NFL Week 4 & College Football Week 5
Hitting Stride
Do you remember
The 21st night of September?
Love was changin' the minds of pretenders
While chasin' the clouds away
We are just about 1/4 the way through the NFL season, and it’s the last week before BYE’s kick in. Enjoy your last fully loaded slate till December.
A nice bounce back week in the NFL, and caught some fire in College Football. We have to be honest and tell you that we love both boards this weekend. Hopefully that’s a good thing - let’s get into it.
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Current Record YTD:
NFL: 8-5 (+2.41 Units)
CFB: 14-14-1 (-1.3 Units)
NFL WEEK 4
Rams at Colts -1.5 Total 45.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
The schedule makers must have it out for the Rams. It’s been a brutal start to the season - week 1 in Seattle, then back home for week 2 against the Niners, and back-to-back road against at Cincy and now Indy. LA finds themselves 1-2 and in early desperation mode. It’s not that expectations were high for this Rams team, as they had a 6.5 win total and are also missing their best player in Cooper Krupp, but with a vet like Matthew Stafford and a coach like Sean McVay, I have a hard time thinking they’re packing it in early. Nobody wants to be 1-3, especially not a SB winning QB and HC who have elected to stay in the league and instead of living on the golf course.
The Colts (2-1) have been an exciting team, despite missing rookie QB Anthony Richardson for the last 1.5 games. AR went out with a concussion after the 1H of the Texans game, but backup Gardner Minshew has been rock solid filling in and led the team to an outright win against Baltimore last week (shoutout map play #1). New coach Shane Steichen is sitting 3rd on the odds board for Coach of the Year. Something I can’t get out of my head is that their win total was 6.5 but juiced to the over. That seemed telling, because I wasn’t a believer in AR having early success, and thought there was no way this team was winning 7 games. It’s been a small sample size, but AR looks good, and if he can stay healthy, this offense could be a problem.
I personally think the Rams win this game and avoid the 1-3 start, but my fellow Degenerates are not quite as convinced. At the end of the day, my strongest lean in this game is the Rams offense performing well, and bouncing back after a 16 point performance on primetime in Cincinnati where Stafford was sacked six times and intercepted twice. Anthony Richardson has returned to practice and is expected to play. Rather than put any faith into this poor Rams defense, I’m going all in on offense here and taking the over. We’ve got a veteran QB and HC going against a rookie QB and HC. I think we get a Stafford/McVay masterclass.
The Pick: OVER 45.5 (-110)
Steelers at Texans +3 Total 41.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Nailed “The Map” play last week with the Colts catching the Ravens in a tough spot, and I’m ready for more as the Steelers travel to Houston. But before all that let’s talk about Texans rookie QB, CJ Stroud.
I’m not going to pretend like I know ball. I played (sat the bench) freshman football, then picked up a lacrosse stick and never looked back. But I know how to listen, what to look for, and who to trust. There are murmurs from the experts about his performance to start the season , and they are getting louder…
The Steelers have a tendency to play down to their opponents over the years and this is a prime spot for it. Coming off back to back wins in primetime games against some of their biggest rivals. These were gutsy, gritty games that went down to the wire. Next week they’re back in Pittsburgh for a huge divisional game versus the Baltimore Ravens and sandwiched in between all this action is a boring little 1:00 pm game in Houston.
Additionally, the Steelers had flight issues getting out of Vegas. I know this may not seem like a big deal but Mike Tomlin strikes me as a guy who is in bed at 9:59 pm and up at 5:00 am everyday on the dot. A man of ultimate routine and discipline. It’s minor and easily overlooked but it could be the cherry on top for disruption.
Another nugget worth noting is the Steelers might be without punter Pressley Harvin - don’t laugh! The man has been amazing (shoutout Marc for pointing this out) and with the way the Steelers play, the battle for field position is a huge advantage.
