Shaking off the Rust
NFL Week 4 & College Football Week 5
High Highs & Low Lows
Perfect Saturday, Nightmare Sunday
A 5-0 Saturday was quickly forgotten with an UGLY Sunday.
Due to come back to reality in the NFL, but we certainly didn’t expect a crash that hard. Regardless, there were some lessons learned. As the kids say - we move.
If you care to tap-in on why we won’t be betting on Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins anytime soon, you can check out our new segment: Degen’s Film Room on the YouTube page.
The Board Review is also now on Apple and Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 9-7 (+3.10 Units)
CFB: 15-7 (+6.61 Units)
NFL WEEK 4
Almost a full month of football under our belts and the “newness” of the 2024 season is starting to wear off. From a gambling perspective, the big story thus far has been underdogs hitting at a high rate, specifically at the +5.5 number and on the ML. We leaned into it last weekend, but unfortunately picked a bunch of dogs with no bite.
This week is about getting back to our roots. Finding our spots and ignoring the games where we have no clue what to do (looking at you Browns vs. Raiders).
Onward and upward to a bounce back Week 4.
IF YOU’RE GOING TO ANY GAMES THIS WEEKEND BE SURE TO USE SEATGEEK PROMO CODE “DEGEN” FOR $20 OFF YOUR FIRST PURCHASE
Commanders at Cardinals -3.5 Total 50 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 1-2
What the Washington Commanders have done the past two weeks is nothing short of amazing. If you live under a rock, perhaps this tweet can get you up to speed:
Jordan is right. Everyone should be taking a bow. Just to add a bit more context to that tweet - it’s a rookie QB in the second and third game of his career, with an OC in his first year back after being fired, and one of the games was on MNF. You’re now seeing some long shot MVP tickets being talked about on Jayden Daniels at 150/1 by a few sports betting accounts. You are also seeing some talk of the Commanders winning the NFC East. Overreactions? Of course, but I won’t be the no fun police. Live a little!
You most likely know I bet on Jayden Daniels to win the heisman last year. I do not remind people of this as any sort of brag, but rather to establish some credibility when talking about him as a player. He’s awesome, and he was a great fit for Brian Kelly at LSU. I attacked his rushing yards in his Week 1 debut at Tampa because I didn’t feel that he would be a confident passer early in his professional career. Well, I might be very wrong about that. He threw some fucking DIMES on the road in Cincinnati, and is playing very smart football. In a season where QB play and offensive execution has been piss poor, Jayden has been a breath of fresh air. But we also may have totally underestimated how good of an OC Kliff Kingsbury can be. In my opinion, he’s called two perfect games in a row, and Jayden has executed them flawlessly. Enjoy it, Commanders fans…because I’m not so sure this will last forever.
(Kliff Kingsbury’s house in Arizona during the NFL Draft when he was the Cardinals Head Coach)
I built you up, and now I’m going to tear you down (a little). Unfortunately I do not see this type of offensive output being sustainable. The Commanders travel to Arizona on a short week after a big primetime win against the Bengals. This is also their third road game in 4 weeks. If you take a step back, you also realize that the Commanders have benefited from playing the Bucs, Giants and Bengals defenses. When it’s all said and done, these might be some of the worst in the league. Now I’m not here to pitch that the Cardinals D will be that much better, but I do think it’s somewhat impressive they held the Rams to 10 points and shutout the Lions in the 2H. Perhaps Jonathan Gannon knows who to run a defense.
Ultimately, I’m fading the Commanders in what I feel is a tough scheduling spot. I don’t think they get shutout and all of a sudden commit multiple turnovers, but I do think regression is inevitable. I still think both teams score, especially with Kyler Murray off an underwhelming performance against Detroit (21/34 207 1TD 1INT). Kliff Kingsbury revenge game is the popular narrative here, but I think it’s Kyler who puts on a show in front of his former coach. Cards 38-21.
The Pick: Cardinals -3.5 (-105)
Rams at Bears -3 Total 41 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 3-0
The generational talent of Caleb Williams in Chicago is not off to a hot start.
The Bears have a 1-2 record while his predecessor, Justin Fields, is sitting at 3-0 in Pittsburgh. Some (unwarranted) murmurs have begun as to whether or not Caleb is the real deal. Relax people - it’s been THREE games. He’s shown significant progress week over week. For once, the Bears have put their QB in a position to succeed with plenty of talent around him.
This chart may not seem like much, but in 2024, it’s very promising.
Through 48 games of action this year only ten QB’s have gone for 300+ yards in a game. Two have gone for 350+.
