63 regular season NFL games left. Buckle up.
The 49ers just clinched their division, but 12 playoff spots remain open. This is the weekend where some teams get to punch their ticket, and others swallow the “maybe next year” pill. An extremely entertaining final quarter of the season is upon us.
Handicapping the NFL has been challenging for us this year, but we are determined to find our groove. No excuses - let’s get to work.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 46-46-4 (-3.29 Units)
CFB: 65-45 (+11.16 Units)
Eagles @ Bears +9 Total 48.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Five days ago I was sitting at a bar repeatedly saying “I’m not fading the Eagles again”, yet here we are. It’s like being hungover on Sunday morning telling yourself you’re never drinking that much again, only to be in bed the following weekend sucking down Advil and Chinese food.
I’m mot going to sit here and tell you how the Bears do or don’t matchup well against the Eagles. This has nothing to do with X’s and O’s, but has everything to do with the scheduling spot. All the hype and anticipation is focused around next weeks showdown between the Eagles and Cowboys.
We just saw the Boys have their look ahead spot and almost lose outright to the Texans. Now it’s Philly’s turn.
The Eagles are a great team, but they’re also only 2-4 ATS on the road. Last week they had a divisional road game against the Giants, next week it’s in Dallas. Sandwiched in between those is a trip to Chicago. The Bears are only getting 26% of bets, but 37% of the money. This line opened -8.5 and has moved to -9, but given how hot and heavily bet the Eagles are, that’s not a significant move in our opinion. We’ll take a shot on the Bears with a better number.
The Pick: Bears +9
Patriots @ Raiders -1.5 Total 44.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Hey idiot, wasn’t your best bet the Pats last week? Way to diversify your bonds! I admit, it’s rare to run it back on the same team, but that’s how much I love the Patriots this week.
It’s no secret that Bill Belichick has had success over some of his former assistants, and Josh McDaniels has “most recent victim” written all over him. This game has flipped a few times between who’s the favorite and who’s the dog, with the Raiders currently sitting on top after some big news of returning starters.
It’s certainly not lost on me that the Raiders have found themselves with some questionable lines all year long. Despite making the Playoffs last season and losing to the Bengals on the final play of their Wildcard matchup, they’ve yet to regain their footing.
The Patriots stay out west after beating the Cardinals on Monday Night (one of the lone bright spots to our Week 14 disaster). Despite the win, the Patriots looked far from crisp, and it would be difficult for anyone watching that game to want to side with their lackluster offense in a game on short rest. Most teams staying in Vegas for an extended time would worry me, but with Belichick leading the squad those concerns are at a minimum.
The Raiders have a huge rest advantage coming off the previous Thursday Night, and are returning some big playmakers. Despite their ability to continually choke games away, the pubic has not abandoned the Raiders. I call this The Fantasy Effect, where high performing fantasy studs (Josh Jacobs/Davante Adams) are shielding the casual bettors eyes from more foundational issues. Give me the grittier team, with the better defense, and the better coach in this dogfight.
The Pick: Patriots +1.5
Titans @ Chargers -3 Total 46.5 (Jake’s Best Bet)
The Titans are dying. Losing and failing to cover in three straight. The Chargers are finding a groove, with a season saving victory over the Dolphins in Primetime. Nobody wants Vrabel, and that’s when Jake pounces.
One of the most contrarian plays on the board. Derrick Henry has been Sleeping Beauty and the Chargers D will be his Prince Charming. Must win for both teams, which means Vrable will get it done and Staley will crumble.
The Pick: Titans + 3
Colts @ Vikings -4 Total
The Vikings defense is so bad that I can put aside my hate for Matt Ryan, and actually make a case for him to find success on the road this Saturday.
The Colts had a nice little spark after they hired Jeff Saturday, but the party is over after back-to-back losses against the Steelers and Cowboys.
