NFL Season Preview Pt. 4
AFC West & AFC South
(Russell Wilson breaking the record (1) for times a player has worn his own jersey)
AFC West
Odds to win Division:
Chiefs +155
Chargers +240
Broncos +260
Raiders +700
Denver Broncos
2021 Record: 7-10
2022 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1700
So long Pete Carroll and Seattle. Russell Wilson starts a new chapter in Denver with new head coach (former Packers OC), Nathaniel Hackett. This team has struggled significantly more than you might have guessed. The Broncos haven’t gone over their pre-season win total since the Peyton Manning days (5 unders, 1 push). Last year they got dangerously close, until Drew Lock came in and broke every over bettor’s heart going 0-3 to close the season.
On offense, Russ will have some new toys with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy to replace old favorites DK and Lockett. Additionally, he will get a lovely running game enhancement with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. Certainly, the cards are aligned to “Let Russ Cook”…but proceed with caution. Replacing every coaching position and a new QB will almost certainly result in some growing pains and lessons learned, especially early in the season.
The loss of Von Miller will might be felt on D, but the addition of Randy Gregory (Cowboys) should help to ease the pain. A pedestrian schedule but a high win total makes this a very tough call, but all signs point to sitting on our hands. We would certainly be remised not to mention the previous two Super Bowl winners did so by adding a Rockstar QB during the FA market. For years Broncos fans have felt they were “a quarterback away” from a Super Bowl contender. No excuses now. There’s just a bit too much talent in this division, and too much inexperience for the coaching staff/defense for us to pick a side. However, we gotta have ourselves a small piece, so let’s go with a rare player prop in the Rockies.
Courtland Sutton…Let’s Ride!
The Bet: Courtland Sutton Over - 950.5 Yards
Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Record: 12-5
2022 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1000
Broncos (Wilson), Raiders (Adams), and Chargers (Mack/Jackson) all made some serious moves to challenge the reigning division champs. Yet, KC remains the favorite to win the AFC West at +155. Last year the Chiefs offense regressed, and still finished as the top offense in the NFL, which says a ton about the Andy Reid/Mahomes relationship. This is even more impressive when you learn that they had the fewest offensive drives of any NFL team last year (per @sharpfootball). It’s pretty simple - if they don’t turn the ball over, they are damn near unstoppable.
Over the last few years in Kansas City, the big plays have dwindled as defenses made the necessary adjustments to take them away. This trend is likely to continue with Tyreek Hill taking his talents to South Beach. Juju and MVS will do their best to fill the void, but impossible not to feel the loss of a player with Hills type of talent/speed. Despite the Chiefs going to 4 straight AFC Championship games, and Mahomes going over 4k yards in his first 4 years as a starter, this team is getting significantly less buzz than usual.
Their draft shouldn’t go overlooked, most notably adding first rounders Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis. They also went out and signed Justin Ried (Texans). Will it be enough to fix all their problems? Unlikely, BUT it should give them enough pieces to stop the bleeding and lessen the burden on offense.
Ultimately letting Reek walk was inevitable, considering the amount of money Mahomes will take up for the foreseeable future. So good on the Chiefs for recognizing the situation and getting some draft picks before it was too late. Kansas City arguably has the #1 QB, O-line, and head coach – which makes it damn near impossible to fade. We aren’t all over ‘em, but a 10.5 win total and the hardest schedule in the NFL tell us oddsmakers know this team is still going to be a big problem. There is a ton of buzz surrounding every other team in the AFC West, but from a division perspective, kings stay kings.
The Bet: Chiefs to win AFC West (+155); George Karlaftis DROY (+800)
Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Record: 10-7
2022 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4000
Amazingly, the Raiders trailed in 15/17 games last year, and still found a way to win 10 of them. They went 4-0 in OT, and 7-2 in one score games - both of which are sure to regress.
Josh McDaniels will take the reins in Vegas. Despite having a more than competent QB, and adding superstars Devonte Adams and Chandler Jones, he will certainly have his work cut out for him. Signing FA’s is certainly a piece to building a contender, but the ungodly ability to have a half decent draft is unavoidable. It’s truly impressive how poor this team has been at finding/developing talent.
The Raiders face one of the most difficult schedules, and their price to miss the playoffs is all the signal we need to tell us this team is going in the wrong direction.
The Bet: Raiders to miss the playoffs (-215)
Los Angeles Chargers
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Win Total: 10
SB Odds: +1400
Forget all the excitement on Herbert for a second, and let’s talk about how talented this defense is. Adding Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson is massive, but they also signed some big-time guys to bulk up the defensive line, which is even more critical considering they ranked dead last against the run last year. Defensive minded coach Brandon Staley will have more talent than he knows what to do with. In fact, across both sides of the ball it’s going to be difficult to find a more complete roster.