Defensive adjustments and a slow start from offenses have stifled the big QB numbers of yesteryear. Offenses are slowly adjusting and this appears to be kicking off some rust, rather than as season long trend.
Now the Rams come to Chicago after a “win at all cost” divisional game against the 49ers at home. This will also be the Rams 3rd away game in 4 weeks AND their first game outdoors.
Seeing the Bears open as short favorites (-1) initially caught my eye and despite them getting bet up to (-3) I’m still going all in. This defense is for real and Caleb might be starting to put it together. What better spot for a true breakout performance than against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
The Rams allow a first down or touchdown every 2.9 plays, the worst rate in the NFL.
The Bears’ offense averages a first down or touchdown every 4.6 plays, the worst rate in the league.
Something’s gotta give, and my money is on the Bears O breaking out and getting a much needed win at home over a Rams team that we do not believe in. This will also be the first game outside of a dome for LA this season. Windy City, do your thing!
The Pick: Bears -3 (-110) DK
Eagles at Buccaneers +1.5 Total 44 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-1
Nobody loves bad news like Steak loves bad news. There’s plenty of it to go around for the Eagles. Injuries are making a massive impact on what this offense can do, and Sirianni is making terrible decisions left and right.
The Eagles are short favorites on the road despite all the injuries. Perhaps the oddsmakers are factoring a revenge spot? Last year, to put an exclamation point on their collapse, Philly lost 32-9 at Tampa in the Wildcard Round. Yes, the team quit down the stretch, but you don’t forget a playoff drubbing quickly in this league.
The Bucs are coming off a game where they struggled to defend the run against Bo Nix and the Broncos. Philly’s run game is better in every capacity, which should ease the concerns of them missing DeVonte Smith and AJ Brown.
You say a team is missing a lot of starters on offense, Steak says buy the bad news on the money-line.
The Pick: Eagles ML (-120)
Broncos at Jets -7.5 Total 39.5
Hackett’s Revenge sounds like a straight to DVD (remember those) low budget horror film. Now we get Hackett’s Revenge II. In the sequel, Aaron Rodgers stars to avenge the claims against his beloved Nathaniel.
Aaron Rodgers is an interesting guy for several reasons, but one of the main ones is his immense loyalty to some of his former Packers. We’ve seen it in the Jets WR room with him bringing over Randall Cobb + Allen Lazard. You could be pretty confident Nathanial Hackett wouldn’t have rebounded as quick as he did to an OC spot after his disaster year in Denver if not for Rodgers.
Now the Broncos come to town after a game where they seemingly got the offense working, but a banged up Tampa D is much different that what they will see in NY.
The Jets being a big of a favorite in a game with a total under 40 tells us this D is going to have a stellar showing, and stifle any momentum the Broncos hoped to build. Denver might not get many chances with the way Rodgers is leading the offense - slowly and tactfully with long drives that chew up the clock.
It’s also Denvers third road game in 4 weeks. If you can’t already tell, this is a potential trend we are leaning into. There’s no data to back it up, so we are going to put our lab coat on and start experimenting. Tail at your own risk.
The Pick: Jets -7.5 (-110)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA!
Bills at Ravens UNDER 46.5
Our bets on the total are 1-2 this year. Time to get back to our roots with a good ole fashioned Thunder Under!
Josh Allen and the Bills could do no wrong on Monday night. Lamar and the Ravens finally had a much needed breakout game. Now they clash in Baltimore, and we think we see some smash mouthed, ground and pound football.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5
Friday Bonus Bet:
Steak - Washington at Rutgers -1.5
Washington has yet to play a game outside of the state of Washington. You think the first one being in fucking Piscataway is going to be smooth? A lot of people may see a trip to Lincoln next week for Rutgers as a look ahead game, but I do not. If I was going to fade Rutgers, I’d be looking to do it next week.
The Pick: Rutgers ML (-125)
USF at Tulane - 5 Total 64.5
The schedule makers were not kind to South Florida. They’ve had to play Alabama and Miami in a three week stretch. Sandwiched in between those games was a random trip to USM. After hanging with Miami last weekend for a few minutes, the Hurricanes pulled away and won 50-15. We just can’t fathom this team getting up for a road trip to Tulane, where the Green Wave want to put on a better showing for their home fans after blowing a late lead to K St the last time around. This spread and total feel telling, similar to Iowa State last weekend. We still get nervous about fading a good coach like Alex Golesh, so getting a bit cute with the team total.
The Pick: Tulane TT O 34.5 (-115)
Louisville at Notre Dame -6.5
You know how we bet College Football. There are look ahead and letdown spots that we try to identify throughout the season. Well, another spot that we’ve slept on is the revenge game. We just saw Clemson drop 59 on NC State in a revenge spot after a brutal loss to them last year. This is exactly why we want to target the Irish this week.
