NFL Week 9 and College Football Week 10
Shuffle Up and Deal
The busiest trade deadline in NFL History!
It won’t effect the lines this week, but with the best getting better, the weak getting weaker, and the Jaguars signing Calvin Ridley - you can bet later in the season we will see spreads start to open up between the haves and the have-nots.
We’ve had a solid season thus far, and as we approach the halfway point, we’re going to scale it back a bit and only go with our five favorite picks. Given the newsletter comes out Friday, we typically don’t include the Thursday night game. There are also some late adds that are made over the weekend. If you’re interested in following ALL of our action, then we recommend following us on Betstamp @thedegenweekly.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 33-26-2 (+4.99 Units)
CFB: 42-32 (+4.47 Units)
Panthers @ Bengals -7 Total 42.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
What in the absolute fuck is going on in Charlotte?! Steve Wilks and PJ Walker have injected life into the Panthers season. See, this is why we say to bet on teams after they fire their coach. Addition by subtraction after Rhule left town, and Baker is now a converted blocking dummy for O-line drills.
The Panthers have now covered two in a row. After a miraculous catch by DJ Moore last week, they nearly beat the Falcons and could have found themselves in 1st place of the NFC South. We saw the sharps hammer the Panthers vs ATL after they opened +6.5 and closed +4. Shame on us for not following the money. But now, the public is catching on, and that’s when we have to fade the feel good story.
This situation feels eerily similar to when the Bengals were -6.5 point favorites at home vs the Falcons just two weeks ago. We aren’t shy to make them our best bet again, especially after an embarrassing loss to the Browns in primetime. For whatever reason, Joey B becomes Joey D- in Cleveland.
The bets and the money are with Carolina right now, and they have seen a little line move down to -7, but we think this is too many points for a reason.
The Pick: Bengals -7
Rams @ Bucs - 3 Total 42.5 (Gregs Best Bet)
“You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain” - Harvey Dent
I promise this whole write-up isn’t going to be about Brady, but before we jump in, we need to address Mr. Perfect and his fall from grace. He’s down one Supermodel wife, and more importantly (to him) on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. From a gambling perspective - the important thing to note is that the divorce is final. Public statements were issued, and the closure in his personal life can lead to success in his professional life. Additionally, Brady had 10 days off since the Thursday Night loss to the Ravens. For a team that has drastically struggled, those extra few days can make a huge difference. Advantage: Buccaneers.
Now, let’s look past Page 6 and into the actual matchup. The previous two Super Bowl Champions matchup in what is likely the most disappointing game of the year.
Due to a slew of injuries the Bucs haven’t been able to rely on their defense like they have in years past. Things seem to be going from bad to worse.
This is either going to be a snowball effect that marks the beginning of the end of sunny days in Tampa, OR a line in the sand where they finally turn it around and at least put up a respectable season.
Both these teams have looked ugly in every aspect, and the public clearly can’t make up their mind as to which former Prom Queen packed on more weight over the summer. The Tickets are split 50/50 but seeing 80% of the handle on Tampa is what’s catching my eye. The line is moving in their favor as well, although the injury news surrounding Cooper Kupp has certainly played a part. At this point, only one of these teams is making the playoffs and my bet is that Tom won’t fold, but Stafford will.
The Pick: Bucs -3
*Masked Singer Moment*
In this week’s installment of The Bookie Pick of the Week we revel the mastermind behind our biggest contrarian play on the board…
Hello Jake! Moving forward this will be his best bet, but it will follow the same criteria: ugly, untouchable, and thought provoking. Now that it’s formal, let’s make it nasty…
The Seahawks defense has significantly improved over the last month, and they’ve won three in a row. Seattle embarrassed the Cardinals in Week 6 when Arizona was a short favorite, and now Vegas is doing it again. Cardinals -2? With one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL? Everyone is getting “wrong team favored” vibes but us. Seeing a total near 50 when when 3 weeks ago they combined for 28 is a signal in favor of video game Kyler, and our guy loves the Cards to spoil the Geno Smith hype train.
