NFL Week 2 & College Football Week 3
Overreaction Time
Heck of a start! Can’t get too high or too low though - lotta season left, but it was certainly a great weekend to be a contrarian bettor.
Sadly, we forgot a pick in our write up. This is all the more reason to follow us on twitter if you haven’t already @thedegenweekly.
Theme for this weekend: Overreactions. Before you go crowning or writing off a team after their Week 1 performance, let us remind you that both AFC & NFC #1 Seeds last year (Packers & Titans) lost their opening games by double digits. Relaxxxxx.
Unfortunately, most bettors will not be reminded of this, and as contrarian bettors, we want to read where people are overreacting and pick our spots to fade the public. Even after just one game, we can capitalize on some good buy low/sell high spots.
Before jumping in - we wanted to welcome our new subscribers, and give a big shoutout to @Krabs_bets and @jovan_deeb - two dudes who are must follows for the remainder of the football season. We will also be featuring Jovan each week with his favorite College Football pick and write up for the rest of the season.
Let’s get into it.
Current Record YTD
NFL: 8-1 (+6 Units)
CFB: 7-3 (+3.37 Units)
NFL WEEK 2
Patriots @ Steelers +1.5 Total 40.5 - (Brandon’s Best Bet)
I just want to make this very clear - we do NOT like this Patriots team. If you joined in on any of our Twitter spaces or read our season previews, you’d know the main reason why is because of who’s in charge of their offense this year (see pic). It’s actually kind of a mystery, because that’s just what Belichick does, and it’s getting old.
The greatest head coach of all time has become more of a stubborn, arrogant and insufferable prick. Whereas he used to just be a really successful prick that people tolerated because all he did was win. Now, the tone in Boston has totally changed, as even the most die hard Boston fans who celebrated with SB parades every year are writing off this team, and for good reason.
However, we are throwing all of that out the window in this Week 2 matchup. Why? Because we read lines, not teams. The Patriots being favored here is a guaranteed head scratcher, and we always lean into this. Is the wrong team favored? One may assume so, but we tend to think Vegas doesn’t make many mistakes. The Patriots did not look great in their 20-7 loss down in Miami. On the flip side, the Steelers Defense made Joe Burrow look like Nathan Peterman, forcing 5 turnovers and stealing a W from the defending AFC Champs on the road. Buy low, sell high.
Pittsburgh is getting an overwhelming majority of bets here, yet the Patriots opened -1 and are now up to -2.5. TJ Watt appears to be out for a bit, and we usually buy the bad news, but not in this spot given how nobody is into this Patriots team.
The Pick: Patriots ML (-130)
Bears @ Packers -10 Total 41.5 (Greg’s Best Bets)
Look… it’s far from typical for us to be taking a lot of highly favored teams (spoiler alert) to cover big spreads. But after the chaos of Week 1 and the lines Vegas is putting out there, they’re the right play. Out of all of them, this one stands above the rest. The Chicago Bears are public dogs against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Think about that for a second. Just one second. Going into this year, would everyone be running to bet the Bears in this spot? Absolutely not. But one rainstorm and an opening dud from Rodgers later, and the public has completely forgotten who these teams are.
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee – that says, fool me once, shame on – shame on you. Fool me – you can’t get fooled again” -
We’ve been here 1,000 times before, and we’ve fallen for this in the past, but the whole point of this newsletter is to help some of you who are new to the game spot the public misconceptions and traps. Last year the Packers stumbled out of the gate, losing 38-3 to the Saints. Then what? They won 7 in a row and went on to become the one seed in the NFC.
This pick isn’t about last year, it’ss about where the money sits. The Packers are getting 26% of the bets BUT 78% of the handle. Sharper then a Hattori Hanzo sword.
The Pick: Packers -10
Falcons @ Rams -9.5 Total 47.5
Hard to believe it, but the Atlanta Falcons are public dogs in LA. We think this is less of an overreaction with the Falcons almost beating the Saints, and more about the Bills embarrassing the Rams in the season opener. ATL is taking 57% of the bets and 61% of the money - a situation we typically wouldn’t fade. However, there is just too much of a negative narrative surrounding the returning Super Bowl Champs not to dabble with a buy low spot.
It’s not out of the ordinary for a team to come out flat after winning the Super Bowl, but the Bills threw a cold bucket of water on these guys and slapped ‘em across the face. They woke up a sleeping giant and now the Falcons will have to pay the price.
The Pick: Rams -9.5
Bucs @ Saints +2.5 Total 44.5
If you didn’t already know the Saints have Brady’s number in a Bucs uniform during the regular season, then now you do. We’re sure you’ve heard it all week on ESPN or whatever sports media outlet you listen to. Look, we are not one to fade trends, but once they start to go mainstream, that’s when we strike.
