NFL Week 11 & College Football Week 12
The Grind Back to Even
A much needed solid week in College Football and a whole lot of nothing in the NFL. After starting the CFB season 2-7 in week 1, it’s been a steady grind to get back to even. We are ALMOST there. Scaling back and betting responsibly is always encouraged until you start reading the board well. Trimming to 5 plays was the move, and we will intend to keep in that way in the final few weeks of the season.
We’ve got the mecca of NFL right around the corner with a Thanksgiving Day special.
Bit of personal news at the Degenerate: Dino is expecting his first kid next week - bear with us as we might be a bit delayed for next week.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 35-20-1 (+11.43 Units)
CFB: 36-34-2 (-1.40 Units)
NFL WEEK 11
Titans at Jags -7 Total 40.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
I faded the Jags my best bet last weekend, and it was a no sweat stone cold donkey kong lock squares table winner. I don’t like getting greedy, but I’m getting greedy, and there’s a few reasons why.
Reason 1: I am still not totally sold on the Jags being very good. They’ve been on a really nice run since the sluggish start last season, but I can’t get over the fact that this team was in a life and death game with the Titans last year at home to make the playoffs. Before entering their BYE week, the Jags had won and covered in 5 straight. But as we pointed out, they really hadn’t faced the toughest competition. We know the Bills are broken, but even still the Jags had a huge rest advantage in London. The Falcons and Saints wins don’t look that impressive anymore.
Reason 2: Vrabel is a great coach to bet on as an underdog, but he has failed to cover in two straight games. I’m betting on that to change against a divisional opponent that Vrabel has familiarity with.
Reason 3: As pointed out by one of our loyal followers, teams that play the 49ers have yet to cover a spread the week after. Looking at you, Jacksonville!
Listen, I am not really big Will Levis guy. This by no means a belief in him or the Titans starting to show life or signs of success. I think Jacksonville had a nice 5 game stretch, but am betting on their demise after the BYE week. I’ll put on some makeup and be a bit of a trend whore this weekend. Don’t let me down, Mike!
The Pick: Titans +7
Buccaneers at 49ers -11.5 Total 41.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Of the twelve games this weekend, seven of them have a spread of a touchdown or more. Three have a spread in the double digits. But one of these dogs is not like the other.
The Buccaneers. Despite covering three straight games AND covering big numbers against the Eagles and the Bills, the Bucs find themselves as one of the biggest underdogs of the weekend. If you look at all the big dogs on the board, my hunch is that the Bucs will be the team everyone wants to get cute with to cover this weekend. Baker is moving the ball, the defense can stop the run, no way this should be 10+ points!
The Niners might be back to their old selves. After an ugly mid-season rut, they bounced back in a big way against the surging Jaguars (shoutout Degen best bet). San Fran started the season red hot. Not only did they win five straight, but no one even closed within a touchdown of them until the Week 6 loss at Cleveland. When this team is healthy they are a problem.
The Nick Bosa/Chase Young duo has a game of experience under their belt and I expect them to have themselves a day making Bakers life miserable.
The Pick: 49ers -11.5 (-115)
Seahawks at Rams +1 Total 36.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
As a contrarian bettor this is the line that stands above all the others for Week 11. But anyone can be a contrarian, the tough part is to find the right spots and avoiding the traps. Here’s why Steak’s on board:
The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six against the Seahawks. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in games against the NFC West the year. Stafford is expected return and we are ready to jump back on the Rams wagon after a BYE. It’s a thing of beauty.
The Pick: Rams +1 (-105)
Bears at Lions +7.5 Total 47.5
Let us be crystal clear: it is absolutely zero fun to fade the Lions. They are scrappy, they are fun, and lord knows they play with heart. It’s even less fun to bet on the Bears. They suck, they are poorly coached, and they are already looking forward to an early draft pick(s) in 2024. In this case - two wrongs make a right!
The Lions have made short work of the long list of shitty QB’s they’ve faced this year, but it’s been a different story when they’ve lined up against some of the leagues best.
Now, we aren’t going as far as to say Justin Fields is elite, but after sitting on the sidelines and hearing the media question if it’s time for Chicago to move on we think he comes out as a man possessed and makes some big plays with his arm.
Strictly a taking your vitamins play for this one.
The Pick: Bears +7.5 (-105)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Vikings at Broncos Under 42.5
When in need of an under there’s no better place than at altitude!
