NFL Week 10 & College Football Week 11
Halfway Home
Midway point of the regular season - appreciate the chaos.
Just as we all expected: the Seahawks are in 1st place of the NFC West, the Packers and Bears share the same 3-6 record, the Jets just took down the Super Bowl Favorite Buffalo Bills as a double digit underdog, and Kirk Cousins has won 7 one possession games. Brilliant!
The midway point has brought with it the 2nd coach to be fired, as we say goodbye to Frank Reich, and hello…Jeff Saturday?! The Playoff picture is starting to develop and the real fun is about to begin. Time to tighten up for the home stretch!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 34-29-3 (+2.90 Units)
CFB: 47-35 (+5.69 Units)
NFL Week 10
Browns @ Dolphins +3.5 Total 49.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
It’s borderline concerning how much I love the Browns this weekend.
Your first thoughts about this matchup are probably the same as mine. This new look Miami Dolphins offense is really fucking good, and the Browns defense is really fucking bad. But then you look at the line, and see the Dolphins went from 4.5 to 3.5 point favorites. Cleveland is only getting 30% of the bets, but 49% of the handle (!). Now, why in the world would $$ be hitting a 3-6 Browns team that’s lost 4/5 going against one of the hottest teams in the league?
Four words: Jacoby Brissett Revenge Game!
Actually, it could be that Kevin Stefanski is 2-0 after a BYE week, but that’s no fun. What we like to think (because we’re idiots who like fun) is that Deshaun Watson is returning form suspension soon, so Brissett’s time is coming to an end. The West Palm native played for the Dolphins last season, and what better way to go out than stringing together a few impressive wins.
We see you, Jacoby. We hear you, Jacoby. We’re putting a unit on you, Jacoby.
The Pick: Browns +3.5
Chargers @ 49ers -7 Total 45.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
For those of you new to us, the Degen is typically not a place for hot takes and Stephen A./Skip Bayless rants, but I gotta let loose with this one.
Brandon Staley is one of the worst coaches in the NFL. If not for Justin Herbert he would be fired by now, and until he’s gone, he’s going to keep them in purgatory. 8-9; 9-8; miss the playoffs; lose in wildcard round. Rinse, repeat. The guy has been gifted more talent than anyone and continues to make poor decisions in the heat of the moment that prevent this team from reaching its full potential. “But Greg – he’s had a ton of injuries”. Can’t argue that, but so has Kyle Shanahan and he’s able to overcome the hardships. The Chargers just can’t seem to get over the hump of mediocrity. Hell, Justin Herbert is one of the best up and coming QB’s and he’s .500! Ok – thanks for bearing with me, onto the game.
Despite his career record, Herbert is a fantasy darling, and because of it the Chargers frequently draw the public’s attention. Putting them at +7 has certainly had that effect as public and sharps are coming to back them this week. And guess what – the line hasn’t moved. Vegas knows Shanahan is a better coach, the Chargers can’t stop the run, and deserve a steep price.
Shanahan vs. Staley is chess vs checkers. Give me the guy coming off a BYE with a better game-plan despite the high number.
The Bet: 49ers -7
Seahawks vs. Buccaneers -2.5 Total 44.5
Willkommen in München! The NFL Debuts in Germany with what should be a good one. Apparently the Germans love the NFL, who knew?!
The Seahawks were one of the first teams hit their season win total (along with the God Damn Jets). The Bucs have been one of the biggest disappointments of the year. Mix those two factors together and Germany is in for a much better match-up than any pre-season rankings would have expected.
Tampa’s coming off a last-minute miracle drive to save their season, and we’re riding the momentum. It feels like it was the first step in righting the Buccaneers ship. The travel for this one is no joke, and Seattle certainly has the disadvantage as they’ll be playing at 6:30am PT.
Can’t blame the public for liking Seattle as they continue to deliver. For us, it’s as simple as fading the trendy dog, and backing a favorite who has shown absolutely no reason to support them. Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker have looked like superstars this year, but the Bucs defense is significantly better than anything they have faced. We’re betting on Devin White and crew to step up big so Brady can expand the TB12 brand into Deutschland.
Side note - if you’re in your 20’s and you haven’t been to Oktoberfest, what are you waiting for? And pay up for the good Lederhosen, or get a beer poured on your head for disrespecting the culture.
