NFL Week 12 & College Football Week 13
Rivalry Week
The NFL Playoff picture is starting to form, just as we say goodbye to the College Football Season. One last ride.
Back to back weeks of being hot in CFB and ice cold in NFL. The reads are there, the results are not. As Billy Beane said “adapt or die”, and adapt we shall, by not betting on a few coaches for the remainder of the season. Looking at you, Kevin Stefanski.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 37-37-4 (-2.37 Units)
CFB: 59-40 (+10.7 Units)
NFL WEEK 12
Steelers @ Colts -2.5 Total 39 (Brandon’s best bet)
This pick is quite simple for me. At the end of the day, I just don’t see Mike Tomlin losing to Jeff Saturday on Monday Night Football. And let me be clear – I have zero issue with the Jeff Saturday hiring. In fact, I actually love it.
I’ve long said that I think head coaches (in all sports) take themselves way too seriously. Less is more, in my opinion. Do you need to sleep at the office and watch 100 hours of film a week? Ask Dirk Koetter. Do you need to make sure the players stand on the line during stretches and actually touch their toes? Ask Greg Schiano. If you watched The Last Dance, you might remember the infamous Vegas trip that Phil Jackson let Dennis Rodman take. That’s the coaching style I’m fond of.
You could counter my opinion by saying discipline and schemes are what’s most important, and use Belicheck as the example. To that I say “how’s life without Brady?”. Understanding your players and allowing them to be themselves should be priority number one. Nobody is better at that than Mike Tomlin.
Alright, that’s enough coach talk and Tomlin slurping. Listen, Kenny Pickett is a work in progress. Even though the Steelers lost last week, it was a very positive sign for Kenny. The Steelers offense put up 30 points. Kenny passed the ball 42 times and threw ZERO interceptions. What I’ve liked about him throughout the season is he takes shots down the field. He’s also smart in knowing how talented George Pickens is, and trying to get his playmaker the ball. Because for whatever reason, Trubisky acted like Pickens didn’t exist.
I like my coaches cool and my QB’s to take risks, but now the hard part is limiting the mistakes. I think Kenny will be just fine. Now let’s talk about Matt Ryan. After being benched, Ryan lead the Colts to a win @ the Raiders, and a 1 point loss to the Eagles. That’s 2-0 ATS, so he deserves credit from sports bettors like myself.
This total is trending down from 40 to 39.5, and the Steelers line is frozen at +2.5, despite the Colts taking in more bets and money. If the market is any indication, the Matt Ryan resurgence and Jeff Saturday party is over in Indy.
The Pick: Steelers +2.5
Raiders @ Seahawks -3.5 Total 48 (Greg’s best bet)
On September 27th, 2008 the Florida Gators lost at home to Ole Miss, ruining their perfect season. Tebow cried, made the Promise speech, and the Gators went on to win the National Championship.
Now people are asking* - did Derek Carr just have his Tim Tebow moment? Are the Raiders about to go on a run an win a Super Bowl?
*Absolutely no one is asking any of these questions.
Every game for the Raiders this year has come down to a handful of plays that went against them. Last week the tide turned and Las Vegas came away with a hard fought, divisional game on the road. Although a complete turn around is highly unlikely, the line for the Raiders this week is as suspicious as they come.
Before their loss to the Buccaneers in Munich (a 9 HOUR time differential), Seattle had won 4 games in a row by double digits. Now, they are at home, off a bye, and the line opened at 3.5? Nice try Oddsmakers! Everyone has got a ticket on the Seahawks, but guess what? The line opened at 3.5 and it hasn’t moved an inch. Textbook line freeze. 82% of the money and Vegas refuses to budge? If they are fine with the liability, so are we.
Give me line freeze or give me death!
(DAMNIT! This morning the line moved to +4 lol. Still riding!)
