NFL Season Preview Pt. 3
NFC North & NFC East
NFC North
Odds to win Division:
Packers -155
Vikings +240
Lions +950
Bears +1200
Chicago Bears
2021 Record: 6-11
2022 Win Total: 5.5
SB Odds: +12000
Goodbye and good riddance, Matt Nagy. Chicago welcomes former Colts DC Matt Eberfus to try and right one of the worst rosters in the NFL.
Let’s do a quick breakdown: the Bears have the worst o-line, terrible WR’s, an awful secondary, a front 7 that lost Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks (Roquon Smith requested a trade), their running backs aren’t good, and Justin Fields just got a defensive minded coach to help him develop. Perfect!
“Too many Urkel’s on your team that’s why your wins low.” - Kanye
Now, before we line up like everyone else to cash the easy money ticket that is the Chicago Bears under, we want to point out a couple of things. What this team lacks in talent they make up for in strength of schedule. With games against the Texans, Giants, Falcons, Jets, and Lions (x2) this team could cover the short total. Strange things happen at Soldier Field and spoiler alert: there’s another NFC North team we would rather fade.
The Pick: Pass
Detroit Lions
2021 Record: 3-13
2022 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +10000
The Detroit Lions were everyone’s favorite underdog by late last season, and rightfully so. Their against the spread (ATS) record was a phenomenal 11-6, and they were an underdog in Every. Single. Game. To say this team will be trendy all season is an understatement. Between the Hard Knocks showing, a batshit crazy (but lovable) Head Coach, and sexy new draft pick Aidan Hutchinson, everyone is looking to grab a piece of this Lion’s ass like she’s Nala (weird joke, but you get the point).
Jared Goff adds DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams to help max out his mediocrity meter. All of it just seems too perfect, it feels too easy to jump on this team to pull some shocking upsets and make a name some real noise. But if you know anything about us at The Degenerate, it’s that there is nothing we love more than fading a trendy dog.
We are aware the Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, but it doesn’t matter. Last year they had zero expectations and exceeded them (despite finishing with 3 wins and a tie). This year, their opponents will be ready for a feisty team and the Lions have more hope, which will only result in more pain as they fall back to reality from America’s most lovable underdog.
The Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins (+105)
Green Bay Packers
2021 Record: 13-4
2022 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1200
Aaron Rodgers just won back-to-back MVP’s. Impressive, right? Well what’s even more impressive is that he also just had 4 consecutive seasons of 500+ passing attempts and less than 5 INT’s. Pardon me, Mr. Perfect! I guess I forgot that you never, ever make a mistake.
Layered on top of the flawless, acid dropping Mr. Rodgers is the fact that the Packers are the FIRST TEAM IN NFL HISTORY to win 13+ regular season games three years in a row, and you can be damn sure we aren’t looking to fade them. However… (grinch smirk) we aren’t jumping on board either. They have an amazing roster - other than the WR position it’s impossible to find any weaknesses. The loss of Devonte Adams will be felt, and we’ll touch on this in the Vikings section. Overall, their offensive line returns significantly healthier than last year, and their schedule is middle of the pack. We just can’t see this team taking a major step backwards. Our gut says to fade, but there is absolutely no reason to oppose Aaron Rodgers in the regular season right now. Hard pass on all things Packers.
The Pick: Pass
Minnesota Vikings
2021 Record: 8-9
2022 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1100
Just because we aren’t directly fading the Packers, doesn’t mean we can’t fade ‘em indirectly. Hello Kevin O’Connell (former Rams OC) and welcome to an incredibly talented offensive. For some reason Mike Zimmer refused to open the playbook and utilize one of the best receiving cores in the NFL. This was an ongoing problem for Zimmer, as you can look back to when they had super-star Stefon Diggs - he was WR Screened to death. Thankfully, we don’t have to watch Jett Jefferson suffer a similar fate in Minnesota. There’s a reason the Kirk/Jet combo is the Vegas favorite to lead the league in passing yardage between any wr/qb duo, and that’s only making us more of a believer in all things Purple.
If you come to The Degenerate for any reason, we hope it’s for advice on a fantasy football sleeper Tight End. Well, look no further than Irv Smith Jr. and thank us later. This dude is that dude. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings had one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL last year, and their secondary wasn’t much better. Adding some key pieces in the draft as well as Za’Darius Smith (Packers) should help to sure up the gaping weaknesses.
Back, to the point of the Packers losing Davonte Adams – he’s roasted Minnesota over the last few years to the tune of 8 TD’s in his last 4 games. Every Viking fan’s prayers were answered when he signed with Vegas. This, along with a new head coach, could be enough to change the balance of power in the NFC North.
