NFL Week 11 & College Football Week 12
Football X Fútbol
The sports equinox can’t hold a candle to what we’re about to experience. The World Cup is kicking off on Sunday!
Listen - we know American Football is god around these parts, but for the next 3 weeks we get some gambling action starting as early as 5am. Our one promise to our subscribers has always been to limit the amount of emails we’re sending to once a week, and we want to hold true…but you can bet your ass we’ve got some WC futures.
So, if you’re interested in some World Cup gambling analysis then check out our website below. We will be doing our best to get daily updates as the tournament unfolds. Spoiler alert: we like the host Qatar on Sunday over Ecuador.
Enough soccer talk - College football is wrapping up and the NFL is in full swing.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 36-33-3 (+.72 Units)
CFB: 54-37 (+9.15 Units)
NFL WEEK 11
Bears @ Falcons -3 Total 49.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Would you believe me if I told you that one of the hottest QB’s in the league is also leading an offense that’s ranked 32nd in passing yards? That’s right. Our man Justin Fields broke off the leg braces like Forrest Gump and HE. IS. RUNNING.
The Bears blew a two touchdown 4th quarter lead last weekend to the Lions, and have now lost 3 games in a row…but bettors don’t care about that. What they care about is Justin Fields becoming the #1 fantasy QB (who I traded 4 week ago lol) and this offense putting up 30+ points per game like it’s nothing. And remember those trendy 6-0 ATS Falcons? Yea nobody wants anything to do with them anymore, especially after a putrid TNF performance in Carolina where they lost outright and only put up 15 points.
This line doesn’t necessarily seem wrong, but the lack of movement is telling. The Bears are of course getting all the bets (88%) and all the money (84%) according to VSIN.com. However, the line hasn’t budged from the opener of -3. That’s what catches my eye, and that’s why I’ll be on Atlanta.
The Pick: Falcons -3
Panthers @ Ravens -13 Total 41.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
53 weeks ago the Ravens were the #1 Seed in the AFC. Then Lamar got hurt, the defense suffered multiple key injuries, they lost six games in a row and ultimately missed the playoffs. But this year is different. The trade for Roquan Smith has taken this defense to another level, and opened the door for this team to go on an absolute tear down the stretch.
This week the Ravens are in for a special treat, as former division rival Baker Mayfield will get the start for Carolina on Sunday. A double digit favorite with a total set at 41.5 should tell you all you need to know about what Vegas thinks of Baker in this spot.
67% of the public is on Carolina, as recency bias weighs heavy. Last we saw the Panthers hold the Falcons at arms length on Thursday Night Football. This one is screaming too many points for the underdog, but we’re not taking the bait. Baltimore wire to wire.
The Pick: Ravens -13
Commanders @ Texans +3 Total 40.5
Hello, my name is The Degenerate and it’s been 6 days since my last bet on Lovie Smith. We damn near hate everything about his play, but it’s one to be made. Zyn master Taylor Heinicke will get the start over Carson Wentz after beating the Eagles on Monday night.
This is a spot where watching the games and thinking you know football is going to bite you right in the ass. Everyone knows Heinicke has the hot hand. Everyone knows Lovie Smith is a jackass and the Texans are awful. Since the Texans BYE week they haven’t been able to keep within a touchdown of their opponent. Who wouldn’t take the Commanders to win by a field goal on the road? They just knocked off the last remaining unbeaten team on the road in Philly.
The Heinicke Hype Train is getting a bit too hot for our liking, and we could see it going a bit off the rails in Houston. Despite taking 32% of the bets, 69% of the money is on the Texans, bring the +3.5 down to +3. That’s all we have to say about that.
The Pick: Texans +3
Bengals @ Steelers +4.5 Total 40.5
We called it early in the year and so far its 2/2. The Bengals embarrassed division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh last year - going 4-0 with a combined score across the four games of 147-58. Harbaugh and Tomlin took notes, and you’re seeing the results thus far as the Bengals are 0-3 in the division.
