NFL Week 17 & Bowl Season Finale
It's Almost Over Now
Only 5 playoff spots remain with 15 teams still “In the Hunt”
Coming off a 3-2 performance in both NFL and College Football. A winning week is a winning week - let’s build some momentum heading into the Playoffs.
Again, not all our college picks are in the newsletter, because the bowls are too difficult to predict early on with players opting out. If you’re interested in knowing what we are on for each game then be sure to follow us on Twitter @thedegenweekly or check our website thedegenerateweekly.com
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 52-50-5 (-1.83 Units)
CFB: 70-48 (+12.71 Units)
Panthers @ Buccaneers -3 Total 40.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
The look ahead line for this game was -7.5. Now it’s down to -3. Think about that. Tom Brady in week 17 is only a field goal favorite at home, with a playoff berth on the line, against fucking Sam Darnold.
This Bucs team is bad, man. Real bad. They were just life and death against Trace McSorley, and somehow escaped with a win. Bowles is a bad coach, Leftwich is an awful OC, Mike Evans is nowhere to be found, the O line sucks, and Tom is old. With all that said…they’re still my favorite bet this week.
Now it should be noted that the Bucs could lose this game and still win the division, but I don’t think it comes to that. The Panthers are on fire after trading CMC and firing doofus Matt Rhule. They’ve won 4/6 and covered in 5/6. Carolina finds themselves as a bit of a trendy dog on the road in Tampa this weekend. Bettors probably remember the Panthers beat the Bucs outright as a double digit home dog back in October, and of course see the recent success the Panthers have had.
No, we are not playing the “revenge” angle here. The Panthers are still a team that’s 1-5 on the road this season, and now have Sam Darnold in a divisional game with meaning. This more so a full fade of Daronld with something to play for in January. Typically I’d take the ML on a short favorite, but fuck it. Go Bucs.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3
Saints @ Eagles -6.5 Total 42 (Greg’s Best Bet)
This line felt low when Gardner Minshew was expected to start, but now there’s a real chance that Hurts will be ready to return. Philly still sitting under a Touchdown? That’s bait. No one knows for sure what Hurts status will be come Sunday afternoon, but public bettors absolutely love the Shew, so I’m taking the Saints either way.
This is about as pure of a line freeze as you can hope to see. It likely has a little to do with Hurts uncertainty, but it’s very difficult not to question 79% of the bets and 83% of the money on Philly, and the line holding strong at -6.5. I don’t think your typical bettor will even question this one. They believe in Minshew, and why shouldn’t they - he was a few plays away from beating the Cowboys on the road last week.
Although the Eagles haven’t clinched the #1 seed or a Playoff BYE, they are essentially two games up on the Vikings/49ers with two games remaining. Next week they have a seemingly important game against the New York Giants, but it’s highly likely the Gmen will be resting their starters in preparation for Wild Card Weekend.
So you’re telling me the #1 seed, at home, is getting less than a touchdown against Andy Dalont? Yea okay…
The Pick: Saints +7 (buy .5 point)
Dolphins @ Patriots -3 Total 41 (Jake’s Best Bet)
This is a perfect storm of what you like to see as a contrarian bettor. No wonder it’s Jake’s best bet. Tua’s 7th concussion of the season opens the door for Teddy Bridgwater to make the start, and this is the game the Teddy was born to win.
The Pick: Dolphins +3
Broncos @ Chiefs -12.5 Total 44.5
Goodbye to the worst head coach since Urban Meyer. If you’ve been following us long enough you know one of our favorite system plays is betting on a team after their coach gets fired - especially if the coach was a bit of a doofus.
What’s making us like this even more is that the line is moving towards Denver, despite them giving up 50+ to Baker Mayfield last week. Andy Reid and the Chiefs have absolutely dominated the Broncos, wining 14 straight. However…Denver has covered 3 of the last 4.
One last time! Broncos Country… Let’s Ride!
The Pick: Broncos +12.5
49ers @ Raiders -9.5 Total 42
It appears as though Derek Carr has played his last game as a Raider, as they look to move to Jarrett Stidham for the remainder of the season.
Here’s whats interesting from a line movement perspective once the change was announced.
The total moved from 43.5 down to 42.
The Raiders moved from +5.5 to +9.5.
This appears to be a bit of an overreaction based on the bad news, and we’re buying it.
The 49ers been on absolute fire lately. Winning eight in a row, but more impressively going 6-0 ATS over their last six. Brock Purdy cannot be stopped, and it’s certainly not going to be the lowly Raiders, with a backup QB that do it. Is it?
