NFL Week 3 & College Football Week 4
Every Divisional Dog Has His Day
Another strong weekend. Remember: we don’t get too high or too low. Lotta season left.
In Week 2, we tried to navigate the prime “overreaction” spots, and did so fairly well. If not for a backdoor by the Falcons and an all-time choke job by the Ravens, we would’ve had ourselves a nice 6-1 days in the NFL. Onward!
Now, we approach one of the most successful systems in the NFL: backing divisional underdogs. Last season, divisional dogs went 22-8 ATS. A smarter/more disciplined bettor might just blindly tail this, but that’s just not who we are. As contrarian first bettors, we like to pick our spots, and will be both backing and fading some this week.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 12-4-1 (+6.28 Units)
CFB: 13-6 (+5.43 Units)
NFL WEEK 3
Packers @ Bucs -1.5 Total 42 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Aaron Rodgers has had a tough time playing in Florida. Last season, the Packers opener was against the Saints in a game that had to be played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Packers lost 38-3 and Rodgers finished 15/28 133 yards and 2 INT’s. In 2020, Rodgers lost to the Bucs in Tampa where he threw 2 INT’s. This is Rodgers’ stat line in his last two games in Florida:
31/63 293 Yards/ 0 TD’s/ 4 INT’s…ROUGH! You’d think he’d be a little more familiar with the humidity after all those anal cleanses in Mexico during the offseason, but evidently that is not the case.
The Bucs haven’t looked great, but they haven’t looked bad. The offense is chugging along and managing to do just enough to win games, but it’s really the defense that’s stood out. A Todd Bowles masterclass only allowed 3 points on the road in Dallas, and then dominated Jamies in New Orleans. If there is an edge to give in this matchup, it’s gotta be the Bucs D > Packers D.
Both offenses are banged up, but the Packers don’t even have many weapons to begin with. Even after their Week 2 win at home against the Bears, this team is not “sexy” in the eye of the public. Brady is still Brady, the Bucs D looks good, and ARod stinks in Florida - all this makes sense as to why Tampa is getting 60% of the bets. The problem for Tampa? This line opened -2.5 and is down to -1. You could say this is due to Mike Evans being suspended, but even before that was announced, the money has been trickling in on GB. Unfortunately, we think Rodgers gets the last laugh between these two great QB’s.
The Pick: Packers +1.5
Chiefs @ Colts +5.5 Total 50.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Another year, another new QB, and yet another disastrous start to the season for the Indianapolis Colts. Winless in the first two games is a problem, and it would appear as though things are about to get a lot worse with the Chiefs coming to town. Maybe passing on Carson Wentz and going with Matt Ryan wasn’t the upgrade everyone thought it would be…
Of course Matt Ryan has struggled, but the problem is much bigger than that. If this defense made Davis Mills and Trevor Lawerence look like Pro Bowlers, what is Patrick Mahomes gonna do?
The line movement on this one is where things get very very interesting. No one in their right mind would think the Colts stand a chance, and yet the line is moving in their favor. As high as +7 early in the week, it ticked down to +6.5, and now sits at +5.5 after news that Pittman Jr might be good to go. This should absolutely raise some eyebrows, especially when you realize the Chiefs are getting 93% of the bets and 92% of the money. When a line looks too easy - there’s a reason for it, and we’re trusting whatever sharp group in Vegas is moving this one. It sucks that we’re late to the party and missing the best number, but this one is so nasty that it’s still worth attending.
Another item worth noting is the under in this game is seeing sharp action as well, which is always a sign we like when betting on an underdog. Somehow, someway, the Colts get it done. That’s just how sports betting works.
The Pick: Colts +5.5
Eagles @ Commanders +6.5 Total 47.5
Jalen Hurts is going to be a problem. No one has seen their odds to win MVP improve more than the 3rd year QB. Philly is firing on all cylinders - looking significantly bigger, faster, and much stronger than their opponents thus far. Enter: the Washington Commanders. Hot knife meet butter.
Despite his impressive stat line, there isn’t much to like about Carson Wentz. Just looking at his face makes you feel uncomfortable having any amount of money on him. He looks like Buddy the Elf but if the movie was based on Leprechaun’s.
