NFL Week 16 and Bowl Season Continues
The End is Near
Five teams clinched a playoff spot last week. A frigid Week 16 should offer more of the same.
Last week was a bit of a dog fight, but it was a winning week and we’ll take them anyway we can get them. The big story for Week 16 is the ice cold temperatures we’ll see across the country. This doesn’t impact our picks in terms of what teams we are betting, but it certainly has an impact on totals. As of now we are laying off any overs/unders, but check @thedegenweekly to see if something catches our eye on Sunday. Shit - we mean Saturday! All the games are one day closer due to the holiday weekend. No time to waste!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Degenerate Family. Let’s bring you some winners!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 49-48-5 (-2.56 Units)
CFB: 67-46 (+11.98 Units)
Lions @ Panthers +3 Total 43.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
The Lovable Losers have become the Lovable Winners. Dan Campbell has Detroit .500 after a 1-6 start, and even in fucking playoff contention. Amazing.
The Lions have won 6 of their last 7 games, and covered in all 7. Indoors, outdoors, warm weather, cold weather - it doesn’t matter. They were doubted and they proved us wrong. We are not here to fade the Lions hoping they are “due” for a loss. It brings us no joy to put a unit against his team, but it must be done.
If you followed us on Twitter (@thedegenweekly) you would have seen that early Sunday morning, we started to fall in love with the Steelers (+2.5) @ Carolina. They covered and won outright. It won’t take us that long to come around to that similar feeling again, but this time it’s backing Carolina. A line that always intrigues us is a short, trendy favorite just below 3 points. The books setting the line at -2.5 makes a bettor feel all warm and cozy saying “they only have to win by a field goal”. Now give that spread to a team that can’t be beat, against an “inferior” opponent, and you’ve got yourself the heaviest bet team of the weekend!
Detroit is taking in 88% of the bets on the spread, and 87% of the bets on the ML. Yet we’ve seen line go from -3 to -2.5.
The Pick: Panthers +2.5
Raiders @ Steelers -2.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
These are the moments that make being a sports fan so god damn romantic.
Messi winning the World Cup in his final attempt. Win one for the Gipper! The Lakers brining the title home after Kobe’s tragic death. Fast 7 winning the Oscar* after Paul Walkers death. Well… maybe not the last one, but you get the point. There are moments where the game is more than just a game, and that’s what we get to see on Saturday Night in Pittsburgh.
Read that tweet again. Powerful stuff. Full disclosure, I’m a Steelers fan so maybe this one hits a harder for me than most. But Franco being the 3rd Steeler to have his jersey number retired and passing away a few days before the honor is a script you can’t write. If you don’t think Mike Tomlin is going to have this team ready to run through a brick wall then I don’t know what to tell ya. The defense might have 10 sacks. Even though the Steelers have two divisional games following Raiders, this game just became their Super Bowl.
Storyline aside, your average fans looks at this game and sees the wrong team being favored. Sure they both sit at 6-8, but the Raiders have clearly showed more promise through the season.
Pittsburgh is getting 46% of the bets, but 71% of the money. One of the few bets where you get to use your heart and your brain.
The Pick: Steelers -2
(*Peoples Choice Award, basically the same thing.)
Bengals @ Patriots +3 Total 41.5
You’re lucky we left the Bucs +3.5 off last week, because betting Cincinnati to blow them out was just too easy. A week later, and Vegas is giving us the same bait?
Not on Jakes watch! 13% of the bets are on New England. THIRTEEN PERCENT! No one believes in this shitty offense or mediocre Mac Jones. They lost last week with one of the most un-Belichick type plays you will ever see. But riddle us this…why did the line move from 3.5 to 3 with all the bets on the Bengals?
The Pick: Patriots +3
Packers @ Dolphins -4 Total 50
The Dolphins get their first home game in the month of December on Christmas Day. After two games out west and a divisional game in Buffalo, the fish return home. Seems a bit too obvious of a get right spot, no? Especially considering they went 0-3 on the road trip.
This game opened at Miami -5.5 and has been bet all the way down to -3.5. A trend we’ve been keeping our eye on are dogs around 6/5.5 on the opener getting hit hard early in the week, and the books adjusting the line at least 2 points. This just cashed in back to back weeks with the Panthers (at Seattle) and Jags (vs Cowboys). It even started coming through as early as when the Niners played in Atlanta and lost outright (opened 6 and closed 3.5).
Aaron Rodgers may not make the Playoffs, but he’s not going down easy.
The Pick: Packers +3.5
Texans @ Titans -3.5 Total 35.5
Everyone who has watched rookie Malik Willis knows one thing about him: he stinks. Tennessee will be without Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season (ankle injury), which means this teams playoff chances just took a nosedive - especially with the Jags playing hot as of late.
The Texans are headed in the right direction since the return of Davis Mills. Covering and almost winning in back to back weeks against some of the NFL’s best (Dallas and Kansas City).
Sure we like Vrable, but this is about people making the cardinal sin in NFL gambling: believing in Lovie Smith. It ain’t gonna be pretty, but Tennessee finds a way to get it done, and the Texans find a way to come up short of covering.
The Pick: Titans -3.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - BOWL PREVIEW
The games are starting to get more interesting! We went 2-1 in the last weeks newsletters set of picks. Here, there are many we have our eye on, but not all we want to make official. Again - there is just too much uncertainty, and we’d rather see what the market does closer to kickoff. But for now, this is what we are eyeing…
Wake Forest vs Missouri +2.5 Total 58.5 — High profile QB Sam Hartman was not expected to play, but now he is. The line flipped back to Wake Forest -3.5 after they opened short dogs, but there’s been a little buyback on Missouri since, bringing the line to -2.5. As contrarians, we are going to sell the good news and back Mizz.
The Pick: Missouri +2.5
Coastal Carolina vs ECU -7.5 Total 63.5 — We don’t really care if Grayson McCall is playing or not for Coastal. This line seem too high, and we think it’s for a reason.
The Pick: ECU -7.5
Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State +3.5 Total 43.5 — Should Wisconsin be the favorite? We don’t think so, and the public doesn’t think so either. They’re gobbling up OK State with the points, yet the line is not moving. What do we do to trendy dogs? We fade them!
The Pick: Wisconsin -3.5
Kansas vs Arkansas -3.5 Total 68.5 — As long as KJ Jefferson is playing, we are backing the Jayhawks. This pick is about who’s more motivated. We’d have to imagine that a team like Kansas, who despite losing their last 3 games of the season, had a pretty exciting year. We’d have to imagine they would love nothing more than to take down an SEC opponent in their bowl game.
The Pick: Kansas +3.5
Oregon vs North Carolina +14.5 Total 74 — Holy mother of god, I can’t believe how high this line is. There is nothing we even care to look into with a number this large. It just tells us that Oregon is likely going to destroy the Tar Heels.
The Pick: Oregon -14.5
RECAP
Panthers +2.5
Steelers -2
Patriots +3.5
Packers +3.5
Titans -3.5
CFB
Missouri +2.5
ECU -7.5
Kansas +3.5
Wisconsin -3.5
Oregon -14.5