NFL Week 9 & College Football Week 10
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Coming off our best week yet!
Finally a much needed strong week in College and a cherry on top of a near sweep in NFL. This week in the NFL is about as tricky as they come. Tons of tough lines and absurd about backup QBs making an appearance with injuries running rampant across the NFL.
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Current Record YTD:
NFL: 31-15 (+13.02 Units)
CFB: 29-29-2 (-2.89 Units)
NFL WEEK
Seahawks at Ravens -5.5 Total 44.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
As someone who faded the Seattle Seahawks this season, let me be the first to say…I MIGHT be wrong about Geno Smith. Emphasis on “might”. Not ready to go all in just yet, because there are times when Geno still makes some very questionable decisions leading to turnovers. But overall, he’s cooking, and the Seahawks have themselves at 5-2. However, if you look at their schedule, this is a team with a lot of miles and a slew of tough opponents coming up, starting with the Ravens.
As noted in Warren Sharps NFL Preview, the Seahawks only had two true outdoor road games last season. In those games, they put up 7 and 10 points on offense. This season they have 5 of those games. So far they’ve played two - at the Giants and at the Bengals. The Seahawks put up 24 points against the Giants, but as we now know the G Men are a fucking dumpster fire. They forced 3 turnovers and scored a defensive touchdown. On offense they only put up 280 yards and 13 first downs. In Cincy they actually moved the ball quite well, but stalled in the rezone and only scored 13 in a losing effort. So this is the third attempt and grudge match of hoping the Seattle we faded shows up, and I’m going to double down.
In addition to fading Geno, I want to bet on Lamar Jackson. Last week wasn’t his best performance, but I do believe LJ will only continue to improve as a passer as he gets more reps in this Todd Monken offense. I also think Baltimore is a legit Super Bowl contender if they can stay healthy. I’m pondering the idea of snagging a +1200 ticket. What am I waiting for? A drubbing of the Seahawks and a worse number, because I’m a moron.
The Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-120)
Cardinals at Browns -8.5 Total 37.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Josh Dobbs was traded to Minnesota so naturally Kyler Murray must be healthy enough to resume his role as starting QB, right? Wrong! HC Jonathan Gannon comes in hot with the curveball - likely starting Clayton Tune. Who? The 2023 fifth round draft pick from Houston will get his first start on the road against a ferocious Browns defense. Head scratching move to say the least. To date Gannon has worked wonders with NFL journeyman, Josh Dobbs. Sure, they’re 1-7 but they have been scrappy and fighting hard in every game. He’s got this team believing week-in and week-out. No easy task, especially when the wins have been non-existent.
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I’m certainly not about to tell you that Clayton Tune is the next big thing. What I want to point is the perspective of the Browns and their head coach Kevin Stefanski. A team and head coach known to play down to inferior opponents.
The Browns are 2-1 since their bye week, and every game has been a dog fight.
Week 6: Win over SF on last second missed FG
Week 7: Win over Indy on a questionable PI call in the final minute
Week 8: Loss at Seattle, gave up a TD in final minute
Three games, three weeks, three battles from start to finish. Now they have a cake walk against the team with the worst record in the NFL who is starting a rookie QB? It does’t get any easier that this!
It’s not just about what the Browns have been through lately, it’s about what’s on deck in the weeks to come. Following this matchup with the Cardinals the Browns play some massive divisional games at Baltimore and then back home for Pittsburgh.
Cleveland is already counting this one in the win column, but my bet is that Jonathan Gannon is able to work up a scheme to get the Cardinals in it early and keep them fighting till the end.
The Pick: Cardinals +8.5 (-115)
Giants at Raiders -1.5 Total 37.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Goodbye and good riddance Josh McDaniels. Heads rolled late Tuesday night in Vegas when the Raiders (finally) decided to cut ties with McDaniels and their GM. They also announced benching Jimmy G in favor of rookie Aidan O’Connell. The times they are a-changin’ indeed.
One of our favorite systems at the Degen is to back a team after they fired their head coach. And yes it might seem too obvious in this case with McDaniel, but we just can’t help ourselves. Former Giant, Antonio Pierce come in as the interim HC. Probably not a sustainable hire, but this guy is going to have the Raiders fired up for Sunday.
Steak says it’s the Raiders, and we aren’t about to talk him off of it.
The Pick: Raiders ML (-125)
Colts at Panthers +2.5 Total 44.5
Nearly one year to the date after Frank Reich was fired he gets his shot at revenge against the Colts. Yes he underperformed, but the Colts continued to miss at the QB position and ultimately he took the blame. Now he gets a stab at them with #1 overall draft pick Bryce Young. The rookie finally ripped the monkey off his back and silenced (for one week) his doubters with his first win as a NFL starter. Kudos to any of you who tailed our pick on them last week at +3.
So, what are you gonna do for an encore Bryce Young? Even in victory the Panthers offense was relatively quiet. Last week Frank Reich relinquished the play calling duties to OC Thomas Brown who will continue the role going forward. He’s got to be salivating over what he’s looking with the Colts D. Look how they’ve fared the last few weeks.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags put up 37
PJ Walker and the Browns put up 39
Derek Carr and the Saints put up 38
That isn’t exactly a murders row of opponents. The Panthers D is a getting a little bit healthier and we think they’re a dog whose learning to bite.
The Pick: Panthers +2.5
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Cowboys at Eagles Total 46.5
The big fellas of the NFC East showdown in Philly for what should be one of the best games of the weekend. This one is as tough as it gets for picking a side but we see some value in the total.