The Bucs and Brady have somehow found themselves in a contrarian spot after an offseason full of O-line injuries/departures and divorce rumors. Tom took 2 weeks off abruptly and had many football fans scratching their head. Masked singer, vacation, divorce, botox and plastic surgery jokes were a plenty on Twitter. Bettors were quick to run and hammer the Bucs win total under, which has 88% of the handle. Ballsy! On the flip side, everyone was getting cute picking the Saints to not only go over their win total, but as a sleeper to win the division. To that, we say:
Sure, the Bucs settled for field goals in Dallas in their Week 1 win, but they dominated that game, and the defense looked great. This is a pissed off Bucs team who’s getting no respect, but even more terrifying, a pissed off Tom Brady. They’re also very banged up - but that doesn’t scare us. You should already know by now that as contrarian bettors we buy bad news. Is Chris Godwin playing? Doesn’t matter. Is Mike Evans okay? Doesn’t matter. The Bucs opened -3 and the line moved down to -2.5? Doesn’t matter! All that matters is chumps who think they’re smarter than the books because “the Saints own the Bucs” are about to feel pain. Couldn’t be us.
The Pick: Bucs ML (-145)
Dolphins @ Ravens -3.5 Total 44.5
Tough to play the overreaction angle with both these teams winning and covering last week, but it’s important not to read too much into the Dolphins win. They always beat the Pats in Miami, especially when it’s early in the season. So shame on us for fading, but on to the next.
Last year after beating NE in Week 1, the Dolphins followed it up by getting absolutely massacred by the Bills 35-0 - the start of a 7 game losing streak. Now, this is a new Dolphins team, but the Ravens match-up nicely here. Despite destroying the Jets on the scoreboard, Baltimore certainly looked more than rusty most of the game. Chalk it up to Lamar sitting out the preseason. There’s a decent amount of hype around both teams, and this line feels fair, but our bet is that the Ravens were holding back and still working out some kinks in Week 1. We expect a much more polished performance in their home opener.
The Pick: Ravens -3 -120 (buy the hook)
Seahawks @ Niners -8.5 Total 42.5
Good on ya, Geno Smith. A very impressive performance and a slew of Broncos coaching snafus led Seattle to a victory in their home opener. The big question is how much did Seattle leave on the field in that upset win on primetime.
It’s absolutely worth noting that Pete Carroll has owned the 49ers over his career. Even our beloved COY candidate Kyle Shanahan is 2-8 all time vs. Seattle. Trey Lance played like a wet blanket in the Chicago monsoon, and his haters are beginning to write him off. Maybe he does stink, but therein lies the problem. You have a team that lost to the Chicago Bears, with an inexperienced QB, likely playing without Kittle, traditionally underperforming against a divisional opponent, and guess what? Vegas still makes em heavy favorites.
Are you picking up what we’re putting down? Everyone looking at this game is saying thats wayyy too many points, as 84% of the bets are on the Seahawks.
Contrarian’s…ASSEMBLE!
The Pick: 49ers -8.5
Bookie Pick of the Week: We didn’t like the last one, but we do like this one! We went with the Commanders last weekend because nobody likes Carson Wentz. Even after a comeback win against the Jags, he is still not liked. The public will flock to the lovable losers that are the Detroit Lions, who are favored for the first time in 24 games.
The Pick: Commanders +1.5
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Titans @ Bills Total 48 - Any total under 50 feels low for the Bills. A primetime spot in an early MNF game where you know the public will be thirsty for points. The over has 57% of the bets, but the under is seeing 63% of the money. Total opened 50 and moved down two points…
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3
#6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska +10.5 Total 66.5
If you’ve followed us, then you know betting on a team after they fire their coach is a system play. Any sport, any team. Doesn’t matter what the line is, doesn't matter where the game is played - literally nothing matters other than the teacher is out and the substitute is in. The kids will have fun!
Scott Frost really, really deserved it though. We gave him the benefit of the doubt and took Nebraska’s season win total over 7.5, but quickly regretted it. Props to Nebraska for not even waiting 15 more days to save millions of dollars on his buyout before they said SEE YA! For what it’s worth, Nebraska is also getting just 16% of the bets but 27% of the money. Oklahoma opened as a 14 point favorite and the line is now sitting at 10.5. LOVE IT. Also, the Huskers will be making history…be on the right side of it.
The Pick: Nebraska +10.5
Purdue @ Syracuse -1.5 Total 60
The Syracuse Orange might be for real. There’s always that team we try to find value on that comes out of nowhere, and so far it’s been Kansas. But perhaps it’s Syracuse we should keep our eyes on? Well, they fit one of our favorite systems this weekend against Purdue. Cuse opened as a short +1 dog, but they’ve now flipped to a -1.5 point favorite. This is also despite Purdue getting the majority of the bets (per vsin.com/splits). In Week 1, Syracuse took down Louisville 31-7, and L’Ville was one of the sharpest teams of the weekend. After two impressive weeks, now the smart money is in love with the Orange. Let’s hop in and squeeze some juice.
The Pick: Syracuse ML (-125)
Ohio @ Iowa State -18.5 Total 49.5
As we target overreaction spots in the NFL, we will be doing the same with “letdown” spots in College. These are prime opportunities to take advantage of live dogs where the favorite might be feeling themselves a bit too much. Enter: Iowa State. ISU just beat Iowa on the road as a 3.5 point dog. It was ugly, and we were on the Hawkeyes, but a win is a win. Now Ohio comes in, who just lost to Penn St 46-10, and they’re seeing sharp money. Weird, right? Ohio opened +21 have now been bet down to +18.5. Yes, we are late to the party, but we don’t care.