But if you know one thing about us at the Degenerate, it’s that there’s nothing we love more than selling high and buying low. The Eagles just razzle dazzled the Vikings in Primetime and the Commanders got beat up by the lowly Lions. As much as everyone loves to talk about “divisional home dogs” we aren’t hearing any chatter about Washington in this spot. So join us, won’t you? On the wonderful roller coaster ride that is gambling on Carson Wentz.
The Bet: Commanders +7 (buy the hook)
Saints @ Panthers +2.5 Total 40.5
Carolina Head Coach Matt Rhule’s days are numbered. Coming into the season as a heavy favorite to be first coach fired and now sitting at 0-2 with CMC showing his first signs of breaking down.
For us this is a textbook divisional home underdog play. The Panthers were supposed to be one of the worst teams this year, and they’re playing the role. The Saints on the other hand were getting some hype from public bettors, and that’s what makes this line stick out. Spotting this at less than a field goal has 72% of the public backing New Orleans, yet the line hasn’t moved. This is called a “line-freeze” and always catches our attention.
Carolina has hung tough in both their games thus far, but came out on the losing side. No one’s expecting them to make any noise here, which is why we love ‘em.
The Bet: Panthers +3 (Buy the hook)
Texans @ Bears -3 Total 40
The bottom of the barrel. The two worst rosters in the NFL. Two sewer rats battling over a morsel of cheese. Everyone will forget about this game until discussions about NFL Draft order begin. This is what football is all about!
Justin Fields is miraculously ranked 33rd in pass attempts through the first two weeks, with a total of 28. Why is that funny? Because there are 32 starting QB’s. At some point the Bears are going to have to take the training wheels off and see what this guy can really do. Their slip and slide victory in week 1 feels like ages ago after the Packers ran right over them on Sunday Night.
Let us be crystal clear – there is not much to like about either team here – which is why this total is catching our eye. The Texans just scored 3 field goals, and Justin Fields just went 7/11 70 yards passing on Primetime, and yet this total is on the rise? Opened 39 with 63% of the bets on the under, which makes sense, but all the money is on the over. Hmmm…that’s tasty.
The Pick: OVER 40
Lions @ Vikings -5.5 Total 53.5
The top three scoring offenses in the NFL through two weeks have been the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Detroit Lions. Printing Touchdowns like Janet Yellen. Amon St. Brown is working his way into a fantasy favorite and the Lions are picking up where they left off last year as an ATS juggernaut.
And then you have Kirk Cousins. Yay! MedioKirk threw 3 picks and looked like a lost puppy on Monday Night. Worse yet, the Vikings defense played just as poorly, letting Jalen Hurts run wild.
Now the Vikings enter as heavy favorites against a divisional opponent and America’s underdog. Nobody wants the Vikings with this many points. How could you? Well for starters, Minnesota’s new stadium is quickly becoming one of the most difficult places to play. Through some impressive technical engineering shit we can’t really explain, the roof of their dome is designed to amplify the crowd noise and reverberate it back down on the field of play. Neat!
With all the trends about divisional underdogs, you can be damn sure everyone is going to be holding a Lions +5.5 ticket. They might even get cute with the ML +210. This is a div dog that we are fading, because we think it’s just “too obvious” after how bad Kirk looked in Primetime.
It’s hard to find a more trendy underdog this weekend than the Detroit Lions. Don’t take the bait.
The Bet: Vikings -5.5
Falcons @ Seahawks +1 Total 41.5
Option 1: Pretend this game doesn’t even exist, like a normal person.
Option 2: Recognize that everyone has already written off Geno Smith (again), the Falcons are trendy underdogs, and that winning money on ugly games is just as much fun as the pretty ones.
It’s Week 3 - cherish every moment! The Seahawks still have a respectable defense and this stadium is going to be fired up. Falcons are 2-0 ATS this year, and the public knows it. Now it should be noted this line opened ATL +2.5 and has been hammered by both the public and sharps down to +1. We don’t always go against line moves, but we have a feeling that after back-door’ing in LA, the Falcons might be “fake sharp”.
We’re getting a sneaky suspicion that this might be the beginning of the end for Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, and we’ll be keeping an eye out to fade accordingly going forward.
The Bet: Seahawks ML -115
Bookie Pick of the Week: Good news vs Bad news. The Broncos can’t score in the Red Zone, and Nathaniel Hackett is (rightfully so) already on the hot seat. And then with SF, it’s addition by subtraction with Jimmy G coming in after the Trey Lance injury, and now the talk of the town is the “better QB” is under center.
