PLAYOFF FOOTBALL
NFL Wildcard Weekend & College Football Semi-Final
Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls
It’s Wildcard Weekend
What a week of football we have ahead of us, and it all starts tonight.
Thursday - Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Friday - Ohio State vs. Texas
Saturday - Two NFL Wildcard Games
Sunday - Three NFL Wildcard Games
Monday - NFL Wildcard
Get your shit done now, because come 7:30pm it’s all pigskin.
Please do us a favor and follow the YouTube Page!
We’re trying to get 1,000 subscribers. This year we will be providing more content and interviews. Steak and I are going to the Orange Bowl tonight as well as the CFB National Championship game.
You can also rewatch all the Board Reviews and see our cool graphics made by our W mod Snide.
New Merch is now available!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 38-40-2 (-16.17 Units)
CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 18
A new season begins on Saturday.
Fourteen teams have dreams that they can make a run, and six of them will be squashed by Tuesday Morning. We’re turning the heat back up and going 2 units for our best bets.
We got the whole Degen Fam together on Wednesday to breakdown the slate. You can rewatch it here on the YouTube channel:
Vikings at Rams +1 Total 48 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD 11-6-1
The Rams have been an enigma of ours all season. Yes, we faded them with their win total under. No, it did not hit. I will still never forgive Kyle Shanahan for blowing that game earlier in the season and letting the Rams come back to win. If not for that, LA would have started 0-5 and I think the wheels could have fallen off.
Nevertheless, kudos to McVay and the Rams for battling back after a poor start. What’s been most impressive is their defense. The main reason we faded them was because they lost Aaron Donald and DC Raheem Morris. Thought that would be too challenging to recover from in one season. But they found a dog in Jared Verse in the draft and the rest of the unit has been playing great, especially to end the season where they held 3 of their last 4 opponents to under 10 points.
The problem for the Rams is I think they get the Vikings at a time when you don’t want to play the Vikings. I understand that LA was able to rest their starters in week 18 which was a much needed “BYE” week for this struggling offense, meanwhile the Vikings played a very meaningful game at Detroit. However, I see it from the other perspective. Minnesota got their asses kicked against the Lions. Throughout the course of an 18 week season, you’d think that wouldn’t have been the first time a team with a 6.5 win total and Sam Darnold at QB got rag dolled, but you’d be wrong. This Vikings team is not accustomed to those types of embarrassments.
For 17 weeks people celebrated the performance of Darnold and just two weeks ago talking about signing him to be their QB moving forward. But after the worst performance of the season, it feels like everyone is back to writing him off. There’s even been chatter about Daniel Jones playing. Give me a fucking break.
These teams met back in Week 7. The Rams won 30-20, and got whatever they wanted on offense accumulating almost 400 yards and 26 first downs. I have a hard time seeing that happening twice to a Brian Flores defense.
I like Minnesota to come out pissed off, but what I see in this game script is Kevin O’Connell making life easy for Sam. Less deep throws, more dink and dunks. A potential TJ Hockensen masterclass. Put together long methodical drives, and try to get Aaron Jones involved. I think the defense SHOULD have a better performance than they did last time around, but the best formula to beating the Rams is keeping their offense on the sideline. This rematch is all about the battle of time of possession. Tick tick tick!
The Pick: UNDER 48 (-110)
Packers at Eagles -4.5 Total 45.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-13
One day I’ll break out of this slump. Maybe this weekend, maybe not till next year.
I’ve had bad beats, I’ve had blowouts.
I’ve tried contrarian, I’ve tried public.
Now, it’s time to trust my heart and my football brain… Onward!
The biggest question surrounding this game is the status of Jalen Hurts.
After suffering a concussion early in Week 16, Hurts has remained sidelined for the last two weeks. I’m sure that’s part concussion protocol and part not having much to play for as the Eagles were pretty much locked into the #2 Seed after a loss to the Commanders. The key point here being: missing nearly three weeks then coming into a Playoff atmosphere is cause for concern. Quarterback’s who sit out for a week from a concussion show a noticeable decline in performance in their return.
The Eagles biggest problem this year has been putting up points early. They didn’t score a 1st quarter touchdown until Week 9. They got another in Week 10 and Week 16. The backups were a different story, but with Hurts leading the charge it’s surprising that a 14-3 team only had early success on a small handful of games. Pair that with the rust from Hurts missing three weeks and I think we get a sloppy game out of the gate.
The Packers have had their problems early against quality opponents. In both games against the Lions and the Vikings they were down double digits at the half. However, in all those games LaFluer was able to make halftime adjustments and put together a significant push in the second half.
With all the (deserved) hype around King Henry and Saquon this year, there was another offseason running back acquisition that proved to be worth its weight in gold.
With Christian Watson out for the season I think the Packers find a way to lean on Jacobs even more than usual to keep the dominate Eagles offense off the field as much as possible. Easier said than done, but I’m trusting in LaFluer to put together a scheme to minimize the damage from the Eagles offense by keeping the ball away from them.