Last season, ND had a trip to Louisville the week before playing USC and the week after a gritty road win at Duke, and the Cardinals dominated. Time for the get back in South Bend.
There has certainly been some questionable moments for this Irish offense led by Riley Leonard, but they did find a little groove on the road at Purdue and in the 2H against Miami OH. The emphasis here has to be that ND cannot continue to get off to slow starts at home. Louisville is 3-0, but this is their first road test.
The Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110) - BetMGM
Arkansas vs Texas A&M -5.5 (Neutral Field)
I have no idea what happened to this spread overnight. When we formatted the newsletter and finalized our picks, the Aggies were -4. Now I wake up to put the finishing touches on this and the spread has jumped 1.5 points. We thought about removing, but Steak and I both are still going to play it so will officially count on our record. If you want to stay off because of the bad number, we don’t blame you one bit.
Ultimately, we feel this is a tough spot for Arkansas after a big win on the road in Auburn. Texas A&M appears to be going another week with their backup Marcell Reed at QB, while Connor Weigman is injured. Not to kick a man while he’s down, but to be totally honest - I’ve never really understood the Weigman hype. At one point on Hard Rock he was 11/1 to be the #1 overall pick. Insanity. Anyways, this Reed kid has looked damn good in OC Collin Kleins offense. We’re buying the new look Aggies.
The Pick: Texas A&M -5.5
UNC at Duke -2.5
Steak and Degen randomly got the cute idea to fade Duke last minute against MTSU last weekend, thinking that would be a lookahead spot for Duke. Good idea? No, it was miserable. UNC on the other hand just got embarrassed by a James Madison team that had no business doing that to them with half their team playing for the Indiana Hoosiers. Steak thinks we get a very focused and disciplined UNC team this week that’s posted for a big bounce back.
The Pick: UNC +2.5 (-105)
Illinois at Penn St -17.5
Steak and I discussed trying to avoid bigger spreads for newsletter plays, because they haven’t been doing well. But we can’t help ourselves here. Yes, the spread is large and very telling, but this bet is about more than that. This is a BRUTAL spot for Illinois. They’re off to a great start this season finding themselves 4-0 with wins against Kansas and Nebraska, but having to go from Lincoln to Happy Valley ain’t easy. Meanwhile Penn State may have realized they can’t fuck around anymore after that 34-27 scare against Bowling Green two weeks ago. Nittany makes it nasty.
The Pick: Penn St -17.5 (-110)
Cincinnati at Texas Tech -3.5 (Jovan’s Best Bet)
We had Jovan on The Board Review to talk College Football, and his pitch on Cincy was too good to ignore. He was nice enough to feature the play this week - here’s his write up:
This line surprised me a good bit seeing Cincy getting just about the same line as red-hot Arizona St got coming into Lubbock last week. Texas Tech has looked great the past 2 weeks and now gets to play a 3rd straight home game with all the momentum. Cincy has also won the last 2 weeks gutting out a rivalry game with Miami Ohio and dominating Houston. Something’s gotta give and I think it’s the spot where it comes crashing down for Texas Tech. Lubbock is a tough place to play but the trenches travel, and Cincy has both a veteran offensive line that returned all 5 starters and a physical D-Line led by Dontay Corleone. They’ve done a great job controlling the line of scrimmage which will be key especially on defense in keeping Tahj Brooks in check. I don’t think Texas Tech’s defense is physical enough to contain the Cincy offense nor am I really sold on Behren Morton being able to dominate a game like this through the air. Texas Tech has always been the poster child for Big 12 mediocrity especially in these big spots at home. You’d have to go back to 2014 to find back-to-back home wins in Big 12 play, and I’ll pay to find out if they can break that streak this week.
The Pick: Cincinnati +3.5 (-115) - Draftkings
RECAP:
NFL
Cardinals -3.5 (-105) - Degen’s Best Bet
Bears -3 (-110) DK - Greg’s Best Bet
Eagles ML (-120) - Steak’s Best Bet - Fanduel
Jets -7.5 (-105) - Fanduel
Bills at Ravens UNDER 46.5 (-110)
CFB
Rutgers ML (-125) - Fanduel
Tulane TT O 34.5 (-115) - Fanduel
Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)
Texas A&M -5.5 (-110)
UNC +2.5 (-105)
Penn St -17.5 (-110) - Fanduel
Cincinnati +3.5 (-115) - Jovan’s Best Bet - Drafkings