NFL Week 8 & College Football Week 9
Witching Hour
Last week was loaded with pain. A couple of close calls, and a couple of misreads. Lessons were learned - onward!
The Witching Hour is known as the last hour of the early slate. The term is typically used when your bets are about to wrong after they’ve looked right all day. This has been the case two weeks in a row for our NFL picks. Nevertheless, it must be reiterated that we stay the course. Bounces will not always go your way, but everything is cyclical. You don’t abandon your systems or change your betting style.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 29-23-2 (+4.33 Units)
CFB: 37-28 (+4.13 Units)
WEEK 8
Steelers @ Eagles +10.5 Total 43.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
“A bad decision is better than indecision” - Tony Soprano
With Mitch Trubisky as the starter, this Steelers offense was so boring it made us start to hate football. Has Kenny Pickett been good? Absolutely not. But at least he’s taking some shots down the field and looking to make throws that Mitch wouldn’t. This is all part of the growing pains with a young QB.
This is not a great spot for the Steelers. Rest wise, they’re coming off a MNF loss at Miami, and the Eagles are coming off their BYE week. So why are we looking to back one of the worst teams in the league against one of, if not THE best team in the league? Because the city of Philadelphia is riding just a little too high.
The Phillies play game one of the World Series today. The Eagles are the leagues last remaining undefeated team. The Sixers…well I don’t know what the fuck is going on there, but if Doc gets fired then perhaps it’s addition by subtraction.
Most bettors tend to target a team coming off a week rest. I don’t have the data to show whether it’s profitable or not, but we heard a pretty interesting point made by Matt Youmans on VSIN. A BYE week for a team that’s struggling and needs to get right (Raiders) is far more beneficial than teams who are playing great football and perhaps overachieving. In this case, it becomes more like an NBA team calling a timeout when their opponent is on a scoring run.
It’s a lot of points for a storied franchise, but we think the Eagles are already thinking Super Bowl, as the city is preparing to host a championship series. We aren’t crowning them just yet…
The Pick: Steelers +10.5
Bears @ Cowboys -9.5 Total 42.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
June 8th, 1984. One of the most iconic horror movies of all time is released. The premise is simple… an adorable little creature, Gizmo, is purchased for a young boy as a pet. It comes with a few warnings. Primarily - if Gizmo gets wet, he will morph into an evil, violent, chaotic Gremlin.
Justin Fields is a modern-day Gizmo. Cute, cuddly, and non-threatening in most situations. But add a torrential downpour and he becomes an outright monster feasting on broken plays.
The bad news for Bears fans is that if it does rain in Dallas on Sunday, the roof will be closed. This game is cut and paste from earlier this season where the Bears shocked the NFL by beating the 49ers in Week 1. The following week they became public dogs, and promptly got smoked by the Packers in Week 2.
Week over week the Cowboys are one of the most publicly bet teams. Call it the “America’s Team” bias. Same thing applies for the Dodgers, Yankees, Alabama, etc. Seeing Dallas in a contrarian spot should at the very least catch your eye. Seeing the Cowboys as sharp should have you ready to empty your wallet (responsibly). And that’s where we find ourselves on Sunday.
Dallas is getting 37% of the bets and 62% of the money. Sure, Dak is back, but their defense if the real story, and they’re ready to erase any momentum Chicago has picked up. 9.5 is simply too much for your typical gambler, which is why I’m all over it.
The Pick: Cowboys -9.5
ANONYMOUS NFL INSIDER PICK OF THE WEEK
Niners @ Rams +1.5 Total 42.5
Time for redemption this week and this one is a walk in the park.
Yes, the 49ers lost BADLY to the Chiefs last week, after previously losing badly to the Falcons (for what it's worth, I was high on the Falcons being a much better football team this year and I'm guessing Artie Blank gave a special cash incentivized pump up speech to his coaching staff and players related to wanting them to beat Kyle Shanahan that week). However, the Chiefs are a top 2 team in football and the last two losses were on the heels of having dominated in their prior two games. Now they've got a full work week with their shiny new RB, Shanahan always calls a great game plan against McVay (SF has won 6 of the last 7 Shanahan vs McVay regular season matchups), they already decimated the Rams only a few short weeks ago and playing in LA will be roughly the equivalent of playing at home in front of the SF faithful, because that's primarily who will be filling the seats at SoFi.
So then why on God's green earth are they only favored by 1.5? The Rams look lifeless the prior 4 weeks. They get zero credit for beating the Panthers week 6, as the Dillon Panthers would have beat the Carolina Panthers that week. Sure they are coming off the bye, but Stafford hasn't been effective all year, the running game is a mess, Cam Akers wants control of the offensive play calling duties and McVay is spending more time taping Campbell's Chunky Soup commercials than winning football games nowadays.
Time to slam the Niners, right?!?!?
