NFL Week 18 & The College Football Championship
The Calm Before the Storm
The regular season is almost over, but there is only one story line from Week 17.
Scary stuff from the Monday Night game, but thankfully we’ve got some positive news.
This Week 18 is a bit more dull than usual, based on the literal life or death situation that has been unfolding all week. From a gambling perspective, we are going extremely light this week based on the amount of games that have no meaning, and the uncertainty as to how the NFL will determine playoff seeding in the AFC in lieu of Mondays cancellation.
Nevertheless, we have a few spots where we are taking some honest swings. So let’s dive into the regular season one last time before the real fireworks start in Super Wild Card Weekend.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 56-51-5 (+1.64 Units)
CFB: 73-50 (+13.36 Units)
Cowboys @ Commanders +7 Total 40.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
As a sports bettor, these are some of my favorite situations to bet on. A team that has seemingly nothing to play for, against a team that does. Then you add into that a rookie QB making his first start…ohhh BABY!
The Dallas Cowboys are hoping for a miracle to win the division. If the Eagles somehow go down as a 14 point favorite vs the Giants, and Dallas can beat Washington, then they end up with the NFC East title and a home playoff game. That’s a big deal for big D, so naturally, everyone on the planet is betting on them to win this weekend. The Cowboys are your most public bet of the weekend taking in 90% of ML tickets and 82% of spread tickets. But I say NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND…
Look, I don’t exactly look forward to wrapping up the NFL season betting on the Washington Commanders. I went to FedEx Field this year - it was awful. I don’t like Ron Rivera and I don’t like Dan Snyder (who does). But what I do love is how fucking gross this spot is for them. The total has also dropped from 42 to 40.5, which always makes me like the dog even more.
The Pick: Commanders +7
Rams @ Seahawks -6 Total 41.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Quick NFC Playoff breakdown:
Packers: win and in
Lions: win and Seahawks loss
Seahawks: win and Packers loss
Easy enough. Last year the Rams Super Bowl was well… the Super Bowl. This year it’s the opportunity to eliminate their division rival from the playoffs and enter the offseason with a little bit of pride. In some instances, a team in the Rams situation might be looking to lose this game in favor of a better draft pick. However, the Rams traded away their 1st rounder next year to the Lions, so that’s a non-issue.
This line at -6 is pure bait. The game means everything for Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. It would absolutely be over a touchdown if Vegas thought they’d take care of business.
Last week the Rams got embarrassed in the battle of LA (lol) by a Chargers team with nothing to play for, and now the Seahawks aren’t even getting a TD in a game with real playoff implications. It opened at -6.5 and has since moved down to -6, but what’s really catching my eye are the splits on the ML. Seattle is getting 72% of the bets, but only 46% of the money in a must win spot. Spoiler alert incoming.
The Pick: Rams +6
Titans @ Jaguars -6.5 Total 40 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Last week the Titans were +13.5 at home against the Cowboys (lost by 14), a week later and they’re +6.5 against the red hot Jaguars. Smells fishy to us, and Jake is the Codfather.
Winner of this game clinches the AFC South. Jacksonville’s won 4 straight. Tennessee’s lost 6 in a row. Trevor Lawrence vs. Joshua Dobbs. Make it Nasty.
The Pick: Titans +6.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
TCU vs Georgia -12.5 Total 62.5
It absolutely pains us to say this, as we love the Frogs and Max Duggan…but we think it’s Georgia. This spread is just too big, and TCU finds themselves in a spot no team wants to be in a game of this magnitude - the dreaded trendy dog.
We typically like to take advantage of an opportunity where you have a top team in a contrarian spot, but it’s just no fun fading this Frogs team. Instead, we will be looking to the total. This game opened 62 and is now up to 62.5, but that’s a very insignificant move if you take a look at the splits. The over is getting HAMMERED with bets: 82% of the tickets are on the over, but it’s only accounting for 37% of the money. There are some sharps on the under here, and we like it.
The College Football Playoff we just witnessed might have been the best ever. TCU/Michigan had 96 points, and OSU/UGA had 83. The public already loves betting the over in primetime games, but they love it even more after seeing almost 200 points scored last weekend.
The Pick: UNDER 62.5
RECAP
NFL
Commanders +7
Rams +6
Titans +6.5
College Football
TCU/Georgia UNDER 62.5