Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
Let’s get emotional. There’s so much to cherish about this special event. It’s more than which team is crowned champion of the free world. This is the one day a year EVERYONE wants to gamble. And we’re not talking spreads. Not over unders. No no no. We’re talking about…heads or tails. We’re talking about the length of the national anthem. Talking about Aunt Suzie listening to FM radio and getting a lean on which song Katie Perry will play first. How many air guitars will Aerosmith execute. What color with the Gatorade bath be. Will the first commercial be Snickers? Doritos? Or some fucked up parlay where Taco Bell has ‘em both in their newest 99 cent monstrosity?!? THIS, my friends, is what the Super Bowl is about.
You don’t need our guidance when it comes to the fun stuff. Go with your gut. Swing soft, swing hard, swing often. That’s our motto. There is nothing better than not realizing you had Julian Edelman to win MVP or Chiefs to win by exactly 11 until the games over. Now, for the actual game itself…let’s talk PROPS!
COIN TOSS:
Pick a side and take it to your grave. Tails is the peoples choice.
Too many weapons - Chief’s Player Props
Mahomes rushing yards OVER 21.5 (-145) – With both starting tackles out, expect the Bucs to bring the heat. David and White should have their hands full covering Kelce, and that should open the running lanes for Pat.
Mahomes first pass completion YES (-200) – Super Bowl first drive scripts tend to be a bit on the conservative side. Like a boxing match with each team feeling the other out. We expect a Pat to land his first jab.
CEH longest reception OVER 8.5 yards (-120) and CEH OVER 2.5 receptions (-120) – This ties back into Pat being under some pressure. He’s a great passer against the blitz, and Reek torched the Bucs secondary last time these two played. The focus will certainly be with him and Kelce. We can see some check downs, and best believe Andy’s got a few planned.
Sammy Watkins OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-145) – Sammy missed the last few games with injury, but he’s expected back here. Hard to prepare for a guy who hasn’t been on the field. Reid gets tactical and works him into a few nice plays.
Townsend to punt a touchback YES (+300) – The weather is expected to be windy with on and off showers. The Chiefs don’t punt much, bet the Bucs D to step up and take some light action given the 3/1 juice.
Fire the Cannons! (but only for the intro’s) - Player Props Bucs
Lenny UNDER 49.5 yards (-110) – Playoff Lenny has had a miraculous run for the Bucs. But that ends today. Chiefs are prepared and force Brady to throw…(or do they?)
Rojo OVER 36.5 yards (-120) – Short Lenny, Buy Rojo. Hasn’t had a breakout game in the playoffs – he’s due!
Rojo longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-120) – He’s going to bust one. That’s all we can really tell you. It’s going to happen. Ride the Rojo Rocket!
Evans OVER 4.5 catches (-120) – Mike Evans is the best receiver in Buccaneer history (take that Joey Galloway). Brady knows that, and will make sure he shines in this game. Tom forced a few too many bad ones in Green Bay that led to interceptions. They’ll get it fixed.
Godwin rush attempt YES (+220) – Can’t help but love the last play call to ice the game in Green Bay. Wide Receiver sweep to Da God. Once this game opens up, you can expect both teams to get cute. Da God will get another carry – bet on it.
Gronk 1st half TD YES (+600) – Can’t you just see these two connecting in the Super Bowl and the commentators drooling over themselves with being able to bring up their history? Because we can. This could for real be Gronk’s last go, and no chance Tommy doesn’t feed the machine.
Succop UNDER 1.5 FG’s made (+115) – The Bucs aren’t winning this game with Field Goals. They’re the underdog, and will take chances.
Lets throw some fucking darts - Game props
Chiefs score a rushing touchdown YES (-160) – With how often they run jet sweeps with the WR’s, and the fact that Pat can scramble, this is a good bet.
Chefs to score in all 4 quarters YES (+140)
Exactly 3 FG scored (+280)
Shortest TD OVER 1.5 yards (+135)
Bucs OVER 5.5 3rd down conversions
Bucs OVER 1.5 sacks
Last scoring play – BUCS TD Pass (+350)
Evans & Godwin to score a TD (+375)
Player to Score 1st - This bet is so much fun - start the game on the edge of your seat.
CEH +1200 - (shoulder shrug emoji)
Mahomes +2200 – So much value for a QB who runs.
Rojo +1600 – Cannonball who’s due to bust one.
Brate +2200; Gronk +2800 – Brady loves his TE’s in the red zone. Take both.
MVP
Of course you are going to want to take the QB’s, but heres some value plays, in the event everything doesn’t go according to plan.
Travis Kelce +1500 – This guy is such a fucking problem. Again, Tyreek crushed the Bucs last game, their defensive focus is on him first, and Kelce second. The battle between Kelce and the Bucs LB’s in coverage should be fantastic. That’s why we also like. . .
Devin White +7500 – Massive long shot. If the Bucs win this game, it’s going to be because of their defense. Tom looked his age in the second half of the Packers game, and the defense is the reason the Bucs are in the SB. Devin White has been the best LB this postseason, ride the hot hand.
Godwin +4000 – This is basically the Edelman play. No secret Brady loves hitting the short routes to the slot. If Brady reverts to Patriots Super Bowl form – he should be finding Godwin A LOT.
Antonio Brown +7000 – Why? Because Brady loves this fucking guy. No idea why. All we can tell you is it’s worth the pizza money. The world has been beyond whacky since 2020, so make sure you’ve got the whackiest ticket possible.
All the tea in China - Bucs +3 vs. Chiefs
Alright alright, and now for the meat and potatoes. Who’s winning this fucking thing?
Rematches aren’t that much fun when it comes to the Super Bowl. We know what happened when these two teams met in this exact same stadium. The Chiefs rolled and took their foot off the gas. The Bucs scored two late touchdowns to make it look way closer than it was. The reality is this – the Chiefs are playing their best football when it counts. Something we ultimately knew was coming all year, especially with how many unnecessary close games they found themselves in. Remember the Dolphins game? Chiefs went on a 30-3 run and still couldn’t cover. Andy Reid and Mahomes are probably going to win 4-5 Super Bowls when it’s all said and done. But…fuck that. We’ve (Brandon) been on the Bucs with the points in to back to back games, and we are staying the course. This game should live up to the hype. The Chiefs are missing both starting LT’s, the Bucs defense is playing lights out, and Brady is making the right throws at the right time. The Chiefs probably win, but buy the point and take the Bucs.
The Pick – Bucs +4 (buy 1 point)
AHHHHHHHHHAAAHHHHHAAHHAHHHHHHHH UNDA!
That’s right – the last under of the year. We think this lands right around the number which we see is 57 in most spots. Buy 2 points up to 59.
Thanks so much for joining us this year. We’ll be in touch (but not overbearing) for the big life moments till next season. NCAA Tourney (fuck Duke); NHL/NBA Playoffs, hell maybe even some futures for the 2021 NFL Season.
Best of luck to any and all your plays this Sunday.