Peak Fall
Winning Saturday, Painful Sunday
Favorites back on top in the NFL
The weather is turning, the leaves are changing. We continue to thrive in college but couldn’t be more lost in the NFL. Something’s gotta give.
We called an executive meeting on Wednesday Night to hash out our thoughts and put together a card in real time. Check it out on The Board Review podcast here:
We’ve lived in the Substack world for about 4 years now. There are a handful of other writers we’ve reached out to and collaborated with over the years, and one we want to highlight is NFL Spread Investor .
They’re worth checking out. If you’re the kind of guy who is looking to pay for picks (not our thing, but no shame) they’re offering a 10% discount to the service with the link above. PROMO CODE: The Degenerate
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 15-16 (-7.57 Units)
CFB: 27-14-1 (+11.16 Units)
NFL WEEK 7
Holy underdog adjustment. After thriving the first five weeks of the season, dogs got Ole Yeller’ed in week 6. It was the weekend a public bettor dreams of.
Favorites went 10-3-1
Overs went 10-3-1
We’re throwing a few curve balls on our best bets because full fading back-to-back weeks requires some sort of action.
No excuses, Week 7 is our time!
Chargers vs Cardinals +2.5 Total 43.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 1-5
This 1-5 record pains my soul. The biggest mistake was fading Jayden Daniels twice. The second biggest mistake was betting on the Jaguars last week. Many regrets, but in this game, I am at peace with my decision.
When Kyler Murray is healthy, the Arizona Cardinals love playing Jeckyll & Hyde. There are times when Murray looks like an MVP candidate, and then there are times you think he’s too short to play quarterback. It’s a nonstop battle of choosing to believe in him or not. But when I do like Murray, it’s as an underdog.
The Los Angeles Chargers find themselves with a 3-2 record on the season. They just treated us well with a win and cover in Denver as they made our 5 plays in the Circa Millions contest. As I followed the game, I noticed that the Chargers once again got out to a strong start. I also noticed (as I was with my wife while she was shopping for shoes and I was staring at my phone on the verge of panic) that late in the 4th quarter they fell asleep again. In the last three games the Chargers have scored a combined 3 points in the 2nd half. They had a lead at half-time in each game, and blew it twice to the Steelers and Chiefs. They almost made it a third time against Bo Nix as he mounted a valiant comeback with 6 rushes for 61 yards.
Arizona is not known to be a defensive juggernaut by any means. However, I do think they deserve some credit for shutting out both the Niners and the Lions in the second half. Even last week in Green Bay, the Cardinals defense only allowed one 2H touchdown. This while the offense turned the ball over 3 times (all fumbles). I think there MIGHT be something to hone in on with HC Jonathan Gannon being able to make adjustments. On top of that, I also look at the offenses and quarterbacks the Chargers have played this season:
Bo Nix
Pat Mahomes
Justin Fields
Bryce Young
Gardner Minshew
If you exclude Mahomes, it’s debatable that no team has faced weaker offenses through the first 6 weeks. I respect Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, but not entirely sure I respect their defense. I think the Cardinals are going to put up some points in this game. If that’s the case, I trust Gannon’s ability to limit a Chargers offense that lacks firepower, and Kyler Murray off of two losses as a home dog. Arizona had 13 penalties and 3 turnovers last week. They were also riding high after a road win against San Fran. I say they clean it up and bounce back.
The Pick: Cardinals +2.5 (-115) - DK
Seahawks at Falcons -3 Total 50.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-2
I want to stay true to the system with only one best bet. But I have to be transparent: I’m playing the Seahawks +3 AND Seahawks TTO 23.5. Pick your pleasure, but I’m playing both for multiple units and there is nothing you can do to stop me.
The Seahawks started the year 3-0, everything was sunshine and roses under the new coach. Then they had 3 games in 10 days. Not only that, but 2 of those 3 were against the teams in last years NFC Championship. A brutal stretch where they came away battered and bruised.
From 3-0 to 3-3, but after the 49ers loss they got 10 days of rest. Critical for a new coaching staff and a team that was starting to pile on some injuries. Geno Smith is a much different QB when he has pressure on him versus a clean pocket, and the Falcons have struggled to generate pressure all year. I think he is going to have a field day and you can say the same with Kenneth Walker. Geno is quietly having himself a year and the offense is primed to have a big week. Hell, he’s leading the NFL in passing yards!
