NFL Week 1 & College Football Week 2
We Made It
Say goodbye to your family and your summer body - football is back.
It’s been a fun offseason. From Russell Wilson getting traded, Zach Wilson banging his mom’s friends (mormons, amirite?) and now Brady/Giselle divorce rumors. No shortage of distractions to get us through the summer.
If you’re new to The Degenerate, then welcome! We’ll be sending a weekly email with our best bets in both NFL and College Football. You’ll find that we typically fade the public and like to follow sharp money. However, we’re not here to spoon-feed you “locks”, but rather share our perspective that you can reference before placing your wagers. What we like to emphasize: bet responsibly, and make your own decisions.
The first week of any football season is always tough to cap. Clearly this stems from no sample size of a previous weeks performance to determine whether we are buying low or selling high. All we really have to go off right now is hype and skepticism. But we can also look at trends - the most important one being that dogs tend to bark early. Week 1 underdogs are 53-39 ATS the last 5 years. You’ll notice we will be honing in on this early, as we are not one to fade trends (although we don’t blindly tail either).
Enjoy the ride!
NFL - WEEK 1
Raiders @ Chargers -3 Total 52 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Raise your hand if you’ve said “Derek Carr is the most underrated QB in the NFL” this offseason. Hopefully no one did, but every single hot take panelist has been singing this guys praises. Don’t get us wrong, he is more than serviceable. Derek is a starter in the NFL, but he is not an MVP candidate, and he is not going to return to the playoffs. He’s Kirk Cousins with eyeliner. His ceiling is a Playoff appearance resulting in a first round loss. People are going to get cute here and take the Raiders with the points, but not us. After eliminating the Charges from the Playoffs last year, we smell… revenge! We are all over the Chargers and Justin Herbert this year, as he’s one of our MVP Picks (+900), and we’ll be backing them right out of the gate.
The Pick: Chargers -3
Saints @ Falcons +5.5 Total 42.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
I bet you’ve heard a lot of Saints love lately, haven’t you? Season win total over, make the playoffs and hell maybe even a sprinkle to win the division! Hard pass for us. Too many question marks to invest in them this season. As for the Falcons - nobody and I mean NOBODY wants anything to do with this team. DraftKings could offer a free $100 bet exclusively for the Falcons to win over 5.5 games this year, and people would let it expire. There’s always an upset in Week 1 that nobody saw coming. This year, we think it could be the dirty birds. It’s a rematch of Jameis and Mariota - the 2015 1st and 2nd overall draft picks. The first time they met, the Titans killed the Bucs, and Jameis’ first pass was a pick 6. Jameis revenge? Nah…it’s a Mariota repeat.
The Pick: Falcons +5.5
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5 Total 44.5
Nobody wants to fade the Steelers on their season win total because of Mike Tomlin, but they sure as shit don’t want to back them Week 1. The Bengals are a very popular bet after their SB run last year. Do we expect a hangover from them? Absolutely. We’re betting the Bengals to miss the playoffs at +120, and fading them early as we back the former pro- bowler Mitch Trubisky (see pic for proof) led Steelers.
The Bengals have gotten 70% of the bets, yet the line isn’t moving. This tells us the Steelers at +7 would be too much of a liability for Vegas, and that’s why we want them. Last year Cincy embarrassed Pittsburgh in both games by a combined score of 65-20. Tomlin may not shock the world with a win, but he’ll fight like hell to keep it close.
The Pick: Steelers +6.5
Jaguars @ Commanders -2.5 Total 44
There’s no sugar coating it - Carson Wentz is terrible. We may not have believed it going into last year, but Frank Reich and the Colts letting him walk tells you everything you need to know. No team is going to do anything worth noting as long as he’s leading the way.
Typically we we follow the sharp money and don’t like betting against a line move, but we’re doing it here. The Commanders opened -4 and are getting the majority of bets, yet the line is now down to -2.5. This is called a reverse line move, and is usually the side we like to be on. Despite the majority of bets coming in on one team, this means the “smart money” or bigger bets are hitting Jacksonville. We’re going against everything we stand for and sticking with Washington.
