NFL Week 10 & College Football Week 11
The Back 9
We follow-up one of our best weeks of the year with one of our worst - fun stuff! Not a terrible effort, but just shy of the winning side in college and NFL. We learned some things (never bet on Clayton Tune) and we are ready to let loose.
Only three more loaded College Football Saturdays.
The second half of the NFL.
Get on board. We aren’t slowing down.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 33-18 (+11.65 Units)
CFB: 32-33-2 (-4.04 Units)
NFL WEEK 10
49ers at Jaguars +3 Total 45.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
If you’ve been following me on twitter for a while, then you’d know I can’t hit a “square” bet to save my life. These are typical the obvious/don’t overthink it plays where you simply take the better team to win. The public is on it, the sharps are sometimes on it, and I go against everything I stand for as a contrarian to just take what I feel is the easy play. We call it the Squares Table, and Degen is never welcome.
But fuck that. I’m demanding a chair and service this weekend with the San Francisco 49ers coming off the bye. You don’t read this newsletter for incredibly in depth analysis of why we are making the bets we make. We’re a bunch of idiots who do this for fun, and typically try to read the lines or go with our plums. So let me tell you that this might be the most simple and obvious reasoning for a best bet you’ll ever see me make (besides the Joe Burrow bounce back game that didn’t happen in week 2, hehe). The Niners have lost 3 straight games and haven’t won a game in a month. ONE MONTH. The fucking 49ers haven’t won a game in over a month! That is outrageous. This team is built to win a Super Bowl, and they have hit a rut. I want to buy low, as I’m sure most people do and will. The bye week is just what this team needed, while also acquiring DE Chase Young from the Washington Commanders. They are also getting Deebo back, but Trent Williams is still questionable.
So you’ve got one team on the decline and hungry for a win coming out the bye, going against the Jags who were in the complete opposite situation. Jacksonville was ROLLING having won (AND covered) 5 straight games. After a 1-2 start to the season, this team got right during its two week stint in England. But as my guy Greg pointed out two weeks ago when we took the Panthers against Houston, sometimes a bye week is the worst thing to happen to a hot team, and we want to fade.
I’m squaring up every which way with the Niners. Give me them to be the highest scoring team this weekend as well (+1300 on FD). Service, please!
The Pick: 49ers -3 (-110)
Commanders at Seahawks -6.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
After winning and covering back to back home games, the Seahawks traveled East and got destroyed by a thriving Ravens team. Now they head home after the embarrassing loss for a matchup with the Commanders.
Sure, Seattle hasn’t looked like anything special as of late, but they played two of the toughest defenses in the NFL. The Commanders defense is going to be a welcomed breath of fresh air in comparison to the Hawks recent competition, especially after selling off some of their best defensive assets before the trade deadline.
We missed on Rivera to be first coach fired, but that doesn’t mean we have any belief in this team. The Commanders just pulled off a big win against the Patriots to keep the season on life support another week, but heading to Seattle is rarely the cure.
I am not a Geno guy. I am not a Pete Carroll guy. I am a guy who recognized this situation as the perfect “get right” opportunity for the Seahawks. I am a guy who thinks DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba are well past due for a big game. I am a guy who recognizes the Commanders are one of the worst defenses in the league and ready to be exploited. This number feels right, but my gut is telling me the Seahawks are ready to unload after a massive dud in Baltimore.
The Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-115)
Jets at Raiders +1 Total 36.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Steak was all over the Raiders last week for an easy cash. Now it’s time to run the other direction. Dare we say the Raiders went from lowest of lows to the highest of highs in just a few short days after the McDaniels fire?
Regression meet Mean. J! E! T! S! Steak! Steak! Steak!
The Pick: Jets ML (-110)
Lions at Chargers +3 Total 48.5
Every week there comes a game where you fluctuate on what’s right and what’s wrong. What’s a winner and what’s the obvious loser. The games with the biggest internal monologue of what the right side is tend to produce the highest hit rate. The ones where you have to stand along and look past the obvious.
It’s very very easy to like the Lions here. They’re off a bye and they’re getting healthy. Meanwhile the Chargers haven’t done anything impressive all year, they’re on a short week and just traveled back across the country.
