NFL WEEK 3
(Current record: 13-5 YTD)
Wild start to the NFL season. Hopefully you’ve been tailing us, or at the very least not fading. Your boys came out of the gate red hot!
Current Records: NFL 13-5; CFB 10-5
Underdogs are feasting, going 21-11 through the first 32 games. So what’s next? Does the chaos continue, or do things start to even out? Our bet this week is on the latter. One of the trickiest things about gambling is there is no set-in-stone methodology that works week over week. Obviously we here at the Degen usually take a contrarian approach, but throughout the season there are weeks where being Jonny Go Public pays big. We plan to pick our spots this week and lean into a few favorites, simply because of the carnage we’ve seen thus far.
A taste of Humble Pie - Buccaneers @ Rams - 1 Total 55.5
Tampa Bay is unstoppable. Somehow Gronk and Brady are reverse ageing and it’s 2014 again. The Bucs have won 10 straight and scored 30+ in 9 straight. They’re the returning champs who didn’t lose a single starter on either side of the ball, and they’re looking better than they did in 2020. Head and shoulders above the field and the hottest team in football. And yet… they opened as underdogs this weekend?? Can’t you already see the “Wrong team favored” pregame analysis and tweets? Vegas is not in the business of giving away money. The egos in Tampa are getting a bit too big and Brady has been around the block long enough to know a humbling loss in September pays its weight in gold come December. Despite the top offenses, these teams are due for a defensive battle.
The Pick: Rams ML - Greg’s Best Bet
Contrarian play of the week - Cardinals @ Jaguars +7.5 Total 52
Kyler Murray = little guy, big problem. Whether you agree or not, your first thought is probably “yea, he can run”. Sure…but he’s not. Kyler has only rushed 10 times for 50 yards. He’s apparently going all in on being QB first/RB second, as he’s currently second in the NFL in passing yards (689) and TD’s (7). The betting public are forming like a conga line at a wedding to keep riding the 2-0 Cardinals as they head to Jacksonville. Looks tempting, doesn’t it? Don’t bite that apple Adam! It’s time to be Contrarian the Barbarian here. Urban Meyer is just a few losses away from checking his daughters softball schedule to see when he should push the eject button. But we can promise you this - the Jags are absolutely going to ruin some parlays and survivor pools before that happens. Trevor Lawrence leads the league in throwing uncatchable passes. There’s really nothing to get you excited about backing the Jags here, and that’s exactly why you should do it. You’re going to love pounding your chest as the Jags (0-2 ATS) shock the world and get their first cover of the season.
The Pick: Jaguars +8 (buy .5) - Brandon’s Best Bet
Flying too close to the sun - Dolphins @ Raiders -4.5 Total 45.5
How bout them Raiders?! Gruden and the boys are riding high after winning 2 games most had chalked up as losses when the schedules were released. Derek Carr is looking more than just competent as the NFL’s passing yard leader, and this Maxx Crosby fella has the defense playing well above their talent level. Have they overachieved, or are the Raiders actually good? Time will tell. But just when you think it’s safe to back Chucky, he’s going to stab you right in the fucking eye. Gruden is so ready to poop his pants against Jacoby and the boys on Sunday. The Dolphins just got shutout at home, and Tua is out. Guess what? It doesn’t matter. This is not about Miami. Everyone will take one look at this match-up and immediately count the Raiders at 3-0. Literally any team in the NFL could be walking into Allegiant Stadium this weekend and we would still be fading the Raiders.
The Pick: Dolphins +4.5
Awaken a sleeping giant - Chargers @ Chiefs -6.5 Total 55.5
Do you hear that? Shhh... It’s the sound of everyone talking about the fact that the Chiefs are one of the worst teams against the spread over the last year and a half. Good teams win, great teams cover. Are the Chiefs really great if they can’t cover? We might be a week or two early on this spot, but we think they’re about to get the defense under control and go on a run of absolutely demolishing opponents. Herbert made a name for himself about one year ago to the date when he prison shanked Tyrod’s lung, started his first game and took the Chiefs to overtime. The young phenom hasn’t looked back since. The Chiefs have struggled out of the gate (0-2 ATS), almost losing to the Browns and then losing to the Ravens in a Sunday night thriller. Vegas puts them just shy of a touchdown, which is a pretty fair number at home. But after struggling against divisional opponents last year (4-2 overall and 1-5 ATS) you can bet fat Andy did his homework in the off-season to make sure they have a better performance this year. Might be a bit of a chalk play, but chalk is due.