The narrative all off-season is that Wentz sucks and the new look Jags could make some noise. Carson may be on his last leg, but you know he’s looking to spite Doug Pederson for hanging him out to dry in Philly. Some are saying Wentz was one of the most inaccurate QB’s in the NFL last year (he was), but we think the rest of the Commanders team gets it done.
The Pick: Commanders -2.5
Browns @ Panthers -1.5 Total 42
One day, this game will be the final NFL focused chapter of Baker Mayfield’s memoir. We certainly aren’t here to shit on the guy, but going to a worse team, with a worse o-line, coach, WR’s, and defense will take its toll. Props to Baker for playing through injury, but also…maybe go take a nap? He was clearly hurting the Browns last year while earning himself a the Tough Man of the Year Award. Now, he’s giving Myles Garrett and the defense some unnecessary bulletin board material.
Matt Rhule is quite literally coaching for his life, and things could get ugly quick. You won’t find a soul looking to bet on journeyman Jacoby Brissett, especially with how terrible he looked in Miami last year. This one is about looking at sharp money, which has been hammering the Browns leading up to kickoff, and trusting the better coach. We’ll take 2020 COY Kevin Stefanski over favorite to be fired first (+225) Rhule every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.
The Pick: Browns +1.5
Broncos @ Seahawks +6.5 Total 44.5
This is it! One of the ugliest matchups of the weekend saved for Primetime MNF. If you read our season previews you know we are not on the fade Seattle train, especially now that they named Geno Smith the starter. We think Russ’s return to Seattle will be closer than people expect. Here’s why:
New HC, OC, and QB in Denver
Geno Smith > Drew Lock
Pete Carroll’s desire to run the ball and play conservative
Two respectable, under-appreciated defenses
Seattles 12th man
Get the picture? Games like this separate the men from the boys, the pros from the joes, the awkwardly feminine from the possibly Canadian. All the bets and money are on the Broncos, but we are getting NASTY and backing the home dog here. Seahawks Country…LET’S RIDE!
The Pick: Seahawks +7.5 (buy 1 pt)
Bookie Pick of the Week: Do we love it? Not really. Do we like it? Enough for opening weekend! Our bookie is sharp as a tac, and we don’t question his picks. Whatever he says goes in the newsletter, especially because they’re always the grossest, nastiest, contrarian plays on the board.
The Pick: Patriots +3.5
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Packers @ Vikings UNDER 47
This total opened 49.5, yet has moved down 2.5 points to 47, despite the over getting 65% of the bets. The public always loves betting overs as is, but even more so with Aaron Rodgers vs a new look Vikings offense now ran by former Rams OC Kevin O’Connell. Hate being late to the party and getting a bad number, but this one is so sharp and contrarian that we can’t resist.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
Louisville @ UCF -6.5 Total 61.5
L’Ville was one of the sharpest lines on the board last week, and smart money got burned. The Cardinals got crushed 31-7 against Syracuse. Now they’ve been sitting at 6.5 point dogs all week while UCF takes in 75% of the bets, yet the number hasn’t budged. This is the bend don’t break theory - don’t be so quick to overreact and abandon Louisville.
The Pick: Louisville +6.5
#24 Tennessee @ #17 Pitt +6.5 Total 66
We might be walking into a square play here without realizing it, but don’t care. If you read our season previews you know we are high on Tennessee. Backed them last week -36 against Ball State and they covered with ease. We think Hendon Hooker and this Vols offense is the real deal, and will lay it with them against a fraudulent Pitt team.
The Pick: Tennessee -6.5
#20 Kentucky @ #12 Florida +6 Total 52.5
Did you get your AR-15 Heisman ticket yet or what? Don’t love fading Anthony Richardson, but this feels like a prime letdown spot for the Gators after that big win against top ranked Utah. However, the line is on the move, and we don’t like going against it. Florida is up from -4.5 to -6. We hope to see late buyback on UK here, but if there isn’t, we will be aborting the pick. Follow us on twitter if you want to stay updated @thedegenweekly.