The Falcons are in the middle of the most important stretch of their season. Over a five game period they play four divisional opponents. So far they are 3-0 with a massive matchup in Tampa on deck. This Falcons team has a ton of talent on offense, but they are due to come back to reality after consecutive monster performances against weak defenses.
This is a line in the sand game for Mike Macdonald. If the Seahawks lose, they have Buffalo next week and all of a sudden they’re 3-5. Must stop the bleeding. Must win.
Macdonald was a phenomenal D Coordinator in Baltimore and now he’s had 10 days to prepare for Kirk Cousins with his season slipping away.
The Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115) FD
Ravens at Buccaneers +3.5 Total 49.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-4
You wanna make an omelet, you gotta break a few eggs.
You wanna end a cold streak, you gotta switch up the flow.
Absolutely everything about this game screams over. The Bucs offense is cooking and Baker should be able to find plenty of success against the Ravens secondary.
The Ravens love to pound the rock and the Bucs have struggled against the run.
But zoom in. This total being under 50 is a red flag. The Ravens have played six games, and all of them have gone over 45. The Bucs offense has put up 30+ in three straight games. Little suspicious if you ask Steak.
This looks like the easiest over on the board, and yet the total refuses to crack the 50 mark. Baker Mayfield and the Ravens are no strangers from his time in Cleveland and we could see this one being much tighter than people expect.
Steak says this is a big game against playoff bound teams in Primetime, and it's time for the D to hunker down.
The Pick: Total Under 49.5 (-110) FD
Raiders at Rams -7 Total 43.5
Just because we’re down and out doesn’t mean we aren’t trying to keep it nasty. Sure, our best bets have lost six in a row, but our other bets are on a four game heater. It’s all about perception, baby!
The Rams are coming off a BYE and Cooper Kupp looks to rejoin the offense. You would assume that fading McVay off a Bye is a losing strategy, but that’s not necessarily the case.
“In three games after a BYE with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the Rams are just 1-2 and have been outscored by 24 points. Stafford has five touchdowns and two interceptions in those games, throwing for fewer than 200 yards twice.” - Random Rams Blog
We don’t doubt the offense can get back on track, but our reason for fading the Rams this year has been all about Defense.
The Raiders just traded away Davonte Adams and we see this as potentially being a morale booster. He sat out the last two weeks. Basically saying “I don’t want to play with you losers anymore”, and Las Vegas did the right thing shipping him out.
The Raiders have tons of problems, but with bat shit crazy Maxx Crosby on D we think this is a game they get up for. If for nothing else but to ruin their chances of ever getting a strong 1st round draft pick.
The Pick: Raiders +7 (110) FD
Come on Over, Over: Texans at Packers Over 47.5
Get ready for a good ole fashioned Jordan Love + CJ Stroud shootout.
Is it public? Maybe. Do we like going to this over after both teams are coming off some of their best performance? Not really. But sometimes you gotta trust your football brain. The Packers are getting right, and we see this as being a back a forth battle as one of the best games of the weekend.
Houston has only gone over this number once this year and the Packers twice.
Give us some POINTS!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7
You can rewatch the stream with Degen, Steak and Jovan here:
Nebraska at Indiana -6.5
One of the best reads from our team previews this offseason was Indiana OVER 5.5 wins. They are currently 6-0. Bravo, Steak! Some of his best work. The reasoning was quite simple to be honest - trust in Curt Cignetti.
“I win, Google me” has to be one of the hardest quotes of all time. Curt has Indiana playing fearless. Now they’ve got their biggest home game in years as they welcome Nebraska. The Hoosiers have passed every challenge so far, and done so with ease. We say more of the same.
Meanwhile this is only Nebraska’s second road test, and the first was at Purdue, who is arguably one of the worst teams in the country. The Huskers got out to a VERY slow start in that game as they went into the 4th quarter with only a 7-3 lead, eventually winning 28-10. It wasn’t too much of a surprise given they have a true freshman at quarterback, but you cannot afford to have a sluggish start against Indiana. Bloomington is going to be rocking a whole lot harder than West Lafayette.
