Stanley Cup Playoffs
(Logo courtesy of NHL.com)
The most wonderful time of year. April is seriously so underrated as a glorious month for sports betting. You’ve got a a week to recoup after March Madness, then it’s The Masters, followed by the start of the NHL & NBA Playoffs, with the NFL Draft on deck. Oh, and speaking of that - Degen & Steak will be boots on ground in Detroit next week. If you are in the area, hit us up to grab a beer!
The NHL season is fucking LONG, but it’s finally come to an end. I can’t believe the last game was Thursday. It feels like when you drive to Key West, and you get to the sign that says “Welcome to the Florida Keys”, but you’ve still got another 1.5-2 hours of driving to do. But we’ve arrived, the series are set, and boy do they look good.
Be sure to tap into today’s Board Review at 10:30am EST where Degen and guest Jovan Deeb will be discussing series bets. We’ve also got Easy Money in the Morning at 9:30am EST breaking down the NBA Playoffs. That newsletter will be in your inbox Saturday morning. Follow us on Twitch and YouTube for the streams.
Atlantic Division
#1 Florida Panthers (-170) vs #4 Tampa Bay Lightning (+145)
Who would’ve thought that one of the best rivalries in hockey would form down in the Sunshine State?
For the third time in four years, the Panthers and Lighting meet in the post-season. In 2021 the Bolts took down the Cats in 6 games. In 2022, it only got worse. Florida had won the Presidents Cup - the trophy for the leagues best record - only to be swept in the second round by Tampa. It’s fair to say the Panthers are the Lightnings bitch. However, they do deserve credit for making a Stanley Cup run in 2023, where they lost to the Knights in 5 games.
This season is the first in what feels like an eternity that the Bolts have looked mortal. After three straight Cup appearances, the Lightning became a dynasty. But all dynasties come to an end. This year, injuries and cap money caught up to Tampa, not to mention that’s a lot of damn hockey for a team to play. Tampa allowed more 5 on 5 goals to be scored on them than any other season in the past decade. It wasn’t until a few trade deadline acquisitions were made that Tampa started to finally find their groove, then Vasilevskiy regained his form. What’s most telling about the Lightning’s current state of play right now is that the Bruins may or may not have tanked to end the season to drop from the 1st seed to the 2nd seed, so they could avoid the Bolts and play the Leafs. Not confined - just speculating!
Despite not having the leagues best record, I think it’s fair to say that at times during the season, the Panthers looked to be best team in Hockey. They’re deep and good at everything. On top of that, they’ve got some consistently good goaltending out of Bobrovsky. The key for Florida was just to stay healthy going into the Playoffs, after their top guys could barely move in last years Stanley Cup final vs Vegas. They were mostly successful, as the only guy who’s notable injured (yet still playing) is Ekblad.
In my opinion, the Panthers are a team that I cannot bet against. But in the playoffs, it doesn’t matter how good your skaters are - the scariest thing is a hot goalie. Bobo had the better overall season, but Vasy has looked like vintage Vasy down the stretch. The Cats won the season series 2-1 including a 9-3 blowout. Every series is going to be a battle, but this is one I’m looking forward to the most.
The Pick: Panthers in 7
The Bet: Series to go 7 games +205
#2 Boston Bruins (-125) vs #3 Toronto Maple Leafs (+105)
I absolutely hate myself for the bet I’m going to make in this series. You’re probably going to hate it too. I’m not overly confident, but it’s a plum play and I have to put my money where my mouth is.
I was pretty high on the Leafs this year, and bet them to win the Presidents Cup. That didn’t happen. Not even close. For the most part, I thought the Leafs season was underwhelming, but the bright spot was Austin Matthews (shocker). He looks like an absolute beast and scored 69 goals. The offense is not an area of concern, but the defense is. The Leafs have the second worst defense out of any team in the playoffs, only ahead of the Capitals. For everything they have in offensive firepower with Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander, they lack in defense and goaltending. It looked like they may have found their guy in Jacob Woll, but he got injured and cooled off. Now it looks like they’ll turn to Ilya Samssonov, who appears to be competent. Is it enough to beat the Bruins? Ehh.
