NFL Week 5 & College Football Week 6
The Best Gambling Month of the Year
The most glorious month for us Degenerates. NFL and College Football are in full force. MLB Playoffs are heating up. NBA tip-off is around the corner, and the puck drops in NHL next week. What a time to be alive!
We’ll keep the newsletter mostly football focused, but if you’d like to see where we stand across the board the best way is to follow us on twitter. NHL future plays will be discussed on the Board Review next week and plays will be posted as well.
Last week was great in the NFL, but after 3 consecutive winning weeks in College, regression hit hard. Time to get back on track.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 12-6 (+4.97 Units)
CFB: 15-19-1 (-5.39 Units)
NFL WEEK 5
Eagles at Rams +4.5 Total 49.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
In case you weren’t already aware, we at The Degenerate are Eagles Super Bowl ticket holders (2/3 of us at least). Yes, we are fading the Super Bowl hangover and think Philly has what it takes to make another run. But to be honest with you, it hasn’t been the most reassuring start. The Eagles biggest concerns: new OC and DC, tougher schedule, and losing key starters on defense. They’re 4-0, but they haven’t quite looked right. Are we panicking? Absolutely not. The Eagles are what we call “beefy”. They have arguably the best OL/DL combo in the NFL. They’re tough mother fuckers, and Nick Sirianni is a guy who simplifies the game for a young QB like Jalen Hurts, who frankly we still aren’t sure is even THAT good. We thought it would be good to preface this pick with that background first, so you can know that yes, maybe we are a tad biased. For the reasons we like Philly overall, are why I like them in this particular matchup.
The Rams are not tough. They do not have a great offensive line. Outside of Aaron Donald, they really don’t have much going for them on defense. What they do have is a veteran coach/QB tandem in McVay and Stafford, who seem to still have something to prove. They’ve also got a fun new rookie in Puka Nucua who’s been incredible filling in for the injured Cooper Kupp. LA finds themselves with a 2-2 record - not bad for a team with a 6.5 win total. They’ve had a pretty rough start to the schedule, and have been competitive in every game. As a Rams fan, you can only be pleased with the performance thus far, considering their low expectations.
In my opinion, this is where reality sets in. Philly has their problems on defense, and I’m sure McVay/Stafford will find ways to exploit that, but the Eagles offense appears to be getting better and better every week. I think that’s going to be a real problem for this Rams defense. Especially on turf, and especially in a nice new stadium that’s likely going to be filled by Eagles fans. Ultimately, I don’t see the Eagles offense punting in this game, and the Eagles D line should take advantage of the Rams weak O line and give Stafford some trouble.
The Pick: Eagles -4.5 (-105)
Bengals at Cardinals +3 Total 44.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
A tale of two cities. The best of times the worst of times - not in terms of record, but in terms of expectations.
The look ahead line for this game was Bengals -8.5. You can point to a lot of disappointments so far this season, but it really doesn’t get any worse than what’s going on in Cincinnati. You have a pre-season Super Bowl contender crashing and burning week-in, week-out. Burrow and the Bengals have not been able to put together anything on the offensive side of the ball. They’re coming off an effort where they only put up a 3pts against a Titans team who’s expected to have a down year.
The Cardinals on the other hand have been one of the bigger surprises this season. They’ve only won one game, but they’ve been an ATS wagon and only failed to cover once. They are playing well above their means and starting to become a trendy dog.
This is about as low of a spot as you can find the Bengals. Cincy struggled terribly this year on the road against the Browns and the Titans (total of SIX points in both games). But both of those teams have strong defensive lines that were able to get very quick pressure on a very immobile Joe Burrow. The Cardinals don’t quite have that.
I think the Bengals D will be good enough to slow the Josh Dobbs sensation that somehow continues to produce. My bet is that the Bengals offense is able to put together enough fire power to pull out the win and cover in Arizona. I’m certainly not buying that the Bengals are back, but they are showing up in a game where their season is absolutely on the line in a stacked AFC.
Vegas has dropped this line like Megan Thee Stallion - but they had a hard stop at -3. Despite the flux of Cardinals money that continues to flow. And for me, that’s the signal in the noise.
