NHL Playoffs - Round 1
Nothing Better Than Playoff Hockey
Stanley Cup Playoffs
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Sure, March Madness is cool, but the NHL Playoffs are just simply the best. Now we’ve admittedly taken our foot off the gas a little towards the end of the regular season. Similar to the NBA, it’s just too difficult betting the last week or two, as we can admit that both seasons are a few games too many. Now it’s time to cut the shit. Let’s dive in to see which teams are getting into form, and which might be peaking too early.
Can the Bruins continue to be an absolute wagon? Will the Leafs embarrass themselves yet again? Can the Avs defend their title? We got playoff hockey baby - so get excited to go to sleep with a heart rate over 90 bpm over the next couple of months, because NOTHING is better.
Atlantic Division
#1 Boston Bruins (-285) Vs. #4 Florida Panthers (+230)
No shot we are looking to fade Boston this early, even though it may be the “contrarian” bet. Florida made a huge splash this offseason with one of the biggest trades in recent memory. The Panthers acquired Matthew Tkachuk from Calgary in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weeger. Experts had said both teams got better after the deal, but both teams were underperforming most of the season. The Flames missed the playoffs, and the Cats almost did too. But they turned it up towards the end of the season, going 12-7 and sneaking into the playoffs over the Penguins. Although, the Cats did have a chance to avoid the Bruins, but lost to the Hurricanes at home in the last game of the season.
Does Florida have a chance to take down the best team ever (literally) in the first round? We like to be bold, but we don’t like to be stupid. The Bruins advance, but the question is how many games can Florida take? I personally say 2 at most, but am not confident enough to bet anything in this series. Greg is braver than I.
The Pick: Bruins in 7
The Bet: Series Total Games 7 +225 (Greg)
#2 Toronto Maple Leafs (-150) Vs. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning (+125)
Who in their right mind would lay this number on a team that can’t win in the playoffs? Well… one of us idiots took the Leafs to win the Cup, and that individual is well aware that there is a great chance they get bounced in the 1st round yet again.
Props to Greg for (yet again) being bolder than me and pulling the trigger on Toronto at +900. We both cashed out of Carolina mid-season after the Svechnikov injury, and were looking for another team in the East to invest in. I liked the Leafs, but when push comes to shove, they just have loser in their DNA, so I elected to pass. But I do think there’s value with Toronto, and that they could finally surprise people when everyone is sick of losing money on this team.
This is a rematch of last years round 1 series that went 7 games. The Leafs were cracking Vasilevskiy, which is very hard to do as he’s one of the best goalies EVER in they playoffs. Toronto scored 5 goals in game 1, and never scored less than 3 until game 7 where they blew it at home. But I think this Lightning team is tired. They’ve made 3 straight Stanley Cup appearances, and their fatigue started to show last year in the Final against Colorado. Is it already starting to show now? The Lightning ended the season going 4-8 down the stretch and not getting over 100 points in the first time of what feels like a decade. We’re not going heavy, but we’re going to lay it with Toronto.
The Pick: Leafs in 6
The Bets: Future on the Leafs (See below), Leafs -150 (Degen)
Metro Divison
#2 NJ Devils (-125) Vs. #3 NY Rangers (+105)
The Subway Series! If you count the MTA, the Path, and an Uber as a subway. Either way - division rivals who play only a dozen miles apart should be nothing short of electric.
I must toot my horn when it comes to nailing the New Jersey Devils success. Not that I predicted it before the season started, but after 7 games I was all over it:
NJ went on to win the next 12 games after this tweet. I took them to make the playoffs at +130, and sprinkled to win the Cup 40/1. They are now sitting at 11/1 and the slight favorite in this series. As a Rangers fan, I can tell you that I am a bit concerned…
Despite NYR making some huge moves mid-season (Kane & Tarasenko), I can’t help but be a little concerned with Shesterkins regression this season. He didn’t look like the Vezina winner and rising star we had hoped for. For whatever reason - the Devils also seem to have his number. They are 2-1 agains the Rangers when starting Igor this year, and have scored 13 goals on him in those 3 games.
Take this pick with a grain of salt, as it’s more of a hedge and betting with emotions. I do think the Rangers playoff experience SHOULD ultimately help them advance.
The Pick: Rangers in 7
The Bet: Rangers +105 (Greg)
#1 Carolina Hurricanes (-192) Vs. #4 NY Islanders (+150)
Typically we are the ones to buy bad news, but after the loss of Andrei Svechnikov a few weeks ago, this Hurricanes team just hasn’t been themselves. As mentioned, we cashed out our futures tickets on the Canes shortly after the injury happened.
