NFL Week 2 & College Football Week 3
Overreaction Week
Welcome to one of our favorite weeks of the NFL season: Overreaction Week! The Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals are done. Mac Jones might be good. The Cowboys are winning the Super Bowl. Nothing more fun than watching one week of NFL and speculating on what the next 6 months will look like.
Just remember this is a marathon, not a sprint. The highs are never as high as they first appeared and the lows are never as low.
There are teams that had embarrassing losses that will make the playoffs.
There are teams that looked very good that will miss the playoffs.
We like to buy low and sell high, but it’s not always that easy. We will be selective with our spots this week again.
A quick note on house keeping, as we’ve had a few dozen of you Pledge your Support - and to that we say thank you!
Nothing will change with our picks and write ups that we send out Friday morning to everyone, but throughout the week we’ll send some additional trends or angles that we find interesting to those who paid. Additionally, we will also include some of our favorite NFL and CFB leans, as we respect that some people like to place bets earlier in the week and take advantage of CLV. Please keep in mind that we do not advise anyone to blindly tail our plays. Only take something if you agree and like it as well.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 4-0 (+3.64 Units)
CFB: 6-10 (-5.17 Units)
NFL WEEK 1
Ravens at Bengals -3 Total 46.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
What a brutal start to the schedule for the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s never easy to open up with back-to-back divisional opponents, especially when it’s the AFC North and you’re facing two of the most hyped teams this offseason in the Browns and Ravens. Granted the weather was awful last week in Cleveland, it’s still no excuse for how poorly the Bengals offense looked. Joe Burrow played arguably the worst game of his career going 14/31 and 82 yards. Read that again. Eighty two yards. That’s 2.6 yards per attempt.
The Browns defense does deserve credit under new DC Jim Schwartz, and maybe they’re going to be as good as expected this year. But I never in a million years would have guessed Joe Burrow would throw for less than 100 yards unless he got injured. Maybe he is hurt? I’m no doctor and not going to pretend to guess. All we can do as sports bettors is try our best to get inside the heads of these athletes, and I’m not sure Joe Burrow will be able to sleep much this week. I’d (literally) wager he can’t wait to get back on the field and make people forget about that performance.
As high as people are on the Browns this year, they might be even higher on the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson got paid, and now has a plethora of offensive weapons with OBJ, Zay Flowers and a healthy Rashod Bateman. Baltimore took care of business covering in week 1 against the Texans 25-9, but LJ and the offense didn’t look all that great. I’d lean towards them keeping the playbook tight and looking to open it up more in this matchup.
The spread opened -3.5 and some money has his the Ravens. This is a bit surprising considering they do have some serious injuries with JK Dobbins and Marcus Williams out, and potentially also missing LT Ronnie Stanley, TE Mark Andrews and DB Marlon Humphrey. If you have followed us for a while, you’d know we typically buy bad news. Not this time. I’m not sure enough people are thinking about the Ravens injuries as much as they are focused on how poorly the Bengals looked. Is this the most contrarian play we’ve ever had? Certainly not. But we were fools to fade Joe Burrow as much as we have in the past, and we feel we’d be fools to not back him in their home opener after the worst game of his professional career.
The Pick: Bengals -3 (-120)
Raiders at Bills -8.5 Total 47 (Dino’s Best Bet)
There are a few candidates, but this is my favorite “buy low, sell high” spot for the weekend. Look, we were at the Bills game in NY (NJ) on Monday Night and it was electric. The National Anthem on September, 11th is a memory I’ll get chills thinking about for the rest of my life. Thens shortly after, there was the audible gasp as Jets fans watched their season crash and burn on Rodger achilles. But all of that has nothing to do with this game. Or does it?
Despite us having money on the Bills, and despite it being Zach Wilson - watching that game all we could say to one another was “the Jets deserve to win this”. The Bills were doing everything they could not to lose, instead of going out and winning it. They were gifted an easy win when Rodgers went down, and they decided to wait for it to come to them rather than do something about it.
