NFL Week 7 & College Football Week 8
Marching On
We went big in the NFL last week with 9 plays, and it paid off as we went 6-3. That’s an uncharacteristic amount of plays for us, but we felt we’re reading the NFL board quite well so had to lean into it. College on the other hand, has been a grind. We’re making progress after the 2-7 start in week 1, but still can’t seem to get hot.
We’ll be scaling back a bit in the NFL this week. At first glance, we thought we loved it again, but upon further review it feels like it’s loaded with land mines. Tread lightly.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 22-12 (+7.91 Units)
CFB: 21-23-2 (-4.17 Units)
NFL WEEK 7
Lions at Ravens -3 Total 43.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Can we all agree that the Detroit Lions are pretty fucking cool? As a Bucs fan, I actually got excited about last weeks game, and didn’t enjoy a second of it. The Lions play a style of football that makes it miserable for the opponent. Stout defense and efficient offense. I mean the Lions just refuse to make mistakes with the football, and it feels like Jared Goff always knows who’s open. I give them a ton of credit, and was just about to buy some stock in them…until I saw their next opponent.
Baltimore is back from their London trip, and know the narrative here is to fade teams in this spot with no rest. However, those teams have yet to lose (3-0) this season. The Ravens dominated the Titans, but were absolutely atrocious in the red-zone. It was criminal that we had to sweat the spread, but overall, I liked what I saw from their offense for 3 quarters. It’s not secret that mobile quarterbacks have given the Lions fits in the past, as their fans have been talking about it all week. None better than LJ.
Just as I felt I was perhaps being a prisoner of the moment with the Detroit love, I took a step back and looked at their last few opponents. These are the QB’s they’ve played in the last four weeks:
Desmond Ridder
Jordan Love
Andy Dalton
Baker Mayfield
Not taking anything away from their 5-1 record, but those QBs’ are simply not that good. I’ll pay to found out just how legit this Lions team is in a back-to-back road game against arguably the best mobile QB in the league.
The Pick: Ravens -3 (-105)
Chargers at Chiefs +5.5 Total 43.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
I consider myself to have been a pioneer on the Brandon Staley hate train. Early on I recognized this guy was given the blessing of a talented QB on a rookie contract and got absolutely nothing out of it. NFL coaches would kill for this opportunity and he squandered it, even worse the Chargers continue to let him do it by not firing him last year… or the year before. But that’s a rant for another time. My point is he is one of the worst coaches in terms of the talent he has and what he’s been able to get out of it.
Now the whispers are starting around Justin Herbert…
Did he overachieve in his first few years? Is he overrated? A fugazzi? It’s a fair question given the Chargers offensive output this year, but offensive numbers are down across the board in the NFL and he’s still trying to get in sync with new OC Kellen Moore (his third OC in four years). I’m not here to predict his future, but I am here to say now is the time to buy stock in Herbert.
The Chargers have been building their team to beat their biggest division rival and juggernaut, the Kansas City Chiefs. A big reason for their success is safety Derwin James and his ability to cover Taylor Swift’s bf (formerly known as Travis Kelce).
In the Herbert era these teams have faced off a total of six times.
They won two
They lost two by a field goal
They lost the other two in overtime.
This is just one of those divisional rivalries that always seem to be a battle and I’d like to jump in now before the Chiefs solve their problems at the wide receiver spot.
Chargers have looked defunct, but they are a bend don’t break team. As bad as Staley is this team is loaded with talent and at the end of the year they are going to be in the hunt for a playoff spot. They will lose some games they should win, and they will win some games they should lose. It’s just the reality of this program. I’m betting on the latter this weekend.
The Pick: Chargers +5.5 (-110)
Commanders at Giants +3 Total 37.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
One of the grossest lines I saw when opening up my FanDuel account on Monday morning, so it’s no wonder that an hour later our group text read:
Steak: I love the Giants
Maybe the Giants left it all on the field in Daboll’s revenge against the Bills. But maybe… just maybe they have a little left in the tank against their long time rival Washington Redskins, Football Team, Commanders.
The line has moved a little bit in the Commanders favor, but thats because every press conference the Giants announce they’ve lost another starter.
I mean look at this:
Broken, battered, and bruised - but the G-men find a way.
The Pick: Giants +3 (-115)
Steelers at Rams +3 Total 43.5
The '“Fire Matt Canada” chants got a week off* but they are ready to resume as the Steelers head to LA for what should be a home game on the road. As bad as they have looked it’s amazing the Steelers sit at 3-2. Call it overrated, call it lucky, call it whatever you want. When a defense led by TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith can consistently create pressure it presents the opportunity to stay in games long enough for the offense to make one play per game. Now, the Steelers get a week of rest to get healthy and travel to LA. Not all bye weeks are the same, but Pittsburgh is a club we have our eye on out of their break:
We wouldn’t go as far to say that the Rams are over performing, but we’ve seen defenses who can create pressure without blitzing have their success (Eagles, Rams, Bengals). McVay is a guru on the offensive side of the ball but it’s safe to say he has some distraction in his personal life and might even miss the game on Sunday (good news).
We’ll take the side of Tomlin off the bye and gamble that the pass rush can disrupt Stafford just enough to make this a dog fight.
The Pick: Steelers +3 (-110)
*they actually still chanted it, but just at a Penguins game for a change
Dolphins at Eagles -2.5 Total 51.5
This is one of the rare spots where you get one of the best teams in a contrarian spot. Philly is coming off a loss to the lowly NY Jets and their doubters are puffing up their chests again. The Jets defense is one of the best in the league and it was able to stop the Eagles at what they do best: run the ball down your throat.
