NFL Week 6 & College Football Week 7
Bye Week Breakdown
Before jumping into this weeks picks we wanted to include a note on bye weeks.
Steve Makinen for VSIN put out a couple of great articles on his NFL betting systems as they pertain to the bye week.
"The bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference of one or two wins."
If you care to do a deep dive the articles below:
We’ve bookmarked both of these articles and will certainly have our eye on some spots he identified going forward. Spoiler alert: we already love the Packers in Week 7.
A nice small profit from last weekend in both NFL and College Football. Let’s get to it!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 16-9 (+5.53 Units)
CFB: 19-21-1 (-3.79 Units)
NFL WEEK 6
Eagles at Jets +7 Total 41 (Degen’s Best Bet)
My best bet last weekend was the Eagles in LA. Am I being greedy by going back to them? Maybe. Am I drinking too much Philly Kool-Aid betting on them this often while holding a SB and last undefeated team (+850) ticket? Probably. But I don’t give a fuck. Our guy Steak put it best when he saw the Eagles live in Tampa - this team is “BEEFY”, and I love beefy.
Last weeks bet was more about how the Eagles offense could wear down an overachieving Rams defense. Despite not putting up quite as many points as expected, they held the ball for 40 minutes and went 13/18 on third down. I’d call that domination. The Rams died a slow painful death, and that might be how the Eagles win most of their games. Now I’m switching it up and backing their defense, which to be totally honest has not looked all that great this season.
It’s no secret that the Eagles are adjusting to life with two new coordinators after losing Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) and Shane Steichen (Colts). It is my belief that both sides of the ball will improve over the course of the season with more reps and familiarity under the new schemes. The one problem that the D has faced that the O hasn’t is injuries. They’ve missed multiple starers since week 1, and one of their best players (Nakobe Dean) has been on IR. Well, this week Dean returns and so does NT Fletcher Cox. That is bad news for the Jets run game, which quite frankly is the only thing that would concern me in this matchup.
QB’s like Sam Howell have carved up the Eagles defense, but I tend to think that’s more about the Commanders just being able to get up for a divisional game where they’ve had success in Philly. Matt Stafford was unable to get into a rhythm despite Cooper Kupp being back. Staff finished the game 21/37 with 222 yards and 2 TDs. On top of that the Eagles sacked him 4 times. The Jets have found a better formula on offense with Zach Wilson, as they are calling more plays that get him out of the pocket. Last week Breece Hall ran for 170 yards against the Broncos. I’d imagine the Jets will try to establish the run game, but I don’t see them having much success. So I’ll take my chances with the arguably the best defensive front 7 in football against Zach Wilson and the Jets shaky O-line.
The Pick: Jets Team Total Under 16.5 (-105)
Giants at Bills +14.5 Total 44.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Map Play #3! This one is not for the faint of heart, but I’m willing to trust the system. The Bills had a huge divisional win over the Dolphins before a lackluster performance across the pond. Now they have a Primetime game against the lowly Giants before another divisional game in New England. Yes - the Patriots are terrible, but the Bills already have a divisional loss against the Jets, which makes every AFC East game that much more critical for them if they hope to fend off Miami.
It’s not just the scheduling spot here thats catching my eye. It’s how the Bills react to all the injuries on defense over the last few weeks. They lost a huge playmaker at every level on defense.
DaQuan Jones up front
Matt Milano at linebacker
Tre White at cornerback
The Giants have plenty of their own issues (injuries and more), and it appears everyone has (rightfully so) written them off this year. Make no mistake, they are terrible. But this is still a team that won a Playoff game last year. They are going down, but they won’t go down that easy. I’m betting on Daboll to get his revenge, certainly not with a win, but by coving a huge number and putting up a fight in his first trip back to Buffalo.
The Pick: Giants +14.5 (-110)
Commanders at Falcons -3 Total 42.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
The Commanders have given up 30+ in four straight games and young Desmond Ridder is coming off the best performance of his professional career.
The ol’ steak switcharoo.
Nothing, and we mean nothing - has been more humiliating to date than losing by 20 to the Bears in Primetime. That was a rough spot for the Commanders, but now they’ve got extra time to prepare as the Falcons still shake off the jet-lag from London. The line also feels like quite a bit of respect for Washington. Sure Atlanta has two losses, but none of them are against the fucking Bears at home.
The Commanders have lost 3 straight, and Ridder just had 329 yards in passing. This feels like the right time to buy low and sell high. Since every Falcons home game feels like it comes down to the wire, we’re buying the .5 here to get to a key number.