The Pick: Chiefs -6 (buy .5)
Don’t bite the apple, Eve - Packers @ 49ers -3.5 Total 50
“The Pack is back! The Last Dance begins! Rodger slams critics!”. The Packers week 1 performance was so bad that a Monday Night win at home over the rebuilding Lions feels like a Playoff win. Next up the Packers travel to SF for a huge game. Typically, we would love to fade the Niners in this spot as they are returning home after a two week road trip. But not here, not now, and not on a Sunday night showdown against a team that embarrassed them last year. We expect the 49ers to remain unbeaten. Look for the Shanahan special: Dink and dunk with an extra splash of run, run, run. Possess the ball and keep Aaron off the field. San Francisco’s offense has been very mediocre to date, and Sunday night Primetime would be a lovely spot to bring in Trey Lance for a few fireworks.
The Pick: 49ers ML
Public Parlay - Ravens -9 @ Lions /// Bills -8 vs WFT
Egg on our face (mainly Greg) for fading this Bills team last week. Sure Tua got hurt early, but this game was over in the first 10 minutes. Buffalo took a much more balanced approach on offense, forced a handful of turnovers, and got six sacks en route to a 35-0 blowout. The Bills have only allowed one offensive TD this year. Granted they went against Big Ben and Briskett, Taylor Heinicke isn’t the guy to get nervous for. WFT looks to continue the momentum of a gritty Thursday Night win over the Giants into Buffalo. So with both these teams coming off big divisional wins, whats next? Heinicke is due to lay an egg and Mafia continues to roll. Let’s ignore the points on this one and get a little greedy. Balty held on to beat the Chiefs despite spotting them a quick pick 6 on Sunday night. Detroit is coming off a short week and have kept things close enough to hit or threaten the back door. Dan Campbell is about to get his fist true whistle to whistle ass kicking.
The Pick: Ravens/Bills ML Parlay (-200)
Heartbreak Hotel - Seahawks @ Vikings +2 Total 55.5
What an absolute kick in the dick both of these teams experienced last week. The Seahawks were 52-0 in games they led by 15+ points at home under Pete Carroll. The Vikings…well that’s just more of the same from this team. They have a PhD in heartbreaking losses. So which team fights through adversity and has a bounce back win? The public is probably going to go with Russ rather than the home dog. Can we fault them? No. However, we do not agree. The Vikings season is far from over. They’re going to be a team that plays down and up to their competition. The Seahawks defense held Derek Henry to 13 carries 35 yards in the 1H last week, but then got destroyed in the 2H. They’re beat up and worn down. The last thing this team needs is to try and tackle Dalvin Cook. We like the Vikings to get Kirkalicious with a shot in the arm from the home crowd. Mike Zimmers seat is like cooking rice - started with a boil, but now it’s going to a simmer.
The Pick: Vikings +2
The Bookies Pick
We don’t love it, we don’t hate it. It’s our Bookies Pick of the Week!
The Pick: Texans +8 (buy .5)
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Bucs Rams 55.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4
(Current record: 10-5 YTD)
(3-0) Wake Forest @ (2-1) Virginia -4 Total 68.5
Is the wrong team favored here? Sure Virginia had a nice win against Illinois two weeks ago, but they just got whooped at UNC. Meanwhile Wake has taken care of business and beat up FSU. First road game for the Deacons, and we expect them to have some trouble.
The Pick: Virgina ML -185
(3-0) #10 Notre Dame vs (1-1) #15 Wisconsin -6 Total 46
If you followed us on Twitter, you would’ve seen that Purdue (+7 @ ND) last week was the “fake sharp” ML play of the day. Just when everyone collectively agrees that ND might not be that good is when you want to bet on them. However, we are jumping off the Irish ship mighty quickly and going with the Badgers here. This is simply too many points on a neutral field. Jack Coan looks to face his former team at Soldier Field, and we like the Badgers defense to make him regret leaving Madison.
The Pick: Wisconsin ML -255
(1-2) Boise St @ (3-0) Utah St +9 Total 69.5
Boise is probably the best 1-2 team in the country, and Vegas knows it. You aren’t getting them at a cheap price despite being on the road against an undefeated opponent. They had a tough loss in week 1 at UCF, and then a one point loss last week against OK State. Look for them to come out for blood in this one. The total is high, which probably means Boise is going to put up a 50 burger.
The Pick: Boise St -9
(3-0) #2 Georgia @ (1-2) Vanderbilt +35 Total 52.5
Are you thinking what we’re thinking? This is not enough points for the #2 team in the country. Vandy just got manhandled at home by Stanford, and lost their starting RB for the season. We expect the bulldogs to sleepwalk through this one, and the home dog to cover.
The Pick: Vanderbilt +35
(2-1) Louisville @ (0-3) FSU +2.5 Total 62
A bit perplexed and unsure of what to think here. Similar to our Cincy pick last week, this line is so fucking low…but is it TOO low? This is either the trap of the season, or the Ole Trap Trap of the season. Unlike last week, we are going with this being a trap, and backing FSU who may just be worse than Kansas.
The Pick: FSU +3 (buy .5)