Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for as you take your Sunday morning poop before punching in bets for the day. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
With the Titans/Steelers postponed and Cam Newton testing positive delaying the Pats/Chiefs, we should all remember that the football season is one of the greatest gifts we have. Cherish it while its here.
Recap:
We went 3-3 last week, and both of our survivor scares won outright.
1pm game overs are hitting roughly 80%, and the under is coming in around the same for the later games. Will this start to even out? The public rolled on Sunday night with Packers ML and Over (1H, 2H and game), and again on Monday with the Chiefs ML (Over pushed). Very rarely does the public crush both primetime totals, although the trendy dog cashed outright in both. Something to keep an eye on as we go into this weekend.
The Parlay Punisher - Cardinals @ Panthers +3
These teams were on opposite sides of the Survivor League scare last week. Do the Cardinals bounce back, or can the Panthers get a streak going? Public is already betting the former. Which means, we’re on Carolina. Sure, traveling cross country takes a bit of a toll, but it’s still early in the season. Don’t overthink it. Most bettors will include the Cardinals ML in parlays this weekend, and we expect their tickets to get destroyed. But tell ya what… we don’t feel good enough with 3. Let’s go ahead and buy 1.5 points and get this to 4.5.
PICK: Panthers +4.5 (Buy 1.5 points -140)
The Market Adjuster - Colts @ Bears +2.5
Big Dick Nick is back (hard maybe!) and the Bears are 3-0. As a ticket holder of the Bears season total over 8, and Bears to win NFC North, we are in love. HOWEVER, in this instance we recognize it’s time for a correction. Colts ML is the play here as this is a low scoring, back and forth game but in shocking fashion, Rivers won’t turn the ball over late. Colts defense is ranked #1 (free fantasy football advice) and we we expect them to shut down the Bears and frustrate Chicago fans just as they started getting excited for the Foles era.
PICK: Colts ML – 130
Fitzmagic Forever* - Seahawks @ Dolphins +6
We have five words to explain the pick in this game: WEIRD THINGS HAPPEN IN MIAMI. The Dolphins defense looked exceptional against Minshew on TNF, and they were missing their best DB. No idea if Byron Jones is back, but it doesn’t matter. Ryan Fitzpatrick is like a trip to Vegas. Amazing for 2-3 days, and then it all crashes hard. But this week… this is your second day in Sin City, so grab a coffee, hit the Blackjack tables, and enjoy the magic before it’s all gone.
*probably 3 weeks
PICK: Dolphins +6
Survivor Scare of the week - Chargers @ Buccaneers -7
Bucs -7 at home vs the Chargers. People are loving the Bucs, and rightfully so. The defense looks awesome and Brady is dialed in. The Godwin injury hurts, and the Chargers are going to be pissed after losing as a big favorite against Carolina. Bucs D loves to blitz, so expect a shaky game out of Herbert. We see the Bucs offense having their own struggles against a strong Charger D that can get pressure on Tom. Be careful with Bucs in this spot.
PICK: Chargers +7.5 -120; Strong lean on Under u42.5
Carol Baskins Bowl - Jaguars @ Bengals - 3
The two of us are a bit split on this one, although we have both bought in on Burrow. One side sees the Bengals pulling out their first win. Minshew is fresh off a Thursday night reality check where the Jags looked pathetic on both sides of the ball. The other one of us has a slight inkling that the Bengals and Burrow are in for a painful year. They have yet to win a game (0-2-1) and, have only been outscored by at total of 8 points all year. It’s starting to feel like the Bengals 2020 will be filled with the always being in the game, but struggling to come up with the first W. Bengals are sneaky 3-0 ATS, and the luck runs out.
PICK: Writers are split; Bengals ML - 140 (Brandon); Jags +2.5 (Greg)
Don’t get too cute - Saints @ Lions +3
Saints are 0-2 this year without Michael Thomas, getting embarrassed as favorites back to back weeks in prime time. Saints might actually be bad. Brees can’t throw a downfield pass. Did the Lions wake up last week with a big upset in Arizona? We see this game going one of two ways: Either the Saints snap out of their funk and blow out the lions. Or this is a close game late. Betting on the former, but even in a close one we’ll take Payton over Patricia.
PICK: Saints -3
Quick Hitters:
Eagles +7 and ML - Eagles are a mess, no reason anyone would take them this week. So naturally, that means we are.
Bills v. Raiders Over 52.5
AHHHHHHAHAHHAHHHH UNDAAAAAAA - Colts Bears U 43
Best of luck this Sunday! If you enjoyed this write up then please share.