It opened at 47 and despite everyone taking the over the line is moving down. Maybe Hurts is a little more banged up than the Eagles are letting on. It’s not a must win for the Cowboys, but if they want to stay in contention for the NFC East it is. A bit of desperation leads can lead into conservative play for Mike McCarthy and the ‘Boys.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 10
#15 Notre Dame at Clemson +3
I will admit that I’m having concerns Clemson is becoming a “dead team”, and one thing we want to avoid late in the season is putting our hard earned money on dead teams. But I think with Dabo’s latest rant, he might have gone in “fuck you” mode.
Last weeks lost to NC State is quite possibly the lowest low Clemson has experienced in over a decade. Highly touted 5 star QB Cade Klubnik might actually stink, but the one thing I took away from that games box score is the defense is still playing well. Clemson allowed just 200 yards and 9 first downs. How they still lost is beyond me.
Notre Dame has bounced back nicely since their loss at Louisville, but their offense is something I still don’t have much faith in. The 48 points scored against USC was mostly in part to a special teams TD and 5 turnovers forced by the defense. Ultimately, I can’t trust Sam Hartman on the road in this environment after what I saw against Duke and Louisville. Clemson did almost beat FSU, so they are capable of hanging with the big dogs. I think they give Notre Dame all they can handle, and potentially win outright (unfortunately).
The Pick: Clemson +3
UConn at Tennessee -35.5
You could say Tennessee is in a bit of a “look-ahead” spot with a trip to Missouri on deck, but I’m not worried because UConn is in one of my favorite spots to fade - third road trip in four weeks. The Huskies just appeased bettors by covering a double digit spread at Boston College, but I can assure you the last thing this 1-7 team wants to do is get back on a plane and play an SEC opponent. The Vols just had a huge win on the road in Kentucky, and at 6-2 they cannot afford to slip up. The total is up from 53 to 55.5, which to me indicates we get some offense here. I say it’s one-sided, as the spread and market are whispering “Vols rout is incoming” in my ear.
The Pick: Tennessee -35.5
Illinois at Minnesota -1.5
Another bet we don’t want to make but feels as if we have to make. We fucked around with Michigan St last week and found out. That was one of our only losses of the weekend, and in hindsight betting on an awful team will always leave you kicking yourself. Yet fading Minnesota didn’t feel like the wrong decision. This Gophers team fucking stinks, and we’re determined to prove it with our units. Now as you know we don’t typically bet on teams after a BYE week, but in this particular spot we’re okay with it. Illinois might be slightly better than its 3-5 record shows. A win at Maryland two weeks ago was impressive, and then they had a lead against Wisconsin till the final drive. The line moved from 3 to 1.5, so we obviously missed the best number (shocker) but don’t care - we think Illinois is the better team and should win the game outright.
The Pick: Illinois +1.5
LSU at Alabama -3
Fading Alabama isn’t fun. That loss to Texas feels like an eternity ago. The casual fan is back to Saban slurping, and I like that LSU isn’t a trendy dog given how good Alabama has looked recently. It seems they’ve figured out how to properly use Jalen Milroe and the deep ball has been quite efficient. Kudos to OC Tommy Rees, I guess. But on that note, I think Brian Kelly has a bone to pick with that little fucker. When Brian Kelly left Notre Dame for LSU, it was rumored he tried to get Rees to join him, but Rees elected to stay with the Irish. One year later he departed for the SEC and joined Saban. Interesting! Brian Kelly is a prick, and I think he takes this game personally. QB Jayden Daniels has kept himself in the Heisman conversation despite being on a 2 loss team. I know the Tigers defense is atrocious, but their offense is elite. I don’t think Bamas D is ready for it.
The Pick: LSU +3
Stanford at Washington St -13.5
Stanford has been doing this thing where one week they’re competitive, and the next week they’re not. They just hung with Washington and somehow put up 33 points. Now they travel to play a Washington St team who’s lost 4 straight. Dead team or get right game? If you were to tell me there aren’t enough games for this team to get right for, I wouldn’t argue. But I think the Cougars want to right their wrongs in front of the home crowd after losing 44-6 in their most recent home game. Before that, they had impressive wins against Wisconsin and Oregon St. Wazzou should make the Cardinal their punching bag this weekend.
The Pick: Washington St -13.5
#19 UCLA at Arizona +2.5
Arizona is having an incredible year. Not only are they 5-3 and coming off a huge home win against Oregon St, but they’re also 7-1 ATS. A sports bettors best friend! Now they are catching points for the second week in a row, after taking down what appears to be a better opponent than the one on deck this weekend. Sadly, I don’t think the Wildcats come through twice. I’m not calling them a fraud, but this is just how sports betting works sometimes. UCLA just had 4 turnovers against Colorado last weekend, and still won by double digits. I expect them to clean it up and execute well against an opponent they know can’t be taken lightly.
The Pick: UCLA -2.5
#22 Kansas at Iowa St -2.5
I’ll keep this one short and simple: unranked favorite against a ranked opponent, and a letdown spot for Kansas after just upsetting Oklahoma. Has to be played.
The Pick: Iowa St -2.5
RECAP:
NFL
Ravens -5.5 (-120)
Cardinals +8.5 (-115)
Raiders ML (-125)
Panthers +2.5 (-105)
DAL/PHI Under 46.5 (-105)
CFB
Clemson +3 (-105)
Tennessee -35.5 (-105)
Illinois +1.5 (-105)
LSU +3 (-115)
Washington St -13.5 (-105)
UCLA -2.5 (-115)
Iowa St -2.5 (-115)