Miami has a solid D, but it’s a tier below (at least) where the Jets are and a total of 50+ is telling us that both teams find success moving the ball. The difference is that the Eagles will be able to play to their strength, run the ball, drain the clock, and (most importantly) weather the storm of a few deep Tyreek/Waddle bombs that are bound to happen.
The Pick: Eagles ML (-140)
Come on Over, Over: Packers at Broncos Total 45
The first one of the year: Two bad defenses! Two worse offenses!
One of the more annoying narratives (see rant below) is that Russ is actually cooking but the rest of the Broncos team is letting him down. Yes - his numbers are good, but only when he’s playing bad defenses or the Broncos are out of contention. We lean Packers, but we’d rather lean on the side of fireworks for this one.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 8
UCF at Oklahoma -17.5
This one is a Steak special with a hint of letdown. Oklahoma is off a bye, so it’s not a prime spot for the Sooners to potentially come out flat after their big Texas win. However, Steak is still attacking it, and so have the sharps. Oklahoma opened -19 and money has come in on the Knights. We are late to the party (as usual) but still playing it as 17.5 is close enough to a “key number” in our opinion. OU is 6-0 ATS and UCF just got their ass kicked by 29 points to Kansas. I do agree the line feels a bit short. Another thing I like is both teams are off a bye, so I will perhaps be targeting the 1H under as well.
The Pick: UCF +17.5
Mississippi St at Arkansas -7
In my opinion, Arkansas is a dead team walking. They have just gone through the gauntlet of an SEC schedule having played at LSU, Texas A&M on a neutral, at Ole Miss then at Alabama. Granted they went 0-4 in that stretch, the Hogs did manage to go 3-1 ATS. Respect! But they’re out of gas, and Mississippi St is fresh off a BYE week after a cupcake CMU game where they won 41-28. As I’ve mentioned, I don’t often bet on bye weeks as an advantage to college teams, but I am here because of how brutal Arkansas’ schedule has been with the opponents and travel. Give me rest > rust.
The Pick: Mississippi St +7
North Texas at Tulane -20
We’re giving Tulane one more fucking shot. We last bet on them two weeks ago at home against UAB. They wanted to cover that game so bad, but got off to too poor of a start and couldn’t get there. Last week they were on the road in a fairly sharp spot in Memphis. After trailing 21-10, they stormed back to cover the 4 point spread winning 31-21. Thats two weeks in a row Tulane has played with bettors emotions, and I feel like this is a spot where nobody wants them, yet the line is telling. The Green Wave feels like they are a volcano about to explode, and I want to be on the ferry taking pictures in my Hawaiian shirt.
The Pick: Tulane -20
Minnesota at Iowa -3.5
This game has a total of 31.5, one of the lowest I’ve ever seen in my life. Iowa is 6-1 but are they a good 6-1? I’d have to say no. This very well could be a “prove it” game where they blow the doors off their opponent, but I don’t see it. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS on the year. I have the Gophers under win total and Iowas over win total. Normally I wouldn’t get involved with this matchup as I’m already invested, but I can’ help myself. I want to bet on bozo PJ Fleck because I think their disgusting style of football matches up well with Iowa. I mean the Hawkeyes only beat Purdue at home by 6 points and Purdue is BAD. At least Minnesota has some experience on the road against actual good teams (North Carolina). The line has moved significantly as they opened a 6 point dog, but we’re jumping anyways.
The Pick: Minnesota +3.5
Oklahoma St at West Virginia -3.5
West Virginia was staring 5-1 in the face until they lost on a Hail Mary in Houston last week. Now they’re back home after two road games to face an Oklahoma St team that appears to have some life. Which is unfortunate, as I have the Cowboys under win total and thought we were in great shape. OK St beat K St as 11.5 point underdogs, and then just beat Kansas. I have to tip my cap to coach Mike Gundy, but I think the party is over. This West Virginia team might be somewhat legit, and I like them in this spot with two extra days of rest and a bad taste in their mouth.
The Pick: WVU -3.5
South Carolina at #20 Missouri -7.5
The market has moved against us here, as Missouri went from -7 to -7.5 yesterday, but we’ll buy low and get the hook on a key number with the Cocks. I don’t think South Carolina is very good, and their record (2-4) shows it. I respect coach Shane Beamer, but I do not like QB Spencer Rattler. Feel very torn about betting on this team as I don’t care for them to succeed, but this feels like an inflated number with Missouri, who’s now ranked after beating Kentucky on the road. Big win for the Tigers, be a real shame if the Cocks ended the party before it started…real shame!
The Pick: South Carolina +7.5
#14 Utah at #16 USC -7
Sharps love the Trojans this week, and we agree. USC opened -5.5 and is now sitting at a touchdown. We respect Utah coach Kyle Wittingham, but this offense is very sluggish without QB Cam Rising. The run game is solid, and they just ran for 300+ yards on Cal last week, but we don’t see them being able to go blow for blow against USC’s offense and a pissed off Caleb Williams. In Utahs two road games this year they scored 7 points at Oregon St, and 20 at Baylor - but 14 of those points game in the last two minutes of the game. Yes, USC defense is awful, but they weren’t all that bad in last weeks loss against Notre Dame. It did them no favors that the offense had 5 turnovers and allowed a special teams touchdown. Simply put, USC is going to score, and I don’t think Utah will be able to match.
The Pick: USC -7
RECAP:
NFL
Ravens (-105)
Chargers +5.5 (-110)
Giants +3 (-110)
Steelers +3 (+100)
Giants +3 (-115)
GB/DEN Over 45 (-110)
CFB
UCF +17.5 (-110)
Mississippi St +7 (-110)
Tulane -20 (-110)
Minnesota +3.5 (-110)
WVU -3.5 (-110)
South Carolina +7.5 (-110)
USC -7 (-110)