NFL Week 15 & Bowl Season
The Playoff Push
It’s been a rough two weeks, as we followed up a 2-4 performance with a full fade last week going 0-3. Dino got scared and tweeted off of Seahawks 1H, which would have been our only winner. When Lock was announced in we just couldn’t do it. Let’s hope we got the bumps and bruises out of the way before the home stretch.
There are 63 regular season games left and we absolutely love the board this weekend. Now is not the time to sit and sulk.
“I lost a Ferrari, Las Vegas, Nevada
I woke the followin’ day and went harder” - Lil Baby
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 44-30-1 (+9.57 Units)
CFB: 41-40-2 (-2.86 Units)
NFL WEEK 15
Giants at Saints -6 Total 39.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Tommy fucking Cutelts is the talk of the town. There are so many reasons I didn’t want to make this bet: I live in New York, I love fun, I like Italians, I’m not a big Daniel Jones believer…but I gotta do it.
Tommy Cutlets has revived the once dead New York Giants. He’s the Offensive Player of the Week and winner of 3 straight games. Since the NFC is so bad, the Giants are somehow “in the hunt” of the playoff picture. Fucking A man, fucking A.
But let’s take a step back and take a look at who the Giants have beaten during this stretch. It started with a win at Washington, where the Commanders turned the ball over 4 times. The Giants offense only needed 13 first downs and 290 yards of offense to put up 31 points. Then a 10-7 win at home against the Patriots. We saw Mac Jones get benched for Zappe, yet both QB’s still combined to throw for 3 INT’s, and the GMen only needed 10 first downs to eke out a 10-7 win. Their recent win on MNF over Green Bay was the most impressive, but we know the Packers defense stinks.
Now the Giants travel to the New Orleans to take on a Saints team that is fighting to win the NFC South. I’m not necessarily saying the Saints are good, but I do think they are a much more balanced team than any of the Giants recent opponents. Dennis Allen is a bozo and Carr is a bonehead, but we saw what happened the last time NY played a road game in a dome (lost 49-17 in Dallas).
Giants stock is at an all time high, and the Saints is quite low having just ending a 3 game losing streak. I personally think this spread is very telling. It opened 4.5/5 and got bet up immediately. I find it odd that the Saints are laying the same amount of points against a team that’s on a 3 game winning streak as they were to the Carolina Panthers last week, who are objectively the worst team in the league. It’s hard to trust Derek Carr laying this many points, but the Tommy Cutlets stock may not get higher, and I gotta sell.
The Pick: Saints -6 (-105)
Broncos at Lions -4.5 Total 47.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
One of the better trends I have tuned into this year is a team playing three consecutive road games. So far it’s only happened twice:
Week 11: Titans at Jaguars - Lost 34-14
Week 14: Panthers at Saints - Lost 28-6
Now we get the Broncos, who not only are coming off of a big divisional win, but we get the Lions who are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Bears. Detroit is much better at home and I see this as an ultimate get right spot for a team that has been struggling recently.
The Broncos defense has been a completely different unit since the season started, and I’m not here to take anything away from them (I’m about to) but A LOT of their success has come from timely turnovers. Jared Goff is much better when he doesn’t have to brave the outdoor elements or an away crowd. Expect him to have a stellar outing in this spot and for the Lions to get back on track.
The Pick: Lions -4.5 (-110)
Jets at Dolphins -9.5 Total 37.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Degen is fading the NFC Player of the Week, so naturally Steak steps up with a fade of the AFC Player of the Week. Zach Wilson and the Jets are coming off a blowout win over the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins are coming off a Primetime loss to the 5-8 Tennessee Titans.
Going to be tough to find a better sell high, buy low spot this weekend. Big number against a Jets team that simply refuses to die. Gotta give a ton of credit to their head coach and defense for coming to play week in week out without getting anything from the QB spot, but this weekend the Dolphins put the final nail in the Jets season.
The Pick: Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Vikings at Bengals -3 Total 40.5
Who needs Joe Burrow when you got Jake Browning! The Bengals backup has won back to back starts as Cincinnati continues to fight for a playoff spot. Prior to his time as a backup for Burrow, Browning was on the practice squad for none other than the Minnesota Vikings (thanks to Guy in Cornfields for pointing that out). Which means they should have a good sense of how to exploit his weaknesses and bad habits, especially with how well their defense has been playing.