(Greg @ Ocktoberfest 2016)
The Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Saints @ Steelers +1.5 Total 40
In a world where sex sells, absolutely no one is buying a Saints/Steelers matchup. But these are the spots of value in this life we’ve chosen. The line is moving towards Pittsburgh, but it’s more likely a signal that TJ Watt will play. Although, it’s worth noting the Steelers are getting 40% of the bets and 46% of the money. It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh is having a historically bad year offensively.
Andy Dalton continues his AFC North reunion tour after a loss vs Baltimore and now returning to Heinz (Acrisure) Field. This might be the last time, as his return as a starting QB is in a complete tailspin. Can’t imagine how bad Jameis has looked for them to continue to trust in Andy. Everything about this game is going to be gross, but we see a bit of value in Pittsburgh as a short dog that no one wants to pet.
The Pick: Steelers +1.5
Cowboys @ Packers +4.5 Total 43
No one is talking about it, but there is evidence that the ghost of Queen Elizabeth is haunting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Shorty after her death the Pack traveled to London and shockingly lost to the Giants. Since then, it’s been one embarrassing loss after another, as they have now lost five straight. We don’t know how much lower this team can sink, but it doesn’t get worse than losing to the longtime divisional punching bag Detroit Lions.
Over this losing streak the Pack have only lost one game in Lambeau, and that was after traveling back from London. After that they’ve been on a 3-game road trip, so some time back in Green Bay could be just what the Shaman ordered.
23% of the bets are on the Pack, but 45% of the money. This should certainly catch your eye because it would take an absolute lunatic to back them after that performance in Detroit. If the Lions can hold the Packers offense to 9 points, then just imagine what this Cowboys D can do! However, Green Bay matches up nicely against the Dallas D, because the Cowboys are great against the pass and mediocre against the run.
We think Mike McCarthy’s return to Lambeau is the fire Rodgers needs under his ass right now.
The Pick: Green Bay +4.5
Texans @ Giants -4.5 Total 41 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Jake likes his best bet like his third* martini – filthy! And this one is the ugliest bet on the board.
The Brian Daboll led Giants have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season. Now, they return from their BYE to play a hapless, one-win Texans team. In our opinion, the line opened a bit low for the Gmen at -6.5. Now despite taking most of the bets, the Giants have moved down to -4. This type of movement would typically signal a significant injury, but there’s nothing to note in NY. In fact, the biggest injury concern is Texans running back and Dan Mullen afterthought Dameion Pierce. 28% of the bets on Houston, injury concerns to best offensive player, line moving in their favor…make it make sense!
Chalk this one up to “Vegas knows something we don’t” and hope for the best.
*First two are ALWAYS Espresso.
The Pick: Texans +4
Come on Over, Over: Jaguars @ Chiefs -9.5 Total 51
Sure, the Chiefs warrant a high total, but what about the Jaguars? 4 of their last 5 have gone under, and yet Vegas opens this one up with the highest total of the weekend… Only 34% of the bets are on the over, but it’s on the rise. Let’s get it Christina!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11
#20 Notre Dame vs Navy +15.5 Total 39.5
This 3-6 Navy team is one of the worst We’ve seen in a while. However, they aren’t terrible at covering spreads, like they just did last week against Cincinnati. The Midshipmen find themselves 5-4 ATS on the season. Notre Dame is fresh off an upset win against #4 Clemson where they dominated from start to finish. Having to play a military school the following week is not ideal. This is a classic letdown spot, and the sharps know it. 63% of the bets are on the Irish, but Navy is getting 55% of the money. The line is moving accordingly, as it opened 16.5 and now down to 15.5.
The Pick: Navy +15.5
#23 Liberty @ UConn +14.5 Total 45.5
We will keep this short, as it’s practically the same situation and reasoning for the Navy pick. Liberty just beat Arkansas outright as a 14 point road dog. You expect them to keep that same energy against boring as UConn? This has sleepwalk for Liberty written all over it.
The Pick: UConn +14.5
Pittsburgh @ Virginia +4.5 Total 40.5
We were on Pitt last week as they fit our system of unranked favorite against a ranked opponent, and took care of business against Syracuse. The public loves chasing a team that just over-performed when they play an inferior opponent the following week with a short spread. That’s exactly what we have here. Virginia stinks out loud, and most bettors don’t think twice about laying this short number with the “better” team. Pitt opened 3.5 and is now up to 4.5. If this line continues to move, we might be officially off. For now, we will be backing Virginia.
