NFL Week 13 and College Football Conference Championships
The Home Stretch
Didn’t want a bounce back week in the NFL - NEEDED a bounce back week in the NFL. After a hot start, it’s been a few up and down weeks. The sharp/contrarian spots are starting to pick up steam. Let’s get hot.
We’ve had a strong college football season, and don’t want to spoil it by forcing too many plays in the Conference Championship weekend. There are some spots we like but not enough to make official plays, so notice the “Leans” listed after the write-up as opposed to the typical “The Pick”.
NFL has some massive games on the docket and the 4pm slate is as good as it gets with Dolphins/49ers and Chiefs/Bengals. The Playoff race is heating up, so lets get to work.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 41-38-4 (+.27 Units)
CFB: 63-44 (+10.34 Units)
NFL WEEK 13
Colts @ Cowboys -10.5 Total 43.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
The Jeff Saturday party is over. As I said in my write up last week, I have no issue with Jeff being hired, but if one more person tells me I look like him, I’m going to lose my mind…
The Colts are not a good team, and Matt Ryan is not a good quarterback. Yet people will still back them because A) it’s “too many points” and B) the Cowboys just let the Giants sneak through the backdoor.
Last weeks Steelers pick was quite simple for me. It came down to Tomlin not losing to Jeff Saturday on Primetime. This week it’s simple again - the Cowboys Defense is a nightmare for Matt Ryan. The Colts were expected to have one of the top offensive lines in football. I’m not exactly sure what happened, but that line stinks. Everyone on planet earth had a Colts to win Division ticket this offseason. I made some bad bets, but can hang my hat on not being one of those ticket holders. The reason being is I have never believed in Matt Ryan. Ever. This guy is a stick of butter - if he feels any sort of heat in the pocket, he melts.
The Steelers defense didn’t quite get to Matt Ryan like I expected last week, but their offense did enough. Now the Colts are on a short week and travel to Jerry World, where I feel this is the absolute worst matchup for a Matt Ryan led team. The Cowboys defense is FAST and physical. It’s a low total of 42.5, but trending up to 43.5, which makes me lean the favorite even more. I don’t see the Colts putting up more than 10 points in this game.
The Pick: Cowboys -10.5
Dolphins @ 49ers -3.5 Total 46.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
I love the Miami Dolphins. To start the season, I took them to make the Playoffs and to win the AFC. Hell, last year I even took Tua to win the MVP. But I’ve seen one too many “Mike McDaniel is a cool guy” videos about his blossoming love affair with Tua. Now, the head coach returns to his former employer to face off against the Coach who taught him everything when they were together in San Francisco and Atlanta.
The Dolphins have won 5 in a row since Tua returned from his concussion(s) and the offense appears to be unstoppable when he’s under center. Regardless of who wins or loses this one, it will be amazing to watch how this Dolphins offense stacks up against one of the best defenses in the league. This should be a great game, but putting the 49ers at -3.5 is just enough for everyone to run to the window for a Dolphins ticket, and I’m not buying it. At least not yet.
I believe it was Shakespear* who said “No great love is without turbulence” or some shit. And the Tua/McDaniel relationship is due for some instability on their path.
*He absolutely didn’t say this, but it sounds like something he would. Right?
The Pick: Niners -3.5
Titans @ Eagles -4.5 Total 46 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Here’s a fun stat. Teams with one loss or fewer after Week 12 are 9-23 ATS to close the season. It gets better. They are 5-21 when the spread is in the single digits. (per @SharpFootball).
After opening at -5.5, a one loss Philadelphia team continues to attract bettors, but the line keeps moving in Tennessee’s favor. The Titans are coming off a big home loss, Eagles coming off a primetime cover against the Packers. Let’s play a little game of zig-zag and ride the Titans.
The Pick: Titans +4.5
Browns @ Texans +7 Total 46.5
Investing in FTX was the 2nd worst decision you could make with your money in 2022. The worst remains betting on the Houston Texans. And yet, here we are. Again.
Deshaun Watson makes his debut as a Cleveland Brown after missing nearly two full seasons. As faith would have it, his first game back happens to be against his former team in the Houston Texans. This is one of the games we circled on our calendar when the season started as a spot to keep an eye on. We knew the Texans would be terrible (everyone did), and we expected everyone to be buying the good news on Cleveland with the superstars return to the field.
Regardless of the outcome, this is the last time we’re backing the Texans this year. They are in full blown tank mode. This is just too powerful of a narrative to avoid. The Browns are coming off an overtime win over Brady and the Bucs where Jacoby Brissett played one of his best games of the season, and now DWat gets to take over.
81% of the bets and 85% of the money remains on Cleveland, but the line hasn’t moved much (opened -6.5). Vegas refuses to move this over a touchdown and that’s whats got our attention.
The Pick: Texans +7
Chargers @ Raiders -1 Total 50.5
“Are you gonna bark all day little doggie? Or you gonna bite?”