Typically, we aren’t ones to buy the hype, but the Chargers simply possess too much proven talent to ignore. Coupled with the chip on their shoulder after an ill-advised timeout cost them a trip to the playoffs, we think they will be a force late in the year.
Despite missing the postseason in 2021, the Chargers enter this year with a very high win total and Herbert as the favorite to lead the league in passing yards (+650) and MVP (+900). It’s time for OC Anthony Lynn to take the training wheels off and really let Herbert cook.
The Bet: Chargers to win AFC (+850); Herbert MVP (+900)
AFC South
Odds to win Division:
Colts -125
Titans +170
Jags +750
Texans +2500
Houston Texas
2021 Record: 4-13
2022 Win Total: 4.5
SB Odds: +30000
For an average weekend or college basketball Saturday, one trend we like to pay attention to is to tail the highest over, and the lowest under. Nothing could be more low or under than this years Houston Texans. From a sheer talent perspective, they will be marching out the worst roster in the NFL. But have no fear Texans fans, because your team promoted the worst coach in the NFL to lead the men into battle. How Lovie Smith continues to get head coaching opportunities is one of the worlds greatest mysteries.
Now for more bad news - Houston will play one of most difficult schedules, and (as of today) they won’t be favored for a single game this year. Last year they had the lowest rate of scoring drives and the lowest rate of drives to make the red-zone. Not only for 2021, but for any team since 2018! Having a 4.5 win total says a lot, but having that low of a total AND playing the NFC East and Jags (x2), says more. A fun game to circle on your calendar (unless your a masseuse) is Browns @ Texans week 13 when DWat returns.
Second year QB and human Giraffe Davis Mills might actually be something to build around, and Rookie RB Dameon Pierce showing flashes of greatness are about as high of a ceiling as anyone can hope for. Until Lovies gone, short ‘em every which way.
The Bet: UNDER 4.5 Wins (+100)
Indianapolis Colts
2021 Record: 9-8
2022 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2200
Frank Reich enters his 5th year with his 5th different QB. Despite the carousel, he continued to get the most out of whoever it is leading the offense, just not in the beginning of the season.
Matt Ryan will get his shake and should be an improvement over Wentz. The problem with an ever changing QB is that it has always lead to early season troubles for the Colts. A stat that you are about to hear a ton before Week 1 kickoff is “Frank Reich is 0-4 in openers”, but it’s actually much worse than that. Indy is 0 for their last 8 in Week 1.
Everyone is all over the Colts this year, and it’s not a terrible play on paper. QB improvement, signing Stephon Gilmore on defense, Frank Reich is one of the better coaches in the NFL, incredibly week division, third easiest schedule in the NFL. We could go one and on. Jonathan Taylor. Michal Pittman primed to break out. Get the point?
This team is huge BUYER BEWARE for us. You won’t find a soul fading the Colts or not picking them to win the division.
The Bet: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Record: 3-14
2022 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +12000
Nobody spent more money this offseason than the Jags. It was so absurd that they damn near spent $100 million more than the next closest team! In true Jags stay Jags fashion they miraculously don’t even have much to show for their $270M shopping spree.
As bad a things look, it’s really difficult to perform any worse than what Urban Meyer did last year, and no matter what Doug Peterson will likely look like a hero. There isn’t much to say about this squad, their season isn’t about wins and losses, it’s about restoring some confidence in the 2021 INT leader Trevor Lawrence. As much as we want to fade, we’d much rather put our money on Lovie Smith as the man to short in the AFC South.
The Bet: Pass
Tennessee Titans
2021 Record: 12-5
2022 Win Totals: 9.5
SB Odds: +3500
Out of all the talent in the AFC it’s remarkable that the Titans were the #1 seed last year. Yes, it’s easy to forget when Ryan Tannenhill goes vintage Ryan Tannenhill and throws 3 picks against the Bengals in the first round. A massive amount of credit goes out to 2021 Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel for his regular season performance. Derrick Henry missed significant time and he was still able to secure the playoff BYE. Their schedule was no joke either - beating up on Matt Stafford, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.
Most notably in the offseason the Titans lost WR AJ Brown. Replacing him with rookie Treylon Burkes and Robert Woods is likely going to be a big step in the wrong direction. For us, this team is all about Vrabel, and we sure as shit aren’t going to fade him based on last year and four straight seasons of at least 9 wins.
Nothing much to be excited about in Tennessee, as we’re sure this team will compete every week and pull some shocking upsets, but Tannenhill might be on his last go around and could come up just short of their win total.
The Bet: Pass
RECAP:
Courtland Sutton Over - 950.5 Yards
Chiefs to win AFC West (+155)
George Karlaftis DROY (+800)
Raiders to miss the playoffs (-215)
Chargers to win AFC (+850)
Herbert MVP (+900)
Texans UNDER 4.5 Wins (+100)