(Luka staring down Booker as the Mavericks beat the Suns in Game 7)
What a weekend. Five game 7’s in the NHL, two game 7’s in the NBA, full slate of MLB games and a tight golf tournament where KH Lee held off Spieth. The stars truly aligned. Now we’ve got one day of rest, then right back at it with the next round of Playoff series firing up in both sports, and the PGA Championship this weekend.
We hate to hammer you guys with emails, but this week is too big not to double up. We’ll hit you Wednesday morning with some PGA Championship picks, but today is all NBA and NHL.
An important reminder to follow us on Twitter (@thedegenweekly) if you aren’t already. We had ourselves a MASSIVE Saturday thanks to the best elimination game goalie in our lifetime. A quick look back to appreciate the greatness of Andrei Vasilevskiy:
…all of those bets hit…
Okay, that’s enough back patting. There’s plenty to look forward to, so let’s get into it.
NHL PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Lightning (+130) VS Panthers (-150)
Who would have ever thought one of the best playoff series in the NHL would be between two teams from Florida? This second round showdown consists of the Presidents Cup winner (Panthers) vs the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champions.
For those that don’t know – the Presidents Cup is awarded to the team with the best regular season record. There have been 33 teams awarded with it, and only 8 of them have gone on to win the Cup. Most people consider it a curse, especially considering the last few winners got bounced in the Playoffs early – including the Lightning who got swept in the 1st round back in 2019 by the Blue Jackets.
The Panthers are looking to break the curse, as they advanced after battling back down 0-1 and 1-2 to beat the Capitals. It was their first Playoff series win since 1996. Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky started slow, but finished strong winning 3 straight starts, and stopping 30+ shots in the last two games against Washington. The concern in this next round is that the Bolts own real estate in his head. Bobrovsky’s worst save percentage against any team is against Tampa (.882). These two met in the playoffs last year, and Bobrovsky got pulled in 2 of those games (Tampa won in 6).
The Lightning meanwhile are trying to 3 peat as Champions, which hasn’t been done in 40 years. Not only that, they’ve won 9 (!) consecutive playoff series since getting swept in the 1st round as we mentioned and posting this apology to fans.
The team as a whole is not as good as they’ve been the last two years, and are also dealing with some key injuries. Brayden Point was their best player in the Leafs series, and he looks like he can’t move well after hitting the board awkwardly in game 7. We aren’t ones to bet against injuries, but this is a huge deal.
At the end of the day, the Panthers have the better team and the chip on their shoulder. Florida has been knocking on the door and ready to bust through. The biggest worry is they’re going up against arguably the best Playoff goalie in NHL history – Andrei Vasilevksiy. He wasn’t great in the first round, allowing 3+ goals in the first 6 games. But when it counts in an elimination game, there is nobody better than Vasy, and he showed that in Toronto. The Bolts lost key pieces from their previous Cup winning teams, and they have a lot of wear and tear on those skates. It’s terrifying to bet against a goalie as good as Vasy, but the oddsmakers set this line appropriately, and that makes us comfortable backing the Cats. Anything under -130 and we would’ve thought the line is fishy. The public will be all over a back-to-back Championship team at plus money, but we aren’t falling for the bait.
The Pick: Panthers in 6
The Bet: Panthers to win series (-150)
Rangers (+170) VS Hurricanes (-210)
This line is what separates the men from the boys. The Rangers just climbed out of a 3-1 hole and knocked off the Pens. What’s even more impressive is they came from behind in every single elimination game.
This is a steep price for Carolina who also played a tough 7 game series and knocked off the Bruins. Setting the line at a juicy -210 is a big enough number to scare the public away, or even worse - towards the Rangers. Don’t fall for it, lay the wood.
Frederik Anderson should make a return after missing the entire series vs the Bruins with a lower body injury. Maybe that’s why this line is as high as it is? We think (despite advancing) some of the Rangers shortcomings in the playoffs were exposed against the beat up Penguins, and their 3rd string goalie just couldn’t capitalize. Keep in mind the Canes were just a short -120 favorite over the Bruins in Round 1, and the Rangers finished the season with a better record and the best goalie on the planet. Regardless, this is some serious respect for the Canes and we are going to follow it. Expect some hard fought and entertaining games, but Carolina will have the edge.
The Pick: Hurricanes in 6
The Bet: Hurricanes to win series -210
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Blues (+310) vs. Avalanche (-400)
Binnington is back, and that should make everyone in Colorado a bit uneasy. The 2019 Stanley Cup Champions looked to pick up a bit of momentum late in their amazing series against the Wild. They’ll need every last bit of it if they want to compete with the juggernaut Avalanche.
FanDuel is legitimately offering an Avalanche versus the field bet for the Stanley Cup. That should tell you how much of a powerhouse this team is (Field -265). A big question in this series will be how long until rest turns into rust. After sweeping the Preds, Colorado has gone over a week with no action, and could come out a bit flat as a result. These teams also faced off in the playoffs last year, with the Avalanche sweeping. So you can be damn sure there is going to chip on the shoulder of the Blues.
