Ride the Hot Hand
NFL Week 2 & College Football Week 3
Sunday, Money, Sunday
A winning Saturday and a perfect Sunday.
Hot start, but let’s not get carried away. It’s September 13th - lotta season left. Some would argue, the entire season.
Reminder that our NFL best bets will be 2 units. Also, we calculate as “bet to risk”. You can wager however you please and feel most comfortable. Bet responsibly, and if you tail, do so at your own discretion. Just because we did well last week doesn’t mean we can’t fall flat this week. Always humble.
Thank you to the new subscribers and welcome to The Degenerate Newsletter!
We send out our best bets every Friday morning by 8am EST. And a HUGE thank you to those who pledged their support. We’ll keep saying it because it won’t change - the weekly newsletter (and all of our content) will always be free. Your contribution to support our work is greatly appreciated, and will only be put back into the Degenerate so we can continue to grow and keep providing you with sports betting entertainment. We’re trying to come up with something special for paid subs. If you have any ideas or anything you’d like to see, reach out on Twitter, comment below, or just shoot us a note on Substack.
Okay, now let’s get to work!
If you’re going to any games this weekend, be sure to use promo code “DEGEN” for $20 off your first purchase with SeatGeek.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 5-0 (+7.12 Units)
CFB: 6-4 (+1.46 Units)
NFL WEEK 2
This is a tough, tough board. We aren’t getting conservative just because we found some success. If anything, when you’re hot, you should press. If you’re cold, you should scale back. However these lines really didn’t speak to us. We spent a lot of time and energy coming up with our final plays. Again, please tail (or fade) at your own discretion.
Giants at Commanders -1.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
As a New York resident, I still remember walking through Midtown Manhattan and hearing the “MVP! MVP!” chants for Daniel Jones during the 2022 season. There was practically a mini parade with balloons and confetti. I even walked under some scaffolding where champagne dripped onto me as the construction workers were celebrating that playoff win against the Minnesota Vikings…
Okay none of that happened, but people REALLY liked Daniel Jones. I have never understood the hype, nor do I think he should have ever been drafted 6th overall.
The Giants were the only team to not score a touchdown last week. Pretty impressive for a home opener and an entire offseason to prepare. But this is nothing new. Last season they lost to the Cowboys in 40-0 in Week 1. What did they do the following week? Go on the road and beat the Arizona Cardinals 31-28.
This time of year is all about overreactions. However, saying the Giants are putrid and Daniel Jones should be cut is not an overreaction. Make no mistake - this is a bad football team that will not win many games. Yet, I think this Week 2 matchup is exactly what Daboll and the Giants need for a little life support.
Washington just lost to the Bucs 37-20 down in Tampa. Scoring 20 points might make it seem like they put up a fight, but they did not. The Bucs got whatever they wanted on offense, and if it weren’t for Jayden Daniels legs, the Commanders may have lost 37-3. The rookie QB only completed 5 passes to wide receivers, and coach Dan Quinn has said they don’t want him running the ball as much. That’s a smart strategy to protect him from getting injured, but that is a terrible strategy if you want to win games. Baker Mayfield had an 81% completion rate and threw for 4 touchdowns. This Washington Commanders secondary is BAD.
Similar to last season, I think the New York Giants start out getting embarrassed, and then muster up a road win. A little oxygen for Danny and the coaching staff.
NOTE: I did tweet this out earlier in the week as I knew it would be my best bet immediately when I looked at the board. I was hoping the line would move towards Washington, but unfortunately a “market influencer” released the Giants. I know what you’re thinking, and no - I was not that market influencer ;) but for tracking purposes we will give out the current number at the time the newsletters come out, as we feel that is only right and fair.
The Pick: Giants +1.5 (-110)
Rams at Cardinals -1.5 Total 49 (Greg’s Best Bet)
If you’ve been following us long enough you know one of our cardinal (pun intended) rules is not to buy bad news. However, in some cases rules are meant to be broken…and this is one of them.
Any other time we might see the Rams injury report and think about buying, but not this week. Not against the Arizona Cardinals, not with the Rams coming off a Playoff revenge spot in Detroit, not with rival and nemesis Kyle Shanahan on deck next week.
Yes, the Puka injury is big. The O-line injuries are even bigger. Two additional guys on the line are on the injury report and might miss time as well. Compounding injuries are never a great time to buy in. But back to why this is bad news I am buying:
The Cards being favored against the Rams is a HUGE deal. The Rams have absolutely owned their division “rival” winning 13 of the last 15 matchups.
