NFL Week 6 & College Football Week 7
Heads Will Roll
And just like that - we have our first head coach fired. Cash that Matt Rhule (+225) ticket!
We are officially 1/3 of the way through the NFL season, and the BYE weeks are upon us. If you want to get involved with some in-season future bets, then be sure to follow us on Twitter @thedegenweekly. For example: we are not writing the 1-4 Raiders off just yet, and may look for a way to invest in them. Perhaps to make the playoffs (+330) or over their alt win total of 7.5. There are so many creative ways to buy low and sell high on teams you feel you’ve got a good read on.
It’s with the Degenerate’s great pleasure to add a feature column from a former NFL Insider! We’ll be featuring their writeup intermittently throughout the season, so keep an eye out because this dude is in the know…or at least he used to be.
Fresh off winning weeks in both NFL and CFB. Lotta season left - let’s keep stacking units.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 26-14-2 (+8.86 Units)
CFB: 28-20 (+4.61 Units)
NFL Week 6
Bengals @ Saints +2 Total 43 - (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Up until sending the newsletter out this morning, this line opened Bengals -1.5 and stayed -1.5 the entire week. Now, depending on where you look, it just moved to -2. Does that scare me off? Not necessarily, but if it gets up to 2.5/3 then I could potentially be off. Again, follow us on Twitter for updates.
I often say that a line freeze is more telling than a line move. The Bengals are one of if not THE most public bet team of the weekend, getting 79% of the tickets, but only 53% of the money. Something we always look for when backing a team are low tickets and higher dollars. This would fit the Saints in this spot.
Both teams have underachieved in the eyes of the public. The Saints were one of the trendiest picks to go over their season win total, and some even had them to upset the Bucs as NFC South winners. We didn’t touch New Orleans, but we did fade the Bengals in the form of missing the playoffs at +120. It was a number too fishy to pass up for a team that just made it to the Super Bowl and didn’t lose any key players. Through 5 games, both teams find themselves 2-3 on the season. The Bengals won games agains the Jets and Tua-less Dolphins, and just lost on a late field goal in Baltimore. Meanwhile the Saints won and covered against the Seahawks after returning home from London with no BYE week. This is worth nothing, as most teams tend to lose in this spot with added travel and no extra rest. Now, the Red Rifle that is Andy Dalton finds himself in a revenge spot (again) against his former team.
We all expected a good Saints defense this season, and have yet to see it. With the total opening 43.5 and trending down to 43, in addition to the lack of line movement with the spread…we just might see it show up against Joey B and his vulnerable offensive line.
The Pick: Saints +2
Ravens @ Giants +5.5 Total 45 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Ask any Sommelier and they’ll tell you Chardonnay is having a moment.
Ask any football fan and they’ll tell you so are the New York Football Giants.
Brian Daboll has turned this team completely around. It’s truly amazing what coaching can do, and how much a McAdoo and Joe Judge can hold you back. The Giants return home after upsetting the Packers across the pond and now they face another tough opponent.
Lamar Jackson is 12-0 against NFC teams in his career. The dude is putting the offense on his back week after week, and we are just praying he can find a way to bring home the MVP Trophy for our futures. The bets for this matchup are pretty split at 50/50, but the handle is telling another story. 67% of the money is on the Ravens and this line has ticked up from -5 to -5.5, and even -6 at some books. I love the Ravens here, but one note needs to be addressed: Wink Martindale.
Wink joined the Giants as Defensive Coordinator after a 10 year stint in Baltimore, so you can be damn sure he knows the in’s and out’s of his former employer. But you know what? In a sick way, this makes me like the Ravens even more. Your average gambler doesn’t know about Wink, but Vegas certainly does. As much as the G-Men may be prepared from an X’s and O’s perspective, the oddsmakers certainly see the disparity of talent to stop a guy as dynamic as Lamar. Ravens early, Ravens often.
The Pick: Ravens -5.5
ANONYMOUS NFL INSIDER PICK OF THE WEEK
Buccaneers @ Steelers +8 Total 45.5
After years of living and working in the belly of the beast, I've left the business of the NFL to join the future of the NFL - The Degenerate! Your new NFL insider is officially now an outsider looking in and I'm elated to put my background to the test as I attempt to become a full on degenerate overnight.
Following in the "Manning Cast" footsteps, I'm only contracted for a set number of weeks in the season. Unlike the "Manning Cast", I doubt I'll leave you wanting for more, but alas, here we go!
It's official, Tom Brady truly is one of us. At this point it's clear the man will do anything to avoid having to go home and deal with the rigors of regular life as a dad and footstool for Giselle. The list of things Tom's willing to do to avoid his home life includes playing through injuries his body would otherwise prefer he not. This also aligns with his entire off-field brand, I.e. my body is special because I treat it special and thus I don't age and I never get hurt to the point where I miss games. Well folks, I think Tom is hurt and potentially hurt to the point it will begin to affect his output this year going forward. Combine that with a Tampa O-line that despite being graded out at an inflated ranking due to Tom's quick release tendencies is realy average at best on the interior and all of the sudden our smoke has turned to embers of golden fire. That fire becomes an inferno of yellow and black this week when the Bucs roll into Pittsburgh against a desperate Steelers team and my money is on Tomlin offering each player 3 pairs of fresh J's if they win.