The Pick: Raiders +4
Chargers @ Cardinals +3 Total 48 (Jake’s best bet)
The Chargers playoff hopes and Kliff Kingbury’s job are on the line. Kyler Murray should be returning from his hamstring injury, but no one seems to care…except the sharps. Arizona is seeing 24% of the bets but 57% of the money. Our guy Jake is all about spotting the ugliest and sharpest spots, so it’s no surprise this one is right up his alley. Both of these teams have plenty of bad news to lean into, but we’re going Cardinals because nobody wants it.
The Pick: Cardinals +3
Buccaneers @ Browns +3.5 Total 42
Our most chalk play of the weekend with the public and the sharps backing the Bucs in Cleveland. Tampa has won 2 in a row since Brady’s divorce went final, and they seem to be building some momentum after an ugly start to the season. The big thing to note is how much better this defense has been playing, almost returning to their Super Bowl run form. If they can slow the running game of Chubb and Hunt, Jacoby Brissett could struggle in his final start before handing the keys over to Deshaun Watson.
We’re done getting cute with the fishy lines with Kevin Stefanski. Maybe DWat can return to his superstar level and save Stefanski’s job in Cleveland next year, but for now we’re on the fade train. Don’t overthink this one. Bucs come away with a victory.
The Pick: Bucs ML
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Rams @ Chiefs -15.5 Total 41.5
What the fuck is a Bryce Perkins? It doesn’t matter - anytime Vegas is giving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs a total in the low 40’s it should absolutely catch your attention. 41.5? The Rams are terrible, Andy Dalton just dropped 27 on them. “Mahomes will drop 50 and cover this total by his gotdamn self!”
Orrr…. maybe it’s a signal that the Chiefs basically clinched the division with a Sunday night win over the Chargers and next week they get their AFC Championship rematch against the Bengals. So maybe, just maybe, with a “free” win this week they come out a little rusty.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13
South Carolina @ #8 Clemson -14.5 Total 52.5
I hate starting the noon slate taking multiple big favorites, but these two games are hard to avoid. Clemson has burned us in the past, as we backed them -7 @ Wake and -14 vs Syracuse (they failed to cover both). This time feels different. The reason being is that since losing to ND, Clemson has won and covered its last two games. The most recent was a big -19 vs Miami. They’re now playing in state rival South Carolina who just has one of the most impressive wins of the season. The Gamecocks beat the absolute piss out of Tennessee 63-38. Spencer Rattler, who I fucking despise, threw for 6 touchdowns. Due to recency bias, it’s no surprise that rat fuck is getting 70% of the bets. What is surprising is that the handle is split and the line moved towards Clemsons favor. Big spread, suspicious move…we’ll take it.
The Pick: Clemson -14.5
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison -14.5 Total 52.5
It must be noted that Grayson McCall has been out for the season since November 9th, so there’s a reason this line is inflated. Regardless, we think this number is too high. If you agree but think that means there’s value with Coastal, go right ahead and back them. Given there’s bad news, we wouldn’t argue, but you should know our style by now and if it’s “too many points” then we think it’s for a reason. Coastal has still managed to win it’s last 3 games, so it’s not like they’ve fallen off a cliff. The public is all over Coastal with this big number - they’re getting 80% of the bets, but only 62% of the money. That betting discrepancy is catching our eye and leaving us with no choice but to back our founding father.
The Pick: JMU -14.5
Georgia State @ Marshall -6.5 Total 45.5
Marshall has won and covered their last 3 games, meanwhile Georgia St has lost it’s last 2 (1-1 ATS). This matchup caught our eye because we thought the -6 opener was a tad low. But then it was brought to our attention that Marshall was getting hammered with bets, and the line wasn’t moving. As of this morning we are seeing some -6.5’s, but with Georgia St only getting 19% of the bets and 12% of the handle, we expected a lot more than a .5 point move. The books reluctency to give Georgia St at a key number of 7 or 7.5 is telling.
