NFL Week 3 & College Football Week 4
Contender or Pretender
What goes up must come down. After a 4-0 start to the NFL season, we followed it up with a 1-3 performance. Piss! Didn’t love last weeks slate, and we aren’t going to sit here and tell you we absolutely love the card this week either. It’s a tough one.
Week 3 is the ultimate contender or pretender spot. A handful of 0-2 teams will be playing with absolute desperation to return to relevance, and some unexpected 2-0 teams have an argument to make that they are for real. From our perspective this is one of the final “dipping your toes in the water” type weeks of the season before we jump in, take some bigger swings and a higher volume of plays.
The polaroid picture that is the NFL season is taken in week 1. Week 2 you shake it. Now, in week 3 we get to see it start to develop. Leggo…
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 5-3 (+1.59 Units)
CFB: 10-13 (-4.65 Units)
NFL WEEK 3
Bears at Chiefs -12.5 Total 48 (Degen’s Best Bet)
As founder and CEO of The Degenerate, let me be the first to say “I’m sorry”. I’m sorry that 2/3 of our best bets this weekend involve the Chicago Bears (spoiler alert: Steak is on em). It’s not how we wanted to spend our Sunday, but we can’t fight the feeling. What kind of contrarians would we be if we weren’t buying so much bad news this early in the season? We’ll touch more on that in Steaks write up. He’s got his eyes on the spread, but I’ve got my eyes on the total.
Let’s first talk about the Chiefs. So far this season, this offense hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard. In their home opener against the Lions they put up a measly 20 points. Granted this was without Travis Kelce, but he returned in week 2 against a lowly Jags defense, and they were only able to score 17 points. If I would’ve told you the Chiefs were unable to put up 3 touchdowns against the Lions and Jags to start the season, what odds would you have given me? After a gritty win in Jacksonville, I think the Chiefs return home to give their fans the offensive performance they deserve. And who better to do it against than a banged up Bears defense.
Of course with playing a game total, it takes two to tango. I don’t expect the Chiefs to get there themselves. You might not feel very comfortable relying on the Bears offense scoring points…but I do.
Justin Fields has not looked good. He made comments during the off-season that he wanted to run less and pass more. So far that experiment is not off to a great start. Fields is completing 60% of his passes for 213 yards per game, but only has 2 TD’s with 3 INT’s. Rushing wise he’s only averaging 31 yards per game, but what’s most shocking is that the longest carry he’s had in the first two games is 10 yards. This is a guy who set records last season and would bust 60+ yarders with ease. In sports betting, we like to buy low and sell high. The Bears stock could not be any lower, and Fields stock is plummeting as well. We’re scooping some shares and hoping to time the market with a vintage Fields performance.
The Pick: Over 48 (-110)
Colts at Ravens -7.5 Total 45.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Let’s take a moment to talk about the NFL schedule shall we? There is a set formula. Play your division mates twice, a division from the AFC, one from the NFC, and a couple-a-three play in games based on teams with similar standings from the previous season. It’s incredibly transparent and extremely fair in terms of opponents. What isn’t fair and certainly isn’t transparent is WHEN you play these games.
In doing my pre-season research two teams stuck out as getting dealt incredibly difficult scheduling for a chunk of the season. One of them being the Baltimore Ravens, the other being the Jacksonville Jaguars (but we’ll talk about them another time).
Not only do the Ravens play three of divisional games in four weeks, they play three divisional games in four weeks on the road! Let’s break it down:
Week 2 at Bengals
Week 3 Colts
Week 4 at Browns
Week 5 at Steelers
Week 6 Titans (London)
Week 7 Lions
If you want to buy the Ravens to make some postseason noise, my only advice is wait, because the next month of their schedule is going to be grueling and they’re bound to drop a game (or two) as a result.
This game does’t have much to do with Colts for me. Regardless of Anthony Richardson (concussion) or Gardner Minshew I do like their chances. It’s more about the Ravens coming out hot (2-0 ATS), beating their divisional rival/getting revenge on the Bengals (eliminated them from the playoff last year), and games in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and London on deck. New system play, let’s see how it unfolds.
The Pick: Colts +7.5 (+100)
Bears at Chiefs -12.5 Total (Steak’s Best Bet)
By the way Steak bets you would think he took Maggie Gyllenhaal to Prom. The man loves ugly. Unlike real life, the gambling world tends to pay off when you get nasty, and the Bears are certainly the worst looking team this season.
This week you had Justin Fields blame his coaches during his press conference for his lackluster start:
Then you have the Bears Defensive Coordinator resign and his house being raided. It sounds like theres a lot more to this story, so we’ll just wait and see how it unfolds. Bad news is compounding in Chicago. This is the biggest spread of the season to date, and it still feels short. Over 70% of the bets and the money are on the Chiefs. Fields is done trying to evolve - he’s now trying to survive. Look for him to go vintage run first/backyard football mode to keep this one entertaining.
Fun fact you are sure to hear at least twice during this game: the Bears passed on Patrick Mahomes to draft Mitch Trubisky in 2017. Sorry Bears fans, but maybe a cover can help ease your pain, if only for a moment.
The Pick: Bears +12.5 (-105)
Panthers at Seahawks +6 Total 42
The 0-2 Panthers travel across the country to Seattle, and the Seahawks return home after a huge win in Detroit. We’ve had a pretty good read of the Seahawks this year, and it basically boils down to this: Geno plays worse with expectations, but write him off and he’ll burn you.
#1 pick Bryce Young hasn’t shown anything to be excited about and it sounds like he’ll be out this week with and ankle injury. Andy Dalton steps up to lead the charge and absolutely no one in Vegas gives a damn.
