NFL Week 14 & Bowl Season Intro
Tighten Up
The College Football regular season has come to an end. We finish 65-45 (59%) and now anxiously await Bowl Season.
Go get little Susie something nice for Christmas with your CFB winnings, and be sure to thank our guy Jovan for the contribution this season. Don’t spend it all though - we’ve got 41 bowl games on deck. If you don’t think we’re already reading the market for the the Dukes Mayo and Cheez-It Bowl, then you underestimated just how degenerate we truly are.
Proud of the results in CFB, but not where we want to be in the NFL. Admittedly making some bad reads that really start to feel even worse come kick-off. We saw the Browns go -7 to -8 last weekend, and chose not to bet off. We also started to realize every Tom, Dick and Harry had Vrabel and the Titans + the points in Philly. With only a few weeks left, we are going to be laser focused on Sunday morning. Be sure to follow us on Twitter @thedegenweekly if you aren’t already.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 44-41-4 (Even)
CFB: 65-45 (+11.16 Units)
NFL WEEK 14
Buccaneers @ 49ers -3.5 Total 37.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
I emphasize responsible betting. However, I will be doing some irresponsible things to this Under. Potentially my largest wager of the season. Don’t tail.
Unfortunately, I watched most of the Bucs win over the Saints on MNF. It was miserable. Watching a 45 year old QB behind this offensive line is tough. Yet somehow, the GOAT did GOAT things, and constructed two touchdown drives late in the 4th. I know Tom is the best to ever do it, but fuck man…he’s old.
This Bucs offense moves the ball at a snails pace, rarely taking shots down the field. I’m aware this is mainly because the O-line doesn’t allow enough time for the play to develop and for Tom to find the open receiver. Brady is no stranger to dink and dunking, but now it’s on overdrive with Tristan Whirfs out. The Bucs only mustered up 3 points against the Saints last week through 3.5 quarters. Now on a short week, they travel to the West Coast and face one of, if not THE best defense in the NFL. I do not envision a Byron Lefwich masterclass on deck.
It was a bittersweet win for the Niners last Sunday. Shanahan beat his apprentice, but Jimmy G is done for the season with a broken foot. Brock Purdy will be the starter for the remainder of the season. There’s no doubt that Purdy looked solid, but now he’ll have to follow up that performance with something he hasn’t had yet - expectations. If you can beat the Dolphins, you can bet the Bucs, at least according to the oddsmakers. The Niners opened -4.5. Think about that. Brock fucking Purdy, the LAST pick in the NFL draft, is a 4.5 point favorite against Tom Brady. Sharps have already hit the Bucs, bringing it down to 3.5. It might be the right side, but I can’t lose another unit backing Bowles and Leftwich.
Shanahan’s offense is all about plug and play, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to light up the scoreboard. The Niners put up 33 points against the Dolphins, but the defense forced 4 turnovers, including one fumble return for a touchdown. One thing Brady doesn’t do is throw many interceptions (3 on the year).
Purdy finished the game 25/37 for 210 yards. That’s only 5.6 yards per attempt. I expect long, methodical drives and plenty of punts. If either team scores, it shouldn’t be quick, as neither take many shots downfield. Todd Bowles may not be a good head coach, but one thing he’s done well during his time as DC for the Bucs was lock up CMC when he was on the Panthers.
I’m mostly using my football brain here, but the market doesn't scare me off. There’s been a small move of 37 to 37.5, with the over taking in 62% of bets and 55% of money. The under is still sitting at -115 juice. If it moves up any further, I may reconsider my wager size.
The Pick: Under 37.5
Patriots @ Cardinals +1.5 Total 43.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Before we jump into this Sunday, let’s take a stroll down memory lane…
Thanksgiving Night, the Patriots (+2.5) in Minnesota. It was the sharp play, it was the right play, but it lost. Such is life. The following week, again on a Thursday Night, the Patriots open at +6 and get bet down to +3.5. The sharp play, and yet again, the Pats lost (rumors of a flu outbreak Buffalo were partially to blame for this movement).
Fast-forward to present day and the Patriots are traveling to Arizona, finding themselves as short favorites. The line opened New England -1 and has moved to -1.5 (or -2 at some books) with Arizona getting the majority of the bets.