The Pick: Bengals -3 (-110)
Ravens at Steelers +4.5 Total 38 (Steak’s Best Bet)
There is no one more hated in Pittsburgh than Matt Canada. The offense has been anemic throughout his tenure and it has shown zero signs of improvement. Blame Kenny Pickett. Blame Najee. Blame whoever you want, but Matt Canada is the root of the problem.
It takes a special type of gambler to know what Matt Canada is doing and still decide to back him. Enter Steak. Despite the offensive woes, Tomlin knows how to get this team up for a divisional opponent and there is none bigger than the Baltimore Ravens. We expect a typical Steelers/Ravens gritty, slugfest and a total of 38 gives us even more confidence. Somehow, someway Pittsburgh gets the cover.
The Pick: Steelers +4.5 (-110)
Chiefs at Vikings +3.5 Total 52.5
If you are going to bet against the Chiefs - do it early in the season. Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, but it goes without saying the lack of WR talent for Kansas City is creating some problems for Mahomes. They’ll figure it out, but this is not a puzzle solved in early October.
The Vikings are one of those teams that can immediately make you feel like a moron for betting on them, and there is no better opportunity for it than getting just over a field goal against the 2022 MVP and Super Bowl Champions. But thats not stopping us. Minnesota just got a little bit of oxygen with their first win of the season over the Panthers, and we think they keep it rolling. This spot for the Chiefs is very reminiscent of last seasons early L at Indianapolis, which was perhaps the grossest play on the board. Does history repeat itself? We say yes.
The Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-110)
Texans at Falcons -1.5 Total 41.5
Last week we were all over the Texans for Map Play #2 (now 2-0). CJ Stroud showed up and then some. The Falcons are returning from an embarrassing performance in London yet still find themselves as short favorites against a Texans team that appears to be rolling.
Long term we are buyers of the Texans, but you don’t go from winning three games the previous season to an immediate force in the NFL. It’s peaks and valley along the way. The Texans O-line injuries finally start to catch up to them after back to back 30+ point performances. We’ve said it several times, but this Falcons D is better than people realize and we’re betting them to show up.
The Pick: Falcons ML (-125)
Titans at Colts +2.5 Total 42.5
One of the more intriguing games of the weekend with a Titans team no one can seem to figure out and an Anthony Richardson lead team that is just begging to break out.
The Titans went from a dog to fav, and we totally agree with the line movement. I (Degen) will personally be playing a side and total in this game, and going with Tennessee on the ML. Vrabel has had great success getting his teams to play well in Indianapolis, and now it’s going against a rookie HC and QB. I always favor the veterans in a matchup of rookies, especially with how this Titans offense looked last weekend. Did Derrick Henry just get his groove back? We’ll find out.
The Pick: Over 42.5 (-110)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Cowboys/49ers Under 45
Primetime, Sunday night, revenge spot for the Cowboys. Two of the best defenses in the NFL. One quarterback is a guy people still aren’t sure if he’s good and the other is Brock Purdy. Say it with us… TICK TICK TICKKKK! We see a field goal fest out west.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6
Rutgers at Wisconsin -13
Rutgers is 4-1 and 4-0-1 ATS, with their only loss at Michigan…but are they good? Hard to tell. Their wins were against Temple, Northwestern, Virginia Tech and Wagner. What do they all have in common? They stink. Wisconsin on the other hand was very trendy this offseason as a sneaky pick to win the Big 10. Hard to blame anyone, as there’s lots of excitement with new coach Luke Fickell and a new “air raid” offense. However, they haven’t really gotten off to the best start offensively. I think it’s something that will only improve with time, and they’re a coming off a BYE week. The week before they went on the road and beat Purdue 38-17. This number looks steep, and only makes sense that Rutgers appears to be a trendy dog. You know what we do with trendy dogs.
The Pick: Wisconsin -13
Toledo at UMass +19
I’m going to be totally honest with you… I have no idea why this is making our picks, but Steak is in love with UMass. I wanted to get his reason why but I think he fell asleep early last night. So I am literally left up there like a news anchor with non-functioning teleprompter and I have no fucking idea what to say. I’d rather just be honest than pretend I know why we’re betting on UMass, but I’ll see what he says today on the Board Review and have him tweet it. Trust the process. Trust Steak. (But also verify..which I’ll do later today).
