It’s been a great NFL regular season, but quite frankly, we here at The Degenerate are drained. We’re taking a light card with our best bets only as we tune up for Super Wildcard Weekend.
This week lends itself to spoilers aplenty with half of the divisions left unclaimed and even more wildcard spots available. It’s just a bit tricky based on motivation, or lack there of for a lot of teams.
Let’s get after it.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 53-37-1 (+10.64 Units)
CFB: 41-42-2 (-4.86 Units)
NFL WEEK 17
Bears at Packers -3 Total 45 (Degens Best Bet)
In all honesty, I really don’t have a “best bet” for Week 18. It’s been a grind of an NFL season - I’m exhausted and ready for the playoffs. I actually had the Colts typed up and deleted it halfway, because I decided I didn’t want my final best bet of the season to be fading CJ Stroud. I’ve been on the phone with Greg and Steak for the last hour going back and forth about which team to go with. Honestly, I kinda like the fucking Jets Commanders (lol), but they both vetoed Washington, and it’s probably best I don’t advise betting Trevor Siemian to anyone. Ultimately, it’s best to go with a game that has implications, so that’s where I landed.
The Chicago Bears have been gritty as hell the past few weeks. And you know who’s the opposite of gritty? The Green Bay Packers.
When the Packers hosted Tampa a few weeks ago, I had GB as my best bet, and I wasn’t alone. A lot of other smart bettors loved GB in that spot, except Steak. And I’ll never forget what he said: “Tampa has been playing like dawgs, and the Packers are soft”. He was right. Baker Mayfield set a record for the best performance ever by an opposing QB in Lambeau Field. I then leaned into Green Bay’s Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry being awful, and faded them with the Vikings as my best bet last weekend. Unfortunately, he put on a masterclass against Jaren Hall. All of this while I’m holding the largest future wager of the season on the Packers over 7.5 wins, which thankfully did cash.
Now here I am again. Ready, willing and able to fade Green Bay one last time. I like Jordan Love and I like their young offense longterm, but I still do not respect this defense, and I’m also not sure this young team is one I’d trust in the final game of the season with the playoffs on the line. Win and they’re in (I think), so that tees up Chicago to play the ultimate spoiler. A Chicago Bears team that has been owned by Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay for what feels like centuries. Who can forget last year when the stage was set the same exact way, and Dan Campbell lead the Lions to upset the Packers and ruin their season. I can’t help but think that Justin Fields, who’s still auditioning for the Bears starting QB position next season, come into this game and treat it like they’re Super Bowl.
The Pick: Bears +3 (-110)
Jaguars at Titans +3.5 Total 40.5
One of the bigger spoiler spots this weekend as the Jaguars travel to their division rival for the final game of the year. The Jags have absolutely everything to play for - with a win they clinch the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence is back after missing Week 17 and all signs point to Jacksonville pulling out the win against the lowly Titans who have nothing to play for.
They might be one of the more trendy spoilers this week, but I absolutely love the Titans. Not only do you have a complete psycho of a head coach who could care less that actually losing this game would result in a better game for the Titans. But you get Derrick Henry in what could be his last game with Tennessee, suiting up against a team he has thrived against for his entire career. And the cherry on top is that Will Levis might not healthy enough to go, which would signal in Ryan Tannehill for what could very likely be the final start of his professional career.
Last year the Jaguars got a bit lucky and beat the Titans (with Josh Dobbs) in Week 18 to take the Division, and you just know Tennessee is not the type of club to pack it in when they have a chance to send the Jags packing.
The Pick: Titans +3.5 (-110)
Seahawks at Cardinals +3 Total 47.5 (Steaks Best Bet)
Of course Steak likes the game that makes no sense. Again, we see a divisional home underdog with nothing to play for - except to spoil their rivals shot at the playoffs.
Many of the lines this week have been moving in favor of the team with more to play for. Makes sense, right? Increased motivation, everything on the line, it’s only natural that bettors would want to back that side.
This one is a bit different. Despite having more to play for AND receiving more bets, the line has moved away from Seattle: 3.5 → 3. Steak can’t resist.
The Pick: Cardinals +3 (-120)
***Honorable Mention****
Browns at Bengals -7 Total 37.5 (Just for fun)
Ok - Dino here again. Not counting this one towards our record because I’m on a bit of an island. But It’s a spot I am compelled to share. If only for a small .5 unit play.
Browns ML
Why? The Browns have nothing to play for and they are resting all their starters. I’ll give you my three reasons why I love this spot for a bit of fun on Sunday in an otherwise meaningless game.
1.) Again, this game doesn’t matter for either team. The Bengals are eliminated, the Browns are locked into the #5. It is essentially a pre-season game. And how does head coach Zac Taylor perform in the pre-season? Since his start in 2019 Taylor is 3-9-1 straight up, certainly worth a look to fade with such a big number.
2.) Head coach matchup: Stefanski vs. Taylor. Another spot to look to fade Taylor. In the 7 matchups where these coaches have faced each other Taylor is 1-6 vs. Stefanski, a bit shocking - especially when you consider how dominate the Bengals have been in recent years.
3.) Joe Flacco has been an amazing story line, but he’s on the sideline this weekend. Getting the start is none other than former Bengal, Jeff Driskel. If you don’t love a career backup getting a shot at revenge against his former team in a meaningless game, then I don’t know what to tell you. This is a spot I simply can’t pass up.
Not going crazy, and not an official play because at the end of the day it’s backups and the game means nothing. But I’m already punched in for .5 units on the ML
The Pick: Browns ML +240
RECAP:
NFL
Colts +1.5 (-110) Degen’s Best Bet
Titans +3.5 (-110) Dino’s Best Bet
Cardinals +3 (-110) Steak’s Best Bet
Honorable mention - Meaningless game of the Week: Browns ML