NFL Week 7 & College Football Week 8
Expect the Unexpected
![Watch Sauce Gardner celebrate with cheesehead hat as Jets stun Packers at Lambeau [VIDEO] - DraftKings Nation](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HiAJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe15f8c1c-209c-462d-b429-981ec4fe3717_1200x800.jpeg "Watch Sauce Gardner celebrate with cheesehead hat as Jets stun Packers at Lambeau [VIDEO] - DraftKings Nation")
Before we jump into this weeks picks, let’s take a second to acknowledge one of the biggest trends of the 2022 season - the lack of scoring.
Betting the Under is 56-37-1 this year and an astounding 13-6 in Primetime.
Is this simply an anomaly? Or is there something driving the low point totals across the board? The 2022 season brought with it an absurd amount of change throughout the league:
10 teams got a new Head Coach
8 teams changed QBs
15 teams changed their offensive coordinator/play caller
All together there were 9 teams from 2021 who returned the same QB, HC, and Offensive Coordinator in 2022.
Two of them (Jets + Cowboys) had their starting QB miss significant time
Three of them lost an elite caliber WR (Cardinals-DHop, Titans-AJB, Chiefs-Tyreek).
Taking all these elements into account makes the profitability of Unders a little less shocking. We are big believers in a regression to the mean, and we expect it to come eventually. But the million-dollar question is when?
BYE weeks are the perfect opportunity for teams to take a moment and reassess some more fundamental issues and expand on their playbook. Hopefully, offenses can start to gain some momentum. But in sports betting, much like Wall Street, timing the market is borderline impossible (unless you’re Nancy Pelosi). With the first set of BYE’s happing last week, we’re not quite ready to say this is the time when the script flips and the Overs start to pour in…but we’re getting close! For the time being we’re going to pump the breaks on Unders, until we see some market correction.
Step aside Thunder-Under and hello Come on Over, Over!
And if you are subscribed - SHARE IT. We are closing in on 1,000 subscribers, which is pretty fucking cool (for us). Last year at this time we were just over 100. It’s been a ton of fun watching it grow, so THANK YOU!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 27-18-2 (+7.51 Units) — Swapped Steelers +8 to Over 45 & aborted Panthers last week
CFB: 32-23 (+4.89 Units)
Week 7
Chiefs @ 49ers +2.5 Total 48.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
No way Patrick Mahomes loses back-to-back games…right?
There aren’t many opportunities to get some of the best teams (any league/sport) in contrarian spots. We’ve done it twice this year in CFB with Bama and Georgia, and they both cashed. If you follow us on Twitter, you’d see that we bet the Bills against the Chiefs last weekend (not on our record). It’s a bit contradicting, as the Bills were the public play, but you have to pick your spots. Sometimes you just know the “better team” is going to win. We also faded the trend of Mahomes as an underdog, who was 7-0-1 till then.
Nobody is betting on the Niners this weekend. Why would they? Think about why the Chiefs make too much sense here. The Niners are coming back from a long two week road trip on the East Coast, just lost as a TD favorite to the Falcons, and now you’ve got a pissed of Mahomes. So again, it’s no surprise KC is getting 89% of the bets and 85% of the money. Yet, the line opened -2, we saw it get up as high as -3, and then there was immediate buyback on SF bringing it down to -2.5.
This is a full on contrarian spot to take the Niners. The public thinks Mahomes off a loss is value, but you know who else should be feared? Kyle Fucking Shanahan. Feast your eyes on a few of these trends:
Sign me up.
The Pick: Niners +2.5
Falcons @ Bengals -6 Total 47 (Greg Best Bet)
The Falcons have been an absolute Wagon against the spread, and everyone knows it.
To your average gambler this line is simply too many points, and the Falcons are going to cover (again). Hell, come Sunday, they’ll be trendy enough to start fielding some ML tickets. Unfortunately for Falcons backers, Cincinnati is the sharp play. The line recently went from -6 to -6.5 despite them receiving less than 50% of the bets. The Bengals offense is starting to find their groove after stumbling out of the gate, but the real story continues to be the Bengals 2H defense. They’ve been damn near lights out since the end of the 2021 season.
Mariota and Arthur Smith are in for a very rude awakening on Sunday. They’ve been perfect ATS, but they found the back door against Tampa and LA, and the Bengals are way too lights out in the second half to let that happen.
The Pick: Bengals -6.5
ANONYMOUS NFL INSIDER PICK OF THE WEEK
Browns @ Ravens -6.5 Total 46
The Manning Cast is back this week and hopefully to everyone's delight, so am I! I'll be certain to take a hiatus after I crash and burn this week, but what a start! Shame on the Degen for turning the lights off on my pick prior to kickoff, but I completely understand the rationale with the way that line was moving before kickoff. Alas, if you were picking up what I was putting down last week, Tom's tears and f-bombs were the path to your salvation and Sunday fulfillment.
Now, onto "what have you done for me lately."
