NFL Week 12 & College Football Week 13
NFL Leftovers & College Football Finale
We hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving and successful day of betting! Today is all about digesting, but there isn’t much time to spare. Enjoy your Turkey sandwich, but get your ass on the treadmill or in the sauna quick because we’ve got a loaded slate of College Football games.
The College season is winding down, and goodness has it been a grind. This is our third year doing the newsletter, and we’ve typically had more success in CFB than the NFL. This season has been the opposite. No complaints, but we’re certainly determined to end the year in the green. Also, we know the question you’re going to ask and the answer is yes - we’re betting the Bowl Games (and did so quite successfully last year). Be on the lookout for the Degen Bowl Guide coming soon.
Now grab a cup of coffee and be sure your pantry is stocked with wonder bread and Hellmans mayo - kickoff is at noon!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 39-21-1 (+14.06 Units)
CFB: 39-36-2 (-0.71 Units)
NFL WEEK 12
Patriots at Giants +3.5 Total 34 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Full disclosure: I despise the New England Patriots and have bet on their demise this season. I think Bill Belicheck is Old Yeller and they need to just put the damn dog down. This guy could’ve rode into the sunset as the greatest coach of all time, but his ego is too big and he’s refused to let go, while ruining his reputation with decisions like hiring Matt Patricia to be co-offensive coordinator with Joe Judge (LOL). This organization has become a laughing stock since Brady left, and I’m here for it. But not on Sunday, November 25th. On Sunday, I am going from selling my Patriots stock to selling Tommy DeVito at an all time high.
Last week DeVito and the Giants beat the Washington Commanders outright as 10 points underdogs, and Tommy won rookie of the week. Is it a cool story that he was able to pull this off while still living with his parents? Yes. Do I have anything personally against DeVito and want him to fail? Absolutely not. I just can’t buy the fact that this dude is going to follow up that performance with a win against the Patriots. Not to mention the Commanders Pass D might be the worst in the NFL. And let’s be honest, as bad as the Pats look now, he’s still Bill fucking Belicheck. The Patriots are injured, but should be returning some guys after their BYE week.
If there’s one thing I’m confident Belicheck can still do, it’s beat rookie quarterbacks. Oh and win in MetLife. He also can absolutely still bring misery to the state of New Jersey as he’s done to the Jets for almost two decades. So yea, give me the old hag.
The Pick: Patriots -3.5
Steelers at Bengals +1.5 Total 35.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
If you’ve followed The Degenerate for a while, you’d know that one of our favorite betting systems is to back a team after firing their coach. Any team, any sport. Now does this apply to coordinators? Sometimes. In this case, we’re giving it a green light.
Pittsburgh FINALLY fired Matt Canada. This guy had a job for like 2.5 years too long. The Steelers offense has failed to gain 400 yards of offense in 58 straight games - that’s the second longest streak in NFL history. Since the firing, it appears money has hit Pitt, moving them from a +1.5 dog to a -1.5 favorite. That’s another system we love. The only concern here is that we are selling bad news here, as Joe Burrow is out with an injured wrist, and the Bengals are starting backup Jake Browning. Our style is typically to buy bad news or avoid it altogether, but we’re going to ignore it and back the Steelers after the Canada news.
The Pick: Steelers -1.5
Ravens at Chargers +3.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
It feels like Brandon Staleys seat has been hot for 18 weeks now. Are the Chargers ever going to fire this fuck? Who knows. What we do know is that nobody in their right mind wants to bet on the 4-6 Chargers right now, so you know Steak wants in.
Baltimore has had their fare share of slip ups this season, but overall they’re playing like one of the best teams in the league, having won 5 of their last 6 games.
One thing they haven’t done in a while though is play a road game. Since their trip to Europe back on October 15th, the Ravens have had just one road game in which they failed to cover (-10 in Arizona). Now after 3 straight home games, the Ravens pack up and head out West.
It’s never comfortable betting on a 4-6 team against an 8-3 team, but the one thing to keep in mind is the Chargers haven’t lost by more than a field goal at home all season - and these include some pretty good opponents (Dolphins, Lions, Cowboys). Just keep it close Staley, just keep it close.
The Pick: Chargers +3.5
Chiefs at Raiders +8.5
I’ve had it up to here with these damn Las Vegas Raiders. I bet on their under 6.5 win total, and it’s going to be a sweat down the stretch. Nothing worse than betting against a bad coach and bad QB, only to see both gone but the team still winning.
Rookie QB Aidan O’Connell and new HC Antonio Pierce have sparked some fight out of the Raiders these past few weeks. I wasn’t ready to give them credit yet after wins against Zach Wilson and Tommy DeVito, but playing the Dolphins close last weekend (20-13 L) has earned a bit of my respect. If you look closely though, you’d see that the Dolphins moved the ball at will. I mean they only punted one time, but it was a very sloppy post bye week performance from Miami. Thankfully, the Raiders could not capitalize, as Aidan finally came back down to earth and threw 3 interceptions.