Wrong. This line is off and it's for a reason. McVay will be bathing in chunky soup post game.
The Pick: Rams +1.5
Bengals @ Browns +3 Total 46.5
Quick Head Coach chat! Going from Shanahan/McVay to Stefanski/Taylor is exactly like going from California to Ohio. There’s quite a similar situation as to whats happening out west in the mid-west between the coaches of these divisional opponents. It’s just that no one cares because they aren’t as pretty or as talented of offensive minds.
Stefanski plays the role of Shanahan going 4-0 in his career vs. Zac Taylor. That’s right - despite going to the Super Bowl, the Bengals still found a way to get swept by the Browns last year, losing to Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum (Week 18 meaningless game). Ok - coaching chat over. Advantage Stefanski. Now let’s look at some trends.
These teams are headed in opposite directions:
Cincinnati won 4 of their last 5
Cincinatti 5-0 ATS in last 5
Cleveland lost 4 in a row
Which should only make you question why Cincy is such a short favorite. Contrarian play through and through, as the money and the public are backing the Bengals. But whats really catching our eye is that this line is standing firm at +3.
The Pick: Browns +3
Bookie Pick of the Week: Titans @ Texans +2.5 Total 40.5
Our guy’s on the scariest line of the week for Halloween. You don’t have to tail it, but just remember…
“All that money’s good for nothing if you scared” - Black Thought
The Titans look “free”. You know that, I know that, 90% of the Public knows that. Guess someone forgot to tell Las Vegas.
The Pick: Texans +2.5
Come on Over, Over: Dolphins @ Lions Total 51.5
The highest total on the board? The Lions put up 6 points TOTAL in their last two games. The Dolphins have gone over 21 point once this year. Yet in the “Year of the Under” this game not only opens at 50, it’s getting bet up. All aboard the over express.
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Giants Seahawks U44.5
The Seahawks defense can be exploited by the pass. The problem is the Giants only have two 20+ receptions on the season. Daboll has a way of grinding the game down, and thats exactly what a total under 45 is telling us. It’s borderline impossible to have a tougher travel than the Giants over the last month. London, New York, Jacksonville, and now Seattle. The Thunder Under is back!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9
Notre Dame @ #18 Syracuse -2.5 Total 47.5
Syracuse just suffered their first defeat, yet still covered the spread. The oddsmakers gave them too many points and the public cashed. So despite recording an L, they’re still treating public bettors well, which is why nobody is jumping off the Orange train just yet. Cuse is seeing 74% of the bets as a short home favorite against unranked Notre Dame. The Irish under Brian Kelly would thrive in these situations, and so far under Marcus Freeman, they’ve continued to do so.
ND covered in week 1 as a 17 point dog @ Ohio State, and won outright as a short dog @ ranked UNC. The Irish are one of those teams that the public fails to realize plays better on the road and as an underdog.
The Pick: Notre Dame +2.5
Arkansas @ Auburn +3.5 Total 62.5
There is absolutely nothing fun about betting on Auburn. We’ve had some friendly people who are fans warn us that this is the worst team they’ve seen in their life. We’ve been stubborn and got burned. But what we always preach is that you should bend but don’t break when it comes to betting a team (depending on the spot). This is one that screams War Eagle. After starting the season 2-5 (3-4 ATS), nobody wants to bet on this team. They’re currently +3.5 at home against Arkansas, and the Razorbacks are getting over 70% of the bets. But…the line isn’t moving. As we say - trust your systems. This is a line freeze with a non-trendy home dog. Auburn is getting 28% of the bets, but 57% of the money according to VSIN.com/splits. Let’s bend once more!
The Pick: Auburn +3.5
#19 Illinois @ Nebraska +7.5 Total 50.5
Nothing about the line or betting splits has us liking Nebraska here. This is a rare football brain play from The Degenerate. Both teams are coming off a BYE, but we don’t always thinks this is beneficial to the “better” team (as per our Steelers pick). Illinois proved us wrong and upset Minnesota two weeks ago. They’re now 6-1 on the year and 5-2 ATS. I’m a believer that they’re actually a good team, but I’m not ready to lay a TD on the road with them. Nebraska has played much better since firing Scott Frost and getting their asses kicked to Oklahoma. Sure, they lost to Purdue 43-37 on the road, but they put up 37 points! The offense is starting to figure it out a bit after that slow start against Rutgers. The total has ticked down from 51.5 to 50.5, which always adds to us liking the dog.
The Pick: Nebraska +7.5
#10 Wake Forest @ Louisville +3.5 Total 63.5
All Wake Forest does is win and cover. They almost took down Clemson at home too, which would have them undefeated on the season. The Deacons are legit, so why the fuck are they only laying a field goal against unranked Louisville?!