Now, I’m not going to bash them too hard because the Jets might have the best defense in the NFL. But the Raiders? That’s another story altogether. Outside of Maxx Crosby, the Raider have a terrible defense, and the Bills should look like a much different team.
The Raiders also find themselves coming off a divisional game on the road, and instead of a home opener, they’re flying cross country to Buffalo. Jimmy G is cleared to play. We like the Buffalo defense to step up and the offense to open up the playbook after a complete dud of a performance out the gate.
The last time Josh Allen lost an opener was in 2021 against the Steelers. The next week they went out and massacred the Dolphins 35-0. The Bills certainly have the tendency to drop a game against a strong defense, but thats not the Raiders. It might not be the typical contrarian play, but to start the season we believed in Buffalo magic and we are’t ready to give up on it yet.
The Pick: Bills -8.5 (-105)
Colts at Texans -1.5 Total 39.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
New coaches, rookie qbs, dog shit teams - what a game!
Despite coming up just short, Anthony Richardson looked very promising in his first start for the Colts at home in Jacksonville. CJ Stroud and the Texans? Not so much. Three field goals and a bunch of yawns. But there was at least one positive:
You can be damn sure that this will be a gritty, wacky game and Steak’s all here for it. Stroud was the #2 draft pick, but there has been significantly more hype around #4 Richardson. We find it a bit suspicious that the Texans (a team with 10 wins over the last 3 years) are favored in this spot, especially after they were never really in it against the Ravens last week. Our gut says home field advantage is a bit more pronounced when it’s a rookies first start on the road. We also give the coaching advantage to DeMeco Ryans against fellow newcomer Shane Steichen. In a game that promises to be ugly, we’ll gladly take the defensive minded coach.
The Pick: Texans ML (-115)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Packers at Falcons Under 40.5
We said it last week (even though we didn’t officially take it) but the Falcons defense might be legit. Both of these offenses put up some serious points in their openers, but we see regression coming their way. 40.5 feels low, almost too low. Like a bit of bait, and it’s attracting public and sharp bettors to the over. We’ll be on the side of the house with two offenses who might be getting too much credit, and two defenses who aren’t getting enough.
Side note: there is a major trend towards the NFL season opening with very low scoring. We saw the exact same thing last year, and we certainly aren’t ready to shout out that “the over is due”.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3
I tweeted it out and we sent it to paid subscribers, but this week is all about the “look ahead” spots. You’ve got a gross slate this weekend and a glorious one next weekend with plenty of ranked matchups. We will be looking to hone in on a few.
Penn St at Illinois +14.5
Let’s start with the Nittany Lions. They’ve got #25 Iowa on deck next weekend at home. This weekend they travel to lowly Illinois who just burned lots of contrarian bettors last weekend as they didn’t cover against Kansas. This is the most hyped a Penn State team has been in a long time, and we’re not totally buying it just yet. Normally we’d be concerned with home dog catching this many points as it feels a bit too cushy, but we can’t fathom your average bettor wants to sack up with Illinois here. We will.
The Pick: Illinois +14.5 (-105)
Miss St vs LSU -9.5
Not a look ahead spot, but more of a bounce back for LSU. They came out strong in the 1H against FSU winning 17-14, but it was overall a disappointment as the Tigers turned the ball over twice inside the red-zone. They eventually got embarrassed in that big showdown. Last week they had a nice scrimmage against Grambling where they put up 77 points. Now it’s time to face their first SEC opponent. I think this team is motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouth and show the world they are a legit contender. The Bulldogs are sitting 2-0, but had a huge scare last week at home against Arizona where they needed overtime to win 31-24. Perhaps that was a look ahead spot we failed to take advantage of? Regardless, the Tigers are a much better team, and we think they want to prove it and prove it early. That’s why our approach is to attack the first half.