It’s no secret that the Avs have struggled with tremendous talent over the last few years, but a win here will put them in their first Western Conference Final Since 2002. Blues won’t go down easy, but they’ll go down.
The Pick: Avalanche in 6
The Bet: Blues +2.5 (-175)
Oilers (+160) VS Flames (-190)
The Battle of Alberta! As a 34 year old American who’s been watching hockey for the last 10-12 years, I admittedly have no idea what the fuck it means. But apparently, it’s a big deal.
This series could rival the Panthers/Lightning as being the best of the 2nd round matchups. Both teams just had grudge matches against opponents they were expected to handle easily. The Oilers were -230 against the Kings, and Jonathan Quick took ‘em to 7 games. The Flames were as high as -340 against the Stars, and it took 67 shots to take down 23 year old (potential phenom) Stars goalie Jake Oettinger in OT of game 7.
The Oilers have the superstars in McDavid and Draisatil, but the Flames have the better team top to bottom. Most importantly, they’ve got the better goalie – and it’s not even close. Jacob Markstrom is a Vezina finalist and also just posted the 2nd highest save % in the NHL Playoffs. He also led the regular season in shutouts with 9. As good as Edmontons top line is, they are at a huge disadvantage with Mike Smith in net. He had some good showings in the Kings series – most notably the game 7 shutout. But let’s be honest…it was the Kings. The Flames have way more firepower, and they are relentless. I don’t think a 40 year old goalie is ready to get peppered by the likes of Johnny Hockey (actual nickname) and Matthew Tkachuk.
The Flames finally have the right combination of depth on their roster and a goalie they can rely on. It’s too bad the Avalanche are so good, because this might be Calgary’s best chance to win a Cup since I’ve been following hockey. As good as McDavid is, it’s quite clear that Draisaitl is not 100%. That could be a huge injury if he can’t get right in this series. If Makstrom is dialed in, which we expect him to be, the Flames could get out of this one quickly.
The Pick: Flames in 5
The Bet: Flames to win series -190
NBA PLAYOFFS
The Eastern Conference Finals
Boston Celtics (-170) VS Miami Heat (+150)
It’s not often you get a #1 seed in a Conference Finals as the contrarian spot, and we won’t be passing up on this opportunity.
The Celtics deserve tons of credit for slaying the beast that is Giannis. They made it much more difficult than it needed to be after choking in game 5 and going down 3-2, but stepped up and got the job done. Jason Tatum looks like he’s officially moved into the “elite” category of players, and Bostons defense continues to thrive. The one thing to point out before you go punch your ticket on them - Milwaukee took Boston to 7 games without their 2nd best player (Middleton). Your casual fan may not care, because Giannis is THAT good, but it does matter that the Bucks had to rely heavily on Grayson Allen in a road playoff game.
Miami might be the most slept on 1 seed in our lifetime. I truly can not remember a team this good that got talked about less than this years Heat. When compared to the other superstars in the East, I do think it’s safe to say Jimmy Butler doesn’t really belong in the same conversation as Durant and Embiid in terms of talent…but this guy is just a tough son of a bitch. What’s best about Jimmy is that his attitude and approach to the game is taken on by his entire team. The Heat are not a fun matchup for anyone in a 7 game series. I don’t care how good you are, they can do everything - especially play defense. The Celtics relied on their 3 point shooting to take down the Bucks, and now they play the NBA’s top perimeter defense. It sounds like Kyle Lowry will be out for game 1, which actually may be addition by subtraction. He was clearly not 100% in the series against Philly, and Miami was MUCH better without him on the court.
It should be mentioned that since the All Star break, the Celtics have been historically good. But let’s not forget they’re still a young team, and the Heat have already shown they’re capable of making it to the Finals after their bubble run in 2020.
The talking heads on ESPN are all over Boston. Max Kellerman said the Celtics will sweep (lol) and Barkley picked them as well. Do you want to roll with Max Kellerman, or do you want to roll with the Degenerate?
The Pick: Miami in 6
The Bet: Heat to win the series +150
The Western Conference Finals
Dallas Mavericks (+175) VS Golden State Warriors (-210)
The Mavericks have been heavy dogs in every series so far (we took ‘em in both, nbd), and yet they keep finding a way to get it done.
We aren’t singing any song of destiny, yet. The Jazz had all kinds of problems and the Suns fell victim to CP3’s choke artist ways. Regardless, Luka and the boys keep getting it done. Now they’re facing their biggest challenge by far against the re-emergence of Golden State.
The Dubs trio is looking like it’s old self, and Jordan Poole is a rising star. They have the experience, great depth and one of the best coaches in the NBA. It’s borderline impossible to find flaws with this squad…but there’s just something about the Mavericks we can’t fade. Full transparency we are holding a +2400 ticket on the Mavs to win the west from back in February, but that’s not why. This team just has a way of performing better than people expect. It goes back to 2020 and 2021 where they lost to the Clippers. Sure they were eliminated, but everyone had them written off from the jump, and somehow they forced Kawhi to a Game 7. So one more time, let’s ride with ‘em when no one outside of Dallas will.
The Pick: Mavericks in 7
The Bets:
Mavericks to win series +185
Klay Thompson Finals MVP +1600 (Hedge)