dorsey) will be filling in. Last year the Bills had the easiest schedule in the NFL - only playing four teams with a Top 20 offense. This year will get much more difficult, and right from the start. In their first 8 games, they only play one team with less than an 8.5 win total (Steelers 7.5).
In the offseason they added former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller and one-time foul ball catcher O.J. Howard. Sad to say, because we love the team, love the city, and love the fans…but we aren’t buying the hype that this is Buffalo’s year. It should noted that we are seeing Buffalo in TONS of odds-boosts from sports books like Fanduel. “Bucs and Bills to both win their division -200” or “Bills/Bucs/Chiefs to all make the playoffs +100”. One of those teams is going to ruin it. Contrarian play of the season on deck:
The Bet: Bills UNDER 11.5 Wins (+115)
Miami Dolphins
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4000
Quite possibly the only team in NFL history to have both 7-game losing and winning streaks in the same year. Good luck figuring out which Fins team you’re going to get any given Sunday.
Tua might be a stud, new Head Coach Mike McDaniel seems like a cool dude, and Tyreek/Waddle could be the best WR duo in the NFL. But at the same time this team could have 4 wins and we don’t think anyone would be surprised.
Nothing screams purgatory like the Miami Dolphins, and our brains are in an absolute pretzel on this one. Strong lean to fading Miami this year, but we actually do like Tua and for some weird reason would like to see him succeed.
For that reason - we’re out.
The Bet: Pass
New England Patriots
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4000
As difficult as it is to bet against Bill Belichick, it's equally as easy to bet on the failure of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. How are these guys running an offense in the NFL? Mac Jones showed impressive development, but will that be the case with these bozos in charge? Or is he destined to digress?
I bet you didn’t know the Patriots have the most expensive WR core in the NFL. Count your blessings, Nelson Agholor, because you hit the lottery. Here’s the real head scratcher - despite Mac’s development/promise, the Patriots open this season with a lower win total than last year. Why? Well, their schedule is significantly harder and their o-line, secondary, and front seven got worse.
Look at their coaching staff (outside of Bill of course). They lost OC Josh McDaniels to the Raiders, and added Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. That’s embarrassing. However, as long as Bill’s in charge, we can’t fade. You know he’s got tricks up his cut-off sleeves to sneak out some wins.
The Bet: Pass
New York Jets
2021 Record: 4-13
2022 Win Total: 5.5
SB Odds: +15000
It’s been 12 years since the Jets went to the Playoffs. 12 years of butt fumbles, Geno Smith’s, and Sam Darnold’s. They’ve finished last in the AFC East 6 of the last 8 years. Jets fans have experienced an unfathomable amount of pain, and yet this year they are all in on the bounce back. How? If your last 4 serious girlfriends cheated on you, and the 5th seems a bit too flirtatious at the bar, you would think red flags might start to fly. But nope, not this time. She’s different, she’s the one, she loves me for me!
The Jets aren’t favored to win a game till week 12. They play the 6th most difficult schedule, and defensive guru Robert Saleh led them to the worst defensive performance in the NFL last year. “No Degenerate, you don’t understand, look at their 2022 Draft Class”…we get it, but it’s all hype, and there is nothing we love more than to fade the hype. The Jets might be decent/good in a few years, but not this one.
The Bet: Jets UNDER 5.5 Wins (+115)
RECAP:
Ravens OVER 10.5 Wins +100
Ravens to win AFC North +105
Lamar to win MVP +1800
Bengals to MISS Playoffs +120
George Pickens OROY +1000
Bills UNDER 11.5 Wins +115
Jets UNDER 5.5 Wins +115