The Pick: LSU -4.5 1H
Iowa State at Ohio +3.5
This might be our favorite play of the weekend, because we feel it’s one of the grossest. This line absolutely stinks. Iowa St is not very good, but neither is Ohio. However we think there is a real chance Iowa St could be VERY bad. In fact, we’d wager Cyclones HC Matt Campbell won’t last the entire season. ISU just lost to Iowa at home 20-13 meanwhile they only allowed the Hawkeyes to gain 200 yards and 9 first downs. It’s unfathomable that they did not win that game. Morale has to be at an all time low, yet on the other side of the ball, you’ve got Ohio fired up to welcome in a big name opponent (for their standards) from a power 5 conference. This is by far their biggest home game of the season, and we think they show up for it.
The Pick: Ohio +3.5 (-115)
Liberty at Buffalo +3.5
Okay, we lied…perhaps Ohio might not be our grossest play of the weekend. Say hello to 0-2 Buffalo, who just lost outright to Fordham as 22 point favorites. Listen, if you hate this style of handicapping, we don’t blame you. This is just how we are wired and where we tend to find success. Making the uncomfortable plays and putting yourself on the side of the house from time to time. Liberty is 2-0 SU and ATS. Buffalo might be bad, but they did hang with (and covered) Wisconsin in week 1. Perhaps the Buffs were another look ahead candidate last week that we missed? No time to dwell on the past - we have to capitalize on the future.
The Pick: Buffalo +3.5 (-110)
BYU at Arkansas -8.5
This is what we call the perfect storm. Not only do we have a look ahead spot with Arkansas facing #14 LSU next week, but we’ve also got…REVENGE! Arkansas played BYU last year and scored at will, winning 52-35 in Mormonville. So far this season BYU has yet to play a real opponent, nor have they impressed. We can’t confidently say anything about this team just yet, but we love the spot. Unfortunately we must also mention that we are late to the party. It appears the line opened Arkansas -11.5 and sharp money has already hammered BYU. We don’t care, as we’re comfortable with the 8.5 and even taking a small shot on the ML.
The Pick: BYU +8.5 (-115)
Georgia Tech at Ole Miss -18.5
Let’s keep the look ahead train rolling! Ole Miss has looked great thus far and returning home after beating and covering at #24 Tulane. Next week they travel to Alabama for their first SEC game of the year. Needless to say, this is just a terrible spot for the Rebels as Georgia Tech is sandwiched in between two ranked opponents. Tech has looked fairly decent this year. They’ve got Haynes King starting at QB, who’s a transfer from Texas A&M. We’re not a fan, but it looks like he’s out to prove us wrong, as he’s off to a nice season with 7 TD’s and 1 INT. Georgia Tech is 1-1 on the year but played Louisville very well in their opener. We like the Jackets to get overlooked by their opponent, and a QB who’s used to an SEC atmosphere.
The Pick: Georgia Tech +18.5 (-115)
Wyoming at Texas -29.5 Total 49.5
And last but not least, we introduce you to the “letdown” spot. Texas just shocked the world upsetting Alabama on the road as 7 point underdogs. We faded Texas on their season win total, and so far it ain’t looking good. The Longhorn defense appears to be legit, and Quinn Ewers might actually be good. Time will tell. We’d have to imagine they partied like rockstars all week after one of their biggest wins in years, and now play Wyoming before traveling to Baylor next week. See the theme? These picks are what we mainly feel are just really bad scheduling spots for the “better team”, and we don’t expect them to play their best football. Yet, we aren’t going to play the dog here, but rather go with the under. We’re not expecting Wyoming to pull off anymore surprises after coming back to beat Texas Tech in week 1, but we do think the Texas offense may sleepwalk and the defense stymies the Cowboys offense.
The Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Bengals -3 (-120) (Degen’s Best Bet)
Bills -8.5 (-105) (Dino’s Best Bet)
Texans ML (-115) (Steak’s Best Bet)
Packers/Falcon UNDER 40.5 (-115)
CFB
Illinois +14.5 (-110)
LSU 1H -4.5 (-115)
Ohio +3.5 (-11.5)
Buffalo +3.5 (-110)
BYU +8.5 (-115)
Georgia Tech +18.5 (-115)
Wyoming/Texas UNDER 49.5 (-110)