The Cardinals opened things up last weekend at home against Pitt. After trailing 10-7 heading into the 4th Q, their offense finally woke up and scored 17 unanswered. The oddsmakers are giving them some respect, and the sharps are all over it. As you know, one thing we love is a non-trendy home dog, especially one getting low tickets and higher dollars. L’Vill is getting 17% of the bets, but 30% of the money. The line opened -4.5 and is down to -3.5 despite Wake getting 83% of the tickets. Sure thing!
The Pick: Louisville +3.5
#20 Cincinnati @ UCF -1.5 Total 56.5
No, that’s not a typo. Unranked UCF - who just lost outright as a 5 point favorite to ECU - is a favorite at home against 6-1 Cincinnati. You know the drill! We love our unranked fav vs a ranked opponent. Even more so when they have a line move in their favor. UCF opened -1 and is now up to -1.5. A small move, but still significant given that the money is NOT hitting the Bearcats, yet the tickets are. Mmph!
The Pick: UCF ML (-125)
#9 Oklahoma St @ #22 Kansas St -1.5 Total 55.5
A very similar situation to Cinci/UCF. Sure, Kansas State is ranked, so a little different, but they’re still viewed as the “inferior opponent”. What’s also different in this case is that Ok State opened a -1.5 point favorite, and it’s now flipped. This is really right up our alley. Something we also like is after a team just burned bettors in a sharp spot, which is K St. They were +4.5 to +3.5 last week @ TCU and lost by 10. Now, the public has no interest…but the sharps are going back to them. Don’t be fooled by the “better team” at plus money.
The Pick: K St ML (-125)
Missouri @ #25 South Carolina -3.5 Total 46.5
Quite possibly my favorite play not only of the week, but of the season. South Carolina just beat Texas A&M as a 3 point dog last weekend. I do not think this team is as good as their ranking or record indicates, and I am so fucking ready to fade them in the right spot. Trust me, I know Missouri isn’t that good, but this is why I think the time is now. SC has got to be feeling themselves after that win, and now a 3-4 Missouri team is coming to town who just beat Vanderbilt by 3 points. What I find strange is the line movement. SC opened as a -5.5 point favorite, but sharps hammered Mizz early, moving it down to 3.5. Getting the worst of the number? Sure, but I don’t give a damn. Give me a one way ticket to upset city, please!
The Pick: Missouri +3.5
#12 Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +1.5 Total 54.5
I really don’t want to do this. Texas A&M is a bad team. If you don’t like betting on bad teams, I totally understand. But we are sick fucks, and this is unfortunately the life we’ve chosen. Or…did it choose us? Anyways, an awful A&M team opened as a 3 point favorite, which is already low in our opinion, and is getting hit hard with money. 20% of the bets but 33% of the handle is on the Aggies, causing the line to move 1.5 points. Perhaps Ole Miss is fraudulent? Time will tell, but we can’t pass up one of the weirdest lines of the weekend.
The Pick: Texas A&M +1.5
Jovan’s Best Bet (@jovan_deeb)
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall -2.5 Total 55.5
Coastal Carolina is coming off their first loss of the season by four TDs at home against Old Dominion. Marshall is coming off of a huge win on the road against James Madison, but the asterisk from that game is JMU’s star QB Todd Centeio wasn’t available. So on paper these are two teams trending in opposite directions, but Marshall being not only a favorite but catching 2.5 points still seems off. Matchup-wise it’s strength vs strength with Coastal’s electric spread offense against Marshall’s brick wall of a defense, one of the better ones in the group of five. Grayson McCall hasn't seen anything like this Marshall defense this year. I expect their d-line to pressure him and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Prior to last week’s loss, McCall had only been sacked seven times total and ODU sacked him seven times last week alone, hence some of their struggles. McCall has also only thrown one interception this year, partially a product of only playing one team in the top half of FBS in forcing them.
Marshall is tied for 2nd in FBS with 12 interceptions and could add to that number by forcing McCall into some uncomfortable throws. On the other side you have Coastal’s porous defense against Marshall’s anemic offense. Marshall’s two-QB system can sometimes be frustrating but they lean on the run game with Khalan Laborn anyway. And their run game should thrive against the Coastal defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry and has allowed a 100-yard rusher in 4 of their 7 games this year. Give me the Herd at home to take care of business.
The Pick: Marshall ML (-135)
RECAP:
NFL
Steelers +10.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Cowboys -9.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Rams +1.5
Browns +3.5
Texans +2 (Bookie Pick)
Dolphins/Lions OVER 51.5
Giants/Seahawks UNDER 44.5
CFB
Notre Dame +2.5
Auburn +3.5
Nebraska +7.5
Louisville +3.5
UCF ML (-125)
Kansas St ML (-125)
Missouri +3.5
Texas Tech ML (-130)
Texas A&M +1.5
Marshall ML (-135)