Fishiest line of the week from our friends in the 702 and it's time to get bold. Slam the Steelers and the points and feel free to check your testicular (or general) fortitude by sprinkling in some Steelers ML.
The Pick: Steelers +8
Jaguars vs. Colts -2 Total 42
Last Thursday night was about as bad of a football game as you can imagine. The Colts won after four monotonous hours of punts, sacks and interceptions. It was so boring that Broncos fans up and left when it went to overtime. Everyone will remember that game for a long time. But you know what was equally boring and didn’t get any attention? The Jaguars losing 13-6 to the Texans. Lost in the shuffle of a packed 1 PM slate…
This is where, in our opinion, you can get a bit of value. And we have the numbers to prove it. Despite the public being in favor of the Jags, the sharps and the money favor the Colts. The Jaguars already beat the Colts 24-0 this year, but this is right around the time that HC Frank Reich starts to find his footing. This Indianapolis team certainly looks worse than years past and it may be tough to fully turn it around, but this has get right spot written all over it.
The Pick: Colts -2
Cardinals @ Seahawks +2.5 Total 50.5
Who needs the Legion of Boom when you’ve got Geno Smith! Electricity on offense, Swiss cheese on defense – your 2022 Seattle Seahawks. The Cardinals have their own bag of issues on both sides of the ball, and despite their loss to the Eagles last week, they covered the spread and looked competent.
True contrarian play here as no one wants to take the Seahawks, but if you ask us, putting this line under a field goal is bait. Everyone is seeing the Cardinals at a short number and jumping on it. If Marcus Mariota can win in Seattle, then why can’t Kyler…right? No shame in waiting, as this could easily move up to 3 before kickoff, but for now we’re buying the half point, putting our faith in Geno, and gambling that Kliff Kingsbury finds a way to choke this one away.
The Bet: Seahawks +3 (-120 — buy .5)
Panthers @ Rams -10 Total 42
If you read our pre-season write-ups, you saw we were all over Matt Rhule to be first coach fired. Not only did Rhule get fired, but their Defensive Coordinate also went with him, and Baker got hurt. There’s bad news and then there’s the Carolina Panthers. Secondary Coach Steve Wilks takes over as head coach and PJ Walker will fill in for Baker Mayfield. What a nightmare.
The Rams have been one of the biggest disappointments after winning the Super Bowl. Their offense just can’t seem to get it together, and at first glance 10 points feels like a ton for the Rams against anyone. It speaks volumes to how bad the situation in Carolina has gotten.
Not going to sugar coat it - we don’t love the Panthers here, as this is the ultimate get right spot for the Rams. But a system play is a system play. A coach getting fired = us placing a bet. It gives us comfort to know sharp money is on our side. Despite taking 50% of the bets, the Panthers are getting 73% of the money…
The Bet: Panthers +10
Bookie Pick of the Week: 3rd string, rookie QB Skylar Thompson makes his first start for the Dolphins, and guess who doesn’t care? Our guy knows how to spot a trap line. The Fins are getting just 28% of the bets but 63% of the money.
Don’t overthink the team or the players - see what the line is telling you. This one is speaking in Echolocation.
The Pick: Dolphins +3.5
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Bills @ Chiefs +2.5 Total 54
One of the most electric playoff games in NFL history finished with the Chiefs on top 42-36. Josh Allen revenge against Mahomes - who in the fuck doesn’t expect fireworks? Contrarian nature aside, we have good reason. Less than 20% of the money and handle are on the under, but guess what? It’s not moving. We define this as a line freeze, where despite all the money and public are hitting a side, but Vegas refuses to budge. Line freeze >>> everything.
There’s a reason Vegas is holding firm here. Trust the system.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7
#19 Kansas @ Oklahoma -8.5 Total 62.5
Yes, you read that spread right. Now it’s important to note two things: 1. Kansas’s starting QB Jason Daniels is out (potentially for the season), and 2. Oklahoma’s starting QB Dillon Gabriel is back. This is the ultimate buy good news and sell bad news situation, which is typically something we never do. However, this is a little bit different. Kansas backup QB Jason Bean came in last weekend against TCU and actually looked pretty damn good, going 17/25 for 270 yards/4 TD’s/1 INT. On the flip side, Gabriel back is a huge boost for OU, but holy fuck have they been bad. This team just lost 49-0 to Texas. It’s no surprise that the Jayhawks are getting almost 87% with this many points, yet the line opened OU -7 and moved to -8.5. Tells us all we need to know.
The Pick: Oklahoma -8.5
Minnesota @ #24 Illinois +6.5 Total 39.5
This fits our system of unranked favorite against a ranked opponent, although there is one asterisk. It appears the status of Illinois starting QB Tommy DeVito is up in the air. Backup Sitkowski was pretty awful against Iowa last weekend, yet Illinois still came away with the win and now find themselves 5-1 on the year. Pretty impressive, but a bit fraudulent. A win at Wisconsin was okay, but losing at home to Indiana is still a real bad look. Minnesota’s last game was a loss at home to Purdue, followed by a week off. With an extra week to prepare, and potential uncertainty at QB for their opponent, we think the oddsmakers are expecting a bloodbath with this spread.