The Lions won 5/6 heading into their bye week, but the talent they faced at the QB position was as weak as it gets. Wins over Ridder, Love, Young, Mayfield, Garoppolo. At best two of those guys are starters in 2024 and zero in 2025. Herbert is down, but he’s not out. His WR’s are banged up, but Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler are a full go.
This game is strictly a contrarian play. Maybe the Chargers are figuring it out after Brandon Staley shaved his stupid beard. Maybe the healthy restore for the Lions is a bit too obvious. Maybe the Chargers aren’t ready for this run game and pass defense. Maybe, maybe, maybe. The only thing we are banking on is everyone sees this one as easy money Lions.
The Pick: Chargers +3 (-110)
Come on Over, Over: Packers at Steelers Total 38.5
Ok full robot mode…
Steelers last five game totals: 30-36-24-23-36
Packers last four game totals: 30-41-37-36
In what world is this game going over? We don’t know either, but it’s our favorite total of the weekend.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11
#8 Alabama at Kentucky +11
Let me tell ya after having LSU last weekend that there is nothing fun about fading Alabama. This team is fucking rolling right now, and Jalen Milroe looks like a completely different QB than what we saw early this season. Props to Tommy Rees (ugh) and Saban for designing the offense to his strengths. The efficiency on his deep ball is incredible, and he’s become impossible to stop with his legs. So why are we fading Bama again? Because we’re sick fucks who can’t help but think this line feels like a ton of respect for UK. There’s a good chance we’re wrong, and we can respectfully disagree, but we can’t comprehend how this Bama team is only opening -10.5 against a UK team that’s lost 3/4 including a 17 point loss to Missouri and 38 point loss to Georgia. I expected Bama to be two touchdown favorites here, and the fact that they’re not tells me the Cats might claw and keep it close. Alabama has only played 3 road games, and they certainly haven’t looked as dominant when playing outside of their home crowd. After a stretch of 3 straight home games, let’s see if the Alabama offense can maintain the same success in enemy territory.
The Pick: Kentucky +11
Texas Tech at #16 Kansas -3.5
Fading another juggernaut that I’m sure we’ll regret. This week certainly feels like we are stubborn assholes trying to get our lost coin back, but sometimes the best weeks are when you feel the least comfortable about your card. That’s exactly what we are doing to get things started on this Saturday noon slate. Kansas survived the ultimate letdown spot last week with a win in Iowa St. Kansas is now ranked in the top 20 after after two straight wins to bounce back from their loss against OK State, but waiting for them this week is a Texas Tech team looking to play spoiler. The Red Raiders had high hopes this season, returning a ton of vets, but have underperformed. They just had a bye week then beat TCU at home on a Thursday night game. Now they’ve got a little extra time to prepare and we think that benefits the non trendy dog.
The Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Minnesota at Purdue -1.5
We were determined to gain a unit off these stupid ass gophers, and came away successful thanks to an Illinois legacy last weekend. Call us greedy, but we’re going back for more. Make no mistake - Purdue is a bad football team, but when’s the last time you saw a 2-7 favorite against a 5-4 team? Especially in conference. My senses are saying Minnesota is deflated after that Illinois loss, and Purdue plays with a little pride this weekend.
The Pick: Purdue ML (-115)
#15 Oklahoma St at UCF +2.5
OK State just took down Oklahoma. Ultimate letdown spot? Probably, but even if it wasn’t, I can’t help but stare at this spread and scratch my head. In my opinion this is the “fishiest” line of the weekend, and for that reason alone it has to be played.
The Pick: UCF +2.5
Fresno St at San Jose St -1.5
This read is slightly similar to Purdue. SJSU has a 4-5 record and somehow went from dog —> favorite against an 8-1 Fresno team. Interesting. Perhaps the Bulldogs are a bit of a fraud? Can’t say we’re experts or have watched much of these teams, but anytime we see this sort of line movement with the discrepancy of records, it catches our attention and is typically a must play.
The Pick: SJSU -1.5
RECAP:
NFL
Niners -3 (-110)
Seahawks -6.5 (-115)
Jets ML (-110)
Chargers +3 (-110)
GB/PIT Over 38.5 (-115)
CFB
Kentucky +11 (-110)
Texas Tech +3.5 (-110)
Purdue ML (-115)
UCF +2.5 (-110)
SJSU -1.5 (-110)
Min & Cin did cover after playing SF the week before this season though. Just throw it out there
Min beat Gb and Cin beat Buf.😉