They may not get upset this early, but the Islanders are a pesky team. We also can’t help but think this line is a little short. A big part of playoff hockey is a hot goalie, and Sorokin for the Islanders has been as good as anyone this year.
The Pick: Islanders in 7
The Bet: Islanders to advance +160 (Greg)
Central Division
#1 Colorado Avalanche (-235) Vs. #4 Seattle Kraken (+190)
The defending champs have been awfully quiet this year, and yet somehow the ended up at the top of the Central Division. The loss of ‘22 Captain Gabriel Landeskog may eventually take its toll. But we’re not looking to fade the Avs as much as we are looking to back the Kraken.
Colorado and Seattle played twice this year. The series was split, but what I think is notable is that both games went into OT and both were low scoring. That’s exactly how the Kraken like to play hockey. They’re like the Islanders of the West - a very pesky bunch. Their main problem is the goaltending though. Jones and Grubauer are nothing to be excited about in net, but the team as a whole plays with a lot of pride and grit. For that, we will take a shot on this series being a lot closer than people expect.
The Pick: Avalanche in 7
The Bet: Avs 2-1 after 3 games +105 (Fanduel), Kraken +2.5 games -220 (Fanduel)
#2 Dallas Stars (-130) Vs. #3 Minnesota Wild (+110)
One of the best firs around series. Dallas has been an ass chapper, and you know how we feel about those type of teams. At the same time it’s tough to dismiss a Minnesota team who continues to play their best hockey when you count them out.
I chose to fade the Stars on their season win total this season, and it was absolutely MISERABLE. I chose to do this mainly based on Debeor as their HC, who I am not a huge fan of. But he did a great job, and so did that front office of putting together and fantastic roster. If this team isn’t winning, they are losing by 1 goal in OT. Not sure I saw it happen more often in my lifetime.
As we’ve pointed out with the Islanders and Kraken being pesky, the Stars are like that…but on steroids. This team is the definition of a “tough out” and that’s what I like to invest in. Greg bought in with the Leafs, but I’m going to dabble with another team in the West and go with Dallas 16/1.
The Pick: Stars in 7
The Bet: Stars to advance -130 (Greg & Degen), Stars to win Cup 16/1 (Degen)
Pacific Division
#1 Vegas Golden Knights (-165) Vs. #4 Winnipeg Jets (+140)
One of the best teams in the West against a team that clinched at the buzzer. Maybe the new coach in Vegas has them primed for a run, or maybe after another successful regular season, the Knight fall short when it matters most.
The Knights still have a talented roster, but were lacking in net. They made a “win-now” desperation trade with the Kings to get Johnathan Quick. We all know he’s well past his prime, but he’s still an upgrade to what they had. But the Knights play slow, and the so do the Jets, but Winnipeg has the advantage in goal with Hellebuyck.
If you attend the daily Board Reviews, you’re probably familiar with our guy Phurl who we think is one of the sharpest hockey minds in #gamblingtwitter. He’s been ringing the bell on Jets 40/1 as a sleeper team heading into these playoffs for the past few weeks. Now with this series matchup set, we can’t help but notice this line is SHORT. The Knights opened -190 and are now down to -165, and this is with getting Mark Stone back in the lineup. Does someone know something? Is that someone Phurl? Can’t wait to find out.
The Pick: Jets in 6
The Bet: Jets to advance +140 (Greg & Degen & Phurl)
#2 Edmonton Oilers (-225) Vs. #3 LA Kings (+180)
Could this be the year a Canadian team wins the Cup? I certainly fucking hope so. Before the season started, I placed two future bets to win it all. One in the East (Canes) and one in the West. I was choosing between the Flames and the Oilers. My plums told me one of these teams finally stops fucking around and makes a serious run. I chose Edmonton at 15/1, and it appears I made the right decision.
However, I’m a big nervous. Why? Because they might be peaking a little too early. I don’t necessarily want teams slumping into the playoffs, but I hate when they’re red hot. It rarely bodes well. The Oilers ended the season going 16-2 and also beat the Kings twice. McDavid and his supporting cast are firing on all cylinders, but the goalie situation is still a problem. Full disclosure: I actually didn’t hate Jack Campbell, but he fucking stinks. Thankfully once backup Stuart Skinner has been playing well, but they are really going to rely on him staying healthy to have a chance at winning it all. The Kings are tough, but we don’t think the Oilers run ends here.
The Pick: Oilers in 5
The Bet: Oilers to advance (Greg)
Notable Futures:
Oilers to win the Cup 15/1 (Degen)
Devils to win the Cup 45/1 (Degen)
Avalanche to win the Cup +350 and +700 (Greg)
Maple Leafs to win the East +500 (Greg)
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