Indy is coming off a BYE, and has the style of offense that can create serious problems against Minnesota. This Vikings defense HATES tackling and is as slow as molasses. The team as a whole has also had a pretty tough stretch of games after that miraculous win in Buffalo. Sure Indy allowed Dallas to score 54 points, but it wasn’t all by their defense. The Colts can actually hold their own on that side of the ball. Now can Matt Ryan string together some passes, and can Jonathan Taylor find some running room? I think so.
The Vikings are the most heavily bet team of the weekend, yet the line ticked down from -5 to -4.5. Love the matchup with the non trendy, rested road dog here. Still kinda hate Matt Ryan though.
The Pick: Colts +4
Lions @ Jets - 1.5 Total 44.5
Mike White? Joe Flacco? Zach Wilson? No one can say for certain who will start at QB for the Jets this weekend as of now. Stay plugged in to @thedegenweekly, because the final decision might dictate an audible for our pick. For right now, we’re shouting J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets.
The Lions are riding high after a huge divisional win over the Vikings. Over the last six weeks Detroit is 5-1, with their only loss coming on a last second field goal against Buffalo. As hot as any team in the NFL. In 4 of those 5 wins the Lions put up 30+ but their offense is in for a serious wake up call against this Jets defense. Seeing a low total (44.5) and the Jets as a small favorite is telling us this is an ugly game, and that kind of matchup will favor New York.
67% of the public is riding with the Lions, but the money and the line movement is with Fireman Ed.
The Pick: Jets ML
Rams @ Packers -7 Total 39.5
Baker Mayfield is riding the smallest wave in the history of Southern California. A 48 hour turnaround from free agent to TNF comeback win was an amazing story, but it will be short lived. This is textbook public bait, especially with how poor the Packers have looked this year.
Lambeau in late December is no place for a Rams team that is all but eliminated, and putting the 5-8 Packers as touchdown favorites is telling us everything we need to know. It looks like the public is going to get cute riding the trendy dog in primetime with 56% of the bets on the Rams.
Other than the Chicago Bears, the Packers haven’t won a single game this year by more than a field goal. Seven is simply too many points for your typical bettor in this spot, and thats why we love it.
The Pick: Packers -7
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - BOWL PREVIEW
From now till the next time you read our newsletter there will be 15 Bowl Games played. Unfortunately, it’s just too damn difficult to cap all of them this far in advance, given how many players are opting out - whether it be the transfer portal or preparing for the draft. On top of that, we’ve got another coaching carousel. We typically read the teams recent performance to how they ended the season, and compare that with the line Vegas set. The issue is that number is all over the place now with players and coaches missing. Welcome to the new College Football era!
Nevertheless, we will still be betting this Bowl Season, but most likely waiting as close to kickoff as possible for the most up to date information. You can follow us on our website to see what side or total we’re on.
UTSA -1.5 vs Troy Total 56 — We are taking a shot with the Road Runners here. Both teams are red hot, having won 10 straight games to end the season, but it looks like the public is taking a shot on the short dog. The tickets and handle are on Troy, yet the books are not flipping the line. Tells us liability is with UTSA.
The Pick: UTSA -1.5
Louisville -1.5 vs Cincinnati Total 38.5 — Cinci is without their starting QB, but this is nothing recent. He missed the Conference Championship game where the Bearcats lost to Tulane. The spread opened L’Ville -2, but then their starting QB Malik Cunningham declared for the NFL draft and will not be playing. We think it’s bizarre the total dropped 6 points, but the line only dropped .5 a point.
The Pick: Louisville -1.5
Marshall -10.5 vs UConn Total 40.5 — This is our favorite pick of the first round of games. UConn was a covering machine this year, so it’s no surprise that with this many points, they are a trendy dog. What do we with trendy dogs? We fade them! Marshall ended the year winning 4 straight games. With a low total and a big spread, this tells us UConn might have a hard time putting up any points.
The Pick: Marshall -10.5
RECAP
Bears +9
Patriots +1.5
Titans +3
Colts +4
Jets ML (-120)
Packers -7