NFL Week 8 & College Football Week 9
Bye Bye, BYE
Another week of stacking units in the NFL, and another week of grinding out the college slate. We’d normally accept if we’re making the wrong plays, but can’t say we regret too many of the decisions. Unfortunately this just doesn’t feel like our year, but we’ve got a few weeks to turn it around.
For some completely unknown reason there are no byes this week in the NFL. Now, just because there’s a full slate of games doesn’t mean we’re going crazy. We have our spots, we’ll take our shots. Bob and weave as we approach the midseason mark.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 26-14 (+9.64 Units)
CFB: 24-27-2 (-5.44 Units)
NFL WEEK 8
Chiefs at Broncos +7.5 Total 47.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
This feels like getting your prostate checked - you don’t want to do it, but you have to do it. The Chiefs have looked vulnerable at times, but they have yet to slip up after their week 1 loss to Detroit. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they’ve covered in all six as well. I tweeted last week that it’s probably inevitable they’re going to win the Super Bowl (again).
So with all that said, why are we fading Kansas City? Because we like pain. These are the types of positions you have to put yourself in when betting the NFL. Call it gross, contrarian, hazmat, stupid…whatever. Nobody wants to bet the Broncos, and nobody wants to bet against the Chiefs. These teams played just two weeks ago (hate when the NFL does this) and KC won 19-8, but the score made it look much closer than it actually was. The Chiefs went up and down the field, but settled for field goals. Denvers offense got nothing going until a late touchdown at 2 PT conversion.
Look, you know I am President and CEO of the Anti Russell Wilson Club, but dare I say this team possibly got a bit of a spark after beating the Packers last week? “No, the Packers are bad” okay that’s a very valid point. You’re right I have nothing smart to say and will probably regret this decision.
So far this year teams returning from the London Game has not been a problem, it’s been the week before where they have struggled.
Returning from London: 4-0
Before London: 1-4
We are well aware that the Chiefs have beat the Broncos a whopping 16 straight times, but a lookahead to a game in Germany might be just enough for the Chiefs to slip up at altitude.
The Pick: Broncos +7.5 (-120)
Rams at Cowboys -6.5 Total 45.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
With the Cowboys coming off a bye, the first thing I wanted to look into was how they fared in this situation in previous years. Given the coaching gurus in recent history of Jason Garrett and Mike McCarthy I assumed a sub-par performance, yet I was certainly surprised…
Covering at +70% off a bye?! Not at all what I expected. Okay D, you have my attention.
Matt Stafford looked off last week. Nacua and Kupp appeared to be open on every play last week against a weak Steelers secondary, yet the Rams never seemed to be able to capitalize. The opportunities were there, but the results weren’t. Can’t quite put my finger on it yet, but something was amiss and a ferocious Cowboys D is not the place for a struggling offense to find their footing.
On paper the Rams appear to be one of the better teams against the spread this year at 4-2-1, but let’s dig a little deeper.
3-0 ATS in divisional games
1-2-1 ATS in games outside of the NFC West (the lone cover came over the Colts in OT)
Paraphrasing an early-season rant from Adam Chernoff of RAS here:
McVay is a great coach, but this team is lacking in talent. It makes sense that he’s able to scheme and put together an effective plan against the teams he is most familiar with, yet struggle outside of that.
This is exactly what we are seeing and I’m going to lean into it.
Dallas is quietly riding a 10 game win streak at home where they haven’t lost since Week 1 of 2022 against Tom Brady.
The Pick: Cowboys -6.5 (-105)
Vikings at Packers +1.5 Total 41.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
The Vikings clawed back from the dead with a primetime win over the 49ers. Green Bay just buried themselves deeper with an ugly loss on the road to the Broncos. Guess which side Steak is on?
As bad as the Packers have looked there are still faint reasons for hope, but they have got to start moving the ball early on in games.
Last week everyone was quick to call the Vikings frauds. We didn’t disagree, but it was too obvious to take San Fran. Steak strikes when there’s a bit of value after a big win and everyone starts to buy-in.
The Pick: Packers +1.5 (-105)
Texans at Panthers +3.5 Total 43.5
Who’s excited to bet on the only winless team in the NFL?
Struggling veteran head coach - Check
1st overall draft pick that might be a bust - Check
A banged up defense - Check
This one is gonna be fun! But simply put - it’s game that has to be played. Hold your nose, close your eyes, cash your ticket.
Both of these teams are coming off a bye but they entered the break on two entirely different trajectories. The Texans were building momentum, winning 3 of 4, starting to feel like they can be a contender every week. CJ Stroud appears to offer a promising future and DeMeco Ryans is one of the favorites for coach of the year. The Panthers however, are reeling. Nothing has gone their way out the gate, the only game they even covered (they pushed) was on a late backdoor TD against the Saints.
Sometimes the bye week can throw off the rhythm when you’re hot and sometimes it’s the breath of fresh air when you’re drowning - we think this game is a rare opportunity for both.
The Pick: Panthers +3.5 (-120)
Browns at Seahawks -3.5 Total
Normally we wouldn’t be excited to fade PJ Walker and the Cleveland Browns, but somehow Walker has back to back wins. One as a starter, and the other in relief. We think his luck is about to run out as he travels west to one of the most hostile environments in the NFL against a defense that’s really coming together.