The Pick: Cardinals -2
Come on Over, Over: Colts @ Patriots Total 40.5
The Colts are going into full rebuild mode. The move to Sam Ehlinger is quite brilliant. If he’s good – fantastic, you have something to build on for next year. If he sucks – even better, you tank and get a great draft pick. All while avoiding paying a chunk of Matt Ryan’s salary. Chess not checkers in the House of Irsay. Looking more and more like the Colts are clearing house for a rebuild in in 2023.
Last week our Over was the highest total, this week it’s the lowest. Find a newsletter with better range – we dare you!
The Patriots kicked 5 FG’s against the Jets
The Colts offense is in shambles
Jonathan Taylor is likely to miss another game
Who wants a Sam Ehlinger/Mac Jones Over? Somebody with sharp money, because despite being 39.5 earlier in the week it’s already ticked up to 40.5. Let’s get dirty!
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Dolphins/Bears U45.5
First off - shoutout to our guy Shoogz for inspiring last weeks Thunder-Under with the Seahawks/Giants total. Truly growing a wonderful community of Degenerates in our Wednesday Night Twitter Space and loving every second of it.
This week we find ourselves traveling to Soldier Field for a Dolphins Bears game with a total that feels a bit light. Last week the Dolphins game went for 58 (ya welcome) and the Bears game went for 78. But like we always say “strange things and ugly football happen at Soldier Field”. Shockingly, this might end up being the most contrarian play of the day.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 10
#24 Kentucky @ Missouri +1.5 Total 40.5
We thank Missouri for coming through last week as our favorite dog (and biggest bet) of the season. Now, as tempted as we are to go back to them in another spot where we’re seeing a line-freeze, we’re going to stay off of a side in this one. What intrigues us in this matchup is the lack of offense. Our football brain is matching with our betting market brain in this one. The Wildcats could only muster up 6 points in Tennessee last weekend. Dare we say Will Levis might not actually be that guy? Missouri has a pretty solid running game, but watching them try to pass will make you want to rip your eyes out. The over is getting 68% of the bets, but only 49% of the money. Opened at 43, so we are getting a very bad number, but we don’t care.
The Pick: UNDER 40.5
Texas Tech @ #7 TCU -8.5 Total 69.5
Trust me, we are not going off of the “due” theory as our reasoning for fading TCU this weekend. They had plenty of chances for regression, and it ain’t happening. We think this Frogs team is the real deal. After a miracle cover last weekend against WVU, they now return home to play a Texas Tech team that everyone has written off. Tech was in a pretty sharp spot against Baylor last weekend, and burned all bettors as they got their ass kicked 45-17. No surprise here that Tech is only getting 25% of the bets, however, they’re seeing 49% of the money. This line opened -10 and has been bet down to 8.5. Classic reverse line move with a non-trendy dog that we can’t ignore.
The Pick: Texas Tech +8.5
#20 Syracuse @ Pitt -3.5 Total 48.5
Syracuse’s QB did get hurt last weekend against ND, so if he doesn’t start, we will be OFF of this game. Be sure to follow us on Twitter for updates. Should he play, then this line is an absolute head scratcher. A good ole Degen auto-play of an unranked favorite against a ranked opponent. Despite Syracuse getting beaten handily by the Irish, they still covered and only lost by 6 as a road dog against Clemson. This seems like a decent amount of respect for a Pitt team that just lost to UNC 42-24, and has now lost 3/4 - including to Georgia Tech. Cuse is still feisty and the total is trending down, so we are dodging the points and laying it.