Boston is just simply not a team you want to play in the playoffs, and not to mention, they have Torontos number. This is the third time Toronto and Boston will play each other in the postseason during the Matthews/Marner era. Boston has won both times, but to the Leafs credit, the series did go 7 games. The Bruins are getting older, but they still have a strong defense, and two stout goaltenders in Swayman and Ullmark. With the best goalie tandem in the league, the B’s rotated them all but 4 games this season. Ullmark has been the overall better goaltender, but Swayman is better against the Leafs. He’s saved 61/63 shots in the last two meetings against Toronto this season. This was also during a span in which the Leafs were playing their best hockey. In the midst of a 13-3 stretch back in March, two of those losses were against Boston with Swayman in net.
But fuck the regular season. Again, I think the Leafs deserve SOME credit for finally taking down Tampa in 6 games last postseason, and played the Florida Panthers relatively tough. Sure, Toronto only took the Eastern Conference Champs to 5 games, but 4/5 were decided by just one goal.
I say the Leafs get the monkey off their back and take down the B’s in 6, but I’m definitely scared to make the wager. Fading the B’s ain’t for the faint of heart. To give you a confident pick in this series, we’ve tapped in puck knower Jovan Deeb from Book It Sports to give us a best bet…
JOVANS BEST BET
Marchand is coming into the playoffs playing far from his best hockey with just 3 goals in his last 25 games and heavy criticism of how frequently he’s been turning over the puck. But it’s time for playoff Marchand, and I get the feel that he’s gonna deliver a few goals in big spots this series. He has 1 goal and 4 assists in 4 games against the Leafs this season and it was mostly because his line with Coyle and DeBrusk is so good at making teams pay on the counterattack. I think that type of transition play will be a big source of offense for the Bruins in this series. I like his outlook on the power play too which is weird to say because he’s been brutal there and they tinkered with different combos to end the year. If he stays on PP1, he’ll be with Pasta who will garner a ton of attention both because of his obvious talent and for how much he has torched the Leafs this year. And if not, I think he’ll be fired up and aggressive with that 2nd unit. With his recent struggles giving away the puck I see him placing an emphasis on getting to his spots where he can put the puck on net on top of his usual playmaking. This Bruins team isn’t as deep at the top as we’ve seen in years past, so give me public enemy #1 to show up when they might need him most in what I think will be a great series.
The Pick: Leafs in 6
The Bets: Leafs -1.5 (+180), Jovans Best Bet: Brad Marchand 2+ Goals (-135)
Metro Divison
#1 New York Rangers (-450) vs Washington Capitals (+340)
Let me preface this whole write up with admitting that I am a Rangers fan. However, I was not all that high on them coming into this season, and to be totally honest…it didn’t really seem like anyone was.
The Rangers have a talented roster mixed with youth and experience, as well as a stud goalie. But after last years big trades for Tarasenko and Patrick Kane didn’t work out, it felt as though everyone had enough of the Blueshirts coming into 2023-24. Perhaps less spotlight and lower expectations were exactly what this team needed.
Led by new (former Caps) coach Peter Laviolette, we a saw a more complete and cohesive unit. Most importantly - Artemi Panarin finally turned into the weapon New York expected him to be. The one concern early in the season for NYR was the regression seen from Igor Shesterkin. Thankfully, backup Jonathan Quick was playing out of his mind and kept the W’s stacking. There is no goalie debate heading into the playoffs though, as Igor has appeared to return to elite form.
The Rangers are a heavy favorite and rightfully so. The Capitals fucking stink. I honestly can’t stand them. They are old and washed, but one thing I have to give them credit for is they are pesky as shit. This team just doesn’t die. For fucks sake, they were even sellers at the trade deadline, and somehow STILL managed to find themselves in the postseason. Statistically, the Caps might be one of the worst teams to ever make the playoffs with a -37 goal differential. To put that into perspective, the Rangers goal differential is +53. Most (if not all) credit for Washington making the playoffs goes to young goaltender Charlie Lindgren. He played out of his mind and carried the Caps down the stretch. Lindgren has a 2.67 GAA and leads the league in shutouts with 6. He’s even got a 2-1 record against the Rangers this year, including one shutout.
The Rangers SHOULD make light work of Washington and win this series in 5…but will they? I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tad nervous. I still have nightmares of Tom Wilson stuffing the entire team in a locker and ruining the Rangers season in 2021. In response to that fiasco, the Rangers signed goon Ryan Reaves to get tougher. It didn’t work out long, and fans were left feeling that perhaps they’d just never have a tough team. Finally, a hero emerged this season with Matt Rempe. This guy has been a spark and exactly what the Rangers needed. A big, young, freak who is capable of fighting. Can he kick Tom Wilsons ass? Probably not. But at least we have someone to throw at him!
