It’s been a stellar NFL season, but unfortunately regression hit last week. Looking for a bounce back but still not forcing any plays. This weekends board is TOUGH.
This is the last round of BYE weeks, then we truly hit the home stretch of the 2023 regular season. Next week we will include some Bowl prep for College Football. If you have the time, be sure to watch our live stream today as we go over the slate and break down our best bets: Degen Twitch Channel
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 44-27-1 (+12.57 Units)
CFB: 41-40-2 (-2.86 Units)
NFL WEEK 14
Colts at Bengals -1.5 Total 43.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
I gotta tell ya, I’ve gone back and forth on this quite a bit. I’ve had weird vibes about this Colts team all season. I think we successfully bet on them earlier this year for a map play in Baltimore (nice job, Greg!), but then gave those units back taking them again in Jacksonville, and then got absolutely burned last week with the Titans.
Indy is 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS, but what's most impressive is what they’ve been able to do on away from home. The Colts are 5-1 on the road SU and ATS, including one game in Germany. Road warriors. They’re also in the midst of a 4 game win streak.
My concern is that the Colts stock is very high and I’m buying in too late. In addition to that, sharp money just hammered the Bengals, moving Cinci from +1.5 to -2 as of the last 24 hours. I hope that doesn’t indicate a potential injury for the Colts, but I’m not going to back down. Ultimately, I’m just going to accept that the Colts are fucking “them” as they kids would say. I think Shane Steichen is the real deal, as he just shot up to +600 for COTY after last weeks divisional road win. This would be the third time this season the Colts would win back to back road games. That’s very hard to do, and typically not a spot I want to back teams, but I’m going to trust in Shew + Shane.
Sometimes I feel fading backup QB’s is too obvious, but Jake Browning looked like Joe Montana against the Jags. He finished the game 32/37 for 352 yards 1 TD and 0 INTs. The Bengals won outright as a 10 point dog on the road in Monday Night Football. In my opinion, that was a back against the wall type of game. Despite it not being a divisional opponent, the Bengals wanted to show that they have too much talent to pack in the season now that Burrow is out. I can smell a bit of a letdown spot.
The Pick: Colts +2 (-110)
Seahawks at 49ers -10.5 Total 46.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
The Niners had last week circled on their calendar ever since Brock Purdy went down in the NFC Championship last year. They did not disappoint. After a couple of sluggish drives, SF went on an offensive melee putting up 42 points against the defending NFC Champions.
This one has all the making of a letdown spot, but we don’t have the balls to fade the 49ers for a full game. This team is just too much of a juggernaut at the moment.
The Seahawks are sliding. After a 6-3 start they’ve lost three in a row and their playoff hopes are starting to evaporate. Tough spot to be in - on the road against a division rival. Especially when you see how well Shanahan has done against them.
You can say a lot of things about Pete Carroll, but you can’t argue that he always has a team of fighters. I expect to see Seattle go down swinging.
The Pick: Seahawks 1H +6.5 (+100)
Rams at Ravens -7.5 Total 40.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Since Matt Stafford returned from injury the Rams have been red hot - winning three in a row. Now they travel across the country for a nasty game in the north east. Marking this over a TD is making Steak’s Spidey sense tingle.
Ravens typically thrive after a BYE and we don’t see any reason for them to let up.
The Pick: Ravens -7.5 (-105)
Broncos at Chargers -2.5 Total 43.5
With a coach like Brandon Staley it’s tough to know where rock bottom is. Each week the Chargers find new lows while simultaneously doing just enough to keep Staley employed. Not sure what it would take, but at this point you have to assume LA won’t do anything in season. SoFi Stadium is not a difficult place for opposing teams, so its a bit shocking to see the Chargers open this one up at -3.
We are going against a bit of a line move, but we are getting “wrong team favored” here and with the Broncos on the 2nd of three straight road games we are willing to take another shot here with a 5-7 Chargers team in a divisional home game that can keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
The Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-115)
RECAP:
NFL
Colts +2 (-110)
Seahawks 1H +6.5 (+100)
Ravens -7.5 (-105)
Chargers -2.5 (-115)