I’m a bias Steeler fan who has bet them the last two games, but this spot is a hard fade and I wouldn’t blame you for getting greedy with the ML.
The Pick: Texans +3 (-120) (Greg’s Best Bet)
Bengals at Titans +2.5 Total 41 (Steak’s Best Bet)
The Bengals are coming off a Monday Night win where Burrow started to look more like himself, and Jamar Chase finally went off. Meanwhile the Titans get embarrassed as short dogs in Cleveland. Maybe theses teams area headed in opposite directions, but Steak says not yet.
Before Burrow suited-up on Monday this line sat at Titans -1.5, which is a bit suspicious to say the least. Tannehill has looked less than impressive and Derrick Henry hasn’t been anything special. Tennessee might be falling off, but this could be a vintage “Vrabel strikes when it’s least expected” spots. The Titans might end up being that team who just finds ways to win (or at least cover) at home. We’ll take Vrabel as a home dog in what feels like a contrarian spot.
The Pick: Titans +2.5 (-115)
Cardinals at 49ers -14 Total 44.5
The Arizona Cardinals, who everyone thought (us included) would be tanking for Caleb Williams, are 3-0 ATS to start the season. A new coach, a QB that was cut in favor of Mason Rudolph, and a roster that on paper wins maybe three games. Yet here we are. The Cardinals ruined 50% of your leagues remaining survivor pool and countless Cowboys live ML tickets last week as they pulled off the biggest upset in the young NFL season. Josh Dobbs is riding high and who can blame him.
But this is the week his balloon gets popped.
Granted, it is a road game and the Niners are coming off 10-days of rest, but any chance of SF sleepwalking evaporated when the Cardinals came out guns blazing for the third time in a three week season.
We like Kyle Shanahan revenge against Jonathan Gannon who was the Eagles DC in the NFC Championship last year.
The Pick: Niners -14 (-105)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Dolphins at Bills Total 53.5
Maybe it’s just in our DNA but the Dolphins scoring seventy last week almost guaranteed we would favor the under in the next game. Then we find out it’s a battle for the king of the AFC East. As good as these offenses are there’s a chance this Bills defense could be on of the best in the league. We also still don’t trust Ken Dorsey and the conservative play calling that was on display in the Meadowlands for their week 1 loss.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5
In the past few weeks, we’ve started to focus on specific situational spots such as the “look ahead” and “letdown”. This week, we will now introduce you to the bounce-back. After a dreadful week 1 performance going 2-7, we’ve clawed back to .500. Plenty of season left - let’s continue identifying these spots and trust the process.
USC at Colorado +21.5 Total 73.5
Colorado is one of the most talked about teams in College Football. During the offseason, their win total was bet down from 5.5 to 3.5. It’s fair to say the Buffs have the sharps “in piss”. Last week they were ranked and sitting at 3-0 before getting absolutely destroyed by Oregon. The Ducks went up 35-0 and didn’t look back. What was notable in that game was the total which opened around 70.5 and moved down to 68.5. Smart money probably knew that the Buffs offense would get humbled by a Ducks team that was “playing for wins, not clicks”.
We’ve done a pretty good job avoiding the Buffs. Faded week 1 with TCU and learned our lesson. In fact, Steak even hit Colorado the following two weeks. We laid off last week, but now get the feeling that they’ll have a decent bounce back at home against a very soft USC defense. We thought about the Buffs with the points, but respect Caleb Williams too much and have zero trust in either defense. One of the highest totals you’ll see all season, and we think that’s telling.