The Pick: Pitt ML -170
Baylor @ Oklahoma -3.5 Total 61.5
This pick is more about backing OU than it is fading Baylor. We’ve had a pretty good read on this Bears team throughout the year, and hit the Sooners two weeks in what was arguably the fishiest spot of the year (-9 vs Kansas). Dillon Gabriel returned for that game, and they followed up the Kansas win with a win on the road at Iowa State. This is a Sooners team that had a 9 win total to start the season. With a first year head coach, new QB and OC, we think they’re starting to figure it out offensively. The public isn’t quite as sold, and they’re all over Baylor. The Bears are getting 60% of the bets and 70% of the money, yet the line hasn’t budged off of -3.5. Sometimes the lack of line movement is more telling than a move.
The Pick: Oklahoma -3.5
#25 UCF @ Memphis +3.5 Total 58.5
This weeks Memphis is last weeks Missouri. Seriously, almost the same exact situation, except they’re at home. The Knights just beat Cinci at home and now find themselves ranked. They opened -5 and the line quickly got bet down to -3.5. Memphis is a non-trendy dog with only 38% of the bets, but sharps are all over them. Why would the money be hitting the unranked team that’s lost 3 in a row against a team riding as high as the Knights right now? Hmmm…
The Pick: Memphis +3.5
#18 Oklahoma St @ Kansas -1 Total 63.5
RING THE ALARM - the Kansas Jayhawks fit two Degenerate systems this weekend. Not only do we have an unranked favorite against a ranked opponent, but we also have KU as a dog to favorite. MMPH!
Even though Oklahoma St got shutout last weekend by K State, the public does not care. They still see them as the ranked team, and the “better” team. Ok State opened -3.5 and now find themselves as a +1 dog in Kansas. Sign us up!
The Pick: Kansas -1
#1 Tennessee @ #3 Georgia -8.5 Total 66.5
You should know by now that we love a top team (in any sport) that finds themselves in a contrarian spot. We hit Georgia in this situation earlier in the year as they were laying -29.5 at home vs Auburn. Obviously, Tennessee is no Auburn, but the same thing is being said by bettors - “too many points”. The public may agree that Georgia is the better team, but not by 9 points. It’s not very often you’ll find the #1 ranked team almost catching double digit points. The Bulldogs are only getting 16% of the bets, opened -8.5 and the line hasn’t moved.
The Pick: Georgia -8.5
Jovan’s Best Bet @jovan_deeb
#23 Texas @ #13 Kansas St +2.5 Total 54.5
How often do we see a team beat a ranked opponent by 48 points and then turn around and be 2.5-point home underdogs the next week? Probably not too often, and that tells the story itself. I like Kansas State and think they're better than people give them credit for, but don’t get fooled by their offensive performance last week. Oklahoma State’s front seven couldn’t stop Deuce Vaughn on first downs, putting Will Howard into favorable positions and manageable second and third downs. It forced them to sell out for the run and expose their injury-riddled secondary in one-on-one matchups that they got smoked in. Texas is one of the best early down defenses in the country, and while they won’t shut Deuce Vaughn down completely (because nobody does that), they will do enough to make the Wildcat offense uncomfortable. If Adrian Martinez comes back from injury with his first game action against this defense, good luck. If it remains Will Howard, he will learn very quickly that Texas’ front seven will make it much harder for him to look Pat Mahomes-esque like he did last week.
On the other side, Oklahoma State’s lack of a run game made them a horrible matchup for the Kansas State defense. Hello to Bijan Robinson and the likely 150+ yards we will see him put up. Quinn Ewers should bounce back from his three-interception game against a defense that doesn’t force many turnovers against offenses who don’t typically give it away too often. Give me the Longhorns to go into Manhattan and pick up a big win for their Big 12 title game hopes.
The Pick: Texas -2.5
RECAP:
NFL
Bengals -7 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Buccaneers -3 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Cardinals -2 (Jake’s Best Bet)
Patriots/Colts OVER 40
Dolphins/Bears UNDER 45.5
CFB
UK/Mizz UNDER 40.5
Texas Tech +8.5
Pitt ML -170
Oklahoma -3.5
Memphis +3.5
Kansas -1
Georgia -8.5
Texas -3.5
Just stumbled on to you guys a couple weeks ago, keep up the good work!!