Most people think the Rangers win this series with ease, but don’t forget the collapse against the Devils last season after totally dominating the first few games. I also can’t fathom that the Caps are going to roll over and die that easily. All the pressure is on New York, and none on Washington. That scares me. I think the Caps make this just a bit more of a series than people think.
The Pick: Rangers in 6
The Bet: Over 5.5 Series Games (-115)
#2 Carolina Hurricanes (-340) vs #4 NY Islanders (+280)
For the second year in a row, my money has been placed on the Carolina Hurricanes (+900) to win the Stanley Cup. Last year was different though, as I cashed out mid season after Andrei Svechnikov got injured. This year, despite a slow start to the season, I never wavered. The Hurricanes now sit as the odds on favorite at +650 to win it all. How ya like that CLV, bitches?! (kidding)
I had some serious regret during last seasons Eastern Conference Final watching the Hurricanes outplay the Florida Panthers, but they just couldn’t get anything in the net. Bobrovsky was outstanding in that series, allowing a total of 6 goals in 4 games (including one shutout). Every game was decided by one goal. The Canes looked good, but were missing something to get them over the hump. I think that something has now arrived in Carolina, as the Hurricanes have been the best team in the NHL since the trade deadline. They acquired Jake Guenztel from the Penguins and Evgeny Kuznetsov from the Caps, and have been a different team since.
The Islanders are just a mother fucker of a team. A great quote I read in The Athletic to describe them: “The Islanders thrive off being disrespected”
Early in the season, the Islanders looked like the party was over. But then they fired their coach and hired Patrick Roy. You know I love me a coach firing! The Isles have been a pesky bunch since, despite Sorokin not really being in great form for most of the season. It appears that Varlamov will be getting the nod in this series as he’s been playing out of his mind. Per the metrics, the only goalie outperforming Varlamov right now is Jake Oettinger.
These teams are familiar with one another, and faced off last year in round 1 of the playoffs. The Canes won in 6, but were also without Svechnikov and Freddie Anderson. I don’t underestimate the Islanders and do think they can sneak out a few wins in the series, but ultimately, the Canes will be too much to handle and find the net more often.
The Pick: Canes in 6
The Bet: Over 5.5 Games (-140)
Central Division
#1 Dallas Stars (-140) vs #4 Vegas Knights (+120)
Sorry to be boring, but I can’t bet this series. I have too much PTSD from last season.
If you followed me a year ago, I talked on the Board Review about adding another Stanley Cup future to my portfolio. At the time, I had Oilers 14/1 and Devils 40/1 in pocket. I didn’t really respect anyone out of the East, so I wanted a team in the West. I was choosing between the Stars and Knights, and went with the Stars.
The reason I elected the Stars was because of goalie Jake Oettinger. I really respect the Knights roster and am a massive Mark Stone fan, but in the NHL playoffs, nothing can beat a hot goalie, so that’s where I chose to invest, and boy was I wrong. Jake stunk, and it turned out that the Knights had the hottest goalie in Adin Hill.
This should be a great rematch of last years Western Conference Finals where the Knights won in 6 games. What was most memorable was game 6, where the Knights went into Dallas and beat the absolute fuck out of them 6-0. The Knights went up 3-0 in the series, and it looked like the Stars were clawing back after making it 3-2, but then Vegas said “NOPE”.
I have this weird feeling that Vegas just has the Stars number and is their big brother. They even swept the Stars in the regular season 3-0. To Dallas’ credit though, two of those games did go into OT. Vegas has also been without Mark Stone, but is expected to get him back at some point in this series.
I think this comes down to goaltending. Hill has regressed and Logan Thompson has stepped up. I don’t think we know yet who’s expected to be in goal for Vegas, but we do know that Oettinger will be in net for the Stars, and he has been fantastic down the stretch. Finally the elite goalie we expected showed up. Since March 1st he’s 13-3 with 2.26 GAA. That’s best in the league. Does he stay hot? I think so. This could be a series of unders.
Truthfully, the Stars would be my pick to win it all this season. I’d go back to them, just as I went back to the Canes last year. I’d say this is the year of chalk and perhaps sprinkle a Canes vs Stars matchup price if you can find one,
The Pick: Stars in 7
The Bet: Stars vs Canes Matchup (+2400 on FanDuel)
#2 Colorado Avalanche (-135) vs #3 Winnipeg Jets (+115)
We asked our followers to submit their best bets for the NHL Playoffs to be featured in the newsletter, and Twizzy delivered…
Two teams that just wish they finished first and avoided this tough first round matchup, but here we are!