The line held steady at Panthers +6 through the injury news which means one thing to us…it’s all about the Panthers defense. Despite a few key injuries, they’ve still shown up and kept them in the game while the offense does absolutely nothing. Dalton isn’t anything special, but he’s an upgrade to the rookie at this point in their careers. We were on the Panthers before the news of Bryce Young’s injury broke, and we aren’t about to change our tune.
The Pick: Panthers +6 (-110)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Bills at Commanders Under 43.5 (-110)
We got the Bills coming off a 38 point effort and the Commanders put up 35. Both of these coaches like to play conservative and try to establish the run. We’ve already seen this total move down a full point (likely weather related). What really caught our eye was this one opening under 45 (a key number for totals). We see a bit of a scrappy game here and the line of Bills -6.5 makes us think the Commanders keep it close and limit Josh Allen and the big plays.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4
Last week was all about the “look-ahead”, this week is all about the “letdown”.
Auburn at Texas A&M -8.5
When you glance at the board, there are always those lines that look too high. Your professional bettor might say that’s too many points, and see value with the dog. Unfortunately, that’s just not how our brains work. We believe the line is telling, and trust the oddsmakers algorithms far more than our dumb brains. The Aggies are 2-1 with an embarrassing loss to Miami. I don’t know if they’re a good team just yet, but I do think they’re better than what they showed against the Hurricanes. This feels similar to LSU - a pathetic performance against an out of conference opponent, then have a get right game against a nobody, and now they’re ready to prove to their fans that they aren’t total shit against their first SEC opponent. We we’re on LSU 1H last week against Miss St for this same exact reason, and we will try it again with the Aggies at home against a 3-0 Auburn team who we feel isn’t all that great. Prove it and prove it early.
The Pick: Texas A&M 1H -4 (-120)
Boston College at Louisville -13.5
The theme for this weekend is identifying the “letdown” spot. You can say that only applies to teams that won, but sometimes we make exceptions for teams that played their Super Bowl and came up just short. Shame on us for being soft and not wanting to fade FSU. That was the ultimate look ahead spot, but we were still scarred from that week 1 LSU bet and respected the Noles. BC gave them hell and Florida State barely escaped with a 31-29 win. It’s going to be tough for Boston College to get up the following week on the road against a fast paced Louisville offense.
The Pick: Louisville -13.5 (-120)
BYU at Kansas -9.5 Total 54.5
The reasoning for this pick is sort of a combination between Texas A&M and L’Ville. The line looks WAY too high, and BYU feels like they’re also in a bit of a letdown spot. We had them as one of our favorite underdogs last weekend, and Arkansas was in a look ahead situation with LSU up next. BYU rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to win outright, 38-31. We say thank you for your service Mormons, but now, we must fade. Admittedly, this line did get a bit out of hand, as it opened -7. But I can assure you this is not “chasing steam”. I would be on Kansas regardless of the move, and still like them to win by double digits. My one and only concern is that there does seem to be some weather concerns. I feel like that may slightly favor BYU, as it could slow down Jaylen Daniels and this Kansas offense. Nevertheless, we are going to put our heads down and ride with the Jayhawks.
The Pick: Kansas -9 (-115)
Central Michigan at South Alabama -16.5
Can’t say I particularly love going against a line move, and that’s exactly what happened just before writing this newsletter. CMU was sitting around 14/14.5 most of the week until USA just got hit with some money. We’re not targeting the Chippewas here as much as we are fading South Alabama. The reason? Letdown. USA just beat Oklahoma St outright as a 7 point dog. Not to mention, there’s also a bit of revenge involved, as CMU lost this matchup 38-24 last year.
The Pick: CMU +16.5 (-110)
Charlotte at Florida -28
Allow us to introduce to you the ultimate letdown spot of the weekend! The Florida Gators just had their “must win” game of the young season, taking down Tennessee at home 29-16. It was a game Billy Napier had to have, as the Gators felt close to becoming irrelevant in the SEC. Not to mention all the other teams in Florida are finding some success (FSU, Miami, UCF) it would be quite embarrassing if this Gator team got off to a 1-2 start. They showed up and showed out, and are now ranked #25 in the country. With a road trip to Kentucky next week, this feels like a prime spot to fade the Gators off a big win. Is Charlotte any good? I have no fucking idea. Trust the process.
The Pick: Charlotte +28 (-110)
Memphis at Missouri -7
Memphis just burned the public after a 28-24 win against Navy (+14) last Thursday night. On the flip side, Missouri had a massive win at home against top ranked Kansas St on a walk-off 61 yard field goal. That was a revenge spot I was personally too scared to get involved with, as I respect K St and have their win total over on the year. We like Memphis here in what we feel could be a letdown spot for Missouri, and also testing out a trend that was profitable last season with betting on a team that didn’t cover the week prior against a team that did (we send a list of these matchups weekly to paid subscribers). This line has dropped to 6.5 most places, but you can still find a 7, or buy it back. We don’t love missing a key number, so suggest buying it to 7.
The Pick: Memphis +7 (-120)
RECAP:
NFL
Bears/Chiefs OVER 48 (-110) (Degen’s Best Bet)
Colts +7.5 (+100) (Dino’s Best Bet)
Bears +12.5 (-110) (Steak’s Best Bet)
Panthers +6 (-110)
Bills/Commanders UNDER 43.5 (-110)
CFB
Texas A&M 1H -4 (-120)
Louisville -13.5 (-120)
Kansas -9 (-115)
CMU +16.5 (-110)
Charlotte +28 (-110)
Memphis +7 (-120)
Will you take Texas A&M 1h @ -5.5? That's what I got now