On the list of disappointing starts to the season, the Baltimore Ravens have to be near the top. I've grown to respect and trust Harbaugh as a coach, but recent track records are starting to add up against that sentiment. All three losses were close and against good football teams, so we can forgive but we can't forget. I am not a smart man (thanks for the free line Forrest, Forrest Gump) and the Cleveland Browns are not a good football team. Notwithstanding, this match-up between the Browns and Ravens is rarely as simple as "this team is good or this team is bad." Sticking to the subjective for now, this game is more about what's at stake for both teams at the moment. The Ravens have to win games they are supposed to, especially after a 3-3 start and in the division, and the Browns are licking their wounds, as a coaching staff and otherwise, coming of last week's drubbing at the hands of a guy named Zappe (someone's gotta coin some "zap" related and copyrighted phrases for that guy). The Browns also typically get elevated emotionally to try and come into the Ravens building and steal a divisional win, if for no other reason than to stick it to Harbaugh and the city of Baltimore and they historically always play the Ravens close on the road - discounting the covid 2020 season where we can all happily blame Baker Mayfield for that outcome.
Vegas knows all of this though and even Bally's didn't lay a bigger number for the Ravens than 6.5 at home against a Browns team that just got ZAPPED (see what I did there?). Historical track records of close outcomes in this matchup, both teams having floundering moments already in 2022 and everything starts to align to pound the Browns and the points....
So give me the Ravens -6.5 and let's all sit back and watch the Ravens defense dictate the outcome of this game! Lamar will do it in the air more than on the ground this week but the Ravens defense will finally look like a unit befit of the AFC North and we'll all have a happy Sunday.
The Pick: Ravens -6.5
Lions @ Cowboys -7 Total 49
America’s lovable underdog meets Americas Team (of the 1990’s). Despite being one of the best teams against the spread, the Lions find themselves in a contrarian spot. Not too surprising, as the Cowboys are always a trendy pick for casual bettors.
We don’t typically like to talk X’s and O’s but its worth discussing when you’re trying to break down why a line might look a bit off. So let’s put on our football brain for a moment.
For starters there’s the obvious, the Cowboys should get a boost on offense. Good bye, sweet Cooper Rush. Yes, Dak is back and that’s the big story here. As you know we are big believers in selling good news, but the main thing we want to focus on is the Cowboys defense. Although they are excellent against the pass, they can certainly be exploited by a team who can run the ball. Coming off a Bye the Lions welcome D’Andre Swift back to the lineup. Another fun fact is that the Lions are 9-1 over the last ten years after a Bye. A bit kitschy, but fun. Let’s see what Dan Campbell can do after a bit of rest, when no one expects his Lions to roar.
The Bet: Lions +7
Steelers @ Dolphins Total 45
Hey kid, wanna see a dead body? Watch what Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle are about to do. For some unknown reason Tampa Bay refused to exploit a depleted Steelers secondary, and we think Miami won’t make the same mistake. Action is split in terms of bets, but Miami is seeing a significant amount more of the handle, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see this jump to -7.5 before kickoff. So, don’ t be afraid to jump in early on this one. Tua is back, but honestly it doesn’t matter. The Steelers just had their moment beating Tom Brady in his last game at Heinz (Acrisure) field. Miami has lost three in a row. Getting the Steelers and Mike Tomlin as a touchdown dog feels too easy right now, but we think the Fins pull away.
The Pick: Dolphins -7
Bookie Pick of the Week: The last thing we want to do is fade the Giants for a 3rd straight week, but Vegas is giving us no choice. Jacksonville as a favorite? What are these idiots out west doing?! “The Giants just beat the Packers and the Ravens outright - no chance they don’t cover in this spot”. Somehow the Gmen are 5-1 despite completing a league low (1) pass of 20 or more yards.
The Pick: Jaguars -3
Come on Over, Over! Seahawks @ Chargers Total 50.5
The highest total on the board is receiving 38% of the bets but 62% of the money. It’s the year of the under and everyone knows it. Both teams won ugly divisional games scoring 19 points last week. We like a shootout in LA. Tell ‘em Xtina!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 8
#14 Syracuse @ #8 Clemson -13.5 Total 49.5
The oddsmakers didn’t respect Clemson last week at FSU with a short spread, and they got burned. Quick correction from their end, as we now see the Vegas supercomputers giving TWO (!) touchdowns against a Syracuse that’s not only undefeated, but also 5-1 ATS. Good teams, win great teams cover. The books are making the Orange look quite juicy this weekend. Don’t fall for it!
The Pick: Clemson -13.5
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +3 Total 64.5
NIU is much better than their 2-5 record indicates, and sharps know it. This line opened NIU -1 against 4-3 Ohio on the road, and it quickly got bet up two full points. They’re seeing 59% of the bets, but 75% of the money. We love those low ticket/higher dollar situations in these under-the-radar games.