The Pick: Ohio +18.5
#12 BYU @ #24 Oregon -3.5 Total 57.5
To the average bettor, this gives the “wrong team favored” vibes. To a sharp bettor, you know that Vegas doesn’t often make mistakes. So when the #24th ranked team is favored over the #12th ranked team, it’s usually for a reason. Oregon got embarrassed opening week against Georgia, and then returned home to clobber a nobody. Meanwhile, BYU just took down #9 Baylor in primetime. We backed BYU then for the same exact reason we are fading them now. They were ranked #25 and favored over the “better” team. You can bet your ass the public is all over BYU in this one, yet the line isn’t budging. Quack.
The Pick: Oregon -3.5
Troy @ Appalachian State -12.5 Total 52.5
There’s not much to like about this Troy team. They lost to Ole Miss in week 1, which is respectable, and then beat a nobody. This pick is purely identifying a prime letdown spot, which as we mentioned is a theme for this weekends slate. App State just won their biggest game in 20 years since they upset Michigan. Videos circulated all over twitter of students celebrating in the streets of Boone, NC after the huge upset against Texas A&M.
Now comes the hangover, and sharps know it. App St is getting 75% of the bets, yet the line moved down from -13 to -12.5. Uh oh!
The Pick: Troy +12.5
Georgia Southern @ UAB -11.5 Total 54.5
Copy paste. Georgia Southern handed Scott Frost his termination papers after they beat Nebraska outright in Lincoln. Thanks for doing all of the College Football world a favor! So to follow that impressive win up, how in the hell are the oddsmakers giving them 11.5 points against UAB?! Liberty is no slouch, but they just beat UAB, so it’s not like there’s any positive recency bias either. Double digit favorites against a 2-0 Georgia Southern team after that win? Not falling for that bait, especially considering GASO is getting the majority of the bets, and the line isn’t moving.
The Pick: UAB -11.5
Texas Tech @ NC State -10 Total 55.5
Is NC State the better team here? Yes. But 10 points better, after Tech just took down a ranked Houston team? That’s telling. This is a bigger number than expected, and we think it’s for good reason. Tech has been quite trendy with bettors, and still are this week catching this many points. The betting data shows that they’re getting 75% of the bets, but only 68% of the money. That higher bets/lower dollars signals some liability on NC State, and the line has moved towards the Wolfpack from 9.5 to 10. We are following the move and the sharp money here.
The Pick: NC State -10
Fresno State @ #8 USC -12.5 Total 73.5
USC looks good. Like, real good. There’s hype we fade, and then there’s hype we buy. We were buyers with the Trojans, and they look to be in prime position to make a splash in the potential playoff picture. QB Caleb Williams moved from +800 to +300 to win the Heisman, which is now second behind CJ Stroud. After they steamrolled Stanford, the Trojans return home to play Fresno State, who hasn’t had a great start to the season. The Bulldogs just lost as a short favorite to Oregon State at home 35-32. At first glance, this opening line of 13 already looked a tad low, so it’s not surprising at all to see USC getting almost 90% of the bets. But what really gets our attention is that we are seeing a reverse line move to Fresno St, as the line dropped to 12.5, indicating some sharp money is on the dog here.
The Pick: Fresno State +12.5
JOVANS BEST BET @jovan_deeb
#9 Michigan State @ Washington -3.5 Total 56.5
I have been very impressed with this Huskies team this year. Michael Penix looks great in Kalen DeBoer’s new system, and the weapons of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze have been great in the passing game. Wins over Kent State and Portland State aren’t anything to ride home about, but the team has come together quicker than I anticipated.
On the other side, I haven’t been impressed by Payton Thorne and the Spartans. Thorne hasn’t shown that he can win games for them, as they’ve relied on their physicality and Jalen Berger in the run game to get past Western Michigan and Akron. On paper the Spartans still have the advantage in the trenches, which is such a huge part of their game. That makes it very telling that the Huskies are a 3-point favorite in this game and holding steady with 70%+ of the bets and money on Michigan State.
Penix, DeBoer, and much of the Washington coaching staff are very familiar with the Spartans. I expect a gameplan to get the ball out of Penix’s hands quick on offense and to make Thorne beat them on the other side of the ball. I’m not a PAC-12 believer, but it seems like this could be a spot where they get a statement win.
The Pick: Washington ML (-160)
RECAP:
NFL
Patriots ML (-130)
Packers -10
Rams -9.5
Bucs ML (-145)
Ravens -3 (-120)
Niners -8.5
Commanders +1.5
Titans/Bills UNDER 48
CFB
Nebraska +10.5
Syracuse ML (-125)
Ohio +18.5
Oregon -3.5
Troy +12.5
UAB -11.5
NC State -10
Fresno St +12.5
Washington ML (-160)