The line flipped in Zona’s favor after the injury report, but it’s important to note - this is the first time the Cardinals have been favored in 27 games.
If you read the pre-season future write-ups you know I’m a buyer on Arizona this year. And with Steak and Degen selling the Rams, I see this as a “trust your instinct” game.
Red Bird, Red Bird what do you see? I see a pile of cash looking at me…
The Pick: Cardinals ML (-120)
Bengals at Chiefs -6 Total 47.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
When Steak is on the ledge there is no stopping him.
Tell him the Chiefs are a wagon, no reaction. Tell him Burrow can’t grab a water bottle, he’ll add another unit. Tell him Taylor Swift will be in the box, he’s taking the money line.
The days of Burrowhead are long gone to your average bettor, but it’s worth noting that Joe Burrow is the only guy currently in the AFC who has gone head to head with Pat Mahomes in the playoffs and come out with a victory. That carries a lot of weight.
Tee Higgins status still seems unknown but sounds like he’s unlikely to play, and the Ja’Marr Chase situation seems to be working itself out (on the playing field at least).
The Bengals had one of the worst losses of Week 1. Big favorites losing at home to a bad Patriots team. Take away a goal line fumble and a punt fumble, and that game (and peoples perception of the Bengals) is much different.
Certainly not excited about fading the Chiefs, but the time to do it is early in the season - after a win over the Ravens when everyone is singing thier praises.
The Pick: Bengals +6 (-115) - Draftkings
Raiders at Ravens -8.5 Total 41.5
First round draft pick, Joe Alt, shut down Maxx Crosby. Antonio Pierce is being ripped apart for an all-time cowardly punt on 4th & 1. The Raiders had two fumbles and missed a field goal. And yet…they were right in the game with the Chargers. The Raiders had the lead at halftime despite those two turnovers and a missed FG.
The box score is very different than how the game actually played out. You can call Antonio Pierce a bad coach all you want, but call him a coward and we think he will bite back.
People forget, but Minshew beat the Ravens last year as a Colt. He may not have the weapons, but we think he’s got the defense to do it again. Well…maybe not win, but at least cover the 8.5.
The Ravens O-line has some holes and that’s the area where Oakland Las Vegas can exploit, as they have one of the better D-lines in the NFL. We like the Raiders to give the Ravens fits, and do just enough on offense to keep it close.
The Pick: Raiders +8.5 (-110)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA!
Saints at Cowboys UNDER 46.5 (-110)
We typically like to include one total in our plays. Last week we went with an Over, thinking that Unders era is behind us from the absurd starts to 2022 and 2023. We were right about the overs, but not for the reasons we thought. See the note below from Adam Chernoff on his Simple Handicap Podcast:
Totals went 9-7 to the over last week. BUT only one QB passed for over 300 yards. What gives? There were 7 more 50+ yard FG’s in Week 1 than any other week in NFL history. Teams are attempting long FG’s at a higher rate due to the kickoff changes, and hitting at an insane clip.
So that’s one reason for jumping off the Over train so soon. The other is we just LOVE this Under.
Two of the most dominating Week 1 performances: the Cowboys put up 33 and the Saints 47. But if you dig a little further, we think there are legit reasons to not overreact too much with these offenses.
First one being - Carolina might be terrible. The Panthers couldn’t get any pressure on Carr, and he is a very different QB when he’s under duress. Pressure shouldn't be an issue for the Cowboys defensive front. Not to mention the Saints also benefited from 2 Bryce Young interceptions. As for Dallas - they only had 265 yards of total offense and 15 first downs. Granted, they weren’t asked to do THAT much after building an early lead, but there was a lot left to be desired offensively if you take away the quick start and the punt return for at touchdown.
It certainly won’t be pretty - but it’s Thunder Under Season!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3
CMU at Illinois -20
This is my best bet of the weekend. I (Degen) will be posting a video breakdown every weekend of my NFL and CFB best bets. Follow them on the YouTube Channel.
But of course, I’ll put them in text for the readers.
This is really about fading Illinois in what I feel is a terrible scheduling spot. If you’ve followed us for a while, you know by now that we LOVE finding look aheads and letdowns in College sports (applies to basketball as well). Illinois just beat Kansas as a 5.5 point underdog. Now they face a CMU team that just got their ass kicked at FIU, the week before they go on the road and play Nebraska on a short week (in Lincoln on Friday).
CMU looked terrible and turned the ball over 6 times at FIU, but that was a whacky game. It was 100 degrees and the first game in FIU stadium after Pitbull aka Mr 305 bought the naming rights to. Not sure there is a worse time play FIU, in FIU, in the history of FIU.