Both teams enter this one well rested. New England off TNF and Arizona off a BYE. The line movement and the betting splits are what caught my attention, but the sheer mismatch in coaching is what is really calling my name. Of course the Patriots have their own problems this year with Matt Patrica and Joe Judge, but as long as Bill Belichick is in charge, I’m going to trust them in this situation. Especially against Kliff Kingsbury, who’s basically just an attractive Matt Patrica with a stylist and a strict diet. The Cardinals always find a way to fall apart during the home stretch of NFL season, and I think this game officially puts them in the grave for 2022.
The Pick: Patriots ML (-125)
Browns @ Bengals -5.5 Total 46.5 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Joe Burrow is on fire. Beating Mahomes for a THRID time in a row. They seem to be the only team who can crack the code of Andy Reid.
Even though the Browns massacred the Texans on the scoreboard, Deshaun Watson looked exactly like a guy who hadn’t played football in 2 years. The Browns won and covered without scoring an offensive touchdown. Cheers, Lovie Smith!
Despite the Browns winning this matchup earlier in the year (and the 4 times before that), everyone is running to bet Cincinnati again. Just a tried and true contrarian play from our guy Jake on this one.
75% of the bets, 74% of the money on Cincinnati. Who cares?
Opened at -4.5 and up to -5.5. Not Jake!
The Brownies are keeping this one close.
The Pick: Browns +5.5
Panthers @ Seahawks -4 Total 44.5
It’s all relative, but the Panthers have been on a hot streak. They’re 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games and coming off a BYE. Was Christian McCaffery holding this team back? (KIDDING!)
Where this gets even more interesting is that no one cares what Carolina has done lately. Despite the recent hot streak, only 23% of bettors are backing them, but it’s 60% of the money. We repeat: 60% of the money is backing Sam Darnold. This could be due to the injury news with Kenneth Walker, as he’s doubtful to play. We know he was the OROY favorite, but a player that’s not a QB (especially a rookie) being the only reason a line moves 2 points just doesn’t add up. Plus, the Geno hype train is still rolling after that comeback win in LA last week.
Another angle in the Panthers favor is that Seattle might be in a look-ahead spot. We know this are more of a thing in College than the NFL, but it could be an angle. They have a massive divisional game at home vs SF on a short week (TNF).
This line might be bait to contrarians like us, but we just can’t pass up on it. Especially since we’re calling (but not betting) the Lions as the fake sharp play of the weekend.
The Pick: Panthers +4
Eagles @ Giants +7 Total 45.5
Fading the Eagles sucks. Philly had tons of hype coming into the season, and somehow exceeded every single expectation. Jalen is in the MVP hunt, and HC Sirianni is the favorite to win Coach of The Year.
There are two lines we always feel like are a bit trappy for the favorite. These are -2.5 and -6.5. “They just need to win by a touchdown” is basically the handout for the best team in the NFL, against a struggling opponent. The GMEN started the year 6-1, but are just 1-3-1 since. The angle we like here is that the Eagles are not as good on the road as they are at home. Sure they’ve won every game, but they’re just 1-4 ATS. The GMEN are also 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. We’ll take a shot on em.
The Pick: Giants +7
Jets @ Bills -10 Total 43
The first time these teams met this season, the Jets came out with a win in the Meadowlands as 14 point underdogs. That just may have been Zach Wilson’s last win as an NFL starter. You know that has been on the Bills mind since, and what do they say about revenge in Buffalo? It’s a dish best served with ranch and blue cheese.
Mike White is a fun guy to root for, but making Buffalo this big of a favorite after their loss to the Jets earlier this year should tell you everything you need to know. Buffalo is out for blood and broken tables. Ten days to prepare, ten point favorites, only 30% of bettors backing them. You know what we like to do with top teams in contrarian spots.
The Pick: Bills -10
Come on Over, Over! Dolphins @ Chargers Total 51.5
The 2020 Draft order: #5 Tua, #6 Herbert. If you haven’t heard it yet, you’ll be sick of it by the end of this Sunday Night matchup. Maybe the Dolphins struggles continue out west, maybe the Chargers continue to disappoint. We don’t care if it’s square - this game is Katy Perry Fireworks and we’re all about it.
RECAP
Buccaneers/49ers UNDER 37.5
Patriots ML (-125)
Browns +5.5
Panthers +4
Giants +7
Bills -10
Dolphins/Chargers OVER 51.5