The Pick: OVER 73.5 (-110)
South Alabama at James Madison -3
South Alabama was a team that we (successfully) faded last week, as they fell victim to being in our “letdown” spot after beating Oklahoma St on the road. They returned home as a double-digit favorite against CMU and lost outright. Now, we’re targeting them in a “bounce-back” spot against what we think is a very fraudulent 4-0 James Madison team. JMU’s three wins are by a combined 10 points, and two of those opponents were Utah State and Virginia, who are pitiful. Not only that, but they just played three straight road games. In any sport, we also like to fade a team in their first game back after a long road trip. USA! USA! (don’t check the Ryder Cup score)
The Pick: South Alabama +3
Florida at Kentucky -1.5 Total 44.5
We’re not quite sure if the Florida Gators are a good football team, but we don’t think they are as bad as most expected them to be going into this season. Their win total was 5.5, the lowest in a LONG time for a once prestigious program. But let’s take a look at the defensive performance thus far - they’ve allowed just 4 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. Granted, two of the teams they played are nobodies, but the other was Tennessee, who’s known to have a high powered offense. Even at Utah in week 1, the Utes scored 24 points, but that really only came from a 70 yard bomb on the first play of the game and after Mertz threw an INT inside the Gator 30 yard line. The defense held Utah to only 14 first downs and 270 yards.
We lean the Gators in this spot, especially seeing the line go from UK -3 —> -1.5. Both of these starting QB’s are transfers who aren’t too familiar with an SEC atmosphere. Kentucky QB Devin Leary was at NC State last year, and UF QB Graham Mertz was at Wisconsin. This will be Mertz’s first road game in a hostile environment. We expect this to be an ugly, low scoring game.
The Pick: UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Arizona St at Cal -12.5
Both of these below average teams just played juggernauts and got their asses kicked. However, only one of them covered - and that was the Sun Devils. Cal on the other hand went to Washington and got blasted by Michael Penix 59-32. We knew a lot of sharp guys on Cal last week, and they got burned. Something we love to do is go back to a team that just burned smart bettors, especially when they’re playing a team that just cashed. Your average bettor sees two bad teams and will likely be taking the points with the dog, yet the line moved from -10 —>12.5.
This is not just chasing steam though. We actually think Cal is a fairly decent team, as they played Auburn tough a few weeks ago and could have won the game. Arizona St meanwhile has put up some pathetic performances. They were shutout 39-0 at home by Fresno St, lost to a VERY bad Ok St team 27-15, and opened the season barely beating Southern Utah 24-21. Granted they did just make a QB change and turned to Drew Pyne last week (transfer from ND). As an Irish fan, I know Pyne fairly well, and let me tell ya…he stinks.
The Pick: Cal -12.5 (-105)
USF at Navy -3.5
Warning: this is purely a line read, and we are at high risk for looking like total fucking idiots. To put it simply - Navy shouldn’t be favored against anyone, let alone a USF team that just beat Rice 42-29 and only lost to Bama 17-3. This Navy team stinks. This USF team isn’t too bad. Is the wrong team favored? Feels like it, but we don’t act like we’re smarter than the odds makers.
The Pick: Navy -3.5 (-105)
Charlotte at SMU -23.5
Last but certainly not least, it’s our favorite “bounce-back” spot on the slate. Last weekend we backed Charlotte, as UF was in a look ahead spot with Kentucky on deck. Meanwhile SMU was playing their Super Bowl against rival TCU, and lost 34-17. They didn’t cover and the game went under, burning the absolute shit out of most sports bettors. I heard a lot of low-key love for the SMU upset against the Frogs, and they didn’t come close. Now the Stangs return home to play a Charlotte team that just gave it their all against the Gators, holding them to five (5!) field goals. The last thing this Charlotte defense needs is to fly to Dallas, Texas against a pissed off Mustang offense.
The Pick: SMU -23.5 (-115)
RECAP:
NFL
LAR/IND OVER 45.5 -110 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Texans +3 -120 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Titans +2.5 -115 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Niners -14 -105
Mia/Buff UNDER 53.5 -110
CFB
USC/Colorado OVER 73.5 (-110)
South Alabama +3 (-110)
UF/Kentucky UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Cal -12.5 (-105)
Navy -3.5 (-105)
SMU -23.5 (-115)