The Pick: Raiders +9.5
Come on Over, Over! Cardinals @ Falcons OVER 42
One of the grossest games of the weekend. Neither team has anything to play for. Desmond Ridder vs Colt McCoy. Both teams coming off an absolute dud last week offensively. What’s catching our eye is that in the year of the under, this game, with these offenses, is sitting in the low 40’s and creeping up. 31% of the bets, but 48% of the money on the over. Welcome back Xtina!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL - BOWL PREVIEW
Notre Dame vs South Carolina +3.5 Total 50.5 —
The Gamecocks are riding about as high as you can imagine. It’s hard to end the season any stronger than beating the piss out of Tennessee and following that up with a win at rival Clemson. Spencer Rattler, who I despise, actually looked pretty damn good to end the year. Now it’s his last shot to impress NFL scouts in Jacksonville against a stout ND defense.
The Irish also bounced back quite nicely after two embarrassing home losses against Marshal and Stanford. ND won 5 games in a row before losing it’s finale to USC. Former starting QB Drew Pyne has entered the transfer portal, and stud TE Michael Mayer, who’s been given the nickname “Baby Gronk” has declared for the NFL Draft. ND was already limited with offensive firepower, so that’s a huge blow for Irish backers.
The line opened ND -5.5, and is now down to 3.5 after the bad news. It still looks like ND is taking in the slight majority of bets, so the sharp play is with the Cocks. However, we will not be following it. Instead we are going to look at the total. This number opened 53 and has been bet down to 50.5. I’m sure it’s correlated to the QB and TE news for Notre Dame, but this also makes football sense in my opinion.
South Carolina scored a combined 94 points in it’s last two games, so it’s no surprise that the over is taking in 70% of the bets. But it’s important to note that the under is where the sharp money is. I think it’s because this Irish pass defense ranks 20th in the country. Parlay that with the fact that their offense is lacking firepower, I think we see a tight, low scoring game.
The Pick: UNDER 50.5
Maryland vs NC State -1.5 Total 45.5 — The Wolfpack will be playing their third string QB in this game, and still went dog to favorite. As long as Tua’s brother is starting for Maryland, which is sounds like he is, we are going to be fading the Terps today. The Wolfpack defense should keep them in it, as Maryland is also without their top 3 Wide Receivers. Give us the bad, but not terrible, news here.
The Pick: NC State -1.5
Tulane vs USC -2.5 Total 62.5 — We always like to target a motivational angle in bowl games. I cannot think of a more motivated team than Tulane potentially taking down USC and heisman winner Caleb Williams. Now, this pick is all depending on if Williams plays, so let’s keep an eye on that. If he does, we will be rocking with the Green Wave and that nasty defense.
The Pick: Tulane +2.5
TCU vs Michigan -7.5 Total 58.5 —
We expected a letdown spot from Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game, and unfortunately didn’t get it. The Wolverines repeated last year in that they covered after beating Ohio State. We all remember how they followed that up though, right? An absolute ass kicking by Georgia in their first CFB Playoff game. Michigan must feel like it’s dodged a bullet by not having to face an SEC opponent and potentially getting embarrassed again.
The Horned Frogs ran the table through the regular season, and are still getting doubted. Sure we know they had some luck by facing a few backup QB’s, but fuck that. This team showed us that they’re a legitimate problem. I think the best thing that could’ve happened to TCU was losing the Big 12 Championship game against K State. To some, this may feel like a battle of David vs Goliath, but after watching Max Duggan rush for 110 yards against K St, there’s no way I’m fading him.
This line opened Michigan -10 and sharps hit TCU early. The Total also opened 60.5 and is now down to 58.5, which of course makes us like the dog even more. Give me Max Duggan or give me death.
The Pick: TCU +7.5
Ohio State vs Georgia -6.5 Total 62.5 —
CJ Stroud did not impress much throughout this season. We kept waiting for it to happen, but it never did. And not even Jim Knowles could fix that defense. Ohio State might actually not be that good, but you know how our brains work. That’s what everyone is thinking, and that’s why Georgia is getting 80% of the bets and 89% of the money, yet the line isn’t moving or has dropped to 6.5.
That’s really all we need to see.
The Pick: Ohio State +7 (buy .5 point)
RECAP
NFL
Buccaneers -3
Saints +7 (buy .5 point)
Dolphins +3
Broncos +12.5
Raiders +9.5
Cardinals/Falcons OVER 42
College Football
ND/South Carolina UNDER 50.5
NC State -1.5
Tulane +2.5
TCU +7.5
Ohio State +7 (buy .5 point)