The Pick: Minnesota -6.5
Maryland @ Indiana +11.5 Total 61.5
Hate to stay in the Big 10 with another gross matchup, but we can’t discriminate. Another spread that’s screaming “too much!” right in our face. As we mentioned, Indiana is bad. However, they did hang with Michigan for 3 quarters last week. The Hoosiers went into the game as 22 point underdogs, and were only trailing 17-10 heading into the 4th quarter before Michigan pulled away. We love to fade a team after they just played what we feel was their “Super Bowl”. Indiana got up for that game and gave it everything they had. Do they have anything left in the tank for the Terps? We don’t think so, and the sharps don’t either. This line opened Maryland -10 and was quickly bet up to 11.5, which is now juiced -115 and could be on the rise to -12 soon.
The Pick: Maryland -11.5
#8 Oklahoma St @ #13 TCU -3.5 Total 68.5
Jovan decided to leave his bias out of his pick this week, but that’s okay. We’re on the Frogs regardless. This is a classic case of the public thinking “wrong team favored” in this spot. An opener of -3 tells us Vegas says these teams are even on a neutral, and the smart money hit the frogs moving the line up to -4 just about everywhere except Fanduel. We faded OK State on the season, and at 5-0, it ain’t looking so good. But with a win total of 8.5, this team is going to lose some games. Sure they beat Baylor and Texas Tech, but they haven’t seen an offense quite like TCU’s. The Cowboys defense isn’t what it used to be, and we don’t expect them to be able to hang with the Frogs. We do respect the hell out of Mike Gundy though, so we are going to dodge the points and lay it with the Frogs.
The Pick: TCU ML -180
LSU @ Florida -2.5 Total 50.5
Both teams sit at 4-2, but it’s fair to say that after a beatdown by Tennessee at home, nobody likes this LSU team. They didn’t in the offseason with the viral videos of Brian Kelly’s shitty southern accent, and they still don’t. Florida as a short favorite at home has the public drooling. The Gators are getting ~60% of the bets, yet the line opened -3 and has dropped to -2.5. Although it’s a small move, this indicates sharp money is hitting LSU. Florida plays pretty well as underdogs (beating Utah and covering @ Tenn), but as a favorite they are just 1-3 ATS, including an outright loss to UK and barely hanging on against USF (both at home too).
The Pick: LSU +2.5
#5 Clemson @ FSU +3.5 Total 51.5
Is this the fishiest spread of the weekend? We know an undefeated Clemson team still hasn’t totally won over the confidence of the public, as they are not the Clemson of old. But FSU is not a public darling either after two straight losses. The Seminoles had chances to beat NC State on the road with a 17-3 lead at halftime. What came next? The Noles got outscored 16-0, and threw an awful interception to end the game. This was also after NC State’s starting QB was injured. It was about as pathetic of a choke job as you’ll see. This line opened -5.5, and the public is all over Clemson, but the line has fallen a full 2 points. What the?! This is a classic reverse line move to a non-trendy home dog. We love that.
The Pick: FSU +3.5
Jovan’s Best Bet (@jovan_deeb)
Arkansas @ BYU -1.5 Total 66.5
This total opening in the 60s and continuing to move to 66.5 shocked me. The Arkansas defense hasn’t been impressive by any means, giving up 89 points in the last two weeks to Alabama and Mississippi St. But their defensive performance especially last week had to do with their offense without KJ Jefferson not being able to move the ball and keep their defense off the field in the same way. This is also a BYU offense that is far from impressive. They struggle against defenses more physical than them; 26 points in a 2 OT game against Baylor, 20 points last week against Notre Dame, and even 20 points against Oregon. Now their team total is at 33.5 which is just a point and a half lower than it was in their season opener against USF! Not to mention this is an offense with a banged-up Jaren Hall. On the other side, this is a great spot to buy low on this Arkansas offense.
They were a popular team before their 3 straight losses, and even against Texas A&M when KJ Jefferson played the entirety of the game their offense hasn’t looked good. Now everyone has hopped off the train and I’ll get back on. This BYU run defense is not good and Raheim Sanders should have a huge game on the ground. KJ Jefferson hopefully coming back should bring balance and explosiveness to the offense that BYU won’t be able to handle. Give me the over in a shootout in Provo.
The Pick: OVER 66.5
RECAP:
NFL
Saints +2 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Ravens -5.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Steelers +8
Colts -2
Seahawks +3 (-120 — buy the hook)
Dolphins +3.5
Bills/Chiefs UNDER 54
CFB
Oklahoma -8.5
Minnesota -6.5
Maryland -11.5
TCU -3.5
LSU +2.5
FSU +3.5
Arkansas/BYU OVER 66.5 (Jovan’s Best Bet)