We don’t expect the Seahawks to light up the scoreboard against this defense (the total of 36.5 should tell you as much) but if Geno can minimize his mistakes the Seahawks should coast in this spot.
The Pick: Seahawks -3.5 (-115)
Come on Over, Over: Ravens at Cardinals Total 44.5
Kyler Murray is back on the practice field which means this could be Josh Dobbs last stand. Pair that with a Ravens offense that is fully healthy, and we smell points!
With all the low totals this week, seeing a flailing Cardinals offense against a Ravens D that just shut down the Lions has us buying in for an over.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9
Houston at Kansas St -17.5
Kansas St is a team I was very high on going into the season and chose to invest in. I’m on their over win total and a small sprinkle on QB Will Howard to win the Heisman (not hitting). They’re 5-2 on the year - one loss having been to Missouri on a 62 yard walk-off field goal, and the other as a 11.5 point favorite on the road in Ok St. I’ve felt this team was talented, but what I value most is the coaching staff in HC Chris Klieman and OC Collin Klein. Their response to the Oklahoma St loss was going to tell me if my bet was an early loser, as this Wildcat team could have easily packed it in and started spiraling. Thankfully, that did not happen. K-State beat Texas Tech 38-21, and followed it up with a 41-3 home win against TCU. Moral of the story - K-State got their shit together, and I feel they continue to build on that recent success, especially against a Houston team who just played their Super Bowl against Texas and came up just short.
The Pick: Kansas St -17.5
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan +2.5
This is a spot we like to target in any sport. A team with the worse record is the favorite. It feels like “the wrong team is favored”. Not only is WMU 2-5 compared to EMU being 4-4, but WMU is 0-5 on the road and EMU is 4-0 at home. Make it make sense! I was checking for injury news but there is nothing to report. EMU has also covered four straight so it’s not like they’ve burned bettors recently. I’m going with what appears to be the worse team, because Vegas is telling us they’re the better team.
The Pick: WMU -2.5
BYU at Texas -18.5
I’m sick and tired of pretending like BYU is good. They’re tough, they’re always tough, but enough of Kedon Slovis. This guy can’t keep getting away with it (insert Breaking Bad meme). Now listen, I thanked the Mormon’s for their service against Arkansas a few weeks back, but I’ve had enough of this ticky-tacky bullshit. He’s thrown for less than 200 yards in 4/7 games this season, including two straight. Yet they find a way to win games. I’m not banking on Texas to cover a big number (although I think they do), but I am absolutely investing in their grown man defense against this little twerp, Slovis. I also think the Longhorns step up their play with news that QB Quinn Ewers is expected to miss some time with an injury. Texas just let Houston hang around and put up 400 yards of offense. Time to bounce back.
The Pick: BYU TT U 15.5
Michigan St at Minnesota -7
This is the kind of bet you don’t tell your friends and family about. Look, I try to instill more discipline as a sports bettor in my old age, and want to stop betting on bad teams late in the season. But fuck man…the Gophers can't be trusted as 7 point favorites. I don’t care how bad Michigan State is, Minnesota also stinks and is coming off a big win against Iowa. Letdown spot meets hazmat play. GULP.
The Pick: Michigan St +7
Mississippi St at Auburn -6.5
This Auburn team is not very good, but let me tell you a secret…Mississippi St is worse. Like, way worse. I only know this because I had them last week against Arkansas and watched most of the game. That pick was more about fading Arkansas as a dead team than it was backing the Bulldogs. Miss St only gained 10 first downs and put up 200 yards of offense. Now they’ve got back to back SEC road games, and this is a prime spot I want to fade what I feel is a really bad football team.
The Pick: Auburn -6.5
Duke at Louisville -4.5
QB Riley Leonard eventually played for the Blue Devils last weekend. They hung with FSU for 3 quarters until running out of gas and losing 38-20. Leonard did not play well only going 7/16, but the defense showed up for most of the game. Typically I wouldn’t want to go near Duke the week after they just played their ass off against a top ranked team, but I am interested in fading Louisville. The Cardinals upset ND and followed it up with an ugly loss against a bad Pittsburgh team. Then they just had their bye week, and you know how we feel about bye weeks. I think the Cardinals come out slow and find out the hard way that this Duke defense is one of the best they’ll see all year.
The Pick: Duke +4.5
Ohio St at Wisconsin +14.5
I was on Wisconsin last week, and they came through in the sweatiest of fashions. My reason then is the same reason now - I think this team might be just fine with their backup QB as opposed to Mordecai. Not to mention I’m okay with fading Ohio St after their big win against Penn St. Granted, I do respect the Buckeyes defense and expect them to make life tough on the Badgers offense, but I don’t fear Kyle McCord just yet. And honestly, I think the Badgers D is much better than people give them credit for. Yes Ohio States wide receivers scare the piss out of me, but I’ll take the home dog here, even if it’s bait, as i expect a low scoring tight game.
The Pick: Wisconsin +14.5
RECAP:
NFL
Broncos +7.5 (-120)
Cowboys -6.5 (-105)
Packers +1.5 (-105)
Panthers +3.5 (-120)
Seahawks -3.5 (-115)
Ravens/Cardinals Over 44.5 (-110)
CFB
Kansas St -17.5 (-110)
WMU -2.5 (-110)
BYU TT U 15.5 (-110)
Michigan St +7 (-110)
Auburn -6.5 (-110)
Duke +4.5 (-110)
Wisconsin +14.5 (-110)