The Pick: OVER 9.5 Wins (-110)
NFC East
Odds to win Division:
Cowboys +135
Eagles +170
Commanders +500
Giants +700
***NFC East disclaimer*** If all these win totals seem high, it’s because they are, but for good reason. Every team in this division has a top 10 easy schedule. Mainly from the sheer poverty internally, but they also share games against the Lion, Bears, Jags, and Texans. Fade wisely.
Dallas Cowboys
2021 Record: 12-5
2022 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +2000
The three most shocking moments in recent television history: The Sopranos cut to black finale, The Red Wedding, and Dak Prescott running a QB draw with 14 seconds remaining from the 41-yard line with zero timeouts. Each one left the audience entirely shocked at what they were witnessing, processing the outcome in slow motion and walking away from their TV in utter disbelief, astonishment, and awe.
So, what will the Cowboys do for an encore? Well, as we are writing this, news just broke that they lost LT Tyron Smith. Compounded with Amari Cooper and a few key pieces of the o-line leaving in the offseason, the picture is looking grim. Dallas will certainly have an uphill battle to protect Dak and create some room for dwindling superstar, Zeke. Yes, they had an impressive 12-win season last year. However, a 6-1 start followed by a 6-5 close, begs to ask the question – do you really want to bet on Mike McCarthy? The strength of schedule is a walk in the park, but there are just too many uncertainties and too much distain for McCarthy not to grab a small piece of the this under. Go ahead, 1 unit for the ride, you’ll thank us later.
The Bet: UNDER 10.5 Wins (-145)
Philadelphia Eagles
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2500
Maybe we are a prisoner of the moment, or maybe we are hip to a new trend, but the Eagles can be a real menace in the NFC this year. Coming off an 11-win season Philly made some significant improvements to their defense at every level, while also adding stud WR AJ Brown to pair with speedster DeVonta Smith.
People are high on Philly this year, and have to admit, we are pouring a medium sized cup of the Kool aid. But let’s take a small step back and remember the only win they had over a .500 team last year. It was a Trevor Sieman lead Saints team.
Are we concerned about that? Not really, because of the fact that they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Full disclosure, we’ve swung and missed on the Eagles two years in a row. We go high, they go low. We go low, they make the playoffs. But now…we got ‘em right where we want ‘em. Fly, Eagles, Fly!
The Bet: OVER 9.5 Wins (-145), Eagles Division +170, sprinkle SB 25/1
Washington Commanders
2021 Record: 7-10
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +7000
There is absolutely no reason to spend too much time on this one. Simple question: Do you really want to lay your hard-earned cash on Carson Wentz? Say his name out loud. Now picture his big stupid face (see below). If that’s not enough think about the fact that Frank Reich raised this guy in Philly, brought him into Indy, and then let him walk for a chance at Matt Ryan…then god bless.
Is he an upgrade to their situation in Washington over the last few years? Sure. Is he the answer? LOL no. Wentz enters The District with a worse coach, running back, and offensive line. Not exactly what you want to see for a guy who struggled last year.
On a positive note - scary Terry McLaurin is destined to blow up. Brian Robinson Jr. has the potential and the path to be a star. Chase Young is about to remind everyone he was DROY two years ago. But sadly, all roads lead to Carson Went, which just makes it borderline impossible to back this team.
It’s important to note that EVERYONE is looking to fade the Commanders, and we don’t blame them. The only thing holding us back is Riverboat Ron and a cake walk of a schedule.
The Bet: Pass
New York Giants
2021 Record: 4-13
2022 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +8500
Perhaps the most jaw dropping stat in the NFL is that for no single moment, over the last 5 years, have the NY Football Giants possessed a winning record.
A new regime has entered in the Meadowland’s, and although this year may be more of the same - a foundation is being built between GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll (both coming from the Buffalo Bills). Sadly, Giants fans will have to wade through the human trash pile of “talent” that’s aggregated over the last few years before seeing a real contender emerge, but you can certainly make an argument that the worst of times are in the rear-view mirror.
Are we going to bet Daboll for Coach of the Year (+400)? Not yet, but you can be damn sure we have him circled for 2023. There’s a very good chance Daniel Jones is not the guy, and we’d love to hit Daboll after he handpicks his QB.
The Giants are rebuilding in the right way - starting with the trenches in a newly revamped offensive line, and top draft pick DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon). Although the win total feels high at 7, it’s mainly a function of the Giants having the easiest schedule in the NFL. Danny Dimes’ days are numbered, as this is likely in his last year as a starter. The poor kid has 36 fumbles in 38 games. It doesn’t matter how accurate of a passer you are (he’s not), it’s difficult to win games with that high of a turnover rate. We have too much respect for Daboll to fade this squad, but lord knows we want to.
The Bet: Pass
RECAP:
Lions UNDER 6.5 Wins +105
Vikings OVER 9.5 Wins -110
Cowboys UNDER 10.5 Wins -145
Eagles OVER 9.5 Wins -145
Eagles Division +170
Eagles (.5 Unit) SB +2500