The Pick: Virginia +4.5
North Texas @ UAB -5.5 Total 57.5
The random games are the best games. UAB is 4-5 on the year, and hast lost 3 straight games. Meanwhile, North Texas is 6-4 and just beat FIU by 38, and WKU by 27. So two teams trending in opposite directions, yet the “worse” one is favored by 5.5 points? Interesting…
The Pick: UAB -5.5
Kansas @ Texas Tech -3.5 Total 64.5
The Kansas Jayhawks just got back on everyone’s good side after pummeling Oklahoma State last weekend. KU now finds themselves 6-3 on the season and 7-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech has had an up and down year, but it’s been more down as of late. The Red Raiders have lost 3 of their last 4, including a 28 point drubbing at home to Baylor two weeks ago. Feels like the “wrong team is favored” here, as the public bettor would say. 68% of the bets are on Kansas getting the points, but the line hasn’t moved. Why is that? Because 48% of the handle is on Tech.
The Pick: Texas Tech -3.5
#1 Georgia @ Mississippi State +16.5 Total 53.5
Call us crazy, but this line seems a little short for a Georgia team that just beat the #1 team in the country by 14 points. Miss State just struggled to get a win at home vs Auburn, who’s one of the worst teams in the SEC. They also lost to Bama by 24 the week before that. Now Georgia, who just manhandled Tennessee, is barely laying 3 scores? 80% of the bets are on the Dogs, but the line hasn’t moved. That tells us the liability it with Mike Leach. We’ll take it.
The Pick: Miss St +16.5
#15 UNC @ #22 Wake Forest -4.5 Total 76.5
The days of Wake Forest and Sam Hartman being public darlings are long gone. After back-to-back losses against NC State and Louisville, your average bettor wants nothing to do with this team.
Since losing to Notre Dame at home, the Tar Heels have ripped off 5 straight wins. It’s no surprise that they’re receiving the majority of the bets. Yet, the line opened Wake -3.5 and has now moved to 4.5 as of this morning. That’s because the Deacons are getting 68% of the money.
The Pick: Wake Forest -4.5
App State @ Marshall +1.5 Total 47.5
We thought this line looked a little short, and then when we dug into the betting data, it made our card. These two teams share the same 5-4 record, but App State is way more popular with the betting public. The short opener wouldn’t raise our eyebrow if the line shot up a few points…but it hasn’t. App St only went from -1 to -1.5, despite getting 81% of the bets and 88% of the money. If the books are reluctant to give Marshall at a better number, there must be a reason.
The Pick: Marshall +1.5
Jovan’s Best Bet @jovan_deeb
#7 LSU @ Arkansas +3 Total 62.5
The story for this line writes itself. Arkansas is coming off an embarrassing loss at home to a Liberty team led by their backup QB, and LSU is coming off an electric defeat of Bama in Death Valley and a blowout of previously 7th-ranked Ole Miss the week prior. Arkansas only being 3.5-point dogs in this game is one of the more baffling lines I’ve seen all season. They haven’t even really been great at home all year, either. Other than the week 1 win against Cincinnati, their resume at home includes a win vs Missouri State that required them to come back from down 17-0, a shootout with South Carolina where Spencer Rattler threw for almost 400 yards, a 23-point drubbing at the hands of Alabama, and the Liberty loss last week.
On LSU’s side, while they have looked great the last two weeks, they’ve been at home against two teams who haven’t exactly proven themselves on the road. LSU’s two road games were a dogfight with a bad Florida team and a game they should’ve dropped to Auburn. Look for LSU to come out a bit slow on both sides of the ball. The health of KJ Jefferson seems to be a question mark but I can only assume the line is an indicator that he plays. Unless he gets ruled out and the line steams to LSU, it doesn’t make a difference to me anyway. Give me the Hogs to catch LSU in a prime letdown spot and keep this one within a FG.
The Pick: Arkansas +3
RECAP:
NFL
Browns +3.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
49ers -7 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Steelers +1.5
Packers +4.5
Texans +4 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Jags/Chiefs OVER 51
CFB
Navy +15.5
UConn +14.5
Virginia +4.5 (If line moves further, abort)
UAB -5.5
Texas Tech -3.5
Miss St +16.5
Wake Forest -4.5
Marshall +1.5
Arkansas +3.5