The Pick: Commanders +3 (-120)
Ravens at Titans (London) +4 Total 41
Jim Harbaugh is on a mission to not be embarrassed in London. Sunday night after the loss to the Steelers, the Ravens boarded a flight and flew directly to England. The last time the Ravens traveled overseas was 2017. They lost 44-7 to the Jaguars, and Harbaugh is determined not to let it happen again.
Lamar Jackson played incredibly well last week, but his WR’s had a terrible go of it.
The Ravens are starting to get healthy again after a slew of injuries early in the season. If the newly restored O-line can hold off the Titans pass rush, we love Lamar to exploit their weak secondary. It would just be too fitting for the Ravens WR’s to step up and redeem themselves.
The Pick: Ravens -4 (-115)
Colts at Jaguars -4.5 Total 46.5
After spending the last couple weeks in London where they thrived, the Jaguars are returning home. If we had something to compare it to we would, but the NFL has never sent a team overseas this long before. Every year the Jaguars get sent to London so eventually it becomes a big advantage because other teams are subject to the same inconveniences it creates.*
Case in point: Jags in London 2-0; Jags in Jacksonville 0-2.
Our only concern with this play is that Minshew is a bit too trendy of a backup, but we are willing to look the other way given the wave the Jags are riding back home.
*mental note for us to lean into it more next year.
The Pick: Colts +4.5 (-120)
Saints at Texans +1.5 Total 42.5
We still feel like the Texans aren’t getting enough respect. It’s likely from being one of the worst team in the NFL from 2020-23, totaling ten wins over that three year period. This pick is a little about them, but more about the Saints. Let’s take a quick look at their schedule to date against the spread:
Week 1 vs Titans: Win, didn’t cover
Week 2 at Panthers: Win, late Panthers TD to push
Week 3 at Packers: Loss, led 17-0 in the 4th Q
Week 4 vs Bucs: Loss, never in it
Week 5 at Patriots: Win, blowout
A very easy schedule, and yet they are only 3-2 and 1-4 ATS. This team is getting a lot of credit but a lot of bad performances were washed away from gamblers memory in the recency bias of the blowout win in New England.
Give us the scrappy Texans led by DeMeco Ryans in favor a Saints team we dare say is overvalued with a coach who is bound to be fired at the end of 2023 in Dennis Allen.
The Pick: Texans +1.5 (-105)
Seahawks at Bengals -2.5 Total 44.5
Bengals might be back. Yes, it was the Arizona Cardinals. Yes, they needed a pick-six and a James Conner injury to get it done, but Joe Burrow threw more touchdowns last week than he had his previous four games combined. He looked mobile in the pocket and was able to create some big plays to avoid the sacks. Nothing special, but certainly significantly more impressive than we had seen following his cafe injury.
We’re going out on a bit of a limb here, but the time to buy in on the Bengals is right now.
The Seahawks were a team we marked to fade this year and so far we’ve been way off. But things aren’t as bad as they seem.
Seattle won in Detroit where they always play well. The other two wins were over the depleted Giants team and and the lowly Panthers. Now, they come off a bye and to the naked eye should be ready to give the Bengals a tight game. Shoutout again to VSIN for the bye week stats:
We’re leaning into the Bengals again after a best bet spot last week.
The Pick: Bengals -2.5 (-118)
Cardinals at Rams -7 Total 48.5
After staring the year on a tear against the spread, the Cardinals are starting to fizzle. Their offense has been able to hang, but the defense has struggled to show the opposing attack and we don’t see any reason why the Rams can’t be next on the list to exploit them.
Call it a football brain play, but the Cardinals inability to create pressure is the perfect scenario for a weak Rams offensive line, immobile QB, and shifty WR’s who always create space at every level of the defense.
We thought about a ton of different ways to play this one, and we don’t hate any of them. Full game over 48.5, Rams -7, Rams TTO 27.5 - ultimately the back door terrifies us as the Cardinals have proven to be a live dog every second of the 2023 season. Matt Stafford masterclass inbound.
The Pick: Rams TTO 27.5 (-120)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Lions/Buccaneers Under 42.5
Jared Goff has shown to struggle when he’s not in a dome. We think this line feels a bit short to the Bucs, but we aren’t ready to jump on the Baker hype train.