Cincinnati opened at -5 and is receiving the majority of the bets, but the number is moving in the Steelers favor. If you like the Steelers we’d suggest jumping on now, because this line might take another dip once Jamar Chase is officially ruled out as all signs are pointing to him not suiting up this week.
We typically aren’t the guys that jump into big trends, and if the Steelers were a trendy dog we would not be tailing. For us this one screams Bengals win, Steelers cover.
The Pick: Steelers +4.5
Cowboys @ Vikings +1 Total 47.5 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Contrarian Paradise in the land of 1,000 lakes. The Vikings are coming off of the “Game of the Year” in Buffalo. The Cowboys just lost a heartbreaker in Green Bay.
Minnesota’s stadium gives them one of the biggest home filed advantages in the NFL, they’re 8-1, they just beat the Super Bowl favorites on the road…and now they are underdogs? Dak is mid. McCarthy is a doofus. But Dallas is winning, sadly.
The Pick: Cowboys -1
Come on Over, Over: Raiders @ Broncos 41
Just when you thought we weren’t going to mention the two most disappointing teams of the year! The Broncos are favored and they can’t score more than 20 points. Derek Carr’s mascara is running. 5% of the handle is on the over. Absolutely nothing to like about this game and zero reason to expect points…but we just can’t stop scratching our head as to how this one didn’t open with a total in the high 30’s. Take us to Mile High Tina!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12
UConn @ Army -9.5 Total 43.5
I had to do a double take when I saw this line. In case you aren’t aware, UConn is one of the best ATS teams in the country (8-2). They’re also coming off their biggest win of the season against Liberty in OT. If this line doesn’t indicate a prime letdown spot, then I don’t know what does. Army put up 9 points in their loss against Troy. Now they’re favored by more than that a “better” team? Wild.
The Pick: Army -9.5
#4 TCU @ Baylor +2.5 Total 56.5
Thanks to our boy Jovan, we stayed off Texas last week. They were a carbon copy of Georgia -9 vs Tennessee. You had the higher ranked team in that situation getting a ton of points (TCU was getting 7), a very trendy dog, yet the line moving toward the contrarian favorite. However, once the public got burned with Tennessee, they all got smart at the wrong time and jumped on the Texas train. TCU won outright. There’s a very good chance this team just has that magic to them this year.
With all that said…we can’t resist this spot. Baylor was playing better as of late, winning 3 straight games until getting their ass kicked 31-3 at home to Kansas State. Was it a look ahead game, perhaps? Who knows. What we do know is this line is an insult to TCU. It’s no surprise that they’re getting 85% of bets and 89% of the money. What is surprising is that the line hasn’t moved. That tells us there is liability with Baylor here, and we’ll be taking the home dog.
The Pick: Baylor +2.5
#18 Texas @ Kansas +9.5 Total 63.5
Speaking of Texas! We luckily stayed on the sideline last weekend, but jumping in now. It’s worth mentioned that Kansas has lost 4/5 games, so the spread isn’t TOO surprising. But as we just mentioned - Texas just burned the public and “sharps” as a big favorite. This is something we like to try and identify, because it’s when everyone jumps ship, yet the line tells us a different story. Kansas might be losing games, but they’re still 7-2-1 ATS on the season. We don’t think the oddsmakers are giving them this many points at home as an early Christmas present.
The Pick: Texas -9
Texas Tech @ Iowa State -3.5 Total 47.5
Remember last weekend when we played Texas Tech -3.5 against against Kansas after just getting beaten by Baylor? Well this is essentially the same situation, but now we are doing it with Iowa State. Tech came through for us then, but we must fade them now. Iowa State was in a huge dog to favorite spot last weekend against Ok State, as they opened +1.5 and closed -3. Well…the Cowboys lost lol. Honestly, they fucking stink, and Matt Campbell is a turd. But unfortunately none of that matters when you bet like sick fuck. The tickets are split, but the line moved from -3 to -3.5.