This is a battle of an offensive fire power vs a stout defensive team. Last year the Avs got eliminated in shocking fashion to the expansion Seattle Kraken in round 1. It’s been mostly the same old Avs this year with tremendous fire power starring Nate MacKinnon who has seemingly had the best year of his entire career. Similarly, the Jets were bounced by the eventual cup champ Golden Knights last year. This year Winnipeg has flourished in the regular season with stellar defensive play and the emergence of a young star from the Dubois trade in Gabriel Vilardi.
What many people don’t know is that Cale Makar has played through some injuries this year and Avs fans know his play away from the puck has been quite subpar… especially when he’s not on the ice with MacKinnon. The Avs have by no surprise, have been very reliant on MacKinnon/Rantanen and specifically playing them together. Despite the talent he is, Rantanen actually was outscored 16-8 without MacKinnon on the ice, and has struggled to drive play on his own line. This is why Colorado prefers to stack all of these players together, but putting all their eggs in one basket come playoff time could be a recipe for disaster, and none bigger than vs the Jets. What could soften the blow is addition of Casey Mittelstadt, whom they acquired via trade for Bowen Byram and has certainly helped Rantanen. The emergence of Jonathon Drouin is also another bright spot but playing with MacKinnon, hard to look bad!
The Jets have one of the best top pairings in the entire league with Morrissey and Demelo and can play heavy minutes against the Avs best. But the key comes in their third line, with captain Lowry flanked by Niederreiter and Appleton, who’ve only allowed 1.3 goals/60. Since they have home ice advantage, they will 100% be comfortable rolling out this trio vs the MacKinnon line when they’re able to matchup against them. If you’ve never watched Nikolai Ehlers play hockey, you’re missing out. Easily one of the most dynamic players in the entire series and can impact a hockey game like few others. Add perennial 30-40 goal scorer Kyle Connor to the mix and suddenly this stout defensive team has some offensive pop. Let’s not forget that Hellebuyck himself can steal a series against anyone, he’s that good. This is the biggest advantage the Jets have in the entire series and everyone knows premier goaltending is paramount to playoff success. I think this is probably a common sentiment, but the Avs just don’t look as scary as they once were. Regardless. people will still put their coin on them because they’re flashy and exciting.
Overall I think the Avs are just too one-dimensional and will rely too heavily on MacKinnon/Rantanen/Makar, especially against a team as deep and defensively sound as Winnipeg. Home ice may be the deciding factor in this series, as last change for Rick Bowness means he could deploy his troops strategically vs the Avs however he’d like. I don’t think this is going to be a lopsided series as the Avs should definitely win a few games especially at home when they’ll opt to go Mack vs Schiefele, but in the end I think the team with the elite goaltending, defense and depth will prevail. Hope the Avalanche are ready for the Whiteout in Winnipeg and prepare for back to back losses in the first round…
Thanks again to Twizzy for the breakdown!
The Pick: Jets in 6
The Bet: Jets to Win Series (+115)
Pacific Division
#1 Vancouver Canucks (-160) vs #4 Nashville Predators (+140)
I hate to bore ya with this, but these are probably the two teams I know least about. The one thing I do know is I respect the Vancouver Canucks, and Greg has a future ticket on them already.
Fun fact: the Nashville Predators were one of the hottest teams in the second half of the NHL season, and it all started after their loss to Dallas and a cancelled team outing to go to a U2 concert. Hard to fade that!
I’m going to pass, but if I was to play something, it would be chalk with the Canucks.
The Pick: Canucks in 7
The Bet: Canucks to win Series (-160)
#2 Edmonton Oilers (-190) vs #3 LA Kings (+160)
And lastly, one more boring non-bet from me.
I had the Oilers last year at +1400 pre-season, and sadly they went out against the Knights. My concern is how hot they were to end the season, I believe winning like 18/20 games down the stretch. You never want to be TOO hot going into the playoffs. I like team that have tasted some adversity and losses.
I’d like to get nasty in some way shape or form fading the NHL’s darling Connor McDavid, but I just can’t. I think the Oilers make light work of the Kings.
The Pick: Oilers in 5
The Bet: Oilers -2.5 Series Spread (+220)
Notable Futures:
Canes to win the Cup 9/1 (Degen + Dino)
Canucks to win West +650 (Dino)