Situation Betting Spots (NCAAF), Trends & Early Leans

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Hello and Happy Thursday! We’re aiming to get these premium e-mails out on Wednesday evenings but unfortunately we were all very corp last night, so apologies for being late.

The last two weeks we’ve focused on “letdown” and “look-ahead” spots in College Football. For us, handicapping the sport is more about motivation than it is about the X’s and O’s. It’s hard to really get a feel for players in CFB who are are there for 2-3 years. Rather, we try to play situational spots and time the motivation. Our record in Week 1 (where we admittedly had no edge) was 2-7. Since then, we’ve gone 12-7-1. These “spots” are where we tend to find success.

After a loaded slate last weekend with six ranked matchups, this weekends board doesn’t pose quite as many spots as we’d like. However, we still like it, and think some of these lines are very telling. We’ll also be targeting some “bounce back” spots with teams such as SMU and Cal (will elaborate on this in tomorrows write ups). Also a new strategy we want to lean into more is after betting a team that was in a look ahead spot, we want to fade or bet on the opposite team. For example: we liked BYU against Arkansas, because Arkansas had LSU the following week. So we bet BYU +8.5 and they won straight up. Arkansas the following week +17.5 would have been the play. The only reason we stayed off is because I may have some LSU bias (holding a championship ticket).

Thank you again for your support! If you have any feedback on things you’d like for us to include in these e-mails, please let us know.