Seeing the Eagles open at -3.5 felt like the “free” bet on the board to casual and pro bettors alike when the lines opened. Who can blame them, favorites have been winning and covering at an astronomical rate this year.
After a regular season of chalk, I’m calling for some chaos in the Playoffs.
The Pick: Packers +4.5 (-110) DK
Chargers at Texans +2.5 Total 42.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 6-11-1
Steak doesn’t always love points. But when he likes ‘em, he LOVES ‘em.
The Chargers are another team that it feels like every pro bettor is on early. Makes sense, as the Texans have limped into the Playoffs.
Too close to call a side, but Steak likes both offenses to find a groove and put up points.
The Texans are riding about as low as you can get coming into the Playoffs. Sure they just looked good in Week 18, but the Titans aren’t a real team this year. The Chargers have been cruising, putting up 30+ in the last three weeks.
DeMeco Ryans can’t think he is going to win this game and only put up 20 points. Steak says look for Houston to be aggressive offensively and the Chargers to keep on rolling. Exact Score prediction: 27-20 Chargers.
The Pick: OVER 42.5 (-110) DK
Orange Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Penn State +1.5 Total 45.5
A few things to disclose about this game before we get into the nitty gritty. In case you already weren’t aware: A) I am a Notre Dame fan and B) Steak and I will be boots on ground.
When you look at this matchup, the first thing you probably think of is defense and a low scoring grudge match. At first, that’s where my mind went as well, especially after seeing Notre Dame hold Georgia to 10 points and Riley Leonard only pass for 90 yards. I then sat down and did some scouting, and started to convince myself even more than the under was the right side. I went back and watched the Big 10 Championship game. What stood out was Oregon’s defense not being all that great, which was one of Penn State and Drew Allars better games where they put up 35 against the Ducks. In my opinion, Notre Dames defense will be a much bigger challenge.
Then, I talked to Steak, and he started to make me come around to points. First and foremost if you check the line movement, it appears the total opened 47 and has been bet down to 45. This makes a ton of sense to me. Almost too much sense. If I was a pro bettor, I would make this number in the lower 40’s and see value. But I’m not a pro bettor - i’m an asshole. The way my brain works is now I am wondering if that opener is telling.
Steak had a great point on The Board Review (which you can go back and watch on YouTube). These are two teams with similar skillsets, similar skill levels, and that will require the offense to be turned up. He sees each side being more aggressive, and I’m starting to agree. Notre Dame played a Georgia QB making his first start and the Irish defense dominated. Riley Leonard only passed for 90 yards but he also wasn’t asked to do much. On the other hand, Penn State played SMU and Boise St, where they didn’t need to be aggressive at all in the second half of those games.
All things considered, we’ve come to the conclusion that we like points early and often. I don’t think Penn State is going to see the same success running the football they’ve seen in the past five games. This will require the game-plan to adjust and Allar to throw the ball more.
Jovan had a great point in the twitter spaces we held in that he thinks Notre Dame will get aggressive and pass on early downs to not find themselves in too many 2nd and 3rd and longs. This makes even more sense considering the Jeremiyah Love injury appears to be quite serious. I think I wan to buy low on Leonard having a nice game through the air, and if I had to take a player prop, it would be Irish TE Mitchell Evans over receptions. Hope to walk out with an Irish victory (and to beat traffic!)
The Pick: ND/PSU OVER 45 (-110)
Cotton Bowl
Ohio State vs. Texas +5.5 Total 53.5
When this line opened at -6.5, I was actually shocked because I thought it was about 2-3 points short. Not that I am disrespecting Texas – it’s just that Ohio State has looked THAT good against Tennessee and Oregon.
I posted these thoughts on twitter and was surprised that most of the comments agreed in that they were going to bet on Ohio State. I thought there would be a few more people willing to take the points on Texas, but it would appear as though the majority is already crowning OSU. To be totally honest, we can’t blame them. Steak said he thought the winner of Oregon/OSU would win it all, and he still stands by that. But he is a little surprised at the reaction from the Buckeye fanbase as it feels they are already celebrating and looking on to the Natty. Can’t help but think that Texas might find a way to make this game competitive.
I personally came around to the under after scouting Penn State. One of my biggest takeaways ended up being very unimpressed with Oregon’s defense. They were not big, strong, fast or disciplined. I was shocked. Then you look at what Ohio St just did to them and it doesn’t impress me quite as much. Also, Tennessee was just a total mismatch and had no business being on that field. I have to imagine that Texas D will give Will Howard and this offense more fits, similar to what we saw Michigan do.
The Pick: Ohio State/Texas UNDER 53.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Vikings/Rams UNDER 48 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Packers +4.5 (-110) - Greg’s Best Bet
Chargers/Texans OVER 42.5 (-110) - Steak’s Best Bet
CFB
ND/PSU OVER 45 (-110)
Ohio State/Texas UNDER 53.5 (-110)