Now the Raiders return home and play a pissed off Chiefs team that just lost in primetime. Andy Reid doesn’t often lose after a BYE week, and he just did. You know what else the Chiefs don’t do? Lose back to back games. All the talk this week has been about the lack of weapons Mahomes has. I don’t disagree with the take at all, but if the noise makes its way to Kansas City, I expect their offense to show out and silence the critics, of which there appear to be many.
The Pick: Chiefs -8.5
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Jags at Texans Total 47.5
After the Jags just bounced back and scored 34 points against the Titans, and CJ Stroud continues to look like one of the better rookie QBs we’ve seen in ages, I’d have to imagine everyone is going to expect a shootout in this game. To which we say NOT SO FAST! Jacksonville heads to Houston looking for revenge in the rematch after having lost 37-17 at home in Week 3. We’re getting late in the season with the division and playoff implications on the line. I expect this to be a stingy game with the defenses tightening up after already seeing each other once.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13
UTSA at #23 Tulane -3.5
The AAC Conference showdown! Winner of this game will secure its spot in the Conf Championship game against SMU. We’ve bet on Tulane multiple times this season as big favorites at home, and every single time they fucked us. Typically when you think you know a team and unsuccessfully bet on them, then switch it up to fade them, it rarely works out. But to hell with the Green Wave - we’re Roadrunners today baby! UTSA treated gamblers well in 2022, but started this season 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. Just when you thought all hope was lost on everyones favorite small school, they turned it around and won 7 straight games (5-1-1 ATS). Tulane is 10-1, but 4 of its last 5 wins have come by just one possession, meanwhile UTSA has been smashing teams by 14+. We’re taking the road dog to play spoiler here.
The Pick: UTSA +3.5
Penn St at Michigan St +22
Penn State stayed consistent this season. They beat up on bad teams and lost to good ones. The James Franklin special! We thought about leaving this game off our card, but wanted to have 5 total plays and really don’t see anything else we love (ND -26 came close). Ultimately what this bet comes down to is the fact that Franklin LOVES covering big spreads, and is also pretty good at doing it on the road. Michigan St is dreadful, but they have shown some fight the last few weeks winning 2/3 down the stretch. At 4-7, all they’ve got to play for is pride, and all Penn State really has to play for is trying to get football fans to forget about how another year has gone by without beating Ohio St or Michigan. Penn States defense is damn good, and the total has dropped from 43 to 42.5, which has us thinking the home team might get shutout. In Franklin we trust (gulp).
The Pick: Penn St -22
UConn at UMass +2.5 Total 51.5
We at The Degenerate never advise people to blindly bet what we bet. This newsletter is all about sharing the thoughts and reasoning behind our bets. Some of them are great reads, some of them are stupid as fuck. if you align with us and take the same side/total, great. If you want to fade, also great - one of us wins!
I won’t take it personal if you choose not to tail this bet. In fact, I’d almost prefer you don’t. Go take a walk or spend some time with your family. There are many other things to do in life than sweat a total in a UMass game, but I can’t lie to you…it’s my favorite bet of the weekend. I don’t know who on earth looks at this matchup and thinks “points!”. yet the total climbed from 50.5 to 51.5. I find that interesting. The total seemed a touch high, and now it’s on the rise. I just have to do it.
The Pick: Over 51.5
Northwestern at Illinois -5.5
Northwestern has been a pretty cool story this year. Left for dead after losing coach Pat Fitzgerald to start the season, this team now has a 6-5 record and is bowl eligible. They also just locked up their new head coach and the players seem to be thrilled. The Wildcats have won 3/4 games including as a double digit road dog in Wisconsin. They’ve covered 5 straight. I mean his team might be the only 6 win wagon in College Football, and here we are about to fade them. Illinois is 5-6 and in need of one more win to be bowl eligible. The motivation here is too much to ignore, and the spread seems a bit telling in our opinion.
The Pick: Illinois -5.5
Clemson at South Carolina +7.5
Feels like we are playing with fire here and potentially getting greedy with a bad Clemson team. We’ve successfully bet on them twice in the last three weeks (vs ND and UNC), but we’re ready for pain. Just can’t help ourselves thinking it would be SO fitting that Clemson wins out and covers every spread after Dabo’s radio rant…
The Pick: Clemson -7.5
RECAP:
NFL
Patriots -3.5 (-105)
Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Chiefs -8.5 (-115)
Jags/Texans UNDER 47.5 (-110)
CFB
Tulane +3.5 (-110)
Penn St -22.5 (-105)
UConn/UMass OVER 51.5 (-105)
Illinois -5.5 (-115)
Clemson -7.5 (-110)