The Pick: Iowa State -3.5
#22 Oklahoma St @ Oklahoma -7.5 Total 66.5
This might be the most absurd line I’ve seen since Oklahoma was -9 against Kansas. This Sooners team is BAD. Just lost outright at an 8 point favorite @ WVU, and now they return home to face an also bad, but still ranked Oklahoma State team. I can only imagine how trendy of a dog OK State will be this weekend. VSIN.com shows that they’re getting 77% of the bets (I expected more), but only 49% of the money. The Sooners opened -6 and are up to -7.5. The “worse” team not only being a bigger favorite than expected but also taking in money.
The Pick: Oklahoma -7.5
#7 USC @ #16 UCLA +2.5 Total 76.5
Both UCLA and Oregon lost outright as double digit dogs before their biggest game of the season. Shame on us for not taking advantage of either’s “look-ahead” spot. We missed the opportunity to fade, but we won’t miss the opportunity to invest. Now is the time to back them - when everyone else jumps off the wagon. Oregon was going to make our card, but the Bo Nix injury news has us uncertain about that game. “Buy the bad news, Degen!” I know I know…we’re considering. For now, let’s focus on the Bruins.
USC is playing for a chance to make it to the CFB Playoff and a chance at the National Championship in Lincoln Rileys first season as head coach. We did take their win total over on the year, but don’t like what we’re seeing for them in this spot. The Trojans handled Colorado easy last week, and now are a short number against an “inferior” team in a must win game. The public is all over the Trojans, but the line isn’t budging. The books not wanting to give the Bruins a key number at 3 tells us where the liability is, and that’s where we want to be.
The Pick: UCLA +2.5
UAB @ #6 LSU -14.5 Total 52.5
We don’t want to go back to the same team we just won on and get greedy, but we don’t have a choice. UAB came through for us as a 5.5 point favorite last week, covering easily against North Texas. Before that game, the Rattlers had lost lost 3 straight, and failed to cover in 4 straight. What we find interesting is that LSU just beat Ole Miss, a fellow SEC team that gets respect, by 25 points at home 3 weeks ago. Now a 5-5 UAB team who’s lost 4/5 games is only getting 14.5 points? Strange.
The next two games on LSU calendar are @ Texas A&M and @ Georgia. Brian Kelly has been known to not let his former ND teams slip up to weaker competition in these spots, but we have our doubts in year one. Also, the total is moving down from 53 to 52.5, which always makes us lean towards the dog.
The Pick: UAB +14.5
Jovans Best Bet @jovan_deeb
Colorado State @ Air Force -21.5 Total 42.5
Colorado St-Air Force is typically a high-scoring, back and forth type game filled with fireworks. This matchup has produced a total of under 50 points only once in their last 14 meetings. These are very different teams this year (especially Colorado St) which is why we see the total for this game opening 45.5 and dropping to 42. We all know what Air Force’s gameplan will be: around 60 triple option carries split between their backfield. And while they have the advantage there in this matchup, there isn’t as much of a discrepancy as you may think. For a team as bad as Colorado St is, their run defense is surprisingly decent. They sit around the middle of FBS surrendering 4.18 yds/rush, which for a 2-8 team who has faced five top 50 rushing attacks is a very respectable number. Air Force is no regular rushing attack, but I trust this defense to do enough in forcing longer drives out of the Falcons offense to make that clock tick and keep the game within a few scores.
This Rams team has also been much better offensively than their scoring output may indicate with their QB Clay Millen back in the fold these past few games. They will be able to exploit this weak Air Force pass defense at times to put together some (time-consuming at the least) drives of their own. Air Force would have to be absolutely dominant to cover this number and I just don’t see this game going this way. With the limited possessions I think we see in this game, two scoring drives for CSU might be enough to cover this number.
The Pick: Colorado St +21.5
RECAP:
NFL
Falcons -3 (Brandons Best Bet)
Ravens -13 (Gregs Best Bet)
Cowboys -1 (Jakes Best Bet)
Steelers +4.5
Texans +3
Raiders/Broncos OVER 41
CFB
Army -9.5
Baylor +2.5
Texas -9
Iowa State -3.5
Oklahoma -7.5
UCLA +2.5
UAB +14.5
Colorado St +21.5