The Pick: UMass +19 (I guess)
#10 Notre Dame at #25 Louisville +6.5 Total 54
The Irish just followed up a last second deflating loss with a last second inspiring win. The chance for a playoff appearance is still alive and they know they can’t take any opponent lightly. That’s easier said than done - especially with USC on deck next week. There’s no doubt this is a look-ahead spot for ND, but we aren’t leaning into that as much since they’ve already got a L on the schedule an almost went down last weekend at Duke. Instead of fading them, we’ve got our eye on the total. ND’s defense has been playing out of their mind the past two weeks. Shutting down Ohio State and Duke’s offenses is beyond impressive, but unfortunately as a fan, I think it’s inevitable they slip up and run out of gas a bit. What better time for it than a game at Louisville against a heavy pass offense the week before you play the Trojans. It’s going to be hard to take Jack Plummer seriously when you’ve got Caleb Williams on your mind.
First year HC Jeff Brohm has the Cardinals offense firing on all cylinders. ND’s offense on the other hand has failed to score more than 2 TD’s in back-to-back weeks. We think this is finally where the Irish offense needs to carry the defense. Should be a great game, and outside of UK in the last week of the season, this is by far the biggest game on Louisville’s schedule. Brohm is going to bring the kitchen sink.
The Pick: Over 54
Bowling Green at Miami OH -10
Bowling Green was a late add for us as they played Georgia Tech who was in a look ahead spot with Miami on deck. Not only did they cover as 22 point underdogs, but they fucking won outright. Now, they’re in our “letdown” spot. Miami OH burned a lot of people in week 1 against Miami FL, and since then they’ve covered 4 straight spreads. No need to get cute - we think they keep it rolling.
The Pick: Miami OH -9.5
Colorado at Arizona St +4 Total 60.5
We don’t typically like going against line moves, but we couldn’t help but notice this total opening at 59.5. That seems oddly low with Colorado involved, especially after soaring over last weekend against USC. This Colorado offense appears to be legit, but the defense is far from it. Arizona St on the other hand, can’t decide who it wants as their starting QB. The offense is not one to light up a scoreboard, no matter how bad this Buffs defense might be. Colorado struggled in their last road game against Oregon, which feeds into us expecting a sloppy game on both sides.
The Pick: Under 60.5
#20 Kentucky at #1 Georgia -14.5
It’s no secret that Georgia is 0-5 ATS. They were just on the road against Auburn as 14 point favorites and failed to cover. Heck they barely made it out alive. The #1 team in the country and odds on favorite to win the National Championship (+300) are likely not sitting well with the average sports bettor, and that’s when we like to jump in. Kentucky just manhandled Florida from start to finish. The Wildcats had over 300 yards rushing and got out to a 30-7 lead early in 3rd Q and never looked book. Meanwhile, Georgia was life and death with a mediocre Auburn team. Now the spread is still quite steep, and that’s speaking to us. Not to mention the hook on 14.5…doesn’t that feel so tempting to take Kentucky? This fits our “top team in a contrarian spot” angle.
The last time we loved Georgia this much it was 2022 against Tennessee. They were -9 at home after the Vols had just taken down Alabama. The Vols were a trendy dog then, as are the Wildcats now. I mean how could you not want all those points, right? Feels like the white van saying “free candy”. Kentucky isn’t going to run on the Bulldogs like they did on the Gators, and just as we saw Graham Mertz struggle in his first SEC road game, I’m expecting the same from Devin Leary (at Vandy doesn’t count). Go Dawgs.
The Pick: Georgia -14.5
RECAP:
NFL
Eagles -4.5 -105 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Bengals -3 -110 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Steelers +4.5 -110 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Vikings +3.5 -110
Falcons ML -125
TEN/IND Over 42.5 -115
DAL/SF Under 45 -110
CFB
Wisconsin -13 -110
UMass +19 -110
Notre Dame/L’Ville OVER 54
Miami OH -9.5 -115
Colorado/AZ ST UNDER 60.5 -110
Georgia -14.5 -110