The Pick: NIU ML
UNLV @ Notre Dame -27 Total 47.5
Notre Dame just lost to quite possibly the worst Stanford team we’ve seen in our lifetime. That’s now twice the Irish have lost outright as double-digit home favorites. So here they are again, opening at -24.5 against a 4-3 UNLV team who seems to be headed in the wrong direction. The Irish are only getting 38% of the bets, and why wouldn’t they? Nobody trusts this team anymore, and this is a fuck ton of points. However, they are getting hit HARD with the money. Now up 2.5 points, we are following this contrarian line move.
The Pick: ND -27
#7 Ole Miss @ LSU -1.5 Total 66.5
What gets the Degenerate more excited than an unranked favorite against a ranked opponent? How about when they go dog → fav. YUM! LSU opened +1 and quickly got bet up to -1.5. Now, it must be said, there is always a “fake sharp” spot every weekend. A few of our respected bettors think this is the one…but not us. The reason being is that LSU has already been in their fake sharp spot just two weeks ago at home vs Tennessee. They were +3, not trendy, and got their ass kicked.
The Pick: LSU ML
Purdue @ Wisconsin -2.5 Total 51.5
You know who’s hot? Purdue. You know who’s not? Wisconsin. So why is Wisconsin, after losing outright to Michigan State, opening as a -1.5 point favorite and seeing a line move in their favor? Riddle me that! The Boilermakers are a trendy dog after 3 straight wins that include @ Minnesota and @ Maryland. What do we do with trendy dogs? Fade them!
The Pick: Wisconsin ML
FIU @ Charlotte -14.5 Total 63.5
FIU is 2-4, but they are fucking terrible. You know who else is bad? 1-6 Charlotte. Yet, this team is favored by 14.5?! And even better - the oddsmakers are giving you the hook with the team that has the better record. I don’t think Charlotte should be favored by this much on their BYE week.
The Pick: Charlotte -14.5
Arizona St @ Stanford -2.5 Total 53.5
Two words for this one: Letdown Spot. As we mentioned in our ND write up, Stanford just played their Super Bowl and beat the Irish in South Bend. You think they’re getting up for this game against a 2-4 Arizona State team? We don’t. Stanford is getting 64% of the bets, yet opened -3 and the line is now down to -2.5. Hmmm…
The Pick: Arizona St +2.5
#17 Kansas St @ #8 TCU -3.5 Total 54.5
We’ve been on the right side of TCU more than we expected this season. Unfortunately, we now have to zag. The Frogs opened -4.5 and are now sitting at -3.5. The total has also moved down significantly from the 58 opener to now 54.5. Sources tell us they expect some shitty weather with high winds. As you know, the total trending towards the under always has us leaning towards the dog. Football brain says this also gives an advantage to a run first team like K St, and could hamper TCU’s elite passing attack. It would appear the sharps smell blood, as K State is only getting 45% of the bets but 75% of the money.
The Pick: Kansas St +3.5
SDSU @ Nevada +7 Total 36
One of the lowest totals we’ve seen on the West Coast in quite some time. When you think of late night games, you think of points and the public chasing. What does the public love? Favorites and Overs. Nothing more tempting than a total at 36. Don’t fall for it - these teams are bad, and the oddsmakers know it. The line is also trending towards the dog, as Nevada went +8.5 to +7.
The Pick: Under 36
Jovan’s Best Bet (@jovan_deeb)
Washington @ Cal +7.5 Total 55.5
The phrase buy-low spot is thrown around a lot, but I don’t know any bet that is the epitome of this than taking the Golden Bears this week. Last week they lost to one of the worst teams in FBS in Colorado while only mustering up a single touchdown against the defense that was giving up 43 PPG prior. With how bad their offense and team as a whole has been, Cal only getting 7.5 points is very strange. So what better of a matchup to get an offense right than the horrid Washington defense. Cal has scored 59 points in their 4 FBS games excluding Arizona, who is a defense equally as terrible as Washington’s. In that game, Cal dropped 49 points with their hidden gem Jaydn Ott running for 274 and 3 touchdowns. I expect a similar performance against this Washington defense that has the physicality of a 3rd grade pee wee team and whose rotating cast of nine starting DBs in the secondary can’t guard a parked car.
Cal’s offense should be able to do whatever they want, but their defense has a decent matchup too. They are far from incompetent on that side of the ball and do a great job of limiting explosive plays and keeping the offense in front of them. That should make Penix and the Husky offense who is used to living off of chunk plays a bit uncomfortable. To back that up, Washington’s team total currently sits at 33.5, a number they’ve gone under only once in seven games. Give me Cal to keep this one within a touchdown, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t sprinkling on the ML at +245.
The Pick: Cal +7.5
RECAP:
NFL
49ers +3
Bengals -6.5
Ravens -6.5
Lions +7
Dolphins -7
Jaguars -3
Chargers/Seahawks OVER 50.5
CFB
Clemson -13.5
NIU ML (-145)
Notre Dame -27
LSU ML -135
Wisconsin ML (-130)
Charlotte -14.5
Arizona St +2.5
Kansas St +3.5
SDSU/Nevada UNDER 36
Cal +7.5