The Pick: Indiana -6.5 (-110)
Arizona St at Cincinnati -4.5
Shame on me for not having our guy Jovan feature this pick. Not only has he been on Cincinnati from the beginning of the season (we are on the win total over 5.5), but he’s been texting me about this game since Sunday. Marked on his calendar like he’s on the Bearcats coaching staff. Gotta love it, and gotta tail it.
You could say we are buying Cincy high here as they just beat UCF on the road as a 3.5 point dog, but that would be offset by Arizona States huge win at home against Utah. The Sun Devils have had a stellar season at 5-1, but they also haven’t been on the road in almost a month. The last time they were was a 30-22 loss at Texas Tech. We like the Bearcats to mimic what Tech did in that game - get out to an early lead, and minimize the damage Cam Skattebo is capable of doing. There’s been some steam on this as Cincy opened -3, but we don’t care.
The Pick: Cincinnati -4.5 (-110)
Alabama at Tennessee +3
It ain’t easy taking a road favorite in a top ranked SEC matchup, especially after that team just almost lost outright at home as a double digit favorite. But one thing we like doing is going to a team in their following road game after just disappointing - whether that be failing to cover or losing outright. In this case, Bama’s last road trip resulted in a 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt. Then they almost lose at home to South Carolina. Fans won’t get over this two week stretch till they win an SEC Championship, but in the meantime, a win against Tennessee should help.
The Vol’s have been winning, but it hasn’t been pretty. This Tennessee offense hasn’t looked great, and their defense has allowed teams to move the ball. Florida QB Graham Mertz started the game 11/15 125 1TD before being knocked out of the game with an injury. Even Arkansas QB Taylen Green outperformed Nico. Tennessee is playing with fire after barely scraping by, and we think a pissed off Bama who’s already tasted defeat is looking to avenge its last road performance by punching Tennessee in the mouth in front of it’s fans. Jalen Milroe masterclass incoming.
The Pick: Alabama -3 (-110)
Baylor at Texas Tech -6.5
Baylors season and Dave Arandas job is hanging on by a thread. The Bears currently sit at 2-4 after an ass whooping at Iowa St last week. We give them a bit of credit for clawing back into the game two weeks ago vs BYU, but overall this is not a scary team. You know what that makes us think? That Texas Tech went into the BYE week all fat and happy, and might come out of it slow and sluggish. Tech has had a 3 week stretch of beating Arizona St, Cincy and then at Arizona. Now they sit at 5-1, and we feel they certainly could be overlooking this below average Baylor team. Live dog!
The Pick: Baylor +6.5 (-110)
Kansas St at West Virginia +3
This is a Steak special. I personally don’t love fading teams that I’m high on in the offseason, which is what Steak wants to do here. He’s got K St every which way - to win conference and over win total, but this feels like a BAD spot after they just beat Colorado on the road. West Virginia failed to cover as a 3 point dog at home last week, and K St just won as a 4 point favorite on the road. It definitely feels a bit contrarian to take the team that just burned everyone. I’m always down to back WVU QB Garrett Greene. He ain’t big, but he’s a dawg. Mountain Mama!
The Pick: West Virginia +3 (-110)
UNLV at Oregon St +7
We’ll make this one short and sweet. It’s been cool to see UNLV perform well after their QB and RB left midseason. They had a tough loss to Syracuse, but the offense still did fine, and they put up a 50 burger last week at Utah State. Now the Rebels travel to Corvallis in their second straight road game. But it’s the opponent on deck that has us intrigued to get involved in this spot. Who’s coming to Las Vegas next week? Boise St and RB Ashton Jeanty, who’s currently the odds on favorite to win the Heisman. Look ahead!
The Pick: Oregon St +7 (-115) - DraftKings
RECAP:
NFL
Cardinals +2.5 (-110) - DK - Degen’s Best Bet
Seahawks +3 (-115) - FD - Greg’s Best Bet
Ravens/Bucs UNDER 49.5 (-110) - Steak’s Best Bet
Raiders +7 (-110)
Texans/Packers OVER 47.5 (-110)
CFB
Indiana -6.5 (-110)
Cincinnati -4.5 (-110)
Alabama -3 (-110)
Baylor +6.5 (-110)
West Virginia +3 (-110)
Oregon St +7 (-115) - DraftKings