The Raiders finally showed their teeth - covered, and won outright last week in Seattle. After all the bounces went against them early in the season, the breaks are starting to fall in their favor with another overtime win.
Now you might say to yourself “But Degen the Raiders have played back-to-back games that went to overtime, isn’t this going to catch up to them?” Ohh…it will, and things will likely come crashing down when it does, but not yet. This team is on an emotional rollercoaster with seemingly every game coming down to the final play. Now at home, in a divisional game, after opening as a dog and moving to a favorite is not the time to fade them.
Give the Raiders for one more cardiac cover.
The Pick: Raiders -1
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Jaguars @ Lions 51
It’s not the highest total on the board, but it’s the sharpest. Two scrappy teams who won’t quite die despite already being dead. After opening at 51.5 this one is moving down with 62% of the public riding the over.
To Detroit we go for some ugly football and a battle of the forgotten’s.
CFB - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
#11 Utah vs #4 USC -2.5 Total 67.5
Caleb Williams is your Heisman trophy winner, and he should be. There’s hype we buy, and there’s hype we fade. If you read our season preview newsletters you’d remember that USC is the hype we buy, and it cashed. Lincoln Riley doesn’t buy 17M houses in LA if he’s not going to deliver immediately.
The Utes are a team we faded, and missed by one L. The one that could’ve cashed their season total under? USC. The Trojans lost to Utah earlier in the season on a last second touchdown and 2 PT conversion. That was their only loss, and since that game you can’t argue they’ve been the better team. That’s why the public are all over the Trojans here. USC is getting 79% of the bets and 77% of the money. The line did open 1.5 and move up to 2.5. So by definition, they are still sharp, but also too public for our liking.
The Utes are super contrarian, so we are going to stay off a side. The total is where we’d lean. Their last matchup had 85 points. As square as it might be, we’d expect more of the same. No official play on this game for us though.
Lean: Over 67.5
#10 Kansas St vs #3 TCU -2.5 Total 61.5
I know what you’re thinking and what you expect from this write up, but you aren’t going to get it. Kansas St is absolutely right up our alley. TCU beat K State already (they beat everyone), and now the line looks short. The Frogs are getting 80% of the bets and the line isn’t moving. So a revenge game with a contrarian dog in a line freeze. Yea, we’re tempted…but fuck fading the frogs.
Lean: NONE
Fresno St vs Boise St -3.5 Total 54.5
We’ll make this one short and sweet. Fresno State hasn’t lost a game since they played Boise St on October 8th. That game finished 40-20 Boise. Both teams ended the season scorching hot, but now in a rematch we have a reverse line move to Fresno. The public are laying it with Boise as a short favorite, but the money is hitting Fresno. This line opened 4.5 and is down to 3.5.
The Pick: Fresno St +3.5
#22 UCF vs #18 Tulane -3.5 Total 56.6
This is the toughest read on the board. You could make a case for either side. UCF beat Tulane on the road earlier this season. Now Tulane is opening the favorite? Sure, but the recency bias is what has us laying off, and if anything leaning UCF.
The Knights just played god awful USF, and needed a last second touchdown to beat them 46-39. Tulane just took down Cincinnati on the road. Even though Cinci played their backup QB, I don’t think most bettors will care, and the betting data proves it. Tulane is the public play here, but they’re also the sharp play. The line moved up from 3 to 3.5. Gun to our head, we side with the dog here, but no play.
Lean: UCF +3.5
#14 LSU vs #1 Georgia -17.5 Total 51.5
It’s unfortunate that this LSU teams incredible season had to end with a loss to Texas A&M as a double digit favorite. But let’s not forget that this team had a 6.5 win total entering the season, and they’re 9-3 with a ticket to the SEC Championship game. God damn Brian Kelly is good.
Even after that dreadful loss, LSU finds themselves as a trendy dog. What do we do with trendy dogs? Fade them! It’s “too many points” in the publics eye. You know the drill - we think it’s for a reason. Top team in a contrarian spot.
The Pick: Georgia -17.5
Purdue vs #2 Michigan -16.5 Total 51.5
Our favorite CFB pick of the weekend. The obvious narrative is that this is the ultimate letdown spot for Michigan. However, they had that same situation last year against Iowa and beat the living piss out of them. Bettors aren’t thinking like that anymore, which is why Michigan is getting 65% of the bets.
Purdue ended the year winning 3 straight games, including @ Illinois as a 7 point underdog. They had a very mediocre season, but have a chance to make it special. QB Aidan O’Connell is expected to start despite missing some time after the tragic death of his brother. The line did open 16 and move up to 16.5 with the public and sharp money on Michigan, but we are going against the small move and with a big contrarian unranked dog that nobody wants.
The Pick: Purdue +16.5
RECAP
NFL:
Cowboys -10.5
Niners -3.5
Titans +4.5
Texans +7
Raiders -1
Jags/Lions UNDER 51.5
CFB:
Fresno St +3.5
Georgia -17.5
Purdue +16.5