Our bookie knows a thing or two about high altitude. Broncos country… Let’s Ride!
The Bet: Broncos +1.5
**TBD LATE ADD** Cowboys @ Giants -1 Total 39
This is not an official play at the moment, because it’s determined strictly off any late buyback on the Gmen. Even with Cooper Rush at QB, the opener of Giants -3 seemed a little high to us, and we’re having Deja Vu of the past MNF game with the Vikings and Eagles. Philly opened -3, and Minnesota was quickly hit with money, bringing the line down to -1.5. Before kickoff, late steam hit Philly closing the number back to the opener at -3. If this happens with NYG, then we will be officially adding. Follow us on twitter to stay updated.
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Rams @ Cardinals Total 48.5 - The Cardinals are the sharp side, but we don’t have the stones to take them just yet. Simply because the Rams are still 0-2 ATS, and we feel they may not be as public as the data shows. The real contrarian play in our opinion is this under. The total opened at 51, with the he over getting 64% of the bets, but the smart money is all over the under taking in 63% of the handle.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4
Maryland @ #4 Michigan -17 Total 64.5
Surprise surprise, Michigan gets another home game! What an absolute joke of a schedule for the Wolverines. Is this even fun for their students or fans? Starting the year at home against Colorado State, Hawaii and then UConn. Pathetic. Michigan hasn’t scored less than 50 points after these 3 scrimmages, but now they finally find themselves less than 30 points favorites against what appears to be a fairly decent 3-0 Maryland team. What catches our eye here is that the spread opened 17, and hasn’t moved all week, despite Maryland only getting 8% of the handle (!!!). Let’s hope the Terps can trade blows with Michigan and make them sweat a little.
The Pick: Maryland +17
Missouri @ Auburn -7.5 Total 51.5
We made the mistake of adding Auburn to our card late last weekend against Penn State. All we had heard from Auburn fans was that this is one of the worst teams they have ever seen. Unfortunately, they were right. So why are we going back to them again? Because after that 41-12 home loss to the Nittany Lions, this team shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone, let alone an SEC opponent. Sure, Missouri is nothing impressive, but they don’t appear to be a total joke either. Auburn is real bad, and real bad teams shouldn’t get this much respect…unless there’s a reason. In the Vegas algorithms we trust!
The Pick: Auburn -7.5
#5 Clemson @ #16 Wake Forest +7.5 Total 55.5
This bet is a little uncharacteristic for us, in the sense that we are backing the “better” team who also seems to be fairly public. Depending on where you look, Clemson is getting anywhere from 55% to 70% of the bets. We are throwing the data right out of the window. What we are going off of here is the fact that nobody thinks this Clemson team is really THAT good yet. On the flip side, Wake Forest is a sneaky public darling with the return of Sam Hartman, and we think bettors will get cute with the home dog here. If you take out the 3 points for home field, the oddsmakers are saying Clemson is a 10 point favorite against a 3-0 top 20 Wake Forest team on a neutral site. That’s higher than we would’ve expected, so we must act accordingly.
The Pick: Clemson -6.5 (-125 — Buy 1 point)
#22 Florida @ #12 Tennessee -10.5 Total 62.5
If you read our season previews, you’d know we are high on this Vols team and have their over 7.5 season win total. Even after an OT scare in Pitt, we still think they’re dangerous, and this spread seems to be quite telling. We have a feeling the Florida Gators are a lot worse than their 2-1 record indicates. Beating Utah in week 1 was impressive, no doubt about that. Since then, they’ve lost outright to Kentucky at home as a 6 point favorite, and then barely escaped with a W against USF as a 24 point favorite. QB Anthony Richardson has ZERO TD passes on the year, but hey, he’s got 3 tackles (and 4 INT’s)! The Gators are a trendy dog here, and what do we do with trendy dogs? “Fade them” Bingo!
The Pick: Tennessee -10 (-120 — Buy .5 point)
Indiana @ Cincinnati -16.5 Total 57.5
Here’s all you need to know about this one: neither team is ranked, but Indiana is 3-0 and a double digit road dog. This seems like a lot of points, right? Cincinnati opened -14, and with the bets being fairly even, the Bearcats are seeing all the money. They’ve been bet up to -16.5. Not only that, but the total is up from 54 to 57.5. We love a big home favorite in a game that’s expected to be high scoring.