The Pick: Georgia St +6.5
#23 Wake Forest @ Duke +3.5 Total 66.5
We’d like this a lot more if Duke was ranked, but after their loss to Pitt, this is a solid contrarian spot to back them. Wake is the ranked team with a short number playing an opponent off a loss. All of that attracts the public, as they’re getting 73% of the bets, but the money is hitting Duke.
The Pick: Duke +3.5
Auburn @ #7 Alabama -22.5 Total 50.5
This one is simple, and a spot we’ve played throughout the season. A top team in a contrarian spot. The only time it really didn’t come through was Alabama @ Tennessee, but overall on the season it’s 3-1. Auburn has had a bit of a resurgence since firing their coach (another Degen system play), and all the hype is around interim head coach Cadillac Williams. He’s got the Tigers on a 2 game win streak, and 3-0 ATS in their last 3. This is a big number, especially for an Alabama team that’s 1-5 in their last 6 ATS. The Tide are receiving low bets but higher dollars, and the line moved 21.5 to 22.5.
The Pick: Alabama -22.5
#9 Oregon @ #21 Oregon State +3.5 Total 58.5
Hard not to love the Beavers at home in this rivalry game. This feels like a really bad spot for Oregon. The Beavers were able to take care of business against Arizona State last weekend, but Oregon had their hands full the past two games. First, a look ahead loss against Washington at home, followed by a bounce back win against Utah. Oregons offense struggled, but were able to intercept Cameron Rising 3 times to secure the win. They’ve gotta be spent, and the sharps know it. Oregon State is only getting 21% of the bets, but 51%(!!!) of the money.
The Pick: Oregon State +3.5
Iowa State @ #4 TCU -9.5 Total 46.5
After consulting with our guy and TCU student Jovan, this total is not as low as we initially thought. Because at first glance, with a TCU offense averaging 40 points per game, it seemed pretty damn low. But he made a good point that Iowa State totals have typically been set around the 40’s. This Cyclones team stinks, and their offense is dreadful. Even still, some money is coming in on them. TCU went from -10 to -9.5, and the total seems to be hovering right around that “low” number. We always correlate liking the under with liking the dog, so if the sharps lean Iowa State in this one, we are going with our gut. The total just dropped this morning to 46.5…
The Pick: UNDER 46.5
Jovans Best Bet @jovan_deeb
#13 Washington @ Washington State +2 Total 59.5
Huskies stock is at its highest point. After back-to-back losses to UCLA and Arizona St, everyone wrote them off. After 5 straight wins including 2 vs ranked teams in Oregon and Oregon St, they’ve played to their highest ranking of the season at #13. Washington St has won 3 straight but against Stanford and both Arizona schools, so nothing impressive. Their last game was that win against Arizona where they were 4-point favorites against the same Wildcats team that was 15-point underdogs to the Huskies, making this +2 number this week that much more interesting. The story here should be the Washington St defense. As good as Penix and the Washington offense is, they haven’t had the same production against good defenses. Against the two decent defenses they’ve played they scored 28 and 24 against Cal and Oregon St while struggling at long stretches in those games.
Washington St’s defense is more than capable and arguably better than those units. They’re especially good at limiting explosive plays, similar to Cal’s defense who held the Huskies without a TD in the first half. On the other side, Cam Ward and the Cougars offense should do whatever they want to the Husky defense. They really pose no threat of stopping anyone. Dual threat QBs tear this defense to shreds as we’ve seen Bo Nix, DTR, and Jayden de Laura all have huge games with their arms and their legs. Give me the Cougars as a short dog at home in the Apple Cup to cover this one.
The Pick: Washington St +2
RECAP:
NFL
Steelers +2.5 (Brandon’s best bet)
Raiders +4 (Greg’s best bet)
Cardinals +3 (Jake’s best bet)
Buccaneers ML (-180)
Rams/Chiefs under 41.5
CFB
Clemson -14.5
JMU -14.5
Georgia St +6.5
Duke +3.5
Alabama -22.5
Oregon St +3.5
ISU/TCU UNDER 47.5
Washington St +2
Bold on the under with KC. I like it!