There’s been a ton of talk about the resurgence of Russell Wilson and the emergence of Joshua Dobbs, but there hasn’t been much to be said about these defenses.
Both units started sloppily but have continued to get better and better. Here’s to another week of improvement in a dogfight type game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12
#3 Michigan at Maryland +19.5
Michigan is in a prime letdown + look ahead spot, and it might be the last one we can play in the season. After that emotional win on the road against Penn State, Michigan finds themselves back on the road at Maryland. This game is sandwiched in the schedule before the big showdown against Ohio St. and Michigan knows that’s their season. In my opinion, this is a legitimate title contender. I’m a critic of Michigan having the softest start to a schedule I’ve seen in years, but I’m also not a doubter. They have been steam rolling their opponents, and fading them is not fun. But this is going to be our first time doing it, because we can’t ignore the situational spot. Gulp.
The Pick: Maryland +19.5
Cincinnati at West Virginia -6.5
This is less of a bet on Cincinnati and more of a bet against West Virginia. I don’t think the Mountaineers are very good. They’re 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS, but they really haven’t done anything impressive outside of beating UCF on the road. Their last home game was a 37-7 drubbing of BYU, but I think BYU is finally fucking dead. The -6.5 home favorite always feels a bit trappy to me. Makes you feel like “they just have to win by a touchdown” and that doesn’t seem so hard, especially when WVU is 4-1 at home and 4-1 ATS. But on Senior Night, I think the Bearcats are here to play spoiler, especially after a nice win on the road at Houston last week.
The Pick: Cincinnati +6.5
#20 North Carolina at Clemson -7.5
My first time watching a full Clemson game was when they played Notre Dame two weeks ago. We had them as a newsletter pick, and I’m also an ND fan. We knew that Tigers win was coming, but I still left that game saying “Clemson fucking stinks”. The following week, Clemson covers easily against Georgia Tech, as Cade Klubnik threw for 4 TDs and the defense had 4 interceptions. Unfortunately, this team has gone into “fuck you” mode after Dabo’s rant. They’ve had a terrible season, and despite not having much to play for, they’ve found a bit of motivation to not end it on a bad note. This spread is quite telling. Not too often you’ll see an unranked team lay over a touchdown against a ranked opponent. You might say the value is with the Tar Heels, and that’s fine. You might also say you can’t trust Clemson with all those points against Drake Maye, and that’s also fine. But take a look at what North Carolina’s defense has been doing recently, and you will think twice. Allowing 45 points to Duke and 46 points to Georgia Tech. YIKES! This is exactly what Klubnik needs for his Heisman campaign to get going (I am joking).
The Pick: Clemson -7.5
Kentucky at South Carolina +1.5
I am very upset with myself. Not once did I choose to buy into this Kentucky team all season, and then the one time I did was last week against fucking Alabama. That bet didn’t even have a pulse as Jalen Milroe did whatever he wanted. Kentucky brought in NC St transfer QB Devin Leary this year and Wildcat fans had high hopes they’d make a splash in the SEC. Nope. This dude isn’t cutout for this conference, and now I want to fade the Wildcats. You might say “but Degen, didn’t you say South Carolina was a dead team a few weeks ago?” and you’d be correct. However, they’ve shown some pride down the stretch, having won two straight. At 4-6 they can still make a bowl if they win out. I think the Cocks offense puts on one more show before facing Clemson next week, especially with Kentucky looking ahead to it’s in-state rival Louisville.
The Pick: South Carolina +1.5
#5 Washington at #11 Oregon St -1.5
Is the right team favored here? Oregon St has 2 losses and is 100/1 to win the National Championship. yet they’re favored against the 5th best team in the country with a heisman candidate quarterback. The Beavers have surpassed everyones expectations this year, and we don’t think they disappoint in their home finale. Playing night games in Corvallis is something Oregon St has had great success at over the years, and we think Penix is in for a long night against this Beavers defense.
The Pick: Oregon St -1.5
RECAP:
NFL
Titans +7 (-115)
Niners -11.5 (-115)
Rams +1 (-110)
Bears +7.5 (-105)
MIN/DEN Under 42.5 (-110)
CFB
Maryland +19.5 (-115)
Cincinnati +6.5 (-105)
Clemson -7.5 (-110)
South Carolina +1.5 (-110)
Oregon St -1.5 (-110)