The Josh Dobbs era has come to an end, and Nick Mullens will lead the charge this weekend, which should allow the Vikes to get back to their typical game plan since Mullens style of play is very similar to the injured Kirk Cousins.
We are late to the party on this one as the line opened at +4 and has moved down to +3 despite heavy action on the Bengals.
The Pick: Vikings +3 (-105)
Steelers at Colts -1.5 Total 42.5
The “Fire Matt Canada” Celebration was incredibly short lived. Immediately following his departure the Steelers beat the Bengals, but then lost back to back games against the Cardinals and the Patriots. Woof.
How about a little silver lining. The Kenny Pickett injury couldn’t have come at a worse time as the Steelers were coming off the departure of the OC, then they had to play one of the best Defenses in the league on a short week for TNF. Mitch Trubisky never stood a chance. But now the chaos has settled a bit. The new OC has had 10 days to prep with Mitch against one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Steelers certainly have issues at their LB core, and it was exposed in the first half against New England, but they did shut out the Pats in the second half and we think they can slow down the Colts enough for the offense to win the the game… or at least cover the short line.
The Pick: Steelers +1.5 (-115)
Buccaneers at Packers -3.5 Total 41.5
If you want to blame anyone for the surge of Tommy DeVito Tik Tok’s point the finger at the Green Bay Packers. Losing outright as a near TD favorite, Green Bay significantly hurt their playoff odds and is making everyone question Jordan Love (again). But this one isn’t about the Packers.
The Buccaneers have had an absurd run of games. Now, not only are they coming off back to back divisional games, but they are about to play their 6th road game in 8 weeks. Absolutely brutal.
Injuries continue to mount on the defensive side of the ball for the Bucs and Lambeau in December is not the place to get right.
The Pick: Packers -3.5 (-105)
Cowboys at Bills -1.5 Total 50.5
This one might be a bit too cute, but we are’t going to hold back. Buffalo saved their season in Kansas City last week and the Cowboys are riding high after rolling over the Eagles. Make no mistake we are not excited about fading this Cowboys team, but they have not been the same team on the road.
7-0 at home and 3-3 on the road. Losing and failing to cover against the 49ers and the Eagles as dogs on the road, and don’t not forget about the loss to the Cardinals as double digit favorites early in the season. Dallas has been a juggernaut lately, but let’s see what they look like after a couple of tough games away from home.
The Pick: Bills ML (-134)
Come on Over, Over: 49ers at Cardinals Total 47.5
A total this high in a divisional matchup? The 49ers have gone over this number once in their last five and the Cardinals have done so twice in the last five. We like some fireworks here!
BOWL SEASON - ROUND 1
Betting on the Bowl games nowadays is a real mother fucker. You never know who’s playing, who’s sitting, who’s transferred, what coaches have left for other jobs, etc. Nonetheless, we’re still going to give it a go.
Miami OH vs Appalachian St -6.5 Total 42.5
This one is mostly a pure line rad. Miami OH is 10-2 and ended the year winning 5 straight games. App St on the other hand is 8-5 and ended the season getting their ass kicked 49-23 to Troy. We haven’t done a deep dive into the full list of transfers that could be impacting the spread outside of the starting QB, and from what we’ve gathered, both are expected to play. If we’re missing something then let us know.
The Pick: App St -6.5
Cal vs Texas Tech -3 Total 56.5
This spread feels a wee bit short! Texas Tech was a trendy team this season. They had a solid 2022 and returned almost all of their starters. Unfortunately, they let a lot of people down who bet their win total, as they finished the season with a disappointing 6-6 record. They did end the season on somewhat of a high note, despite losing to Texas by 50 in their last game (lol). Before that, the Red Raiders beat UCF and Kansas on the road. Cal was a below average team all season, and then ended the year winning 3 straight against Wazzou, Stanford and UCLA. All three of their opponents aren’t very good, but we think this may have been a shot in the arm for the Golden Bears, and will ride that momentum into this game.
The Pick: Cal +3
RECAP:
NFL
Saints -6 (-105) Degen’s Best Bet
Lions -4.5 (-110) Dino’s Best Bet
Dolphins -9.5 (-110) Steak’s Best Bet
Vikings +3 (-105)
Steelers +1.5 (-115)
Packers -3.5 (-105)
Bills ML (-135)
49ers/Cardinals Over 47.5 (-110)
App St -6.5 (-115)
Cal +3 (-110)