The Pick: Cincinnati -16.5
Toledo @ San Diego St +2.5 Total 45.5
This one is nasty, but comes down to a very simple line read that’s right up our alley. Toledo just played in a game that saw almost 100 points get scored. Ohio State passed all over them with a final score of 77-21. Meanwhile SDU’s defense hasn’t allowed less than 35 points all season. Now we’ve got an opening total of 46.5, with the over getting 83% of the bets, yet the line moved down a point. Why is that? Because the under is seeing 54% of the handle. So lower tickets, yet higher dollars on the under in a matchup of two teams with atrocious defenses. This tells us sharps know these offenses are too incompetent to take advantage, so we will gladly follow this reverse line move.
The Pick: Under 45.5
Arizona @ Cal -3.5 Total 50.5
Similar, yet different. With Cals defense being one of the best in the Pac-12 recently, you don’t think of points in this type of matchup. So there’s no surprise the under is getting 57% of the bets. What is surprising is that the total opened 48, and is now up to 50.5. This is because all the money (71%) is on the over. Someone knows something, and we want to be on the side of that someone.
The Pick: OVER 50.5
#10 Arkansas @ #20 Texas A&M -2.5 Total 48.5
It pains us to go back to College Station and back the Aggies after these weird ass pep rally videos keep emerging, but we are left with no choice. A&M covered the -5.5 last weekend against Miami, but they certainly didn’t seem like the better team. Miami out-gained them and had more time of possession. Arkansas has looked good early, taking care of Cincinnati and South Carolina at home. Although they had a bit of a scare against Missouri State, we’ll chalk that up to being a prime look ahead spot in preparation for this game. The tickets seem to be split, yet the line opened A&M -1.5 and is now up to -2.5. This signals sharp money hitting the Aggies, and we are following.
The Pick: Texans A&M ML (-125)
#14 Utah @ Arizona State +15.5 Total 53.5
Just because Nebraska didn’t come through for us last week does NOT mean we abandon our system play! In case you haven’t heard, Arizona State just fired Herm Edwards, which was a puzzling hire to begin with.
Does it concern us that Utah opened -14 and has been bet up to -15.5? A little. But Nebraska was sharp as a tac last weekend and that didn’t work out, so we aren’t overthinking this one. Stick to your systems.
The Pick: Arizona St +15.5
JOVANS BEST BET @jovan_deeb
#17 Baylor @ Iowa State -2.5 Total 45.5
This spot seems very similar to what I liked with Washington last week against Michigan State. An unranked Iowa State team getting 2.5 points at home against 17th ranked Baylor. Just like Michigan State, I’m very low on this Baylor team, especially with Blake Shapen running this offense. Vegas seems to agree not just with the line of this game but with their preseason win total being 7.5 coming off of a Big 12 championship last year. Shapen’s below average QB play has forced Baylor to try and run almost a Big Ten-style run-first, pass only if you have to offense. The problem: they don’t have the personnel to run that offense effectively.
I expect Iowa State’s very solid front 7 to stop the run game and make this game one that Shapen has to win with his arm. And if the fate of Baylor relies on Shapen in the passing game where he will most likely be seeing a constant stream of pressure, I’ll take my chances with Iowa State. Their game against Iowa has provided them with a similar blueprint they’ll have to employ against this Baylor team who is much weaker on the interior than the Hawkeyes. Iowa St’s defense should be able to force Shapen into mistakes and the offense can do enough to pull out a win in Ames.
The Pick: Iowa State ML -135
RECAP:
NFL
Packers +1.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Colts +5.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Commanders +6.5
Panthers +2.5
Texans/Bears OVER 40
Vikings -5.5
Seahawks ML (-115)
Broncos +1.5 (Bookie Pick of the Week)
*Giants ML (if late buyback from -1 before kickoff)*
CFB
Maryland +17
Auburn -7.5
Clemson -6.5 (-125 buy 1 point)
Tennessee -10 (-120 buy .5 point)
Cincinnati -16.5
Toledo/SDSU UNDER 45.5
Arizona/Cal OVER 50.5
Texas A&M ML (-125)
Arizona State +14.5
Iowa St ML (-135 — Jovans Best Bet)