The Pick: Kentucky +6
Iowa State @ Iowa -3.5 Total 40.5
Neither of these teams are expected to be very good this year, but Iowa just beat South Dakota State 7-3 in opening week. Yes, you read that score correctly. After that performance, the public are all over ISU here. State is getting 70% of the bets, yet the Hawkeyes remain -3.5 favorites all week. This feels like an overreaction spot against Iowa where they struggled, but perhaps didn’t open 95% of their playbook. In Kirk Ferentz we trust.
The Pick: Iowa -3.5
Kansas @ WVU -13.5 Total 60
Kansas stinks, and has so for a while, but they have a chip on their shoulder. WVU just lost a game they shouldn’t have at Pitt last week, and now they’re looking to bounce back, and bettors are expecting them to do so. WVU is getting 75% of the bets, but say NOT SO FAST! The Jayhawks are out to show they’re no longer a BYE week.
The Pick: Kansas +13.5
Old Dominion @ ECU -12.5 Total 51.5
ODU was quite the trendy dog last week. Public and sharps were all over them against Va Tech, and they won outright. I’m sure it left a good taste in everyones mouth. Sure, ECU played NC State tough and almost won if it wasn’t for their shit kicker. On the surface, this looks like too many points. Tickets look even, but money is hitting ECU. The line did move down from -13 to -12.5, so we are concerned a bit, but going with our gut on this in thinking 13 is a lot of respect for ECU after ODU’s big upset.
The Pick: ECU -12.5
#10 USC @ Stanford +9 Total 67
We usually fade hype, but there’s always some we buy. This year - it’s USC. In our season preview we wrote about how we are all in on Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams. Yet here we are in Week 2 about to fade them. Why is that, you ask? Because the line is moving in the wrong direction if you’re a Trojan fan. USC opened -11.5 in Palo Alto. They’re getting almost 90% of bets and money, but the line has now almost moved 3 points the other way. This is a reverse line move towards Stanford which tells us there’s a nice opportunity to get a big home dog in a sharp, contrarian spot. We will be on that every chance we can.
The Pick: Stanford +9
#9 Baylor @ #21 BYU -3.5 Total 53.5
This is a classic “is the wrong team favored?” line. The answer to the question is almost always no. The oddsmakers don’t make mistakes often. Trust their number over yours and the publics perception. This is an auto play for us simply based on the #21 ranked team in the country being ranked against #9 Baylor, who also won the Big 12 last year. Something in the Vegas super computer simulation says BYU is the better team, and we won’t try to outsmart them.
The Pick: BYU -3.5
Arkansas State @ #3 Ohio State -44.5 Total 68.5
This is a VERY high total for an offense that struggled to score 21 points last week. Sure, it was against a top ranked team and defense, but still. Any time a total is touching 70 after a low scoring game the previous week, it should catch your attention. The over is only taking 38% of the bets, but 74% (!) of the money. YUM. We also like that the line is moving towards the big favorite as well. The Buckeyes might get there themselves.
The Pick: Over 68.5
Southern Miss @ Miami -25 Total 51
We personally punched this total in at 54 midweek, and it’s been on the move since. Sometimes we sit and wait before putting a bet in to see if there’s any buyback, but the opener was already little suspicious at 57. After Miami put up over 70 points last week, sharps are now expecting a close/ugly game against SMU. Miami also went from -26 down to -25. Smart money likes the big dog and the under. Late to the party here for newsletter purposes, but we will honor the posted number for our record.
The Pick: Under 51
RECAP:
NFL
Chargers -3
Falcons +5.5
Steelers +6.5
Commanders -2.5
Browns +1.5
Seahawks +7.5 (buy 1 pt)
GB/MINN Under 47
CFB
Louisville +6.5
Tennessee -6.5
Kentucky +6
Iowa -3.5
Kansas +13.5
ECU -12.5
Stanford +9
BYU -3.5
Ark St/OSU Over 68.5
SMU/Miami Under 51