We’d rather lean into the total since we see a gritty game between two teams who’s offenses are determined to establish the run and who’s defenses will be doing everything to stop it.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7
#15 Louisville at Pittsburgh +7.5
Hello letdown, meet look-ahead. This is a combo of two of our favorite spots to play in College Football. L’Ville has been red hot this year (5-0) and just upset Notre Dame at home. Next week they host ranked Duke. Sandwiched in between those two games is little ole Pittsburgh, who’s done nothing but stink this season. Jeff Brohms coaching and system are fitting in nicely with QB Jack Plummer, but the Cardinals offense has been struggling on the road. In their past two away games the Cardinals have only put 13 (at NC St) and 21 points (at Indiana). This total has dropped from 47.5 to 44.5, which means pro bettors are probably expecting the same. Rather than target the total, we’re going to take a shot on the overlooked home dog to keep it close.
The Pick: Pitt +7.5 (-110)
#9 USC at #21 Notre Dame -2.5
Yes yes, I am a Notre Dame fan, but this pick has nothing to do with bias and everything to do with the matchup. Do I think the line is weird? Not necessarily, although it always does stand out to us when a higher ranked team finds themselves as the underdog. But we think it’s for good reason. Despite Notre Dame’s offense not producing the past few weeks, their defense has been fantastic. Granted they ran out of gas in L’Ville, which was our main reason for playing the over last week (didn’t hit), but this is a game they get up for.
Let’s not kid ourselves - Caleb Williams and USC are going to find ways to score. The problem with USC has been their defense, and we don’t see that changing in South Bend.
Sam Hartman hasn’t been the QB everyone expected, and the offensive line has regressed. If there’s ever a get right game, it’s against the worst defense on a ranked team that just so happens to be your biggest rival. I have my doubts about HC Marcus Freeman and new OC Gerad Parker, but I’m going to trust that they feed Audric Estime early and often. Notre Dame doesn’t have the playmakers to light up the scoreboard, but they should establish the run, grind USC down, and keep the ball out of Caleb Williams hands.
The Pick: Notre Dame ML (-140)
Arizona at Washington St -7.5
As we’ve mentioned before, a letdown spot isn’t always just a team that won a big game. It’s also a team that played their ass off against a superior opponent and came up short. Example: We faded Boston College the week after they lost to FSU, and we cashed with Louisville.
This weeks letdown is Arizona after giving USC all they could handle and losing 43-41 in OT. In addition to that, we like Washington St to bounce back after a disappointing loss to UCLA. Wazzou QB Cam Ward has been excellent this year, but after an uncharacteristic four turnover performance, we think he’s going to get back on track against this worn out Arizona defense. Rack ‘em up Wazzu!
The Pick: Wash St -7.5 (-105)
#8 Oregon at #6 Washington -2.5
It’s very bizarre that this game is going to be played around noon Pacific time, but whatever. This is the best matchup of the weekend, and I gotta tell ya, there is NOTHING fun about fading this Washington offense and Michael Penix.
Our guy Steak is admittedly too invested in Washington and Penix Jr, so he is going to stay off this game. I on the other hand love the Ducks. Granted Oregon had a bit of a scare on the road against Texas Tech winning 38-30, I actually think that was a close call that benefits them.
The Ducks defense hasn’t necessarily faced the toughest of opponents, but they've only allowed 22 points in their last 3 games. Washington’s one key concern is that they have all new starters on the offensive line. Oregon HC Dan Lanning is a defensive minded coach from Georgia, and I’m betting on him to put together a gameplay that pressures Michael Penix Jr.
The Pick: Oregon +3 (-120)
Syracuse at Florida St -17.5
This is one of Steaks favorite plays. FSU faces ranked Duke next weekend, but to be totally honest, I’m not quite sure this counts as a look ahead. Syracuse started the season very well, but has suffered back to back losses against Clemson and UNC. They were 8.5 point dogs on the road in Chapel Hill last weekend, and the Tar Heels dominated that game from start to finish. This feels very contrarian, and you know every week we have to get a little nasty.
The Pick: Syracuse +17.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Jets TT Under 16.5 (-105)
Giants +14.5 (-110)
Commanders +3 (-120)
Ravens -4 (-110)
Colts +4.5 (-110)
Texans +1.5 (-110)
Bengals -2.5 (-110)
Rams TTO 27.5 (-120)
Lions/Bucs U 42.5 (-110)
CFB
Pitt +7.5 (-110)
Notre Dame ML (-140)
Washington St -7.5 (-105)
Oregon +3 (-120)
Syracuse +17.5 (-110)