Also, I personally punched this in at +20 on Tuesday, but the line has moved. We will track it at the current number, and I also added another unit to show that I am confident in this play. I would personally play this down to 18 or even 17.5.
The Pick: CMU +18.5 (-110)
Alabama at Wisconsin +16.5 Total 49
The change to the air raid offense has not quite taken off for Wisconsin. I’ve talked about how much I loved the Luke Fickell hire, and will be looking to time the success of this team for profit. I almost went heavy on them in year 1 of this experience, but elected not to and saved a few units.
It didn’t work out with QB Tanner Mordecai, so now the Badgers have welcomed in Tyler Van Dyke from Miami. I thought this kid had potential, but his first two starts have not overly impressed. Wisconsin has started the season playing WMU and South Dakota. They won both, but failed to score more than 28 points, and TVD has failed to throw for over 214 yards. That’s not anything to get excited about, but I have confidence the offense will find success as the season progresses. Is it worth noting that TVD’s best game of his career came against an SEC defense when Texas A&M played at Miami last year? Maybe…but maybe not.
Alabama failed to cover last week against USF. I know because we bet them (fuckers). They were in a dog fight with the Bulls at home till the 4th quarter when Bama opened up the scoring. This isn’t your typical Bama defense with Nick Saban in charge. There were opportunities for USF and they did a decent job at moving the ball, racking up 21 first downs and 200+ yards rushing. Jalen Milroe is my Heisman pick, and he hasn’t really gotten off to THAT hot of a start. I think what he needs is a big game on a big stage, because that’s when big time players show up. My gut tells me Bama rolls in this one, but we feel more confident in points being scored.
The Pick: Over 49 (-110)
Tulane at Oklahoma -13.5
Nothing weird or suspicious about this line. We also talked last week about trying to avoid big home favorites, as we got burned by Va Tech and Alabama. But this is just too bad of a spot for Tulane for us not to fade.
The Green Wave just got up for a massive home game against Kansas St. They were in control of that game until late in the 4th quarter, till Kansas St scored 14 unanswered, including a fumble scoop and score with 8 minutes left. That’s a tough loss to recover from, especially after their QB played so well throwing for 342 yards and 2 TDs.
Oklahoma didn’t really impress, failing to cover a big spread and barely beating Houston, but we think this Brett Venables defense is going to be ready to play and smell blood in the water with a deflated Tulane team.
The Pick: Oklahoma -13.5 (-110)
UAB at Arkansas -24
Arkansas came out absolutely swinging on the road last week at Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, they blew a 21-7 lead and even failed to cover the +7.5 in OT. Condolences to any Hog backers, that was tough. I didn’t watch the end of the game, but apparently Sam Pittman made some poor decisions and is on the hot seat. You know what can cool that down? A few wins against SEC opponents, which they have coming up AFTER this home game against UAB.
Strictly a fade of the scheduling spot. Arkansas back home after a dog fight of a road game, the week before they go back on the road to play Auburn and then Texas A&M. Let’s see if we can catch the Razorbacks sleep walking here.
The Pick: UAB +24 (-110) - MGM
USF at Southern Miss +11.5
Ending this weekends picks with some real nasty teams, but sometimes that’s how you have to make money in football. The good teams don’t necessarily cover spreads (Oregon is 0-2 ATS). The board is tough, so that’s why we are really leaning into the scheduling spots, no matter who the teams are. Tunnel vision!
This Southern Miss team might be very bad. They lost 31-0 to Kentucky in week 1, who we just found out is very bad. You don’t realize it till it’s too late, but occasionally taking a double digit home dog ends up being a duping. It’s early in the season so we are willing to take some chances, because this spot for USF is just horrible.
We talked about in the Alabama write up how the Bulls were competitive for 3 quarters on the road last week. Now they go back on the road to Birmingham, the week before they host Miami. This is a PRIME lookahead spot that needs fading.
The Pick: Southern Miss +11.5 (-115) - MGM
RECAP:
NFL
Giants +1.5 (+110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Cardinals ML (-120) - Greg’s Best Bet
Bengals +6 (-115) - Steak’s Best Bet
Raiders +8.5 (-110)
Saints/Cowboys UNDER 46.5 (-110)
CFB
CMU +18.5 (-110)
Alabama/Wisconsin OVER 49.5 (-110)
Oklahoma -13.5 (-110)
UAB +24 (-115)
Southern Miss +11.5 (-110)